Feinsand: Angels are “very interested” in Blake Snell

[Angels 1961]

22 minutes ago, HBAngel13 said:

I submit the following as Exhibit A:

Pujols

Hamilton

Wells

Upton

Cozart

Rendon

Thats a murderers row of futility.  It obviously hampered the club from making other moves to improve.

Was Vernon Wells a trade? They did dump Cozart on Giants with a prospect.

[totdprods]

C’mon @Stradling you know it’s not that absolute. 
 

###
 

The Angels have spent the last decade-plus walking the thinnest margin of error because of this fervent thirst to win now for Troutani and it’s let us to this constant state of organizational stress and unrealistic expectations year in, year out, and signing Snell feels like it would be an extension of that MO. All GMs have fallen prey to this mandate (see mmc I can point the finger at Arte) and each have dropped the ball in their own way, be it overspending, signing the wrong FAs, trading away the farm, bad luck, or all of the above. 

This org is afforded a fresh start right now. There’s a very promising young core developing and a good coaching staff to help prep them for the first decade of their careers. Trout and Rendon are perpetually injured. Ohtani is likely gone but if he is back, there’s enough uncertainty about his arm that he can’t be counted on 100%. The farm is bad, payroll still high, the last two WS winners are ahead of us, as is a third team. Broadcast money is in question. Arte’s future is in question. Expectations are low. I don’t see why the Angels should risk another huge investment in Snell that puts them back in a similar place for 6-7 years, especially when Snell’s likely best production will come in the murkiest of their years. 

The Angels don’t even need to rebuild or stand pat, but it would behoove to operate similarly to last winter. Spread the money around a few relatively safe investments that are tradeable (like Estevez and Drury still are, and guys like Stroman, Lugo, or Candelario could be) that aren’t so painful you couldn’t DFA them (like Giolito was or Anderson, Tyler or Tim, could be) and let the O’Hoppe, Neto, Detmers, Moniak core coalesce and gain experience without potentially crippling win-now expectations. And just for a year! I don’t think it takes much more than that. They could still compete in ‘24 with safe FA buys and good luck and health. They can be well-positioned to spend next winter when there’s a much deeper and more favorable FA class, and Rendon begins to enter DFA territory. It would be good for the org to just take a deep breath for one year and try to prep for the next decade instead of tunnel-visioning on one year for once. Signing Snell just sort of resets that clock and those expectations without really giving us anything more than what we had on the mound in Ohtani.

Edited December 2, 2023 by totdprods

[Dtwncbad]

27 minutes ago, HBAngel13 said:

I submit the following as Exhibit A:

Pujols

Hamilton

Wells

Upton

Cozart

Rendon

Thats a murderers row of futility.  It obviously hampered the club from making other moves to improve.

And the owners is richer than ever.  I guess you didn’t actually read what I wrote.  There is risk in every signing, and pretty much every story about what ends up a bad contracts is a free agent contract because they pay full retail open market price.

Let’s cut to the chase.  Do you think free agent contracts are always a bad idea?  If so, fine.

But to repeat my point it just seems silly to hear people worried about an expensive contract not working out.  Yeah, that’s the risk and it’s already built into the market, and it’s known by both parties going in.

Some fans act like they are advising an owner and GM that is from outer space and is brand new to the free agent process.

Anyway, you get the point or you don’t.

I am all for signing Snell and others. I really want Yamamoto.  The Angel need starting pitching and these are very good starting pitchers.

[Inside Pitch]

7 hours ago, Stradling said:

We’re at the point where we are absolutely under valuing Snell. He’s had one year where his ERA has been above league average. 

I won't speak for anyone else but what you've bolded out is what my concern is with the guy.

Nobody should be wasting time looking at his ERA.  Pitcher WAR isn't that great of a stat either, it's completely useless as a predictive stat but these are  Snell's WAR totals

16 - 1.8
17 - 1.8
18 - 4.7
19 - 2.7
20 - 0.6
21 - 2.1
22 - 3.6
23 - 4.1

Dude won two Cy Youngs and didn't break 5.0 fWAR in either season because he doesnt pitch deep into games.  Micheal Pineda who nobody here would have even considered as a 25-30 mil a year guy topped 2.6 fWAR 4 times in his first 8 seasons, he was over 3.2+ three times. 2.1 five times.  That's why I was always so gung ho on signing him he's what I'd term undervalued.

Patrick Sandoval last two seasons.

22 - 3.7
23 - 2.3

Again, that's the perspective I'm looking at. Snell last two years including a Cy Young season he's been less than a full win better per year than Sandoval.

If people think Snell isn't an elite pitcher, they are wrong.  If they think he can't dominate a game, they are wrong.  If they don't think he'd instantly be the most talented pitcher in the rotation they would again be wrong, but the one thing he won't be is a good value, because people vastly underrate the importance of innings.

Miles Mikolas had an ERA of 4.78 last year, he had a losing record, his K/9 was so below league average it's actually funny and yet he managed an fWAR of 3.1 almost on par with what Verlander did at 3.3.  Innings pitched are extremely valuable -- that's where Snell gets iffy.  People can yammer all they want about "playoff rotation" but they need to get innings to get them there first.

Snell is likely going to be an above average pitcher for at least 3-4 years, but people here talking about his Cy Youngs are overvaluing him based on awards and not actual value.

If you're fine paying front of the rotation, innings eater money for a 5 innings guy, Snell fits the description.  

I'll say it again, it's a pick your poison thing. 

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I won't speak for anyone else but what you've bolded out is what my concern is with the guy.

Nobody should be wasting time looking at his ERA.  Pitcher WAR isn't that great of a stat either, it's completely useless as a predictive stat but these are  Snell's WAR totals

16 - 1.8
17 - 1.8
18 - 4.7
19 - 2.7
20 - 0.6
21 - 2.1
22 - 3.6
23 - 4.1

Dude won two Cy Youngs and didn't break 5.0 fWAR in either season because he doesnt pitch deep into games.  Micheal Pineda who nobody here would have even considered as a 25-30 mil a year guy topped 2.6 fWAR 4 times in his first 8 seasons, he was over 3.2+ three times. 2.1 five times.  That's why I was always so gung ho on signing him he's what I'd term undervalued.

Patrick Sandoval last two seasons.

22 - 3.7
23 - 2.3

That's the perspective I'm looking at.  Snell last two years including a Cy Young season he's been less than a full win better per year than Sandoval.

If people think Snell isn't an elite pitcher they are wrong.  If they think he can't dominate a game, they are wrong.  If they don't think he'd instantly be the most talented pitcher in the rotation they would again be wrong, but the one thing he won't be is a good value, because people vastly underrate the importance of innings.

Miles Mikolas had an ERA of 4.78 last year, he had a losing record, his K/9 was so below league average it's actually funny and yet he managed an fWAR of 3.1 almost on par with what Verlander did at 3.3.  Innings pitched are extremely valuable -- that's where Snell gets iffy.  People can yammer all they want about "playoff rotation" but they need to get innings to get them there first.

Snell is likely going to be an above average pitcher for at least 3-4 years, but people here talking about his Cy Youngs are overvaluing him based on awards and not actual value.

If you're fine paying front of the rotation, innings eater money for a 5 innings guy, Snell fits the description.  

I'll say it again, it's a pick your poison thing.  

And I look at it as most pitchers are 5 inning pitchers these days. So I’d rather pay a guy for 5 really good innings rather than 5 2/3 mediocre innings. 
I have no misconception that he will be a value but that’s free agency. 

[totdprods]

I’ll still be excited if they sign Snell, because it’ll be a dopamine rush, but if they’re going with an win-now approach they’re gonna need a ton of good luck and a really extensive plan to address other needs to make this team competitive just in this division over the next couple years.

[Dtwncbad]

The most successful teams:

1). Have a system that produces quality cost-controlled major leagues as their core.

2). Use free agency (to get key players to supplement the core)
 

The least successful teams:

1). Have a bad system that does not produce quality cost-controlled major leaguers as their core.

2). Use free agency to (to just buy a winner)

Note #2 is the same both for successful teams and unsuccessful teams.

I think too many Angel fans are scorned by not winning during an era when the Angels did not produce enough cost-controlled quality major leaguers, and therefore are scarred by the expensive contracts not delivering a winner.  As a result, they think free agency is a recipe for failure.

It’s not.  The difference between winning and losing is the core your system produces.

The Angels right now have a pretty good core and it would be a waste of opportunity to not add free agent to that core.

Despite some free agent contracts “not working out” in the past, I think the smart, correct move right now is to go ahead and buy some players that are needed to fill holes.

Of course be careful.  But be carefully aggressive.

No, signing expensive free agents does not equal a bad plan.  The difference is whether or not you have a good enough core of quality, cost-controlled young players as a core.

 

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

And I look at it as most pitchers are 5 inning pitchers these days. So I’d rather pay a guy for 5 really good innings rather than 5 2/3 mediocre innings. 
I have no misconception that he will be a value but that’s free agency. 

Most pitcher's don't make 25+ Mil or require 6-7 years to sign.

He's a front line talent who lacks front line value -- that's the skinny. You argued he was being undervalued -- you likely meant people are underrating him which might be true.

Nobody should underrate him, but many of you guys are overvaluing him.

I genuinely don't give a shit what Arte pays so long as he spends what it takes to be competitive. My days of trying to find the best possible return on signings are behind me, they haven't ever done what I wanted and the times they did the exact opposite of what I did want went pretty much exactly how I expected.

I've reached the point where I'm hoping Arte just goes on a Mike Ilitch run in hopes of winning before he leaves the planet, because he isn't selling anytime soon.

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

I've reached the point where I'm hoping Arte just goes on a Mike Ilitch run in hopes of winning before he leaves the planet, because he isn't selling anytime soon.

This is the lone reason I still think re-signing Ohtani and some the next winter or two could be exciting. 

He has a finite amount of time left to win a WS, be it due to life or ownership, and he probably has a sense of what the org will be worth when it sells, either during his life or at his passing. Can't take money with ya. If he was gonna do that, should've done it years ago, but billionaires and their money...

[Dtwncbad]

10 minutes ago, totdprods said:

This is the lone reason I still think re-signing Ohtani and some the next winter or two could be exciting. 

Why wait until next winter?  Why?  That punts on the idea that this young core could be good this year.  That is wasting a year.

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, totdprods said:

This is the lone reason I still think re-signing Ohtani and some the next winter or two could be exciting. 

He has a finite amount of time left to win a WS, be it due to life or ownership, and he probably has a sense of what the org will be worth when it sells, either during his life or at his passing. Can't take money with ya. If he was gonna do that, should've done it years ago, but billionaires and their money...

I don't know that Arte cares about how people view him -- most guys who reach his level of wealth have an ego of some kind but no clue where Arte sits there.  But if legacy means anything his only way of being viewed as anything but a shortsighted owner who's meddling hurt his own cause is to maybe let the wallet fly open and spend the kind of "stupid money" that the Phillies owner was talking about a couple years back.
 

[Inside Pitch]

11 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Why wait until next winter?  Why?  That punts on the idea that this young core could be good this year.  That is wasting a year.

I fixed the weird quoting glitch for you so it reflects who you were responding to -- but since I got the notification that you were responding to me, I'll respond by saying I don't think he's talking about not spending this year, but rather he's saying that he thinks it might be fun to see Arte go on a multi-year spending run like Ilitch did in Detroit.

[totdprods]

15 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Why wait until next winter?  Why?  That punts in the idea that this young core could be good this year.  That is wasting a year.

I said next winter or two. Next year's FA class is better, deeper, has talent that's more favorable to SoCal IMO... 

My scenario if I was in a 'win-now' mode:

• Get a legit #2. Sign ERod to something like a 4/$80-90. Yamamoto is a maybe. 
• Sign an upside one-year arm gamble or an intriguing 'safe' 3/$30ish guy. Stroman at 2/$40m is a maybe.
• Add a semi-versatile, Drury-esque level of a proven bat. Candelario, Gurriel, trade candidate like Verdugo, Gleyber, Polanco
• Sign one other vet arm; Maton, Kimbrel, Smith. Akin to Estevez/Tepera/Loup money.
• Whatever money is left cheap vet RP depth a la Kolarek, Cishek, Watson. Cheap. Not Tepera/Loup money.

Most (not the ERod/Yamamota slot) of these are relatively tradeable guys (plus the dudes we have) at the deadline if things go south, to help rebuild some upper-level depth, perhaps enough to start making guys like Sandoval, Rengifo, Canning, or Ward truly expendable, if the few prospects on the farm aren't yet doing this.

Next winter, sign a top SP arm. Go for it. Burnes, Fried, Bieber, Glasnow, Buehler. Or Soto or Alonso if offense winds up being the need. Enough salary should be cleared from Estevez, Drury (or be relatively tradeable/salary dump-able) to help facilitate this. Not much else known to be needed at this time, provided the young core keeps trending the right way.

And if Arte truly wants to go Illitch and sign his mythical 'special player' in Ohtani, I argue that you could still do that and have room at DH/SP for him. Yeah, it'd lead to a payroll around $250m+ or something, but that's no longer unprecedented in MLB and we topped out around $220m last year. If he thinks he's got a 2-3 year window to try and make this work, here it is. Could give you a '25 rotation of Ohtani, Burnes, ERod, Detmers, and whoever is left of Sandoval, Canning, Silseth, the 3/$30m guy...

Edited December 2, 2023 by totdprods

[Inside Pitch]

Just now, totdprods said:

 

And if Arte truly wants to go Illitch and sign his mythical 'special player', I argue that you could still do that and have room at DH/SP for him. Yeah, it'd lead to a payroll around $250m+ or something, but that's no longer unprecedented in MLB and we topped out around $220m last year. If he thinks he's got a 2-3 year window to try and make this work, here it is. 

That's just it..  Arte would need to let go of his "spend on the right guy mantra" and switch to Ima spend on the guys it will take to get us blah blah blah.

He's not really done that since 2003 and the winter JD took over.

[totdprods]

Just now, Inside Pitch said:

That's just it..  Arte would need to let go of his "spend on the right guy mantra" and switch to Ima spend on the guys it will take to get us blah blah blah.

He's not really done that since 2003 and the winter JD took over.

So once every ten years or so...which would be...around now...

[Inside Pitch]

Just now, totdprods said:

So once every ten years or so...which would be...around now...

Keep your finger's crossed.   That Rendon blip looms large though....

[HBAngel13]

2 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

And the owners is richer than ever.  I guess you didn’t actually read what I wrote.  There is risk in every signing, and pretty much every story about what ends up a bad contracts is a free agent contract because they pay full retail open market price.

Let’s cut to the chase.  Do you think free agent contracts are always a bad idea?  If so, fine.

But to repeat my point it just seems silly to hear people worried about an expensive contract not working out.  Yeah, that’s the risk and it’s already built into the market, and it’s known by both parties going in.

Some fans act like they are advising an owner and GM that is from outer space and is brand new to the free agent process.

Anyway, you get the point or you don’t.

I am all for signing Snell and others. I really want Yamamoto.  The Angel need starting pitching and these are very good starting pitchers.

I did read what you wrote and understand your point - I just don’t agree.  My contention with Snell is that the risk isn’t worth the reward in my estimation for the exact reasons @Inside Pitch and @totdprods expounded on. 

Naturally I am in favor of free agents, but one has to be smart about it and big deals have to be evaluated in the context of the current payroll construction. We already have two mega-deals on the books.  If both those guys continue to be sidelined, we are essentially working with a $150M payroll to field an entire team.  Throw Ohtani in there and now you have $100M to work with.

That said I would consider guys like Soto and Yamamoto to be “safer” than someone like Snell due to age and their ceiling.  Snell has had some good years but we know what his ceiling is.  

Snell is good, sometimes very good, but he isn’t elite year in and year out.  I would prefer they spend the 7/200 MLB trade rumors pegged him for elsewhere.  If you see it differently, totally cool. 

 

 

[Mark68]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

And I look at it as most pitchers are 5 inning pitchers these days. So I’d rather pay a guy for 5 really good innings rather than 5 2/3 mediocre innings. 
I have no misconception that he will be a value but that’s free agency. 

This is why I prefer Yamamoto. He'll cost about the same as Snell (on an AAV basis), he's younger, and in the last three years in NPB, he has averaged 7 1/3 innings per start over 76 starts. 

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, Mark68 said:

This is why I prefer Yamamoto. He'll cost about the same as Snell (on an AAV basis), he's younger, and in the last three years in NPB, he has averaged 7 1/3 innings per start over 76 starts. 

And he’s never done it in the majors and I can’t remember an Asian pitcher not having arm troubles in the states. 

[Dtwncbad]

7 minutes ago, HBAngel13 said:

Snell has had some good years but we know what his ceiling is.  

Snell is good, sometimes very good, but he isn’t elite year in and year out.

And he will be priced as such (compared to some who is elite every year).

I am not accusing YOU of this, but it sure seems like Angel fans moan about the cost of imperfect free agent because they are not elite and yet also don’t want to sign elite players either because they are too expensive.

Lots of players can help the Angels.  Free agents are expensive.  It is fair to argue that free agents are likely to be the least efficiently paid players on your team.  But that’s just what free agency is.

This is not an argument specifically for Snell.  He can help the Angels and I assume they will negotiate properly in exploring him.  I can’t find a way to say the Angels should avoid Blake Snell when the team needs starting pitching.

The last thing I want to see is “pass” on guys like Snell and then have the team run a bunch of garbage out there (we saved money!!!!!) and predictable lose 90 games.

[totdprods]

Plenty of risk with Yamamoto but the age makes it a little more palatable and worth gambling on. The deal should also be longer than Snell’s over better ‘prime’ years so if you lose some time to injury you have at least a better shot at recouping some of that investment, over a broader period of time that’s likelier to capture his best years. Snell’s are real close to now or in the past already.

[HBAngel13]

9 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Lots of players can help the Angels.  Free agents are expensive.  It is fair to argue that free agents are likely to be the least efficiently paid players on your team.  But that’s just what free agency is.

Very well said.  The club has many needs so they need to be shrewd with their dollars so they aren’t bottlenecked like they were in the 2010’s.  That’s my main contention.

Personally I don’t think they are ready for prime time in 2024 unless they make multiple high impact moves. I just don’t think they have the payroll room to fill all the holes.  2025 is the year I think they could really surprise if the young guys have a solid development curve. 

I want to see this team get back to perennial contention vs pushing hard for the current season at the expense of the future.

[Mark68]

18 minutes ago, Stradling said:

And he’s never done it in the majors and I can’t remember an Asian pitcher not having arm troubles in the states. 

Kikuchi (so far), Hasegawa (granted, he wasn't a starter), Ohka (he did have surgery after being hit in the elbow, but that's not "arm trouble"), Jae Weong Seo...there are some who had one injury stint due to arm/ligament/shoulder issues.

 

Of course, do the Angels need an Asian pitcher to have arm troubles? That seems part & parcel with being an Angels pitcher. 

[Dtwncbad]

49 minutes ago, HBAngel13 said:

I just don’t think they have the payroll room to fill all the holes.

I will let the people paying the salaries decide that.  Maybe I am wrong, but at this point in Moreno’s ownership, I believe the “payroll room” can be quite different year to year depending primarily on two things (and the relationship between the two):

1). His personal opinion of how effective the spending would be on actual wins and losses

2). How long he intends to keep the team.

It doesn’t seem all that unrealistic to see them spend a lot on this team should Moreno view the next 1-3 years as his chosen time to go for it.

I have no idea what they are willing to spend right now and I don’t believe the long term history of what they have spent in the past is necessarily a reliable indicator. . . because we don’t really know how long Moreno wants to keep the team and/or how thirsty he is to win immediately.

[HBAngel13]

2 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

I will let the people paying the salaries decide that.  Maybe I am wrong, but at this point in Moreno’s ownership, I believe the “payroll room” can be quite different year to year depending primarily on two things (and the relationship between the two):

1). His personal opinion of how effective the spending would be on actual wins and losses

2). How long he intends to keep the team.

It doesn’t seem all that unrealistic to see them spend a lot on this team should Moreno view the next 1-3 years as his chosen time to go for it.

I have no idea what they are willing to spend right now and I don’t believe the long term history of what they have spent in the past is necessarily a reliable indicator. . . because we don’t really know how long Moreno wants to keep the team and/or how thirsty he is to win immediately.

I basically agree with your sentiments. Moreno has the ability and capacity to swim in the deep end, but he has always stuck to his preset budget. We have seen this since the beginning of his ownership, so until he deviates I will count myself as skeptical. All the waiver wire maneuvering last year (which I thought was shrewd despite the optics) tells me that the luxury tax is still an impediment. 
 

The “I will exceed the luxury tax” quote has got to be around 10 yrs old at this point.  I’m not sure that sentiment still applies?