If the season started today.... POLL

[Hubs]

Just now, jsnpritchett said:

Cool.  So what will happen in reality?

I choose to be optimistic. 

 

[Docwaukee]

 

16 minutes ago, floplag said:

No you choose to want them to be, but the simple fact is we get more value now, than we will then, and you should know that. 

this is not necessarily true across the board.  

maybe for Ohtani but that's a very special situation because of his overall importance to the franchise.  Any franchise.  So you are forced to wait until the last possible second to trade him as long as he given an indication that he may be willing to stay. 

your premise for trading the rest of the guys now is based on a message board poster's estimate of the number of wins that will likely occur for this team.  I bet you the front office would disagree that they can't make the playoffs

plus, the other guys mentioned might actually have as much if not more value at the deadline.  They're all mildly expensive even though decently productive.  If Loup and Tepera have better seasons they're definitely worth more at the deadline.  Right now they'd be salary dumps.  And Renfroe or Urshela will have half of their salary paid by the deadline.  

And don't discount the desperation factor that occurs mid season 

[T.G.]

162 wins. Give or take.

[Mark68]

They've improved. Maybe about 10 games better than last year. Not enough for the playoffs, though. 

[floplag]

23 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

 

this is not necessarily true across the board.  

maybe for Ohtani but that's a very special situation because of his overall importance to the franchise.  Any franchise.  So you are forced to wait until the last possible second to trade him as long as he given an indication that he may be willing to stay. 

your premise for trading the rest of the guys now is based on a message board poster's estimate of the number of wins that will likely occur for this team.  I bet you the front office would disagree that they can't make the playoffs

plus, the other guys mentioned might actually have as much if not more value at the deadline.  They're all mildly expensive even though decently productive.  If Loup and Tepera have better seasons they're definitely worth more at the deadline.  Right now they'd be salary dumps.  And Renfroe or Urshela will have half of their salary paid by the deadline.  

And don't discount the desperation factor that occurs mid season 

i did not suggest trading the rest, they are fine for the deadline. 
Ohtani is absolutely a unique case, but there is no logic that suggests its likely he would have more value for 2 months, than a full season.   
Youre banking on someone being so desperate they have to overpay, i prefer the known. 

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

You get more trading them now

then I don't understand what you meant by this.  

[bloodbrother]

83-79 and miss the playoffs. New ownership then hires its own GM who then hires his own manager.

[Warfarin]

I don't know, too hard to say.  If Trout, Rendon, and Ohtani stay rather healthy and play the majority of their games, this team could probably win ~87 games or so as currently constructed.  If health does not hold up, then .. considerably worse.

Acquiring a legit SS, a solid 4th OF option (can be done cheaply), and another pitcher (SP/RP?) will help considerably and could push this to a 90-92 win team, but we'll see what happens.

Perhaps more realistically, this team can have a winning season in 2023, then have the foundation set for the new owner to see a gigantic leap in 2024, as they secure Ohtani for years, add another top line SP, and watch our minor leaguers start to graduate, reach the MLB, and become solid contributors, as this team then transcends into a perpetual 90+ win team.

[Dtwncbad]

I voted easily over 100 wins because if the season started today, it would be about a 220 game season.

115-105

Edited December 15, 2022 by Dtwncbad

[Docwaukee]

Base runs had us at -8 wins relative to what was more likely statistically.  Makes some sense relative to the bottom of the order and crappy bullpen.  But some of that is just straight up bad luck.  I think both have improved considerably.  To the point that once the season ended I'm comfortable saying they're were about an 80 win team walking into the off season.  I think they've improved to 85 wins.  And with average health, maybe 87-88.  

I think there's easily another 3-5 wins with a couple things happening.  
Above average health
Improved depth at SS, OF, SP or a top notch reliever
What I would consider reasonable progression of several SP and RP arms currently on the major league club and/or in the minors.  

Other things I think less likely
Substantial progression from the SP and RP pool 
The light goes on for Adell or Moniak or Neto or Ohoppe and they become very good starters at this point in their careers (not saying they eventually won't)
Fletcher reverts to 2019/2020 form
Excellent health across the board

A couple things that are of concern still
Of course if Ohtani or Trout miss substantial time we're screwed
Poor health or performance from 1b AND 3b or the MIF and/or one of the corner OF spots.  
A drop in production from our young starters
The unproven depth for the pen and no legit elite reliever/closer.   

It's more than reasonable to project a playoff team here with some simple additions.  Way more so than in recent past.  
 

[Fish Oil]

If the season started today, Ohtani, Trout, and Rendon would all be healthy so I said playoff contender.

Let's see how long that lasts.

[Stradling]

3 hours ago, floplag said:

No you choose to want them to be, but the simple fact is we get more value now, than we will then, and you should know that. 

Ok Loup and Tepera are coming off of below average seasons. There are free agents available. Those two along with Urshela and Renfroe have more value at the deadline when teams are adding talent for their playoff run. So like I said, you choose to not see that. 

[Stradling]

2 hours ago, floplag said:

i did not suggest trading the rest, they are fine for the deadline. 
Ohtani is absolutely a unique case, but there is no logic that suggests its likely he would have more value for 2 months, than a full season.   
Youre banking on someone being so desperate they have to overpay, i prefer the known. 

You responded to a post mentioning trading them then claiming they have more value now. 

[eligrba4ever]

The Angels COULD POSSIBLY make the playoffs:

• IF Trout plays in 150-plus games;
• IF Ohtani can improve his numbers on last season;
• IF the new guy from the Land of Blue can repeat his career season wearing red;
• IF the new right fielder doesn't fade offensively as many NL-to-AL stars seem to do;
• IF the guy with the big contract at third base can still play a full season effectively and not go down for the count before the end of June -- AGAIN;
• IF IF IF IF ...

Yeah, it COULD happen.

[ukyah]

angels better stop fucking around with trying to field a middling team that barely sneaks into the playoffs or they're going to find out what life without ohtani is like.

i don't think an 80ish win team is very convincing.

[TempeAngel]

Mike Trout will play at the very least his 4th and 5th career playoff games in October.

[m0nkey]

69-93

[ScottT]

It'd be chilly at the big a.  Games would be postponed in a lot of places.

[ScruffytheJanitor]

Y'all are too damn gloomy - save that shit for the season. This is the season for sick line ups and irrational optimism.

92-70.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

I don't know how many games we win, but we will make the playoffs period...

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

23 hours ago, jordan said:

I like the moves Perry has made thus far, but nothing pushes the Angels in the playoff picture so far.  I do see better seasons from Sandoval and Detmers. If either or both of them pitch like a #2 or 1b, Angels could move into wild card picture.  That’s a huge IF. 

Sandavol was our #2 and Detmers had a great 2nd half and neither WON more than 7 games? 25 starts! They MUST WIN 12 games MINIMUM for us to WIN! Another season of ** 7 ** wins in 25 starts we are TOAST!

[tdawg87]

3 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Sandavol was our #2 and Detmers had a great 2nd half and neither WON more than 7 games? 25 starts! They MUST WIN 12 games MINIMUM for us to WIN! Another season of ** 7 ** wins in 25 starts we are TOAST!

Oh come on.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

20 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Oh come on.

Meaning what? Why would you prefer that your Starters give the option to a bullpen that was overworked for much of the season last year to waste their starts. They need to go consistently deeper into the game. 7 wins didn't cut it for either one last year? As the Bullpen gave their close games away hence the loses and records of the bullpen losses (Iglesias 6, Quijada 5, Loup 5, Tepera 4) all of those loses were not high leverage games! IF each of those starters win 5 of 10 of those games that's 12 wins each! and 10 out of the L column that's 83 wins & 79 Losses... AND 4 wins away from the Mariners & 3 Wins away from the RAYS WILD CARD SPOT from this last Playoffs...

[tdawg87]

4 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Meaning what? Why would you prefer that your Starters give the option to a bullpen that was overworked for much of the season last year to waste their starts. They need to go consistently deeper into the game. 7 wins didn't cut it for either one last year? As the Bullpen gave their close games away hence the loses and records of the bullpen losses (Iglesias 6, Quijada 5, Loup 5, Tepera 4) all of those loses were not high leverage games! IF each of those starters win 5 of 10 of those games that's 12 wins each! and 10 out of the L column that's 83 wins & 79 Losses... AND 4 wins away from the Mariners & 3 Wins away from the RAYS WILD CARD SPOT from this last Playoffs...

I'd assume you'd know better than to use pitcher wins for your argument.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

36 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I'd assume you'd know better than to use pitcher wins for your argument.

How many wins did we get out of the 6th spot last year?  29 Starts.... ***10*** ...   5 of those were Syndergard. Others who pitched in a 6th spot were junk -1, Silseth, -1, Barria -1, Davidson -1, Touki -1) more pitchers who started a game last year (Mayers, Hergert, Wantz, Diaz, Rosenberg)

Actually, since we didn't have any pitcher that was in the pen in Double Digit win totals then yes! Those wins were not spread out across the bullpen! They were losses per the high number of losses of each short stint reliever (Iglesias -6, Quijada -5, Loup -5, Tepera -4)

Where? Who? is going to get those 15 wins? are you suggesting that Ohtani is going to win 30 games? Since last year was his highest start totals in 28 and most innings 166...?

THE WIN ARGUMENT CAN COME FROM ANYWHERE! However, YES, Some pitcher is going to have to be credited for them!

We were 13 wins out of a TIE for a Wild Card spot with the Rays last year! 5 wins more by Sandoval & Detmers = 12 each for them. and 3 wins more from anyone else!