Tamin’s Bullpen Matrix

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, Trendon said:

The purpose of FIP and peripherals is to contextualize the performance.

Yeah, he put up a good ERA. But future success matters more to the team than prior success.

When evaluating whether he’ll be good going forward, his FIP and other peripherals paint a murky picture.

Even if you just watch him, you can see that he’s throwing in the low 90’s with mediocre command. That’s not gonna work

This is absolutely insane.  First off, I didn't use ERA, I used ERA+ which i have been informed by people on this board that it is an advanced stat.

What makes your comment absurd is that you we are not comparing a Rookie, or a player who had breakout season.  We are talking about a player who has a 5+ year record.  His FIP never looked good.  You suggest he is lucky.  I argue that if a person is lucky for 5 of 6 years than it's not luck!

What will be like in the future?  I really don't know.  I never argued that he a top of rotation pitcher.  The average mlb player career is 2.5 years.  Barria has been good for twice that time!  His FIP numbers never balced out to his production.

 

Era+ measures production, FIP suggest future.  When a player constantly outperforms his FIP then it's time to stop using FIP under circumstances. 

[Swordsman78]

18 hours ago, stormngt said:

Barria maybe the most under appreciated pitcher the Angels history.

 

 

 

You mean after Nolan Ryan.  Angels traded him cuz they felt (2) 8-8 pitchers could replace him.  Still think we were cursed by The Express on the way out.

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, Swordsman78 said:

You mean after Nolan Ryan.  Angels traded him cuz they felt (2) 8-8 pitchers could replace him.  Still think we were cursed by The Express on the way out.

He’s obviously talking about being under appreciated by fans and fans don’t under appreciate Nolan Ryan. Also you’re a grown up, time to stop believing in curses. 

[Swordsman78]

6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

 s and fans don’t under appreciate Nolan Ryan.

I would not  under estimate some of the guys on this forum.   No Angel is spared.

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, Swordsman78 said:

I would not  under estimate some of the guys on this forum.   No Angel is spared.

You have a very distorted view of things. 

[stormngt]

15 minutes ago, Swordsman78 said:

You mean after Nolan Ryan.  Angels traded him cuz they felt (2) 8-8 pitchers could replace him.  Still think we were cursed by The Express on the way out.

Ok, you got me on that!

[Inside Pitch]

4 hours ago, Trendon said:

The purpose of FIP and peripherals is to contextualize the performance.

Yeah, he put up a good ERA. But future success matters more to the team than prior success.

When evaluating whether he’ll be good going forward, his FIP and other peripherals paint a murky picture.

Even if you just watch him, you can see that he’s throwing in the low 90’s with mediocre command. That’s not gonna work

Barria is starting to become an FIP outlier.  He's consistently beating the projections, mostly due to batted ball data.  He seems to find a pitch to milk weak contact out of hitters every season.  The interesting thing is that he's tended to shift from pitch to pitch.  He's someone I'd never bet on moving forward and yet someone I've come to learn not to bet against.  Hitters will eventually get him, but he "smoke and mirrors" his way through things more often than he's given credit for.

I think he's fine as a jack of all trades low leverage RP imo... Anyway, when I look at the bullpen he's not my biggest concern.

[Blarg]

6 hours ago, Swordsman78 said:

You mean after Nolan Ryan.  Angels traded him cuz they felt (2) 8-8 pitchers could replace him.  Still think we were cursed by The Express on the way out.

Ryan wasn't traded, he left in free agency. 

[Blarg]

5 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Barria is starting to become an FIP outlier.  He's consistently beating the projections, mostly due to batted ball data.  He seems to find a pitch to milk weak contact out of hitters every season.  The interesting thing is that he's tended to shift from pitch to pitch.  He's someone I'd never bet on moving forward and yet someone I've come to learn not to bet against.  Hitters will eventually get him, but he "smoke and mirrors" his way through things more often than he's given credit for.

I think he's fine as a jack of all trades low leverage RP imo... Anyway, when I look at the bullpen he's not my biggest concern.

He is what he is. A good innings eater when the team is either crushing nutz or getting their nutz crushed to take pressure off of using two guys to cover two innings. Like you said, a low leverage option. His last outing was not that and he failed miserably in a role he isn't suited for. 

His first game this year was the Seattle blow out and he was part of but not the entire problem. Then he went 5 games, 7.2 innings without giving up a run and only 2 hits. 

But that was forgotten because on a really screwed up seesaw game he was the last holding the hot potato. 

Maybe the Matrix needs a little game by game evaluation as to what they think is a reasonable risk/reward.  

[Make Angels Great Again]

So he’s like Dustin Moseley reincarnated 

[Jeff Fletcher]

9 hours ago, Trendon said:

When evaluating whether he’ll be good going forward, his FIP and other peripherals paint a murky picture.

FIP was fine before we had statcast. Now the exit velo and expected stats are much better. If a guy is getting hard contact but they are hit at people that’s a different thing entirely than a guy who gets soft contact and FIP doesn’t know the difference. 

[BTH]

5 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

I think he's fine as a jack of all trades low leverage RP imo... Anyway, when I look at the bullpen he's not my biggest concern.

that’s fair, but I just wouldn’t force myself into having a bullpen full of option-less relievers because I don’t want to lose Jaime Barría

[BTH]

13 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

FIP was fine before we had statcast. Now the exit velo and expected stats are much better. If a guy is getting hard contact but they are hit at people that’s a different thing entirely than a guy who gets soft contact and FIP doesn’t know the difference. 

True.

But his 55th percentile in avg exit velo and 68th percentile in hard hit% last season isn’t extraordinary.

Combine that with his below average velocity + lack of options, and I wouldn’t be desperate to keep him.

[arch stanton]

27 minutes ago, Trendon said:

True.

But his 55th percentile in avg exit velo and 68th percentile in hard hit% last season isn’t extraordinary.

Combine that with his below average velocity + lack of options, and I wouldn’t be desperate to keep him.

What’s the line between desperate to keep him and not pissing away a Major League pitching option?

[Inside Pitch]

5 hours ago, Trendon said:

True.

But his 55th percentile in avg exit velo and 68th percentile in hard hit% last season isn’t extraordinary.

Combine that with his below average velocity + lack of options, and I wouldn’t be desperate to keep him.

The overall numbers and the individual pitch data is where it gets interesting.  He's seriously become a guy that finds a pitch he can induce weak contact with and he'll go with it.  Last year it was his sinker change, this year he's riding his slider early on but he's sitting in the 94th percentile overall. Its legit something Barria is looking to do.

It's fine to think its no big deal to lose the final guy in the BP, but his ability to go multiple innings has value, even with a weak FB.

[Jeff Fletcher]

8 hours ago, Trendon said:

But his 55th percentile in avg exit velo and 68th percentile in hard hit% last season isn’t extraordinary.

Then you’d better find someone even better than that to replace him. 

[BTH]

24 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Then you’d better find someone even better than that to replace him. 

I guess it comes down to what you’re looking for in that spot.

If Barría is primarily being used for mop-up duty, I’d rather DFA him and use that spot to rotate through fresh arms.

Look at what the Rays are doing. They just add someone new to the roster every couple days and DFA or option the guy he’s replacing.

https://www.mlb.com/rays/roster/transactions

Edited April 27, 2023 by Trendon

[BTH]

3 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

It's fine to think its no big deal to lose the final guy in the BP, but his ability to go multiple innings has value, even with a weak FB.

It has value, sure, but it’s diminished when they have another guy who can do that (Davidson) and a bullpen full of guys without options.

[AngelsFaninGA]

Just now, Trendon said:

It has value, sure, but it’s diminished when they have another guy who can do that (Davidson) and a bullpen full of guys without options.

At this rate Davidson may end up taking Suarez's spot which still leaves Barria's spot open. I'm happy to keep a guy who's solid in his defined role as long as he doesn't randomly close games like he did two games ago. 

[BTH]

3 minutes ago, AngelsFaninGA said:

At this rate Davidson may end up taking Suarez's spot which still leaves Barria's spot open. I'm happy to keep a guy who's solid in his defined role as long as he doesn't randomly close games like he did two games ago. 

But if Davidson takes Suarez’s spot, Suarez would likely take Davidson’s spot.

So you’re still in the same position of having two long relievers without options.

Edited April 27, 2023 by Trendon

[Angels 1961]

Little confidence in half the bullpen. Quijada, Tepera, Loup, Barria. Add Suarez to pen would make it 5. Something needs to be done to bullpen and soon.