The Official Los Angeles Angels 2023-2024 Hot Stove Offseason Thread

[Inside Pitch]

9 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Minasian selling same bag of magic beans to fans. Many good teams are going to be aggressive but does not mean a thing. Again a lot of talk and as I've said in past after all is said and done more will be said then done.

Dylan Hernandez is that you?

[Angelsfan1984]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

Dylan Hernandez is that you?

Someone definitely took a steamy and creamy in his cereal with a note that said, love perry.

[Angels 1961]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

Dylan Hernandez is that you?

What is different 

[Stradling]

4 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

The deal was for 20 years, $3 billion, starting in 2012.  I don't think it was a straight $150M per year, but using that as a rough yearly average, it's obviously a lot of money (some of it gets spread around to other teams in revenue sharing, but it's still a good chunk of cash).

I read awhile back (link?) that teams get to keep about 2/3 of their TV contract and the rest is used toward revenue sharing.  

[mmc]

 

[Stradling]

That’s a lot of pieces

[Angels 1961]

Trades will start to happen I want RP from Guardians

[Angels 1961]

James Karinchak

[Inside Pitch]

12 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

What is different 

Yes, Dylan.

[Inside Pitch]

7 hours ago, mmc said:

 

Did the Braves need to clear roster space?

[totdprods]

2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Did the Braves need to clear roster space?

Something tells me the Braves are in the mix for Shohei. Ohtani is such a student of the game it’s hard to imagine he wouldn’t be intrigued about playing in Atlanta the way they are structured currently. 

Moving those guys doesn’t really clear payroll now, but it is freeing up some fringe roster space, some money, and potential future money, allowing them to be replaced internally on cheap. Given that Atlanta isn’t a top payroll and doesn’t have the greatest financial flexibility, even marginal financial cuts could be a precursor to an Ohtani deal.

But yeah, aside from that I think this is them clearing the 40 to a degree.

Edited November 17, 2023 by totdprods

[DMVol]

3 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Did the Braves need to clear roster space?

Yes....the trade seems one sided on its face but they badly needed room.  Soroka likely is never going to be close to what he was, Shuster and Shewmake are good gets by the Sox, best part of the deal for them....Lopez is ok but nothing special....Bummer (I think) has plus stuff and the Braves seem to find guys with plus stuff who have underperformed elsewhere and get them on track.....PIerce Johnson this past year....

[Stradling]

I think the only way the Angels sign Ohtani is to upgrade the roster immediately. I highly doubt he is going to sign here and be the first piece the Angels sign. The only exception would be a package of him and Yamamoto where Ohtani is the first piece and Yamamoto is the 2nd piece.  So if we see the team upgrade in quick fashion, whether that is a trade for Glasnow, Burnes or Bieber, and a free agent signing of one of the other top pitchers, Snell or Gray or Stroman, then you can being to see it more as a real possibility that Ohtani would consider a return.  

[totdprods]

9 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I think the only way the Angels sign Ohtani is to upgrade the roster immediately. I highly doubt he is going to sign here and be the first piece the Angels sign. The only exception would be a package of him and Yamamoto where Ohtani is the first piece and Yamamoto is the 2nd piece.  So if we see the team upgrade in quick fashion, whether that is a trade for Glasnow, Burnes or Bieber, and a free agent signing of one of the other top pitchers, Snell or Gray or Stroman, then you can being to see it more as a real possibility that Ohtani would consider a return.  

I believe the opposite actually - I think if Ohtani is re-signing with the Angels, it's purely because he wants to be here and they offered perhaps the most money. 

Don't think there's a single move they can make that would convince him to suddenly see the Angels at being his best shot at winning - he either already believes that, believes they will keep trying to do that*, or he wants to be here win or lose.

*= would assume he will have some assurance or insight into at least what they're planning on doing this winter (and beyond) to help convince him that they club is still trying. 

 

Edited November 17, 2023 by totdprods

[Stradling]

6 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I believe the opposite actually - I think if Ohtani is re-signing with the Angels, it's purely because he wants to be here and they offered perhaps the most money. 

Don't think there's a single move they can make that would convince him to suddenly see the Angels at being his best shot at winning - he either already believes that, believes they will keep trying to do that*, or he wants to be here win or lose.

*= would assume he will have some assurance or insight into at least what they're planning on doing this winter (and beyond) to help convince him that they club is still trying. 

 

He and Trout have received assurances before, Trout has spoke of them in the past.  He may want to be here, but that means he wants to WIN here.  There really isn’t a scenario in my head where he is the first domino to drop for the Angels off season.  I guess the only exception I could see is if he signed a long term deal with multiple opt-outs early on in the contract. 

[Stradling]

 

[Erstad Grit]

5 minutes ago, Stradling said:

He and Trout have received assurances before, Trout has spoke of them in the past.  He may want to be here, but that means he wants to WIN here.  There really isn’t a scenario in my head where he is the first domino to drop for the Angels off season.  I guess the only exception I could see is if he signed a long term deal with multiple opt-outs early on in the contract. 

I disagree as well. I think angels will have a completely different plan if Ohtani leaves vs he stays. 

Hopefully Ohtani makes a decision early so angels would have time to reallocate their budget. Worst scenario is angels hold onto their 500 million chip and after everyone signs Ohtani leaves. 

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Erstad Grit said:

I disagree as well. I think angels will have a completely different plan if Ohtani leaves vs he stays. 

Hopefully Ohtani makes a decision early so angels would have time to reallocate their budget. Worst scenario is angels hold onto their 500 million chip and after everyone signs Ohtani leaves. 

Well in my scenario, even if Ohtani leaves the roster is upgraded.  

[totdprods]

6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

He and Trout have received assurances before, Trout has spoke of them in the past.  He may want to be here, but that means he wants to WIN here.  There really isn’t a scenario in my head where he is the first domino to drop for the Angels off season.  I guess the only exception I could see is if he signed a long term deal with multiple opt-outs early on in the contract. 

Or again, if he just wants to be here (coupled with some assurance at least that they aren't going to go into a deep rebuild, which has never seemed to be on the table).

His chosen to be here once already over all those places. The only difference now is 1) NL teams have a DH and 2) he's seen the Angels fail each season. Aside from that though, nothing is different. They may fit his geographical preference, they still at least feign effort to constantly contend, they gave him the freedom to be himself, and they've offered plenty of comfort and privacy. All of that might be enough, even with just lip service about winning. 

I also think the fact he cannot pitch in 2024 - and that the long-term vision of that is murkier - really put a lot of other teams into question about they'd be willing to invest. Put it the other way, if Shohei was a free agent now and hadn't been coming from the Angels, he'd almost exactly be the type of FA with copious risk that they'd be 'all-in' on. 

If Ohtani re-signs here, I think it'll be because he 1) wants to be here above all else and 2) Arte ponied up a massive offer, in which case he may be treating him as that mythical 'special player' whose salary is almost independent of luxury tax and payroll. Arte knows what revenue Ohtani brings in as well as anybody at this point.

[Erstad Grit]

25 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Well in my scenario, even if Ohtani leaves the roster is upgraded.  

So you think angels have room to significantly add to payroll and retain Ohtani? 

[greginpsca]

6 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

So you think angels have room to significantly add to payroll and retain Ohtani? 

No

 

[Stradling]

13 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

So you think angels have room to significantly add to payroll and retain Ohtani? 

Of course they do.  Will they use that room, I have no idea.  

[Stradling]

38 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Or again, if he just wants to be here (coupled with some assurance at least that they aren't going to go into a deep rebuild, which has never seemed to be on the table).

His chosen to be here once already over all those places. The only difference now is 1) NL teams have a DH and 2) he's seen the Angels fail each season. Aside from that though, nothing is different. They may fit his geographical preference, they still at least feign effort to constantly contend, they gave him the freedom to be himself, and they've offered plenty of comfort and privacy. All of that might be enough, even with just lip service about winning. 

I also think the fact he cannot pitch in 2024 - and that the long-term vision of that is murkier - really put a lot of other teams into question about they'd be willing to invest. Put it the other way, if Shohei was a free agent now and hadn't been coming from the Angels, he'd almost exactly be the type of FA with copious risk that they'd be 'all-in' on. 

If Ohtani re-signs here, I think it'll be because he 1) wants to be here above all else and 2) Arte ponied up a massive offer, in which case he may be treating him as that mythical 'special player' whose salary is almost independent of luxury tax and payroll. Arte knows what revenue Ohtani brings in as well as anybody at this point.

So if Ohtani intended to resign, because he likes it here, two things, why wouldn’t he just sign before free agency, and two, wouldn’t it benefit him to tell the team to upgrade the roster before he re-signs?  

[totdprods]

35 minutes ago, Stradling said:

So if Ohtani intended to resign, because he likes it here, two things, why wouldn’t he just sign before free agency, and two, wouldn’t it benefit him to tell the team to upgrade the roster before he re-signs?  

For the former, a couple things - could be that he simply did not want to talk extension during the season, as most players prefer, and he wanted to use 2023 to 1) gauge the Angels for one more season and keep his options open and 2) while I don't think money is his primary motivator, another season like he had (or was having until his injury) was only going to increase what he'd make. Agents and MLBPA also have some indirect influence here. I do think the injury has the potential to have changed that calculus, but it happened so late in the year it wasn't as quick and easy to just whip an extension up, for both team and player. 

For the latter, I would again think that he'd be hearing what he's been hearing all along, and he's either okay with it at this point, or believes it. If they say they'll spend money still after signing him, there isn't any reason that couldn't be true. "We're going to sign you to this deal, and we're not going to stop. We have xx amount to spend, or we're targeting these players or this this is out plan. We think re-signing you will help draw talent." It really boils down less to what we think and more to how much Shohei trusts the org and their word, and how much weight that really carries to him versus just comfort of being in the same place a shitload of money. 

I don't think it really means anything, but we've heard murmurs that Ohtani might sign relatively soon, before the Winter Meetings. Given how the Angels work quietly, how quick Perry works, and his injury situation, I think this tilts things towards the Angels favor. I don't think they're the favorite. I don't think it's likely. But signing this early in the winter fits with the Angels more. He still will have had time to be wooed by teams, but if it happens within the span of one month that seems to shrink the options a bit. Have also read that Ohtani has sought privacy and I think even saw somewhere that if any teams let any hint of talks out, it would count negatively towards said team.

 

Put more briefly, I think when Ohtani tore his UCL, the odds of him re-upping with the Halos improved dramatically and what might have been longshot changed quickly in September. Remaining in Anaheim, where he is comfortable and familiar, while he rehabs for two years before re-entering the market could be in his best interest. A big deal with an opt-out, or even a highly surprising 2-3 year deal with a crazy AAV, all became likelier after he had elbow surgery and the Angels odds improved. I don't think that's the likeliest scenario at all. I just think that scenario became more realistic than it had been in July. Aligns with Ron, and could align with Arte deciding not to sell. Maybe he's about to go Seidler/Illitch/Texas/Lerner and spend like crazy to try and win in the next 2-3 years.

Edited November 17, 2023 by totdprods

[Stradling]

@Jeff Fletcher do you expect today to be a busy day for the Angels?