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MLB Trade Rumors: Projected arbitration figures for the Angels


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I think Wallach was one that we may have left off in discussions of possible arb-eligible guys.  I imagine they'll probably just non-tender him.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/10/mlb-projected-arbitration-salaries-2023.html

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Wallach probably gets DFA’d before the non-tender deadline.

Canning is tricky because it feels like he hasn’t been healthy for 2 years, and I still don’t know if he’ll be healthy in 2023.

$2.7M for Walsh feels hefty, considering he’s coming back from an injury, he was awful last season, and the Angels’ budget might be tight.

I also wonder if Barría gets non-tendered. Might depend on how tight the budget is.

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6 minutes ago, Trendon said:

Wallach probably gets DFA’d before the non-tender deadline.

Canning is tricky because it feels like he hasn’t been healthy for 2 years, and I still don’t know if he’ll be healthy in 2023.

$2.7M for Walsh feels hefty, considering he’s coming back from an injury, he was awful last season, and the Angels’ budget might be tight.

I also wonder if Barría gets non-tendered. Might depend on how tight the budget is.

Here's the way I look at it:

- The minimum salary for 2023 is $720K--so if you DFA both Canning and Barria and replace them with minimum salary guys, you're only saving a combined $860K (assuming for this exercise that the MLB Trade Rumors projections are accurate).  Even with a tight budget, they would likely bring back both--unless they think there's someone in the system (Daniel?  Davidson? etc.) who could step in and fill the Barria role for the minimum salary.

- I partially agree on Walsh, but the issue here is that (as we saw this season) there is literally no one else currently in the system who is capable of playing 1B and providing at least decent offense.  So if they non-tender Walsh, that would leave them with options of a) trading for a 1B, or b) signing a free agent.  Any theoretical replacement is likely to cost at least the $2.7M that's projected for Walsh, plus other assets if the replacement comes via trade.  I have a feeling they'll bring back Walsh.  They could also try a take-it-or-leave-it lowball offer to him and see what happens.

If they do end up non-tendering Walsh, Canning, and/or Barria, I'm going to take that as a sign that the budget is going be VERY tight for next season. 

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If they're going to bring back Walsh to see if he improves due to health, and lack of the shift, then they'd better find a right handed hitting first baseman that mashes left handers who he can platoon with...and no I don't mean Albert. The Angels were 29th in OPS at the first base position this season.

Considering the amount of money they've gambled on other injury prone starting pitchers in the past, keeping Canning, and Barria around should be a no brainer.

My guess is everyone on that list gets tendered except Wallach unless they sign, or make a trade, for a starting first baseman.

 

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21 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

- I partially agree on Walsh, but the issue here is that (as we saw this season) there is literally no one else currently in the system who is capable of playing 1B and providing at least decent offense.  So if they non-tender Walsh, that would leave them with options of a) trading for a 1B, or b) signing a free agent.  Any theoretical replacement is likely to cost at least the $2.7M that's projected for Walsh, plus other assets if the replacement comes via trade.  I have a feeling they'll bring back Walsh.  They could also try a take-it-or-leave-it lowball offer to him and see what happens.

FWIW:

Thaiss: .217/.321/.319, .640 OPS, 83 wRC+

Walsh: .215/.269/.374, .642 OPS 78 wRC+

Obviously Walsh has a better track record, but he’d also be $2M more than Thaiss (who hasn’t had an extended MLB opportunity) and is coming off major surgery.

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1 minute ago, Trendon said:

FWIW:

Thaiss: .217/.321/.319, .640 OPS, 83 wRC+

Walsh: .215/.269/.374, .642 OPS 78 wRC+

Obviously Walsh has a better track record, but he’d also be $2M more than Thaiss (who hasn’t had an extended MLB opportunity) and is coming off major surgery.

Sure, I get that.  But if Thaiss is the starting 1B for the Angels next season, I have a feeling it will be a disastrous season (unless they somehow manager to sign a premium free-agent SS or upgrade LF).

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First you would try and trade any player you want too non tender. Arte is cashing out, so I think Walsh will be gone. Barria could be trade and Wallach is DFA. If Arte really wants to cut budget Rengifo, Sandoval, Ward and Ohtani could be traded. I think new owner will not want that. 

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1B is really the only field position there is to upgrade the offense. Adell is just 23, too young to give up on.

SS/2B will be fine with Rengifo/Soto/Fletcher.

Walsh is terrible. Look at his numbers versus RHP's this year. He'll be 30 next year. We know what he is.

Spending a little at 1B would be the best way to upgrade the offense and would show that they are letting Perry try to win.

Josh Bell or Trey Mancini is the way to go.

 

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IMO, All of these guys are getting Tendered. There is not a cheaper way to fill 6 spots for 14M.

Wallach is the only one who might get non-tendered, and if they do that, they're committing to Thaiss for the backup catcher role until O'Hoppe takes over the main catching role and Stassi is the backup.

Wallach allows them to carry three catchers if Thaiss is also on the team as a INF.

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1 minute ago, TempeAngel said:

1B is really the only field position there is to upgrade the offense. Adell is just 23, too young to give up on.

SS/2B will be fine with Rengifo/Soto/Fletcher.

Walsh is terrible. Look at his numbers versus RHP's this year.

Spending a little at 1B would be the best way to upgrade the offense and would show that they are letting Perry try to win.

Josh Bell or even Trey Mancini is the way to go.

 

Trey Mancini had worse numbers with the Astros than Walsh did here, but I think he's the perfect fit, because of his prior career. Thaiss is left handed.

Walsh was "hurt" but I still have faith he can be a regular.

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Walsh had a 126 wRC+ last year

This year through 70 games his wRC+ was 119

He tanked his next 50 games when he could barely swing a bat.  

Over the past three seasons up until his injury he had 963 PA in 245 games and 127 wRC+

So we're gonna take the 15% of his last 3 seasons where he was injured and dump him to save 2mil?  

And while I agree they should have a capable backup and/or someone who can platoon with him, but not giving him a chance to return to form is absurd.  

 

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5 minutes ago, TempeAngel said:

1B is really the only field position there is to upgrade the offense. Adell is just 23, too young to give up on.

SS/2B will be fine with Rengifo/Soto/Fletcher.

Walsh is terrible. Look at his numbers versus RHP's this year.

Spending a little at 1B would be the best way to upgrade the offense and would show that they are letting Perry try to win.

Josh Bell or even Trey Mancini is the way to go.

 

Bell made $10M this season.  Mancini made $7.5M.  Each will get a free agent deal of more than $10M AAV in all likelihood (in Bell's case, likely well above).  Unless the new ownership situation is settled quickly, I have a hard time seeing either as a realistic option (and even if the ownership situation is resolved quickly, I'm not necessarily sure either would be a great fit...).

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7 minutes ago, TempeAngel said:

Walsh is terrible. Look at his numbers versus RHP's this year.

I just did.  Before he was injured, he had a 127 wRC+ and it was 100 vs. lefties.  

Walsh has an actual track record for success prior to his injury.  Assuming he's recovered appropriately, you aren't going to get anywhere close to the type of production he's had when healthy for the amount of money he's gonna make.  

Adell is 23 and too young to give up on.  But he's really sucked so far and given no indication that he's gonna stop sucking anytime soon.  Same think with Moniak.  

You got a much better chance of A Walsh, new LFer and bench bat producing at a much higher level for WAY cheaper than a new 1bman, Adell and Moniak producing similarly.  

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4 minutes ago, TempeAngel said:

Ok, what is your plan to upgrade the offense for

next year?

@Stradling

@Docwaukee

@jsnpritchett

 

2 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

I just did.  Before he was injured, he had a 127 wRC+ and it was 100 vs. lefties.  

Walsh has an actual track record for success prior to his injury.  Assuming he's recovered appropriately, you aren't going to get anywhere close to the type of production he's had when healthy for the amount of money he's gonna make.  

Adell is 23 and too young to give up on.  But he's really sucked so far and given no indication that he's gonna stop sucking anytime soon.  Same think with Moniak.  

You got a much better chance of A Walsh, new LFer and bench bat producing at a much higher level for WAY cheaper than a new 1bman, Adell and Moniak producing similarly.  

What Doc just posted is a good start.

But, honestly, I think it's borderline pointless to even speculate on specific upgrade targets until we have a better sense of what the ownership situation will be.  If Moreno's team is the one making the decisions for '23, as I've stated numerous times elsewhere, I think the "upgrades" will be minimal at best.

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7 minutes ago, TempeAngel said:

1B is really the only field position there is to upgrade the offense. Adell is just 23, too young to give up on.

SS/2B will be fine with Rengifo/Soto/Fletcher.

Walsh is terrible. Look at his numbers versus RHP's this year.

Spending a little at 1B would be the best way to upgrade the offense and would show that they are letting Perry try to win.

Josh Bell or even Trey Mancini is the way to go.

 

I think Mancini is the perfect fit.

He offers solid production at 1B and LF, our two biggest positional question marks. Mancini could platoon with Walsh at 1B and Adell in LF, which would give some stability and still allow enough playing time for Walsh/Adell to "break out". 

As for 2B/SS, while entering the season with just Rengifo/Soto/Fletcher isnt the worst thing in the world, I would still prefer they sign a middle infielder and push Fletcher to the UT role. Someone like Drury would be perfect.

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4 minutes ago, TempeAngel said:

Ok, what is your plan to upgrade the offense for

next year?

@Stradling

@Docwaukee

@jsnpritchett

how much money do I get?  

My guess is it'll be around 20-30m max above the near 160m they're already at if you include those arb estimates.  

First, with that budget I agree they shouldn't touch the MIF.  As much as I'd like an upgrade there it's either long expensive deals or no one I'm excited about.  

Let's start with the easy one.  An upgrade to Kurt Suzuki.  Someone who isn't a total black hole at the plate

My next two guys are some combo of being able to backup SS, 2b, 3b, and 1b and get near a seasons worth of PA each.  It's not sexy but I'd be fine with some combo of league avg offense and defense from both of them.  And that's gonna be more expensive than people want to spend on 'bench' guys but just because they're not called starters doesn't mean they're not gonna play as much as your top 9.  Hell, if we go by the last few years, they'll play more.  

I'm definitely leaving enough room for a starter of ok quality.  

If any money is left I'm getting a 3-4m reliever or perhaps a 1yr deal on a closer for more.  

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2 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

Sure, I get that.  But if Thaiss is the starting 1B for the Angels next season, I have a feeling it will be a disastrous season (unless they somehow manager to sign a premium free-agent SS or upgrade LF).

Your previous post expressed concern that “there is literally no one else currently in the system who is capable of playing 1B and providing at least decent offense” and my point with Thaiss was simply that his 2022 production was essentially the same as Walsh’s.

So I feel like non-tendering Walsh and paying the extra $5M-$7M to get a Bell or Mancini may be worth it since the floor at 1B is essentially the same with Thaiss/Walsh.

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1 minute ago, Trendon said:

Your previous post expressed concern that “there is literally no one else currently in the system who is capable of playing 1B and providing at least decent offense” and my point with Thaiss was simply that his 2022 production was essentially the same as Walsh’s.

So I feel like non-tendering Walsh and paying the extra $5M-$7M to get a Bell or Mancini may be worth it since the floor at 1B is essentially the same with Thaiss/Walsh.

My comment still stands.  I don't think Thaiss will provide decent offense for a 1B.  You're taking Walsh at his absolute worst and kind of assuming he won't be better.

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8 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

My comment still stands.  I don't think Thaiss will provide decent offense for a 1B.  You're taking Walsh at his absolute worst and kind of assuming he won't be better.

My biggest concern with Walsh is the injury and how he recovers from it.

Thoracic outlet surgery has ended many pitchers’ careers. While Walsh isn’t a pitcher, there aren’t many examples of a position player getting TOS and I think it’d be stupid to expect a full recovery in 2023.

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1 minute ago, Trendon said:

My biggest concern with Walsh is the injury and how he recovers from it.

Thoracic outlet surgery has ended many pitchers’ careers. While Walsh isn’t a pitcher, there aren’t many examples of a position player getting TOS and I think it’d be stupid to expect a full recovery in 2023.

I certainly don't think Walsh returning to his 2021 level is a done deal and I think it's important that they try to add a capable alternative in some form or fashion.  I'm just not convinced that they will actually do so if the ownership situation isn't cleared up quickly.  I know I sound like a broken record on that point, but I think it clouds everything right now.

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19 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

I know I sound like a broken record on that point, but I think it clouds everything right now.

That’s the big thing.

I agree that the likely scenario is they just roll with Walsh.

But IF payroll was super tight and/or needed to be slashed, I could see them parting with Walsh because they can’t spend close to $3M on a question mark.

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