Tamin’s Bullpen Matrix

[AngelsLakersFan]

There is nothing wrong with the bullpen matrix or the lack of flexibility. The problem is the bullpen sucks ass.

If you look at last nights game and say the problem was that only our shitty relievers were available then you are missing the forest for the trees.

[greginpsca]

1 hour ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

There is nothing wrong with the bullpen matrix or the lack of flexibility. The problem is the bullpen sucks ass.

If you look at last nights game and say the problem was that only our shitty relievers were available then you are missing the forest for the trees.

The really sad part is that just over half of the games so far have been against Oakland, Seattle, Washington, and KC.  A good team would sweep the games on this homestand 7-0. 

[Revad]

7 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

The really sad part is that just over half of the games so far have been against Oakland, Seattle, Washington, and KC.  A good team would sweep the games on this homestand 7-0. 

Win the next 3 and go 5-2, that wouldn’t be so bad.  I think the SP for the rest of the series goes Canning, Sandoval and Ohtani.

[Jeff Fletcher]

4 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

By the way, you can go to the roster resource depth charts on Fangraphs and scroll down to the bullpen and go to the right and you'll see a little chart of recent reliever usage, if you want to see how other teams do it.

I just flipped through the Astros and Dodgers and didn't see any 3-out-of-4's or really even 3/5's.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/dodgers

I went through all the teams and found 11 instances of a pitcher working 3 of 4 days in the last week. 
 

So I think it’s fair to say avoiding that is pretty much the industry standard. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

32 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I went through all the teams and found 11 instances of a pitcher working 3 of 4 days in the last week. 
 

So I think it’s fair to say avoiding that is pretty much the industry standard. 

I've been watching the team, and it's hard for me to understand why they don't just use Ohtani in every inning. 

[BTH]

43 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I went through all the teams and found 11 instances of a pitcher working 3 of 4 days in the last week. 
 

So I think it’s fair to say avoiding that is pretty much the industry standard. 

My general gripe with the matrix isn't that relievers should be pitching 3 out of 4 days. As you showed, that's an unrealistic expectation. And I'm not expecting that.

 

I just think that there should be occasional exceptions. Teams don't come back from a 7-2 deficit that often. I think using your closer for 3 of 4 days in that spot should be acceptable.

 

It goes back to the whole idea that there needs to be a balance, and that it can't be 100% analytics/data or 100% eye-test/feel/or whatever you want to call it.

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I've been watching the team, and it's hard for me to understand why they don't just use Ohtani in every inning. 

Been thinking the same. The odds are he's gone next year anyway. We may as well destroy him like a car we know is getting repossessed.

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 minute ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Been thinking the same. The odds are he's gone next year anyway. We may as well destroy him like a car we know is getting repossessed.

Japanese cars run forever though

[ten ocho recon scout]

Just now, AngelsLakersFan said:

Japanese cars run forever though

Fuck, good point.

Let's steal his catalytic converter then. They're actually the easiest to do that to.

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 minute ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Fuck, good point.

Let's steal his catalytic converter then. They're actually the easiest to do that to.

We're keeping the homerun helmet!!

[ten ocho recon scout]

5 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

We're keeping the homerun helmet!!

I like that was the literal cheapest gimmick we did to try and get him to stay. 

Next we'll do one of those dragon things you see in Chinatown parades... and piss him off even more.

[totdprods]

4 hours ago, greginpsca said:

The really sad part is that just over half of the games so far have been against Oakland, Seattle, Washington, and KC.  A good team would sweep the games on this homestand 7-0. 

Actually a good team still probably loses 1, maybe 2 of those even, on that homestand. 5-2 is still a .714 winning percentage, which would easily be best in baseball behind Tampa.

I know there’s more to it than that, but, a 5-2 homestand here is perfectly reasonable.

Choking those three games as hard as they did - last night, the KC game, and Toronto - and losing 3/4 to a pretty mediocre Boston team - are really the biggest blights on the year so far, but typical for any team. Maybe ours are just concentrated right now. 

[stormngt]

12 hours ago, Trendon said:

It’s a self-inflicted problem that they aren’t trying to address.

They’re keeping Loup and Barría on the roster. And they didn’t option Warren to get a fresh arm. Going by the way they operate, he’d be down yesterday and today. He has options, yet they kept him up. If they optioned him and brought up a fresh arm, they could’ve had a shorter leash with Suarez or been able to use Loup without using the “last guy in the pen.”

Barria maybe the most under appreciated pitcher the Angels history.

He had a War of .2 entering  and 123 era+ last night's game.  Even after last night's meltdown he is still +.1 War and has ERA + of 114.

Four of his 6 years he has had an ERA + of over 100.  A 5th year he was at 97. He currently has a career WAR of 6.6.

He is not a great pitcher but he certainly doesn't suck.  They need to keep him in his role.

 

 

[TroutField]

1 hour ago, stormngt said:

Barria maybe the most under appreciated pitcher the Angels history.

He had a War of .2 entering  and 123 era+ last night's game.  Even after last night's meltdown he is still +.1 War and has ERA + of 114.

Four of his 6 years he has had an ERA + of over 100.  A 5th year he was at 97. He currently has a career WAR of 6.6.

He is not a great pitcher but he certainly doesn't suck.  They need to keep him in his role.

 

 

I wanted to punch him in the face after last night but you’re right. He’s solid 

[stormngt]

1 minute ago, TroutField said:

I wanted to punch him in the face after last night but you’re right. He’s solid 

"I wanted to punch him in the face last night"

Well said!

[Revad]

Barria has started to change roles with Davidson also in the BP.  If Suarez and Davidson switch roles I guess Suarez becomes the long man in the pen so Barria moves toward the later innings.  I’m not saying Barria will become that but it’s so nice to have a reliable multi-inning guy.

[Jeff Fletcher]

13 hours ago, Trendon said:

I just think that there should be occasional exceptions.

There are. Estévez already did it once and last night Moore did it. I think Quijada did it once too. 

[BTH]

10 hours ago, stormngt said:

Barria maybe the most under appreciated pitcher the Angels history.

He had a War of .2 entering  and 123 era+ last night's game.  Even after last night's meltdown he is still +.1 War and has ERA + of 114.

Four of his 6 years he has had an ERA + of over 100.  A 5th year he was at 97. He currently has a career WAR of 6.6.

He is not a great pitcher but he certainly doesn't suck.  They need to keep him in his role.

His FIP and peripherals over that time indicate that he’s been lucky and that his actual performance is way worse.

Look no further than Monday night. It not for Ward’s catch, he gave up a grand slam.  

He has a career 4.86 FIP, which is 11% worse than average.

[BTH]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

There are. Estévez already did it once and last night Moore did it. I think Quijada did it once too. 

Perhaps.

But Moore hadn’t done it when I submitted my post, I don’t see Quijada having done it, and the one time Estévez did it was in a real emergency situation when they had used up every other available reliever.

I think they might’ve made an exception last night because of an adjustment after Monday’s disaster. Otherwise, why wouldn’t they have just used Estévez on Monday?

His workload had been similar to Moore’s, and Moore had gone more than one inning a couple of times, while Estévez hadn’t.

Edited April 26, 2023 by Trendon

[Stradling]

Maybe it is as simple as Moore and Estevez are two completely different types of pitchers.  Estevez is more of an max effort type of pitcher, where as Moore is more of a pitcher that needs to locate and, while not finesse, certainly not max effort.

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, Trendon said:

His FIP and peripherals over that time indicate that he’s been lucky and that his actual performance is way worse.

Look no further than Monday night. It not for Ward’s catch, he gave up a grand slam.  

He has a career 4.86 FIP, which is 11% worse than average.

This is a problem with stat geeks.  Barria has been effective for 5 out of 6 years.  And you tell me he is lucky.

God bless a man who is lucky for 5 out of 6 years!!!!!!

In that case F***FIP

[Angel Oracle]

Go with the three headed closer for now (Estevez, Moore, and Quijada).

Keep Wantz away from closing, setting up is fine.

[Angelsfan1984]

According to my sources Barria sucks and his hair has been stupid for 6 out of 6 years.

 

[mmc]

 

[BTH]

2 hours ago, stormngt said:

This is a problem with stat geeks.  Barria has been effective for 5 out of 6 years.  And you tell me he is lucky.

God bless a man who is lucky for 5 out of 6 years!!!!!!

In that case F***FIP

The purpose of FIP and peripherals is to contextualize the performance.

Yeah, he put up a good ERA. But future success matters more to the team than prior success.

When evaluating whether he’ll be good going forward, his FIP and other peripherals paint a murky picture.

Even if you just watch him, you can see that he’s throwing in the low 90’s with mediocre command. That’s not gonna work