Tamin’s Bullpen Matrix

[Jeff Fletcher]

30 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I understand the roster mechanics, but they shouldn’t be afraid of losing Loup if they don’t trust him (which they clearly don’t).

There were 3 straight lefties in the 10th (Peterson, Noda, Kemp), yet they chose to stay with Barría instead of going to Loup.

The problem in that case was Loup was the last pitcher they felt they could use. 
 

They just have been painted into too many corners by having too few optionable relievers, too many close games, not enough off days and starters who don’t go deep enough in games. 
 

Every day it seems they have 2 guys they don’t feel they can use. Last night it was 4. There are no good answers when you have a 4-man bullpen and your starter gives up 7 runs in the first 3 innings. 

[AngelsFaninGA]

2 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The problem in that case was Loup was the last pitcher they felt they could use. 
 

They just have been painted into too many corners by having too few optionable relievers, too many close games, not enough off days and starters who don’t go deep enough in games. 
 

Every day it seems they have 2 guys they don’t feel they can use. Last night it was 4. There are no good answers when you have a 4-man bullpen and your starter gives up 7 runs in the first 3 innings. 

We do tend to play a lot of close games that come down to the bullpen, and it's also not ideal to only plan for 4 available relievers in a game where your worst starter is pitching. Total mess all around.

I still think there needs to be some flexibility with this Tamin nonsense. Maybe they chalked this up as a loss once Suarez got shelled early, but once your offense comes back and regains the lead for you it would make sense in that situation to activate one of your high-leverage relievers and use them in the 9th. Otherwise it's a total waste. 

[jsnpritchett]

2 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The problem in that case was Loup was the last pitcher they felt they could use. 
 

They just have been painted into too many corners by having too few optionable relievers, too many close games, not enough off days and starters who don’t go deep enough in games. 
 

Every day it seems they have 2 guys they don’t feel they can use. Last night it was 4. There are no good answers when you have a 4-man bullpen and your starter gives up 7 runs in the first 3 innings. 

Do other teams use something similar to this matrix? If not, why not? Are other teams constantly in the situations the Angels find themselves in with regard to the bullpen? If not, why not? 

I'm honestly just sick and fucking tired of the lame excuses and explanations (that's directed at the situation in general, not you specifically, Jeff).

[T.G.]

If it's predictable, it's preventable.

Problem is... baseball is unpredictable.

[AngelsFaninGA]

Just now, T.G. said:

If it's predictable, it's preventable.

Problem is... baseball is unpredictable.

If it's unpredictable we wouldn't have the longest playoff drought in the league. Surely by random chance we'd have made it at some point

[BTH]

10 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The problem in that case was Loup was the last pitcher they felt they could use. 
 

They just have been painted into too many corners by having too few optionable relievers, too many close games, not enough off days and starters who don’t go deep enough in games. 
 

Every day it seems they have 2 guys they don’t feel they can use. Last night it was 4. There are no good answers when you have a 4-man bullpen and your starter gives up 7 runs in the first 3 innings. 

It’s a self-inflicted problem that they aren’t trying to address.

They’re keeping Loup and Barría on the roster. And they didn’t option Warren to get a fresh arm. Going by the way they operate, he’d be down yesterday and today. He has options, yet they kept him up. If they optioned him and brought up a fresh arm, they could’ve had a shorter leash with Suarez or been able to use Loup without using the “last guy in the pen.”

[stormngt]

12 hours ago, Trendon said:

I rarely agree with Joe Maddon, but he’s right in this instance: Tamin’s bullpen usage matrix is stupid.

Estévez should’ve been available tonight, but he wasn’t because they don’t want to use relievers in 3/4 games this early.

That completely ignores the emotion and feel of a game. I’m sure Estévez wanted to pitch. The team came back from down 7-2. And it gets blown because the bullpen matrix says Estévez is unavailable.

It's stupid to use metrics as a religion. 

[stormngt]

2 hours ago, AngelsFaninGA said:

Barria and Wantz aren't even bad pitchers in a vacuum (compared to Tepera and a lot of the other garbage we've thrown out there over the years) but throwing them into a save situation because half the bullpen is unavailable due to some spreadsheet is just laughable. It honestly seemed like the plan with Barria was to just leave him in there until the game ended one way or the other. He'd have given up like 7 runs if Wade didn't bail him out. 

Exactly. Holding out half the bullpen and both pitchers with closer experience was assinine

[T.G.]

58 minutes ago, AngelsFaninGA said:

If it's unpredictable we wouldn't have the longest playoff drought in the league. Surely by random chance we'd have made it at some point

That doesn't make any sense to me

[AngelsFaninGA]

Just now, T.G. said:

That doesn't make any sense to me

Should it? If things are truly unpredictable and the games are played in an existential alternative reality, then just shave payroll by 80% and call up a bunch of randoms to lower expectations and make things fun. The current roster is about as annoying and wasteful as you can get. 

[T.G.]

Just now, AngelsFaninGA said:

If things are truly unpredictable and the games are played in an existential alternative reality,

Games aren't played in an "existential alternative reality..."

[AngelsFaninGA]

Just now, T.G. said:

Games aren't played in an "existential alternative reality..."

Aren't they though? Since everything is about perspective and performance not really mattering? In the grand scheme of things they largely are, especially for us as the fans, since we have no impact on the outcome. 

[T.G.]

1 minute ago, AngelsFaninGA said:

we have no impact on the outcome. 

I most certainly have an impact on the outcome.  I have a ritual where if I eat popcorn, while hopping on one foot with lamp shade on my head - we score a run.  I'm just too lazy to do that all game long.

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, AngelsFaninGA said:

We do tend to play a lot of close games that come down to the bullpen, and it's also not ideal to only plan for 4 available relievers in a game where your worst starter is pitching. Total mess all around.

I still think there needs to be some flexibility with this Tamin nonsense. Maybe they chalked this up as a loss once Suarez got shelled early, but once your offense comes back and regains the lead for you it would make sense in that situation to activate one of your high-leverage relievers and use them in the 9th. Otherwise it's a total waste. 

I remember Nevin saying earlier he didn’t want to use any relievers 3 out of 4 days and then a couple days later he did it because they were trying to win a game and he had no choice. 
 

I think he is somewhat flexible but the more the workload piles up without a break, the less he’s going to be willing to keep being flexible. 
 

 

 

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

Do other teams use something similar to this matrix? If not, why not? Are other teams constantly in the situations the Angels find themselves in with regard to the bullpen? If not, why not? 

I'm honestly just sick and fucking tired of the lame excuses and explanations (that's directed at the situation in general, not you specifically, Jeff).

I assume that all teams have pitcher usage rules. Tamin just came from the Braves and Dodgers, two pretty successful teams. Nowadays in baseball I believe all teams operate in essentially the same way when it comes to big stuff. 

[Slegnaac]

I will gladly pay you next Tuesday for a Hamburger today.

[Jeff Fletcher]

By the way, you can go to the roster resource depth charts on Fangraphs and scroll down to the bullpen and go to the right and you'll see a little chart of recent reliever usage, if you want to see how other teams do it.

I just flipped through the Astros and Dodgers and didn't see any 3-out-of-4's or really even 3/5's.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/dodgers

[totdprods]

Another drawback of this sort of philosophy is it seems like it would make it pretty easy for opponents to know which relievers they’re likely to face. I mean, I know they’re MLB teams and scouting and preparing for anything, but by teams (Angels or otherwise) sticking with such a rigid system seems like it would make it pretty easy for teams to hone in their scouting knowing which arms aren’t really in the mix any given night. 

[BTH]

33 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

By the way, you can go to the roster resource depth charts on Fangraphs and scroll down to the bullpen and go to the right and you'll see a little chart of recent reliever usage, if you want to see how other teams do it.

I just flipped through the Astros and Dodgers and didn't see any 3-out-of-4's or really even 3/5's.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/dodgers

But you have to consider the context of the game. Obviously, we’re not gonna be as dialed in on other teams as we are with the Angels.

I’m not saying reliever should always pitch 3/4 games. I’m just saying pick your spots and have some feel for when to do it.

You don’t come back from being down 7-2 every day. That’s a win you want to secure.

[BTH]

2 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I remember Nevin saying earlier he didn’t want to use any relievers 3 out of 4 days and then a couple days later he did it because they were trying to win a game and he had no choice. 
 

I think he is somewhat flexible but the more the workload piles up without a break, the less he’s going to be willing to keep being flexible. 
 

 

 

He was “flexible” in that situation because “he had no choice.”

We’re asking him to be flexible— or asking the front office to allow him to be flexible— in certain situations where a win needs to be secured. Not emergency situations, cause those are different.

Edited April 25, 2023 by Trendon

[greginpsca]

3 hours ago, stormngt said:

It's stupid to use metrics as a religion. 

If you overuse statistics, you will eventually become a statistic.

[T.G.]

The title of this thread makes me think Tamin is sitting at a couple of turntables spinning his own mix of music.

[BTH]

I wonder what Perry and Tamin think when they see Jaime Barria entering the game in the 9th to try and hold down a 1 run lead with runners at 1B and 2B with 0 outs.

Is it "oh well, let's stick with our process" or is it "maybe we need to change something about our process so this situation doesn't happen."

If you don't change anything, it'd make me think it's the former.

Edited April 25, 2023 by Trendon

[T.G.]

You're over thinking/over analyzing this.

[Angel Oracle]

Desperately need the starters to average more than 5.0 innings, and for the offense to not be so inconsistent.

Improve those, and they get better and can better maximize the pen.