Angel Trade Targets

[Revad]

7 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Alternately from the 10M, we could send $9M for the next three years (3 each year) and Anderson back.

If Artie stays under the luxury tax this trade works.  Cards pick up this year’s salary and we include Anderson in the deal and pay down the successive years to even out the Cards picking up this year’s tab.

[Hubs]

5 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Was wondering myself if Anderson could be swapped out somewhere. The contract isn’t prohibitively horrible and he’s pitched well of late. Seems like a guy Tampa would take and turn into a Cy candidate, and they have a need in the rotation. St. Louis may have interest too. Would kinda be nice to free up that rotation spot so we’re not obliged to trot him out.

St. Louis's pitching was downright awful to begin the season, and they have no depth in the upper minors. They have too many OF, so Adell isn't really a fit, but they could move one to 1B, and one to DH and be a good team next year.

Quero, Anderson, and Bush is a good package to get Flaherty and Goldy back, and the Cardinals would have salary flexibility to improve as well. The Angels could also probably get one of their relievers back in such a package.

[totdprods]

Not convinced that the tax is a concern to Arte. I don’t expect it or for him to go ham, but do think there’s an ‘All In’ vibe right now. This could be the last hurrah and he could still sell if Ohtani walks or the Angels flop again. Tax wouldn’t mean squat to him after this investment. 
 

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Hubs said:

St. Louis's pitching was downright awful to begin the season, and they have no depth in the upper minors. They have too many OF, so Adell isn't really a fit, but they could move one to 1B, and one to DH and be a good team next year.

Quero, Anderson, and Bush is a good package to get Flaherty and Goldy back, and the Cardinals would have salary flexibility to improve as well. The Angels could also probably get one of their relievers back in such a package.

Goldschmidt’s salary next year also matches up well with money expiring from Renfroe, Loup and Urshela. 

Depending on how they’re structured, re-signing Flaherty and Ohtani still could fit with the money Ohtani and Anderson we’re committed to this season.

[Hubs]

46 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Goldschmidt’s salary next year also matches up well with money expiring from Renfroe, Loup and Urshela. 

Depending on how they’re structured, re-signing Flaherty and Ohtani still could fit with the money Ohtani and Anderson we’re committed to this season.

I do feel that if they resign Ohtani, they will keep him in the 35-40M range the next three years because Rendon is due that amount over the next three, but then we're looking at 50M per...

 

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Hubs said:

I do feel that if they resign Ohtani, they will keep him in the 35-40M range the next three years because Rendon is due that amount over the next three, but then we're looking at 50M per...

 

And I also think ultimately Arte won’t care too much, as I still suspect he sells sooner rather than later. 

Hell, wouldn’t be surprised if one aspect of his decision to not sell was motivated by 1) winning and 2) therefore retaining Ohtani, cementing his ownership legacy and potentially boosting the value of the org even more when it hit market again.

[Hubs]

5 minutes ago, totdprods said:

And I also think ultimately Arte won’t care too much, as I still suspect he sells sooner rather than later. 

Hell, wouldn’t be surprised if one aspect of his decision to not sell was motivated by 1) winning and 2) therefore retaining Ohtani, cementing his ownership legacy and potentially boosting the value of the org even more when it hit market again.

I think he will sell 25-75% of the team soon too...but he's not gonna sell 100%

[totdprods]

4 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I think he will sell 25-75% of the team soon too...but he's not gonna sell 100%

Either way, it’s sort of an unknown variable on how it plays out or what it affects.

[nando714]

If the next 6 games go well (Pirates / Tigers)

and they end up let’s say 2-3 games back of the final wc spot 

they could be buyers 

time will tell

[totdprods]

I know they aren't ahead of us, and haven't been much of a threat all season, but I don't see how Seattle could do anything other than sell at the deadline. Jerry loves trading too much and that team, particularly the offense, is in rough shape. I imagine that will be one less competitor down the stretch. 

Seeing New York this past series, and the state of their IL, I really can't see how they stick in the race. They don't have much to buy with, and if they could, I don't see how they'd get enough to compete with Tampa, Toronto, and Baltimore. The AL East is a bloodbath. Tampa is strong as usual but they've taken a beating with injuries. In fact, both NYY and Tampa have a worse record than us over the last 30 games. Can Baltimore sustain? I think so, but there's a lot of inexperience and youth on that club which could fade as season continues on. Boston is in the mix but, much like Seattle, frankly should consider selling. I've given up on thinking Texas will have something bring them back down, and Houston continues to power through despite injuries and a bad offense...

It's tight now, but I do think the logjam for the AL WC race could thin out. 

Edited July 20, 2023 by totdprods

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

On 7/19/2023 at 10:21 AM, totdprods said:

And rotation spot(s) #5-6, more from a roster flexibility and depth point than a talent point. 

I truly believe if the Angels can at least maintain where they’re at until the break, adding something like Flaherty/Giolito (ideal, but maybe even a Carlos Carrasco or Drew Smyly or Lorenzen) and a solid vet reliever a la Joe Kelly or a Brad Hand or Chris Stratton could be plenty if everyone stays healthy, and our injured guys come back quickly. Shouldn’t break the farm. 

This team has enough talent to pull off something like a 25-8 run somewhere when all things are clicking, even with a tough schedule.

Neto returning could be the spark we need. His injury and the effect it had reminded me of when we fell apart when DiSar went down in ‘95? I can’t quite remember. I was 9.

Smyly has been getting lit up!

[Angel Oracle]

6 hours ago, Hubs said:

I do feel that if they resign Ohtani, they will keep him in the 35-40M range the next three years because Rendon is due that amount over the next three, but then we're looking at 50M per...

 

I can see the opposite, pay him more up front, when he can still do his best at both pitching and hitting.

$60 million per year for 2024-2026, then $46 million per year after that.

Even going over the tax threshold from 2024-2026 would only incur the stronger penalties for 2026.

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Smyly has been getting lit up!

I know it seems kinda counterintuitive, but I think the Angels adding a proven vet - even one that’s not so hot - could have a significant impact on the team just by stabilizing the back of the rotation, allowing some guys to lock in to specific roles, and cutting bait with Davidson or the rotating spots for #6 SP and last relief spot. 

Sure, adding a really good SP would be ideal, but at what cost? Someone like a Smyly, Carrasco, Greinke, Lynn, could likely come very cheaply and give us at least more of a known quantity at back of rotation. Someone who, if they do get clubbed around, can wear it for 5-6 innings and not burn the pen. With Bachman and Joyce still out, it lets Barria and potentially a healthy Suarez? stick in the pen. Bumps Davidson. Maybe they pitch well enough that Silseth could be a stretch-run/postseason pen arm if there isn’t a clear rotation opening for him.

For the record, I hope they aim way higher, but there’s value in marginal upgrades too.

Edited July 21, 2023 by totdprods

[Angels 1961]

26 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I know it seems kinda counterintuitive, but I think the Angels adding a proven vet - even one that’s not so hot - could have a significant impact on the team just by stabilizing the back of the rotation, allowing some guys to lock in to specific roles, and cutting bait with Davidson or the rotating spots for #6 SP and last relief spot. 

Sure, adding a really good SP would be ideal, but at what cost? Someone like a Smyly, Carrasco, Greinke, Lynn, could likely come very cheaply and give us at least more of a known quantity at back of rotation. Someone who, if they do get clubbed around, can wear it for 5-6 innings and not burn the pen. With Bachman and Joyce still out, it lets Barria and potentially a healthy Suarez? stick in the pen. Bumps Davidson. Maybe they pitch well enough that Silseth could be a stretch-run/postseason pen arm if there isn’t a clear rotation opening for him.

For the record, I hope they aim way higher, but there’s value in marginal upgrades too.

Lorenzen

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

6 hours ago, totdprods said:

I know it seems kinda counterintuitive, but I think the Angels adding a proven vet - even one that’s not so hot - could have a significant impact on the team just by stabilizing the back of the rotation, allowing some guys to lock in to specific roles, and cutting bait with Davidson or the rotating spots for #6 SP and last relief spot. 

Sure, adding a really good SP would be ideal, but at what cost? Someone like a Smyly, Carrasco, Greinke, Lynn, could likely come very cheaply and give us at least more of a known quantity at back of rotation. Someone who, if they do get clubbed around, can wear it for 5-6 innings and not burn the pen. With Bachman and Joyce still out, it lets Barria and potentially a healthy Suarez? stick in the pen. Bumps Davidson. Maybe they pitch well enough that Silseth could be a stretch-run/postseason pen arm if there isn’t a clear rotation opening for him.

For the record, I hope they aim way higher, but there’s value in marginal upgrades too.

Then I would go with Lynn, Lorenzen, Clevinger, Kaprielian. No more Lefty Starters.

Smyly last 4 starts:

6 innings 5 earned - Nats

4 innings 4 earned - yanks

3.2 innings 3 earned - brewers

3.2 innings 7 earned - phillies

[Hubs]

16 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

I can see the opposite, pay him more up front, when he can still do his best at both pitching and hitting.

$60 million per year for 2024-2026, then $46 million per year after that.

Even going over the tax threshold from 2024-2026 would only incur the stronger penalties for 2026.

That makes sense in theory, but it is hardly ever done that way, and the union wants to see contracts increasing every year instead of dropping. Plus, the Angels have Rendon at $38 M for the next three years, and then will have other commitments...

I can see something like 38.5, 40.5, 42.5, 46, 46, 48, 48, 48, 52, 52, 54, 56.   12 years $571.5M

 

[Angel Oracle]

15 minutes ago, Hubs said:

That makes sense in theory, but it is hardly ever done that way, and the union wants to see contracts increasing every year instead of dropping. Plus, the Angels have Rendon at $38 M for the next three years, and then will have other commitments...

I can see something like 38.5, 40.5, 42.5, 46, 46, 48, 48, 48, 52, 52, 54, 56.   12 years $571.5M

 

If he is willing to do that, go for it.

Could even keep them under the tax threshold through 2024, and then going over in 2025 and 2026 doesn’t cost them much in penalties before freeing up Rendon’s payroll slot.

[Angelsfan1984]

1 minute ago, Angel Oracle said:

If he is willing to do that, go for it.

Could even keep them under the tax threshold through 2024, and then going over in 2025 and 2026 doesn’t cost them much in penalties before freeing up Rendon’s payroll slot.

I think Rendons quote the other day "i'm not here" is going to summarize the rest of his tenure with the Angels. 

[Hubs]

1 minute ago, Angel Oracle said:

If he is willing to do that, go for it.

Could even keep them under the tax threshold through 2024, and then going over in 2025 and 2026 doesn’t cost them much in penalties before freeing up Rendon’s payroll slot.

 

24 minutes ago, Hubs said:

That makes sense in theory, but it is hardly ever done that way, and the union wants to see contracts increasing every year instead of dropping. Plus, the Angels have Rendon at $38 M for the next three years, and then will have other commitments...

I can see something like 38.5, 40.5, 42.5, 46, 46, 48, 48, 48, 52, 52, 54, 56.   12 years $571.5M

 

Actually revising to 38.5, 40.5, 42.5, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54 with a $5M signing bonus.  12 @ 576.5. $150M more than the Highest paid player in baseball, and an AAV 5M more than the highest pitcher and 8M more than the highest position player.

[Angel Oracle]

13 minutes ago, Hubs said:

 

Actually revising to 38.5, 40.5, 42.5, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54 with a $5M signing bonus.  12 @ 576.5. $150M more than the Highest paid player in baseball, and an AAV 5M more than the highest pitcher and 8M more than the highest position player.

Or just to age 40 (11 years) for $522.5 million?  

Still $96 million more than Trout got and still $4.5 million AAV more than the highest paid pitcher and $7.5 million AAV more than the highest paid position player.

[HBAngel13]

If Angels decide to buy, how about Bednar in a package centered around Ward + prospects?  Bednar is controllable through 2025 and would form a nice 1-2 punch with Estevez.  PIT gets an productive, everyday OF with similar control for a reliever.

[Stradling]

Should they consider a Justin Verlander trade if the Mets become sellers?  He’d have to waive his no trade clause and he has negative trade value but it’s the ultimate risk reward. He makes $43 million a year through next year with a 140 innings pitched vesting option for 2025.  The prospect cost would be virtually nothing. 

[TroutField]

34 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Should they consider a Justin Verlander trade if the Mets become sellers?  He’d have to waive his no trade clause and he has negative trade value but it’s the ultimate risk reward. He makes $43 million a year through next year with a 140 innings pitched vesting option for 2025.  The prospect cost would be virtually nothing. 

I’d be all over that if I was Perry. Also insurance in the rotation of Shohei leaves. 

[Dtwncbad]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

Should they consider a Justin Verlander trade if the Mets become sellers?  He’d have to waive his no trade clause and he has negative trade value but it’s the ultimate risk reward. He makes $43 million a year through next year with a 140 innings pitched vesting option for 2025.  The prospect cost would be virtually nothing. 

Yes.  We all assume the Angels want to keep Ohtani so this move would show him the teams interest in competing, and if the cost wasn’t too high in prospects, it would be a favorable trade (relatively speaking) in terms of leaving the Angels in good condition to continue to compete in years to come.

The Angels could be WS ring dangerous with Ohtani and Verlander leading the rotation. 

Edited July 22, 2023 by Dtwncbad

[TroutField]

On 7/20/2023 at 6:39 PM, totdprods said:

I know it seems kinda counterintuitive, but I think the Angels adding a proven vet - even one that’s not so hot - could have a significant impact on the team just by stabilizing the back of the rotation, allowing some guys to lock in to specific roles, and cutting bait with Davidson or the rotating spots for #6 SP and last relief spot. 

Sure, adding a really good SP would be ideal, but at what cost? Someone like a Smyly, Carrasco, Greinke, Lynn, could likely come very cheaply and give us at least more of a known quantity at back of rotation. Someone who, if they do get clubbed around, can wear it for 5-6 innings and not burn the pen. With Bachman and Joyce still out, it lets Barria and potentially a healthy Suarez? stick in the pen. Bumps Davidson. Maybe they pitch well enough that Silseth could be a stretch-run/postseason pen arm if there isn’t a clear rotation opening for him.

For the record, I hope they aim way higher, but there’s value in marginal upgrades too.

You just explained Tyler Anderson to a T.