Assuming we're done...which questions will be answered in Spring Training?

[Angelsjunky]

As an aside, while there has been some confusion about Minasian's plan, I think it is pretty clear at this point: to raise the floor of performance, and hope that the premier talent already on the team actualizes itself better. Or to use another metaphor, he's patching holes in the boat. But he's not upgrading the engine....why? Presumably because of payroll considerations and the impending sale, but also - and adequately enough as an explanation - the engine itself is already pretty good, it just had problems last year. Raising the floor not only fills out the gaps in the roster with better players than last year, but it also means better replacements in the eventuality of injury.

Meaning, the Angels already have star power: Trout and Ohtani are still among the very best in the game, and if you squint just right, a healthy Rendon would still be pretty good; and Sandoval and Detmers are emerging studs. And we can dream on what Ward might do, bounce-backs from Stassi and Walsh, and a solid secondary group of new and old players like Rengifo, Fletcher, and some of the new guys.

Which brings me to the question of the thread. If we assume that Minasian is done with significant moves, aside from a small move here and there, what questions remain that won't be answered in ST, but also will presumably be answered then?

Here's the chart from the 26-Man Roster thread:

Looking at that, I think the questions that will be answered in spring are:

Who will the second catcher be?  

This will depend on how everyone looks in ST. We assume that Stassi has the starting gig, but what if he looks like he did last year and O'Hoppe looks great? Or if Stassi is fine, do they roll the dice on Thaiss's defense as back-up and put O'Hoppe in AAA? Or do we see them go with Wallach?

Who will be the (and will there be a) fourth outfielder? 

One would assume Adell will start in AAA (again), but I could go either way on Moniak. I think the best thing for him would be to a get a month or so of regular playing time, and then be called up in May or June. But who will they go with, if anyone? They could carry another infielder (Lamb, Soto, or Velazquez) and use one of the infielders as the 4th outfielder.

Who is the sixth starter?

There have been rumors that the Angels will go with a five-man rotation but even if they do they'll probably still have someone start when there are no off-days during the week. My estimate for that is April 22: That's the first day that Ohtani's spot (assuming he pitches on Opening Day) would come up without having had a day off since his last start. Similarly with the following week, April 28th.

So my guess would be that whether or not they go for a five or six man rotation, they don't really need a sixth starter until April 22, three weeks into the season. By that point, they'll have some data on guys like Chris Rodriguez and Griffin Canning, and see how rusty they look in live games. Right now is probably is probably Davidson or Silseth, but the former has limited upside and the latter could use a bit more seasoning.

What does the back-end of the bullpen look like?

I imagine the bullpen will be a work in progress for at least the first couple months, and there will be lots of fantasy baseball-esque "streaming" of players in the bullpen all year, with a ton of options. Later on, the Angels will want to at least get a look at prospects like Bush, Erla, Joyce, Murphy, Torres, Bachman, etc.

......

Meaning, I think the dark red players in the chart are all set - locks to start the year on the roster (barring a spring injury). That's 21 players. So we're still looking at five slots: a catcher, a bench hitter who can play outfield, and three pitchers, which I'm guessing will be three relievers on Opening Day, with a sixth starter called up when needed.

There's of course the big question of When will the team sale go through and who will the new owner be (and what will be their strategy)? But that isn't a question specific to spring training. 

Anything else?

[Warfarin]

Nice post.  I think maybe a bit early to post this, in that there are still almost 2 months of offseason left, and a lot of things can still happen.

That said, to play along, my general thoughts regarding your questions:

1.  Catcher - my feeling is it'll be either O'Hoppe or Wallach if we don't add anyone.  I don't think Thaiss is considered good enough defensively to hold the second catcher spot.  If the FO wants to play the service time game with O'Hoppe, which is possible, then maybe O'Hoppe will be in AAA for roughly the first month, then called up thereafter.  I think they'll enter ST with the group we see, and they'll see how all three look, but I am betting Thaiss gets DFA'd barring a huge leap in his defensive growth during the offseason.

2.  4th OF - I like the acquisition of Barrera.  I think his hit tool is sufficient enough to be serviceable, and he grades out well defensively.  I wouldn't mind him being added, although if he is, then he can't be optioned thereafter (no options left).  For sure Adell has to spend the bulk of the year in AAA (if not all of it), and Moniak would be best served getting more regular playing time in AAA too.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Moniak get the job, but I think he does have some potential and is best served playing regularly.  That said, I'm also intrigued by the idea of having 7 infielders and punting on the 4th OF.  Having Velazquez on this roster, for example, to sub in late in games, with Fletcher shifting over to 2B, should make for a very strong defense to close out games.  If that happens though, that should be the entirety of Velazquez's role - late inning defensive sub.

3.  Sixth SP - this is the spot that I think we will see an addition.  I think Perry will acquire one before the end of the offseason.  While our top 5 starters are good, we are a little short on immediate depth, and it'd be ideal to add another IMO.

4.  Bullpen - think we see another addition here too.  I think we are pretty good here to be honest, and I think that we will outperform projections

 

[EdmontonAngelsFan]

 

[EdmontonAngelsFan]

24 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Nice post.  I think maybe a bit early to post this, in that there are still almost 2 months of offseason left, and a lot of things can still happen.

That said, to play along, my general thoughts regarding your questions:

1.  Catcher - my feeling is it'll be either O'Hoppe or Wallach if we don't add anyone.  I don't think Thaiss is considered good enough defensively to hold the second catcher spot.  If the FO wants to play the service time game with O'Hoppe, which is possible, then maybe O'Hoppe will be in AAA for roughly the first month, then called up thereafter.  I think they'll enter ST with the group we see, and they'll see how all three look, but I am betting Thaiss gets DFA'd barring a huge leap in his defensive growth during the offseason.

2.  4th OF - I like the acquisition of Barrera.  I think his hit tool is sufficient enough to be serviceable, and he grades out well defensively.  I wouldn't mind him being added, although if he is, then he can't be optioned thereafter (no options left).  For sure Adell has to spend the bulk of the year in AAA (if not all of it), and Moniak would be best served getting more regular playing time in AAA too.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Moniak get the job, but I think he does have some potential and is best served playing regularly.  That said, I'm also intrigued by the idea of having 7 infielders and punting on the 4th OF.  Having Velazquez on this roster, for example, to sub in late in games, with Fletcher shifting over to 2B, should make for a very strong defense to close out games.  If that happens though, that should be the entirety of Velazquez's role - late inning defensive sub.

3.  Sixth SP - this is the spot that I think we will see an addition.  I think Perry will acquire one before the end of the offseason.  While our top 5 starters are good, we are a little short on immediate depth, and it'd be ideal to add another IMO.

4.  Bullpen - think we see another addition here too.  I think we are pretty good here to be honest, and I think that we will outperform projections

 

Agree with you on the 6th spot of the rotation and bullpen. I have a feeling we see an addition at both too. 

But, Perry has surprised me with his Drury signing so who knows what's truly next.

[Revad]

Thaiss had a pop time of 1.99 last year, with Stassi at 2.03 and Suzuki 2.07.  I know that’s just a slice of things but it’s data.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/poptime

Edited December 23, 2022 by Revad

[Warfarin]

13 minutes ago, Revad said:

Thaiss had a pop time of 1.99 last year, with Stassi at 2.03 and Suzuki 2.07.  I know that’s just a slice of things but it’s data.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/poptime

Good data.  Something I have always wondered -  how much of a role does a catcher have in terms of determining pitch sequencing?  I.e., which pitches are called, in what order, etc.  I think things like that must matter a lot.  Does the manager (and really, ultimately, the FO?) play a role in calling that?  Is it largely up to the pitcher?  

I suspect a catcher holds a lot of responsibility for that, and if that is the case, that is probably the greatest chunk of their defensive value, as knowing how to sequence pitches and exploit hitters' weaknesses probably holds a tremendous amount of value.  It is just hard to say how much a catcher dictate those decisions.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

 

2.  4th OF - I like the acquisition of Barrera.  

I didn't see this. One would think this means that Moniak and Adell are both likely to start in AAA, with Barrera being a cheaper Lagares type.

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

3.  Sixth SP - this is the spot that I think we will see an addition.  I think Perry will acquire one before the end of the offseason.  While our top 5 starters are good, we are a little short on immediate depth, and it'd be ideal to add another IMO.

Hmm...not sure I agree with you on this. As I wrote above, they don't need a 6th starter until April 22, and then they can roll with Barria, Davidson, Diaz, or even Daniel for a start or three until one of Canning, Silseth, or Rodriguez is ready.

Meaning, I think signing another starter is a waste of resources relative to what the Angels have as depth: which is a ton of guys either are already able to, or on the cusp of being able to, provide at least adequate innings, and with several of them having the potential to provide quality innings a month or or two into the season.

[Warfarin]

17 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

 

Hmm...not sure I agree with you on this. As I wrote above, they don't need a 6th starter until April 22, and then they can roll with Barria, Davidson, Diaz, or even Daniel for a start or three until one of Canning, Silseth, or Rodriguez is ready.

Meaning, I think signing another starter is a waste of resources relative to what the Angels have as depth: which is a ton of guys either are already able to, or on the cusp of being able to, provide at least adequate innings, and with several of them having the potential to provide quality innings a month or or two into the season.

I hear what you are saying, and if everyone stays relatively healthy, I agree with you, but that's the issue right?  Perry just constructed an infield that has depth and is prepared to have options if/when injury strikes.

A rotation of Ohtani, Sandoval, Anderson, Suarez, Detmers is fine.  And yes, when we need the 6th man, that is when we go to Silseth.  You list Barria, Davidson, Diaz, Daniel .. but outside of an occasional spot start, I don't think any of these guys are options really.  Barria was not allowed to start last year, so I don't think he's really an option.  Davidson .. unless he shows significant offseason improvement, I don't think we want to see him start.  Diaz is okay at best, and he was DFA'd a bit ago, so the FO likely doesn't really consider him particularly valuable.  Daniel could have some potential, but he did not look good last year.

So again, if they stay healthy, we can be okay with that.  But let's say one of our top 5 SPs gets hurt, which seems likely give the nature of this game.  Let's say someone is out a few months.  Then what?  Let's say it's Sandoval.  So we have Ohtani, Anderson, Suarez, Detmers .. and then we have to make Silseth SP5, and then one of those other guys becomes entrenched as SP6.

I mean, while things could pan out, I think the goal is to construct a team that has enough depth to weather injuries.  I would say adding a 6th SP isn't IMPERATIVE, but I think it would greatly help.

[Angelsjunky]

46 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I hear what you are saying, and if everyone stays relatively healthy, I agree with you, but that's the issue right?  Perry just constructed an infield that has depth and is prepared to have options if/when injury strikes.

A rotation of Ohtani, Sandoval, Anderson, Suarez, Detmers is fine.  And yes, when we need the 6th man, that is when we go to Silseth.  You list Barria, Davidson, Diaz, Daniel .. but outside of an occasional spot start, I don't think any of these guys are options really.  Barria was not allowed to start last year, so I don't think he's really an option.  Davidson .. unless he shows significant offseason improvement, I don't think we want to see him start.  Diaz is okay at best, and he was DFA'd a bit ago, so the FO likely doesn't really consider him particularly valuable.  Daniel could have some potential, but he did not look good last year.

So again, if they stay healthy, we can be okay with that.  But let's say one of our top 5 SPs gets hurt, which seems likely give the nature of this game.  Let's say someone is out a few months.  Then what?  Let's say it's Sandoval.  So we have Ohtani, Anderson, Suarez, Detmers .. and then we have to make Silseth SP5, and then one of those other guys becomes entrenched as SP6.

I mean, while things could pan out, I think the goal is to construct a team that has enough depth to weather injuries.  I would say adding a 6th SP isn't IMPERATIVE, but I think it would greatly help.

Well as the saying goes, "There's no such things as too much starting pitching." So if the choice is, either spend another $10-15M on a decent starter or not spend the money at all, sure; though I dislike the thought of blocking Silseth, C-Rod and Canning, the realities of baseball means they'd have their chances, one way or the other.

But given the limits on resources, and that if there's another $10-15M to spend, another starter isn't necessarily my first choice, I'm pointing out that the Angels have starting depth. The immediate options (Barria, Davidson, Diaz, Daniel) aren't good, but they'll do in a pinch and/or an emergency start or three, and maybe just for a month or so, which amounts to a few starts - until the higher upside guys are more ready. 

Meaning, I like the chances of at least one of C-Rod, Silseth, and Canning becoming solid starters by the ASB, and with much greater upside (especially the first two). Not to mention Bush is right behind them.

[Warfarin]

53 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Well as the saying goes, "There's no such things as too much starting pitching." So if the choice is, either spend another $10-15M on a decent starter or not spend the money at all, sure; though I dislike the thought of blocking Silseth, C-Rod and Canning, the realities of baseball means they'd have their chances, one way or the other.

But given the limits on resources, and that if there's another $10-15M to spend, another starter isn't necessarily my first choice, I'm pointing out that the Angels have starting depth. The immediate options (Barria, Davidson, Diaz, Daniel) aren't good, but they'll do in a pinch and/or an emergency start or three, and maybe just for a month or so, which amounts to a few starts - until the higher upside guys are more ready. 

Meaning, I like the chances of at least one of C-Rod, Silseth, and Canning becoming solid starters by the ASB, and with much greater upside (especially the first two). Not to mention Bush is right behind them.

I don't really view CRod or Canning's immediate future too optimistically, especially the former.  Their health track record is poor and I would not bet on them.  If they pan out and stay healthy, that's awesome, but I would not plan on it currently.

I think, assuming we have under 10mil left to spend, I would say SP is probably the greatest priority to invest in currently.  The infield appears set, and I think so is our OF.  We can probably find a decent reliever cheaply enough.  Jeff mentioned we could be interested in the LHP DFA'd from the Yankees, who would cost 1.75mil.  

In terms of SP options, someone like Hill, Wacha, or various other options can probably be had in the price range we have available.  

This is not to discount the future of the guys you have mentioned, but I would just err on the side of having too many SPs, and having to "delay" the promotion of some of our AAA options, than instead being short-handed.  

We will inevitably have at least 1-2 injuries, because that's how this game goes, and at that time, we can see Silseth and others promoted.

[Pancake Bear]

Biggest questions for me in Spring based on current roster:

- Who will be the second catcher? O'Hoppe might already be ready, but I don't think he's got it in the bag, and that leaves a question mark for Thaiss. I find it hard to believe Thaiss is the backup, though. 

- Will they roster a fourth outfielder or just stick with an extra infielder and have one of Walsh, Fletcher, Rengifo, or Urshela give them off days?

- Who will the primary shortstop be? I'm skeptical Fletcher is an everyday player, but Urshela's worst season at the plate came when the Yanks tried to use him as their primary shortstop and Rengifo is just passable there as far as I can tell. 

- How much will the sixth starter really be utilized? Will there be a clear #6 or a rotating group of guys to fill that role when they need one? (This all of course assumes they don't bring someone else in - like Eovaldi.)

[Pancake Bear]

48 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I don't really view CRod or Canning's immediate future too optimistically,

I hope for the best, but my current view is expect nothing from them and maybe we'll be happily surprised. CRod would be a great addition to the pen if healthy, but he's yet to stay healthy. 

[Warfarin]

1 minute ago, Pancake Bear said:

I hope for the best, but my current view is expect nothing from them and maybe we'll be happily surprised. CRod would be a great addition to the pen if healthy, but he's yet to stay healthy. 

Agreed.  I think they both have good potential, especially CRod.  But if our intent is to contend, we should view any contributions from those two as luxuries, not as necessities for contention.  So that's why, for me, I build a plan that doesn't factor them in, and if we can somehow get something out them - great!

And yeah, on that note - I would rather just put CRod in the pen.  His stuff plays up fantastically there and he could step in immediately as a high leverage reliever, if he is healthy.

If his health holds up for one year as a reliever, then in future years, they can consider stretching him out to a starter.  But first step for him is to make it through most of an MLB season, IMO.

[BTH]

Why are we assuming they are done?

I don’t get the sense that they’re done.

At the very least, it doesn’t sound like they think their work is done. Whether or not they are able to accomplish anything is a different question, but I still they get more things done.

Edited December 24, 2022 by Trendon

[T.G.]

1 minute ago, Trendon said:

Why are we assuming he’s done?

I don’t get the sense that they’re done.

At the very least, it doesn’t sound like they think their work is done. Whether or not they are able to accomplish anything is a different question, but I still they get more things done.

They're not done. AJ just likes to do these in depth posts. It's all good.

[BTH]

4 hours ago, Warfarin said:

4th OF - That said, I'm also intrigued by the idea of having 7 infielders and punting on the 4th OF.  Having Velazquez on this roster, for example, to sub in late in games, with Fletcher shifting over to 2B, should make for a very strong defense to close out games.  If that happens though, that should be the entirety of Velazquez's role - late inning defensive sub.

Unless they sign a 4th OF to an MLB deal, I think carrying Velazquez as a defensive sub makes the most sense.

Think about it:

- It sounds like they’re comfortable with Drury, Urshela, and Walsh playing in the corner outfield spots and comfortable with Renfroe or Ward playing CF.

- Late in games, they wouldn’t sub out Ward, Trout, or Renfroe for defense. But they would sub out Drury, Rengifo, or Urshela at 2B/SS.

- If Ward, Trout, or Renfroe got injured, then you could call up a true 4th OF. Either by placing one of those guys on the IL or by optioning Velazquez.

[BTH]

6 minutes ago, T.G. said:

They're not done. AJ just likes to do these in depth posts. It's all good.

Yeah, these posts are great

I just think it’s hard to answer some of these questions when it seems like there will still be more moves to come.

The backup C and 4th OF situation likely doesn’t change, but I think the pitching situation does.

[BTH]

I thought it was interesting that Perry mentioned Chris Rodriguez as a 6th starter candidate.

Is this an indication that they view him as a starter and not a reliever?

 

[Pancake Bear]

5 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

As an aside, wihle there has been some confusion about Minasian's plan, I think it is pretty clear at this point: to raise the floor of performance, and hope that the premier talent already on the team actualizes itself better. Or to use another metaphor, he's patching holes in the boat. But he's not upgrading the engine....why? Presumably because of payroll considerations and the impending sale, but also - and adequately enough as an explanation - the engine itself is already pretty good, it just had problems last year. Raising the floor not only fills out the gaps in the roster with better players than last year, but it also means better replacements in the eventuality of injury.

I heard a podcast a few years back where some dudes from Fangraphs (iirc?) were discussing what the Angels needed to put a playoff team around Trout, and they argued that you really just needed some solid major league regulars, which we did not have then - or, really any time in most of Trout's Angels tenure. 

But we finally have a rotation with an ace, two budding TOR arms (Sandoval pitched like one last year and Detmers is looking like he may be soon), and two solid arms in Anderson and Suarez. We also have depth there for seemingly the first time ever. We finished 2nd in AL for starters, and Anderson should at least match if not improve on Syndergaard and Lorenzen from last year.

We have Rendon, Walsh, and Ward, who have all played at an all star level in recent history, although it's unclear if they can get back to that level. But if they don't, we have really good depth. Like last year when we were starting Velazquez, Wade, and Mayfield. Now our infield is at least 6 major league level guys (all of whom should be 2 wins or better) for 4 slots. That's before you even get to guys like Velazquez or Lamb or Soto. Outfield is slightly shallower, but less obvious injury or performance drop risks there. 

Can always use more depth, obviously, but it's hard not to get excited at the possibilities. We were really close last season before the wheels fell off. Now we have more depth and better starters than last year. The only place I'm concerned about is the bullpen, but there's still time and room to improve without spending a ton.

[T.G.]

30 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I thought it was interesting that Perry mentioned Chris Rodriguez as a 6th starter candidate.

Is this an indication that they view him as a starter and not a reliever?

I believe that's always been the case/goal.

Edited December 24, 2022 by T.G.

[Blarg]

I think Canning will show in spring training that he is capable to hold down a 6th rotation spot leaving C-Rod to develop as a closer.

[TempeAngel]

I think Walsh will be a focal point in ST. They have the depth to replace him and he has an option so if he sucks still he may be in SLC. The league may have figured him out.

[Pancake Bear]

13 minutes ago, TempeAngel said:

I think Walsh will be a focal point in ST. They have the depth to replace him and he has an option so if he sucks still he may be in SLC. The league may have figured him out.

He may ride the pine more, but he'd have to really suck badly to get optioned. He was a very solid bat until the end of June. He didn't plummet until July. The team stuck with him way too long after his collapse. Presumably July is when the injury started screwing with him. 

[Warfarin]

2 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

I heard a podcast a few years back where some dudes from Fangraphs (iirc?) were discussing what the Angels needed to put a playoff team around Trout, and they argued that you really just needed some solid major league regulars, which we did not have then - or, really any time in most of Trout's Angels tenure. 

But we finally have a rotation with an ace, two budding TOR arms (Sandoval pitched like one last year and Detmers is looking like he may be soon), and two solid arms in Anderson and Suarez. We also have depth there for seemingly the first time ever. We finished 2nd in AL for starters, and Anderson should at least match if not improve on Syndergaard and Lorenzen from last year.

We have Rendon, Walsh, and Ward, who have all played at an all star level in recent history, although it's unclear if they can get back to that level. But if they don't, we have really good depth. Like last year when we were starting Velazquez, Wade, and Mayfield. Now our infield is at least 6 major league level guys (all of whom should be 2 wins or better) for 4 slots. That's before you even get to guys like Velazquez or Lamb or Soto. Outfield is slightly shallower, but less obvious injury or performance drop risks there. 

Can always use more depth, obviously, but it's hard not to get excited at the possibilities. We were really close last season before the wheels fell off. Now we have more depth and better starters than last year. The only place I'm concerned about is the bullpen, but there's still time and room to improve without spending a ton.

Agreed with all the above.  One other thing too that I think is important that isn't mentioned as often is having Nevin instead of Maddon as manager.  It really isn't commentary on Kevin more than it is on Maddon and the fact that he seemed to be significantly at odds with the vision of the FO.  A lot of strong teams have a pretty strong collaboration between the FO and management, such that they work in tandem well and can help improve outcomes for the team.  Nevin seems to be working well with the FO, so there is hope that perhaps this can lead to some better results than we saw under Maddon.

[ukyah]

2 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Agreed with all the above.  One other thing too that I think is important that isn't mentioned as often is having Nevin instead of Maddon as manager.  It really isn't commentary on Kevin more than it is on Maddon and the fact that he seemed to be significantly at odds with the vision of the FO.  A lot of strong teams have a pretty strong collaboration between the FO and management, such that they work in tandem well and can help improve outcomes for the team.  Nevin seems to be working well with the FO, so there is hope that perhaps this can lead to some better results than we saw under Maddon.

new ownership changes everything for everybody, but i totally agree that nevin and minasian seem to be in harmony.