OC Register: Hoornstra: Closing arguments in Shohei Ohtani vs. Aaron Judge, and other MLB awards races

[AngelsWin.com]

I cannot remember a baseball awards race debated so fiercely and stubbornly by its adherents quite like the Shohei Ohtani/Aaron Judge duel for the 2022 American League Most Valuable Player Award.

Can we give one of them the National League MVP award, just this one time?

Three weeks ago, I tried to capture the essential arguments on both sides. Judge has since surpassed Roger Maris’ AL home run record. The New York Yankees’ slugger will finish the season a few hundredths of a point shy of the batting average title he needs to win a triple crown. Of the 15 AL batting seasons with a higher adjusted OPS+ than Judge, eight belong to Babe Ruth and four belong to Ted Williams.

To eclipse Judge’s value in the eyes of voters, Ohtani faces a tall task by 2022 standards. The Angels’ two-way star must overcome the math provided by every version of Wins Above Replacement, all of which favor Judge.

Or does he?

An astute reader emailed me a couple of weeks ago to point out a possible shortcoming of WAR, and virtually every other counting stat we have: it fails to account for the fact that Ohtani effectively played 181 regular-season games in 2022 (153 as a DH, 28 as a pitcher).

Combine the nearly 700 times Ohtani stood in a batter’s box with the nearly 700 batters he faced on the mound, and you start to get an idea of the fullness of that workload. It’s roughly twice that of a full-time one-way player – something Ohtani couldn’t say during his 2021 MVP campaign, when he “only” pitched to 533 batters.

This reader contended that the statistical framework for Total Runs (a stat introduced in 2009) is better at capturing the value associated with Ohtani’s full workload. The Fielding Bible website breaks down how Ohtani derived his league-leading 195 Total Runs going into Wednesday’s game. The reader argued (with spreadsheets!) that Ohtani’s value is closer to Barry Bonds’ historic 2002 season than Judge’s 2022 season.

I’ll spare you the math. My impression is that most fans have been dead-set on a winner for weeks, ready to fight to the death on behalf of Their Guy. My main takeaway is not that Ohtani should win this award over Judge, but that we’re witnessing two of the best seasons ever. They just happen to be taking place in the same year, in the same league. Maybe the real AL MVP is the enemies we made along the way.

Here’s my breakdown of the other postseason awards races, excluding the NL Cy Young, for which I hold a vote.

NL MVP

There is no favorite in this race anymore – not even a pair of favorites, like in the AL – so long as voters did not make up their minds weeks ago, when St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt appeared to be running away with the award.

Goldschmidt, like teammate Nolan Arenado and the Dodgers’ Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, have seen their chances slip away as their bats fell quiet into autumn. The main benefactor has been Padres third baseman Manny Machado, alone in the San Diego spotlight following the suspension of Fernando Tatís Jr.

The best players in the National League this season all play for the best teams; the trade of Juan Soto to the Padres made that obvious. But it isn’t clear who the MVP of the Cardinals, the Dodgers, the Atlanta Braves, or the New York Mets is. Machado doesn’t have that problem, which could be enough to tip the voting in his favor.

AL Cy Young

The award will likely go to the Houston Astros’ Justin Verlander, the Chicago White Sox’s Dylan Cease or Ohtani. Each leads one of the publicly available versions of WAR/WARP.

Verlander has a longer track record of success than almost any active starting pitcher, and is authoring a cool comeback story from Tommy John surgery. Arguably only two pitchers older than 30 at the time of their surgery – John himself, and Hall of Famer John Smoltz – have bounced back stronger after having an elbow ligament replaced. That helps his case.

Strictly by the numbers, this three-horse race is a toss-up. Ohtani has been the most dominant at his peak, able to summon a strikeout almost at will but preferring to focus on eliciting soft contact to elongate each start. Cease has thrown the most innings of the three, and he has consistently had one of the best ERAs despite pitching in front of one of baseball’s worst team defenses. Verlander’s Deserved Runs Average suggests he’s gotten more help from his defense than some pitchers, but not enough to disqualify him from the win.

At 39, he’ll also lead the AL in wins (18) and ERA (1.75), and that will probably matter more than it should.

AL ROOKIE

There are two frontrunners to be chosen for the top rookie in each league: one obvious pick, and one hipster pick. Each race is a matter of taste. Do any voters blast Neutral Milk Hotel and sip $6 coffee while driving their Saab?

In the AL, the obvious choice is Seattle Mariners center fielder Julio Rodriguez. He leads all rookies in home runs and RBIs and is second only to Kansas City shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. in stolen bases. At 21 years old, he played a critical role in ending the Mariners’ record 21-year playoff drought.

The less obvious pick is Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman. The 24-year-old batted .256 with an .814 OPS while holding his own among the game’s best defensive catchers. The Orioles’ pitching staff jumped from 15th to ninth in both ERA and FIP compared to 2021. A more telling stat: Baltimore went 50-34 when Rutschman started and 33-35 when he didn’t.

NL ROOKIE

No NL rookie has more home runs (19), RBIs (64) or runs scored (75) than Atlanta Braves outfielder Michael Harris II. He is second among NL rookies in stolen bases and tied for eighth among all center fielders in Outs Above Average. Harris, 21, grew up just outside Atlanta and had never played a game above High-A before this season. There is no shame if, like me, you had never heard of him before he was promoted from Double-A in May.

The hipster pick isn’t subtle in his brilliance, but Spencer Strider’s mustache channels the ghost of Old Hoss Radbourn as much as his right arm. Strider was arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball on a per-inning basis for the Braves. His stats (2.67 ERA, 1.88 FIP, 0.99 WHIP) speak volumes, even if his innings total (131-2/3) disqualified him from the mainstream leaderboards.

AL MANAGER

Terry Francona has won the award twice, and he might have the inside track to win another. The Cleveland Guardians’ record was above .500 when he stepped away for health reasons in July 2021, and below .500 thereafter. This season the Guardians were the surprise first-place team in the AL Central with Francona on the bench from start to finish.

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Baltimore’s Brandon Hyde could receive even more voter support in proportion to the Orioles’ one-year turnaround, although his team missed the postseason. Three-time MOY Dusty Baker guided the Astros to the American League’s best record. They will try to unseat Tampa Bay Rays manager Kevin Cash, who has won the award the last two seasons.

NL MANAGER

Rob Thomson became the Philadelphia Phillies’ manager when Joe Girardi was fired on June 3, guided the team to a 14-2 record out of the gate, grabbed a wild-card berth and never looked back. If managing only 109 games doesn’t disqualify him in the eyes of voters, Thomson is the obvious choice.

If not, this would be a good year to end Dave Roberts’ streak of being snubbed for his role in the Dodgers’ annual success. No team in Brooklyn or Los Angeles had ever won 111 games before this season. Oliver Marmol has drawn rave reviews for his role in the Cardinals’ continued success, while Bob Melvin deserves credit for steering the Padres away from another late-season collapse.

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[Dtwncbad]

Eclipsing one specific old record doesn’t make you more valuable overall than another player.  Neither does winning (or contending for) the “Triple Crown.”

Ohtani is establishing all kinds of NEW records.  And no, he isn’t challenging for the “Triple Crown”. . . But let’s remind ourselves that the “Triple Crown” didn’t exist until somebody did it for the first time.  Ohtani is doing things this year that have never been done before and therefore there is no name for what he is doing.

Judge has been a monster offensively and there isn’t really an exact injustice if he wins the MVP since the votes are subjective.  You gotta accept some “whatever” in this thing.

But I will repeat this forever.  Any GM, if they could go back to opening day and pick one player to be on their team (knowing what they know now of what you get out of Judge and Ohtani), would pick Ohtani to be on their team over Judge.

That is what I believe and I think I am right.

[Angelsjunky]

45 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Eclipsing one specific old record doesn’t make you more valuable overall than another player.  Neither does winning (or contending for) the “Triple Crown.”

Ohtani is establishing all kinds of NEW records.  And no, he isn’t challenging for the “Triple Crown”. . . But let’s remind ourselves that the “Triple Crown” didn’t exist until somebody did it for the first time.  Ohtani is doing things this year that have never been done before and therefore there is no name for what he is doing.

Judge has been a monster offensively and there isn’t really an exact injustice if he wins the MVP since the votes are subjective.  You gotta accept some “whatever” in this thing.

But I will repeat this forever.  Any GM, if they could go back to opening day and pick one player to be on their team (knowing what they know now of what you get out of Judge and Ohtani), would pick Ohtani to be on their team over Judge.

That is what I believe and I think I am right.

Regarding your last full paragraph, I don't think that equates with who deserves the MVP, which is about 2022 and 2022 only. It is too general and vague. The question could rather be, "Knowing how both players would perform, which player would GMs prefer on their team for the year, and more specifically, which player contributes more to the win column?"

WAR's answer is Judge. Now WAR might be wrong. I think there's a valid argument to be made that Ohtani illustrate the imperfectness of WAR. But it is also the best we currently have, as far as a single statistic that signifies overall value. 

But even if we find WAR to be a somewhat accurate metric of overall value, there's still the problem of context. Meaning, it depends on the team - as some teams would be better served by adding Judge, others by adding Ohtani. For instance, let's say you have a team with great pitching but mediocre offense. Who do you pick? I think the answer would be Aaron Judge, who contributed 40% more offensive value (via 86.0 Offensive Runs) than any other player, and more than Trout (42.3) and Ohtani (31.7) combined. But let's say you have a weak rotation but great offense? Ohtani--who was Cy Young caliber, albeit in only 166 IP--would be more valuable. 

The irony here is that Judge vs. Ohtani is forcing us to consider more traditional elements, and those not easily quantifiable by any statistic or set of statistics. Even ignoring WAR, Judge had the best offensive season since Barry Bonds, and one of the twenty or so best seasons by a hitter in baseball history. At the same time, Ohtani combined Cy Young caliber performance while being one of the twenty best hitters in the game (according to wRC+ and Offensive Runs).

On the other hand, if we look at which performance we're most likely never to see again, the answer is almost certainly Ohtani. There are several players who are conceivably capable of a Judge-esque season: Trout, Harper, Soto, maybe peak Pujols. Meaning, a healthy Trout who plays 155+ games and combines the best of his hitting, defense, and baserunning all in one season, gets to 11 WAR. A Bryce Harper who somehow manages to avoid both the DL and a slump could conceivably perform at Judge's level (his 197 wRC+ in 2015 wasn't that far off). Before 2022's (probably aberrational) drop-off, people were dreaming big on Juan Soto. But there is no player that is even close to capable of doing what Ohtani is doing. But does that equate to more value (as in Most Valuable Player) or is it something more historic?

The bottom line: There is no perfect answer, and I think we come to a place similar to the old adage, "vote for the lesser of two evils." I personally think the lesser evil means denying Ohtani and giving Judge the award because, in the end, by our current best available metrics, he was more valuable. But I don't think it is unthinkable to give it to Ohtani.

 

 

 

Edited October 6, 2022 by Angelsjunky

[Dtwncbad]

11 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

egarding your last full paragraph, I don't think that equates with who deserves the MVP, which is about 2022 and 2022 only. It is too general and vague. The question could rather be, "Knowing how both players would perform, which player would GMs prefer on their team for the year, and more specifically, which player contributes more to the win column?"

My last full paragraph IS about 2022 alone.  I think any rational GM would pick 2022 Ohtani over 2022 Judge if all he cared about is winning.

[Angelsjunky]

51 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

My last full paragraph IS about 2022 alone.  I think any rational GM would pick 2022 Ohtani over 2022 Judge if all he cared about is winning.

So you don't think the needs of the team are a factor? 

I find your second sentence to be...irrational. There's a rational argument for either player, because they're both amazing. What is irrational is saying there's no argument, no reason to think the other guy (whoever that may be) deserves it.

[Dtwncbad]

4 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

So you don't think the needs of the team are a factor? 

I find your second sentence to be...irrational. There's a rational argument for either player, because they're both amazing. What is irrational is saying there's no argument, no reason to think the other guy (whoever that may be) deserves it.

Every team “needs” good pitching and good hitting.  No, I don’t think individual team need is very relevant at all.

The award is supposed to be the most valuable player in the league.

Let’s just talk about judge for a second.  If the Yankees would have led the AL in OPS without Judge, then you would view Judge less favorably in the MVP consideration??

Look I think the award is MOSTLY about who is the best player in the league.  But they include some language to allow for some consideration to intangibles.

Somehow, the consideration to intangibles takes over with people overthinking the whole thing, starving for some interesting context.

For me the bottom line is I don’t believe for a second that Judge’s 2022 helps any team win more than Ohtani’s 2022.

But everyone can have their own view.

 

 

 

[tdawg87]

I think Judge will win easily, but I want Ohtani to win just to witness the meltdown from Yankees fans. Heyman will probably call Ohtani a racial slur in a tweet. It would be such an incredible tantrum.

[Angelsjunky]

17 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Every team “needs” good pitching and good hitting.  No, I don’t think individual team need is very relevant at all.

The award is supposed to be the most valuable player in the league.

Let’s just talk about judge for a second.  If the Yankees would have led the AL in OPS without Judge, then you would view Judge less favorably in the MVP consideration??

Look I think the award is MOSTLY about who is the best player in the league.  But they include some language to allow for some consideration to intangibles.

Somehow, the consideration to intangibles takes over with people overthinking the whole thing, starving for some interesting context.

For me the bottom line is I don’t believe for a second that Judge’s 2022 helps any team win more than Ohtani’s 2022.

But everyone can have their own view.

 

 

 

The needs of the team are among the intangibles. Among other factors. When you consider a variety of intangibles, there's no clear, formulaic approach that decides the MVP this year, or in many years. Some years it isn't so clear, like this one - and that is entirely due to the unique nature of Ohtani. If Ohtani was a hitter with 9.5 WAR (say, a peak Trout season), no one would think he should be MVP over Judge with his 11.4 WAR. But because that 9.5 WAR is a combination of pitching (5.6) and hitting (3.9), it is less clear. And that's kind of my point: There is no clear and obvious answer, and saying that it is irrational to pick Judge just muddies the waters.

But it really comes down to how one assigns value. You may assign value in a way differently than I do. And the dozens of voters for MVP assign it differently. I personally think value should be a combination of factors. You start with WAR, and look at a variety of systems, then adjust from there for other statistics and intangibles.

 

 

Edited October 6, 2022 by Angelsjunky

[Dtwncbad]

10 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

The needs of the team are among the intangibles. Among other factors. When you consider a variety of intangibles, there's no clear, formulaic approach that decides the MVP this year, or in many years. Some years it isn't so clear, like this one - and that is entirely due to the unique nature of Ohtani. If Ohtani was a hitter with 9.5 WAR (say, a peak Trout season), no one would think he should be MVP over Judge with his 11.4 WAR. But because that 9.5 WAR is a combination of pitching (5.6) and hitting (3.9), it is less clear. And that's kind of my point: There is no clear and obvious answer, and saying that it is irrational to pick Judge just muddies the waters.

But it really comes down to how one assigns value. You may assign value in a way differently than I do. And the dozens of voters for MVP assign it differently. I personally think value should be a combination of factors. You start with WAR, and look at a variety of systems, then adjust from there for other statistics and intangibles.

 

 

OK let’s talk about intangibles and other factors and team need.

Does Judges talent give the Yankees an extra roster spot that they can use five different ways throughout a season to best address the teams current need?

Does Judge’s talent offer the Yankees 8 innings of work some nights that gives the whole bullpen a rest to be sharp and fresh for the next series?

Judge wins the WAR comparison.  But WAR is entirely incapable of measuring how valuable a unique player like Ohtani is.

I already said there isn’t really an injustice in Judge winning it.  He had an incredible season.  But the way I view the MVP there is no way I could vote that Judge is a more valuable player than Ohtani.

Edited October 6, 2022 by Dtwncbad

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

OK let’s talk about intangibles and other factors and team need.

Does Judges talent give the Yankees an extra roster spot that they can use five different ways throughout a season to best address the teams current need?

Does Judge’s talent offer the Yankees 8 innings of work some nights that gives the whole bullpen a rest to be sharp and fresh for the next series?

Judge wins the WAR comparison.  But WAR is entirely incapable of measuring how valuable a unique player like Ohtani is.

I already said there isn’t really an injustice in Judge winning it.  He had an incredible season.  But the way I view the MVP there is no way I could vote that Judge is a more valuable player than Ohtani.

We're not disagreeing on whether Judge or Ohtani is more deserving. I think both have an argument (though I do tend to veer towards Judge). What we are disagreeing on is whether it is "rational" or not to prefer Judge. You say it is not, I say it is. Maybe that's all there is to say?

[AngelsLakersFan]

To me giving the award to Ohtani this year effectively means you are going to give it to him in any year going forward where he combines some level of great pitching and great hitting. Judge had about the best year any position player is going to have and by all metrics contributed the most total value to the win column of any single player since Bonds.

[Dtwncbad]

18 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

To me giving the award to Ohtani this year effectively means you are going to give it to him in any year going forward where he combines some level of great pitching and great hitting. Judge had about the best year any position player is going to have and by all metrics contributed the most total value to the win column of any single player since Bonds.

Maybe so.  But if it is the correct choice is to do so, then so be it.

I didn’t like (for as much as I didn’t like Bonds personally) that it seemed the writers sometimes tried to not give Bonds the MVP because he was just winning it every year.  Hey let’s give somebody else a chance!  That’s just silly to me.

I totally get what you are saying with “all metrics” saying Judge had the most value.  But all those metrics don’t account, at all, for how much “value” Ohtani brings to a team by basically giving the team an extra roster spot.  That’s a little hard to ignore for me when you really want to make a fair comparison.

[rottiesworld]

22 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Every team “needs” good pitching and good hitting.  No, I don’t think individual team need is very relevant at all.

The award is supposed to be the most valuable player in the league.

Let’s just talk about judge for a second.  If the Yankees would have led the AL in OPS without Judge, then you would view Judge less favorably in the MVP consideration??

Look I think the award is MOSTLY about who is the best player in the league.  But they include some language to allow for some consideration to intangibles.

Somehow, the consideration to intangibles takes over with people overthinking the whole thing, starving for some interesting context.

For me the bottom line is I don’t believe for a second that Judge’s 2022 helps any team win more than Ohtani’s 2022.

But everyone can have their own view.

 

 

 

Imagine if the Angels didn’t have Ohtani on the team they probably win like what maybe 40 games. I say you take Judge out of the Yankees they still win the division. I say Ohtani is MVP because without him they Angels would be in last place and most likely the 1st pick this off season.

 

[AngelsLakersFan]

56 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Maybe so.  But if it is the correct choice is to do so, then so be it.

I didn’t like (for as much as I didn’t like Bonds personally) that it seemed the writers sometimes tried to not give Bonds the MVP because he was just winning it every year.  Hey let’s give somebody else a chance!  That’s just silly to me.

I totally get what you are saying with “all metrics” saying Judge had the most value.  But all those metrics don’t account, at all, for how much “value” Ohtani brings to a team by basically giving the team an extra roster spot.  That’s a little hard to ignore for me when you really want to make a fair comparison.

My point with the metrics is that they aren't really close. Even if Ohtani played 1B or LF this year he'd still be well behind Judge in WAR. 

The extra roster spot is a place where war does undervalue him, but it's really only in effect in games where he pitches and hits at the same time. Additionally, if you look at the bottom of our roster, most of these guys have been negative value players so the actual value provided in this area is pretty negligible. 

Ultimately the argument for Ohtani comes down to him being the best overall player, or the incredible nature of what he is accomplishing or any other non-quantifiable factor. At that point, as long as he is doing both things at a high level, there is nothing another player can do on the field to have a stronger case.

[Dtwncbad]

3 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

My point with the metrics is that they aren't really close. Even if Ohtani played 1B or LF this year he'd still be well behind Judge in WAR. 

The extra roster spot is a place where war does undervalue him, but it's really only in effect in games where he pitches and hits at the same time. Additionally, if you look at the bottom of our roster, most of these guys have been negative value players so the actual value provided in this area is pretty negligible. 

Ultimately the argument for Ohtani comes down to him being the best overall player, or the incredible nature of what he is accomplishing or any other non-quantifiable factor. At that point, as long as he is doing both things at a high level, there is nothing another player can do on the field to have a stronger case.

Sorry to repeat, but. . .

Starting a team from scratch to win in 2022, with the benefit of knowing what production you were going to get out of each player in 2022, which player would you choose as your first pick?

I really cannot begin to imagine anyone would pick Judge over Ohtani.

[Inside Pitch]

22 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

I think Judge will win easily, but I want Ohtani to win just to witness the meltdown from Yankees fans. Heyman will probably call Ohtani a racial slur in a tweet. It would be such an incredible tantrum.

You are a visionary and a true man of the people.  I too just want to see Yankee fans lose their shit one way or another.  Watching how the Twins finessed them and got Correa last winter was excellent entertainment.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Just now, Dtwncbad said:

Sorry to repeat, but. . .

Starting a team from scratch to win in 2022, with the benefit of knowing what production you were going to get out of each player in 2022, which player would you choose as your first pick?

I really cannot begin to imagine anyone would pick Judge over Ohtani.

I think you can't go wrong with either one. And I think that you'd get a wide variety of responses from MLB managers and FO types. The stats say Judge is the right answer but I think it comes down to what type of production you value more. There are probably a couple of guys out there who would take Verlander with the top pick. Judge's offensive numbers are just staggering, and your ability to play him around the outfield is a significant advantage over locking up your DH spot with your first pick.

[Dtwncbad]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

You are a visionary and a true man of the people.  I too just want to see Yankee fans lose their shit one way or another.  Watching how the Twins finessed them and got Correa last winter was excellent entertainment.

Judge will win it.  And that’s fine.  I have my opinions about who should win it in any given year, but that’s not always who wins it.  So whatever.  I fully expect to sometimes disagree with who wins it.

[Inside Pitch]

Just now, Dtwncbad said:

Judge will win it.  And that’s fine.  I have my opinions about who should win it in any given year, but that’s not always who wins it.  So whatever.  I fully expect to sometimes disagree with who wins it.

I think he may also, but I'd still hold out hope that the Giants become players for Judge in FA and then we get the "Judge is a trader how could he leave us, he will never be a true yankee" BS they always spew.

[Dtwncbad]

1 minute ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I think you can't go wrong with either one. And I think that you'd get a wide variety of responses from MLB managers and FO types. The stats say Judge is the right answer but I think it comes down to what type of production you value more. There are probably a couple of guys out there who would take Verlander with the top pick. Judge's offensive numbers are just staggering, and your ability to play him around the outfield is a significant advantage over locking up your DH spot with your first pick.

Thanks for answering.  I tend to believe Ohtani would be the most often “first pick.”

But that’s why these conversations are interesting.

[beatlesrule]

Very difficult to pick against someone that had an 11.4 fWAR which was 2 fWAR above the next guy and that led his team to the division title.

[Blarg]

On 10/7/2022 at 11:03 AM, Dtwncbad said:

Sorry to repeat, but. . .

Starting a team from scratch to win in 2022, with the benefit of knowing what production you were going to get out of each player in 2022, which player would you choose as your first pick?

I really cannot begin to imagine anyone would pick Judge over Ohtani.

Nobody voting for MVP is using your argument. It's not part of the guidelines so you can drop your own made up bullshit or keep promoting it as if any sane person would follow along. 

[Taylor]

On 10/6/2022 at 3:15 PM, AngelsLakersFan said:

To me giving the award to Ohtani this year effectively means you are going to give it to him in any year going forward where he combines some level of great pitching and great hitting. 

Sounds good to me.

[Dtwncbad]

2 hours ago, Blarg said:

Nobody voting for MVP is using your argument. It's not part of the guidelines so you can drop your own made up bullshit or keep promoting it as if any sane person would follow along. 

Thank you angry old man yelling at your computer.

Bro, you are increasingly just weird.