MLB Trade Rumors: Projected arbitration figures for the Angels

[Reveille1984]

3 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

Here's the way I look at it:

- The minimum salary for 2023 is $720K--so if you DFA both Canning and Barria and replace them with minimum salary guys, you're only saving a combined $860K (assuming for this exercise that the MLB Trade Rumors projections are accurate).  Even with a tight budget, they would likely bring back both--unless they think there's someone in the system (Daniel?  Davidson? etc.) who could step in and fill the Barria role for the minimum salary.

- I partially agree on Walsh, but the issue here is that (as we saw this season) there is literally no one else currently in the system who is capable of playing 1B and providing at least decent offense.  So if they non-tender Walsh, that would leave them with options of a) trading for a 1B, or b) signing a free agent.  Any theoretical replacement is likely to cost at least the $2.7M that's projected for Walsh, plus other assets if the replacement comes via trade.  I have a feeling they'll bring back Walsh.  They could also try a take-it-or-leave-it lowball offer to him and see what happens.

If they do end up non-tendering Walsh, Canning, and/or Barria, I'm going to take that as a sign that the budget is going be VERY tight for next season. 

Yeah, we're kind of just stuck with Walsh honestly.  I don't see us wasting resources on first base via free agency, our pipeline is kind of a wasteland at the position, and $2-3M is peanuts compared to the rest of the roster.

[Docwaukee]

3 hours ago, Trendon said:

Your previous post expressed concern that “there is literally no one else currently in the system who is capable of playing 1B and providing at least decent offense” and my point with Thaiss was simply that his 2022 production was essentially the same as Walsh’s.

So I feel like non-tendering Walsh and paying the extra $5M-$7M to get a Bell or Mancini may be worth it since the floor at 1B is essentially the same with Thaiss/Walsh.

If there is concern about Walsh's ability to recover then he won't be back.  If they keep him, then they're not concerned and he's the most cost effective option.  I agree there isn't much precedent for position players with TOS but if a pitcher can recover then so can a position player.  And, it's worth the chance of getting an above league avg hitter and solid defender at 1b for 3m.  

I think you should get Bell out of your head.  He's gonna be 15-20 per year for 4 years at least.  

Mancini might work for the price you mentioned.  Mostly because he's not been all that good outside of the one year.  But I think he'll get 3 years.  Which probably takes him off our radar.  

If Walsh is legit healthy, his body of work over the last three years is at or better than either of those guys if you give him a bit of grace for the injury.   He's a better defender that either one as well.  

[AngelStew43]

Everyone will be tendered except Wallach.  Canning has too much potential at this point to be a non-tender.  

[Angel Oracle]

Serious question:

If Ward can rebound from injury to hit like he did for two years, why can’t Walsh do the same thing?

Both kicked arse at the plate from 2020 through May 2022.

Why should Walsh be a sure thing to not rebound, when Ward did?

[Docwaukee]

3 hours ago, Trendon said:

Your previous post expressed concern that “there is literally no one else currently in the system who is capable of playing 1B and providing at least decent offense” and my point with Thaiss was simply that his 2022 production was essentially the same as Walsh’s.

So I feel like non-tendering Walsh and paying the extra $5M-$7M to get a Bell or Mancini may be worth it since the floor at 1B is essentially the same with Thaiss/Walsh.

If there is concern about Walsh's ability to recover then he won't be back.  If they keep him, then they're not concerned and he's the most cost effective option.  I agree there isn't much precedent for position players with TOS but if a pitcher can recover then so can a position player.  And, it's worth the chance of getting an above league avg hitter and solid defender at 1b for 3m.  

I think you should get Bell out of your head.  He's gonna be 15-20 per year for 4 years at least.  

Mancini might work for the price you mentioned.  Mostly because he's not been all that good outside of the one year.  But I think he'll get 3 years.  Which probably takes him off our radar.  

If Walsh is legit healthy, his body of work over the last three years is at or better than either of those guys if you give him a bit of grace for the injury.   He's a better defender that either one as well.  

[Docwaukee]

19 minutes ago, AngelStew43 said:

Everyone will be tendered except Wallach.  Canning has too much potential at this point to be a non-tender.  

you save almost nothing by non-tendering Canning.  If they let him go it's because they think he's broken.  

[jsnpritchett]

3 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Serious question:

If Ward can rebound from injury to hit like he did for two years, why can’t Walsh do the same thing?

Both kicked arse at the plate from 2020 through May 2022.

Why should Walsh be a sure thing to not rebound, when Ward did?

Let's not go crazy with Ward.  In his limited action in '20-'21, his OPS+ was 104.  That said, yes, he was fantastic on either side of his injury-dampened stretch this year.

[Angels_Make_Me_Drink]

I don't expect Wallach back next year; Canning is toast as well. Walsh will be back; he's serviceable when healthy. We don't want to create another position of need if we can at least be serviceable there. I hope they work out an extension with Sandy. It would be nice to get a rotation piece locked in with Ohtani pending a mega deal. 

[jsnpritchett]

6 minutes ago, Angels_Make_Me_Drink said:

I don't expect Wallach back next year; Canning is toast as well. Walsh will be back; he's serviceable when healthy. We don't want to create another position of need if we can at least be serviceable there. I hope they work out an extension with Sandy. It would be nice to get a rotation piece locked in with Ohtani pending a mega deal. 

I'd be a little surprised if they did an extension with Sandoval at this point.  I'm a big fan of his (especially if he can limit his walks), but I'm not quite sure he's shown enough for the Angels to do a long-term extension yet.  They control him for four more years.  From the Angels standpoint, it might make more sense to wait another year before talking extension and buying out some free agent years a) again because of the ownership situation and b) just to make sure he can sustain his growth over the past year+.  Of course they'd run the risk of him improving even more and costing them more on the back end of the extension, but it's probably worth the risk to wait from their standpoint.

 

[Angels_Make_Me_Drink]

10 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

I'd be a little surprised if they did an extension with Sandoval at this point.  I'm a big fan of his (especially if he can limit his walks), but I'm not quite sure he's shown enough for the Angels to do a long-term extension yet.  They control him for four more years.  From the Angels standpoint, it might make more sense to wait another year before talking extension and buying out some free agent years a) again because of the ownership situation and b) just to make sure he can sustain his growth over the past year+.  Of course they'd run the risk of him improving even more and costing them more on the back end of the extension, but it's probably worth the risk to wait from their standpoint.

 

Ahh thanks for the heads up. I didn't do the research; didn't realize that he still had 4 more years of control. In that case, yes I 100% agree with you and sit on it for a year at least. 

[ukyah]

5 hours ago, Trendon said:

Your previous post expressed concern that “there is literally no one else currently in the system who is capable of playing 1B and providing at least decent offense” and my point with Thaiss was simply that his 2022 production was essentially the same as Walsh’s.

So I feel like non-tendering Walsh and paying the extra $5M-$7M to get a Bell or Mancini may be worth it since the floor at 1B is essentially the same with Thaiss/Walsh.

it's fine with me if you look at the 2022 numbers in limited at bats for thaiss and conclude that thaiss is equal to walsh, but i don't agree. walsh has performed at a way higher mlb level than thaiss has even sniffed.

the talk of dfa'ing walsh is crazy to me. you just pay him his 2 or 3 million, which is very little mlb dollars, and then feel free to use him as a bench 1b/of. he'd be a pretty good answer for that on a contending team. or you can give him his chance to start or platoon. cutting him would be moronic.

[ukyah]

41 minutes ago, Angels_Make_Me_Drink said:

I don't expect Wallach back next year; Canning is toast as well. Walsh will be back; he's serviceable when healthy. We don't want to create another position of need if we can at least be serviceable there. I hope they work out an extension with Sandy. It would be nice to get a rotation piece locked in with Ohtani pending a mega deal. 

 

baseball fans are so finicky. canning isn't toast he's injured. the dude is 26 years old, and he's had some moderate success in mlb. the money, just like walsh, is small potatoes. you sign him and then use him as you see fit. you don't have to count on him as a starter. use him for whatever role you want to, but letting him go over a couple million or less is dumb.

[Docwaukee]

14 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

I'd be a little surprised if they did an extension with Sandoval at this point.  I'm a big fan of his (especially if he can limit his walks), but I'm not quite sure he's shown enough for the Angels to do a long-term extension yet.  They control him for four more years.  From the Angels standpoint, it might make more sense to wait another year before talking extension and buying out some free agent years a) again because of the ownership situation and b) just to make sure he can sustain his growth over the past year+.  Of course they'd run the risk of him improving even more and costing them more on the back end of the extension, but it's probably worth the risk to wait from their standpoint.

 

I don't think you can actually repeat the ownership thing enough frankly.   It's gonna have a major impact on this off season.  Perhaps in ways we're not even sure of yet.  

[BTH]

2 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

I think you should get Bell out of your head.  He's gonna be 15-20 per year for 4 years at least. 

1B don’t really get those types of deals.

I don’t know who is gonna give Josh Bell 4/$60M-4/$80M.

But if the price did get that high, of course he isn’t a realistic option for the Angels.

[jsnpritchett]

8 minutes ago, Trendon said:

1B don’t really get those types of deals.

I don’t know who is gonna give Josh Bell 4/$60M-4/$80M.

But if the price did get that high, of course he isn’t a realistic option for the Angels.

He already made $10M this year, so it's doubtful he wouldn't get at least some bump from that in free agency (even though I definitely wouldn't want to be the one giving him $15-20M AAV).

[Jeff Fletcher]

I would be very surprised if they non-tendered any of those guys except Wallach. The salaries are all pretty low for what they did. 

And I think that’s high on Canning. I believe there was a similar case a few years ago where a guy was hurt the entire season before his first arb year and he got about $100k over the minimum, so that would be $800k.

[jsnpritchett]

14 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I would be very surprised if they non-tendered any of those guys except Wallach. The salaries are all pretty low for what they did. 

And I think that’s high on Canning. I believe there was a similar case a few years ago where a guy was hurt the entire season before his first arb year and he got about $100k over the minimum, so that would be $800k.

$820K if they do that.  The minimum next year goes up to $720K. 

[Tank]

11 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

First you would try and trade any player you want too non tender. Arte is cashing out, so I think Walsh will be gone. Barria could be trade and Wallach is DFA. If Arte really wants to cut budget Rengifo, Sandoval, Ward and Ohtani could be traded. I think new owner will not want that. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

13 hours ago, TempeAngel said:

Ok, what is your plan to upgrade the offense for

next year?

@Stradling

@Docwaukee

@jsnpritchett

Keep Trout, Walsh, Ward, Fletch, and Rendon healthy all season for once. Audition O'Hoppe and Soto in ST and promote if warranted.  I would rather sign another SP, and find a couple of good bullpen pieces.

If Soto is for real, and lands the everyday SS, and Rendon at 3B, Fletch at 2B. They need to decide where to play Rengifo. Adell doesn't seem to hit big league pitching often enough to get an everyday job on a team desperate to make the playoffs. I know what some will say but LF is a position of need and if Soto were able to make the team out of ST, Rengifo could takes some reps in LF. I know it probably won't happen because l doubt Soto makes the cut out of camp, but you never know.

[T.G.]

12 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Serious question:

If Ward can rebound from injury to hit like he did for two years, why can’t Walsh do the same thing?

Both kicked arse at the plate from 2020 through May 2022.

Why should Walsh be a sure thing to not rebound, when Ward did?

Thank you for clarifying that yours is a "serious question." 

To answer your question.  It is quite possible Walsh can rebound.

That was easy.

[AngelStew43]

20 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

you save almost nothing by non-tendering Canning.  If they let him go it's because they think he's broken.  

He may be broken now, but the potential fix is relatively minor.  Repair the back, do the rehab, and he's still a young pitcher with a good arm.

The big problem here is that back trouble lingers.  Very seldom does it go away on its own.  And, it tends to flare up when physical activity is ramped up.  I think Canning should consider surgery, but what do I know?   

[TempeAngel]

On 10/11/2022 at 1:47 AM, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Keep Trout, Walsh, Ward, Fletch, and Rendon healthy all season for once. Audition O'Hoppe and Soto in ST and promote if warranted.  I would rather sign another SP, and find a couple of good bullpen pieces.

 

Yes. this is how I feel with one exception. We need to upgrade at 1B. Walsh is not the answer and 1B is a premium offensive position.

So O'Hoppe and Soto could be in the opening day lineup. I like what I have seen from both of them. Fletcher and Rengifo are other low cost middle infield additions to the 2023 roster and can be part of the opening day lineup. Adell will still only be 23 on opening day. The Angels will not give up on him in 2023. I think he will evolve but let's have a backup plan. Use the remaining budget on pitching and to upgrade 1B.

I like the idea of signing Trey Mancini. He is a great fit. He is better than Walsh at 1B and better than Adell in LF.

[jsnpritchett]

3 minutes ago, TempeAngel said:

Yes. this is how I feel with one exception. We need to upgrade at 1B. Walsh is not the answer and 1B is a premium offensive position.

So O'Hoppe and Soto could be in the opening day lineup. I like what I have seen from both of them. Fletcher and Rengifo are other low cost middle infield additions to the 2023 roster and can be part of the opening day lineup. Adell will still only be 23 on opening day. The Angels will not give up on him in 2023. I think he will evolve but let's have a backup plan. Use the remaining budget on pitching and to upgrade 1B.

I like the idea of signing Trey Mancini. He is a great fit. He is better than Walsh at 1B and better than Adell in LF.

How are Soto, Rengifo, and Fletcher all in the opening day lineup?  Are you just anticipating that Rendon will get hurt again?  Ha.

Mancini is a big whatever for me.  I think people somewhat overvalue him because he's a feel-good story.  He's not a particularly good defender at either position he plays (his OF defense this past year looks freakishly good on some metrics compared to past years...not sure if it's anything other than noise from a fairly small sample size).  His OPS+ was 101 this season (good for 1.3 bWAR and 0.9 fWAR).  He made $7.5M this year and will likely get at least that in AAV in the off-season.  I'd say it's roughly even money on whether a healthy Walsh can outperform him.  Not worth the gamble to me, given what he'll likely cost.

 

 

[Duren, Duren]

Walsh was an all star the year before. Got off to a good start this year. Injuries led to him compensating and adjusting till he lost his swing and his confidence. If he comes back healthy and fresh he still is the best option at first. And he's a solid fielder as well. Plus he is part of the team chemistry. More pressing priorities without seeking out another first baseman.  

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

3 hours ago, TempeAngel said:

Yes. this is how I feel with one exception. We need to upgrade at 1B. Walsh is not the answer and 1B is a premium offensive position.

So O'Hoppe and Soto could be in the opening day lineup. I like what I have seen from both of them. Fletcher and Rengifo are other low cost middle infield additions to the 2023 roster and can be part of the opening day lineup. Adell will still only be 23 on opening day. The Angels will not give up on him in 2023. I think he will evolve but let's have a backup plan. Use the remaining budget on pitching and to upgrade 1B.

I like the idea of signing Trey Mancini. He is a great fit. He is better than Walsh at 1B and better than Adell in LF.

Walsh was AS in 2021, but he played hurt most of last season. I'd like to see how he plays in ST after recovering from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery.