What is the minimum trade package you'd accept for Ohtani right now (if you were Perry Minasian)?

[ukyah]

1 hour ago, Docwaukee said:

I agree with you and @Jeff Fletcher

There are plenty of opportunities to double, triple and quadruple down on so many poor decisions they've made over he past decade.  

I think Jeff is absolutely correct that they have every intention of winning in 2023.  

So for that to happen, you can't just win an Ohtani trade, but you'd have to completely lay waste to another franchise.  Which I don't think will happen.  

What I do think they'll settle on is keeping Ohtani for another year and deluding themselves and everyone else that they can fix all the problems by the time March rolls around.  Stassi and Marsh and Adell and Walsh and Fletcher will all come around.  Trout and Rendon will heal up.  Stefanic will make some progress.  Rengifo will improve.  Loup and Tepera and Iglesias are just suffering from typical reliever volatility and will turn things around next year.  Ohtani, Sandoval, Detmers and Silseth will anchor the rotation next year.  

Oh and Arte will open up the check book.  

And all of it will be mostly BS but here's the thing.  They could never get the full value that they need from trading Ohtani right now.  The full value they would want in order to remain competitive.  

Now if the team is predictably out of contention this time next year and they sit on their hands and Ohtani walks?  Then they will have fallen off the scale of mind numbing ineptitude with the lack of self awareness reaching something beyond just a pattern of poor decision making but to a level where the FBI would need to open a case file and use it as a teaching aid for new recruits.  

So here is the proper narrative as it stands.  No one could pay what the Angels need in return.  Could a team give appropriate value?  Yes.  But it wouldn't be enough to accomplish what they're going to try to accomplish by this time next year.  And even if it were close and better for the long term viability of the club, the franchise would still rather keep Ohtani for now.  If you ask why, then you haven't been paying attention for the last decade.  

Then it becomes one of two options.  

Keep him and hope for a magical off season and progression of young players and a rebound of others to where we're in a WC spot this time next year and it actually seems sustainable.  I'm not even gonna try to weigh the odd of this.  It's non zero.  

Or, they get to July of 2023 and they're 10 GB of the WC and finally realize they need to cut their losses and move him whereby I think they would still get a fairly impressive return because anyone who trades for Shohei at that point would only do so under the guise of signing him long term.  It would be a requirement as the return for the halos would be absolutely contingent up on it.  

The right decision is to keep him for the time being.  Because it kinda helps this franchise save themselves from making a really terrible short-sighted trade.  

 

why would ohtani and his agent sign a long term deal when he would be 2 months from FA, and have every opportunity to not only create the inevitable bidding war, but also choose freely where HE would like to spend the rest of his MLB career? i don't care if it was the yankees or dodgers that traded for him, they would still have every opportunity to retain him. i just don't see any motivation for him to do that, at that time.

[Angel Oracle]

Here’s the only question that needs to be asked, if they wait until July 2023 to trade Ohtani, and are then still not in the WC race.

Would the return likely be greater than just a sandwich round pick in the 2024 draft?

If it is, they seemingly have to pull the trigger on a trade because at that point (2 months from FA) pending big money FAs rarely re-sign with the same team.

Edited August 1, 2022 by Angel Oracle

[Angelsjunky]

@Docwaukee, that's a fun trade idea. Absurd, of course, but fun. I think something more conceivable would be Bichette, Rodriguez, Henderson, and Cowser for Shohei, Syndergaard and Fletcher.

@cals, I agree with you, and I'm not as emotionally attached to him as I am to Trout. There's just something about a homegrown player.

If they get the type of package I think some teams will offer, I think they should do it. But I don't think they will because, in the end, for Arte business comes first, and Shohei is a cash-cow. 

The good news is that because he probably wants to keep Shohei so much, he might be willing to open up the purse strings some more for next year.

Edited August 1, 2022 by Angelsjunky

[DCAngelsFan]

7 hours ago, ukyah said:

 

why would ohtani and his agent sign a long term deal when he would be 2 months from FA, and have every opportunity to not only create the inevitable bidding war, but also choose freely where HE would like to spend the rest of his MLB career? i don't care if it was the yankees or dodgers that traded for him, they would still have every opportunity to retain him. i just don't see any motivation for him to do that, at that time.

* Mark Teixeira has entered the chat *

We traded for him largely because we thought we could re-sign him - we were wrong, of course - but that's not Doc's point - point is, we thought we could.  Arguably, that same thought was behind the Greinke acquisition - that it would give us that leg up to sign him long-term.

[Stradling]

I am not nearly as attached to Ohtani as I am Trout. 

[Angels 1961]

I just ho.pe deal is done before deadline. This will linger into off season. Start new direction now.

[T.G.]

57 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I'm not as emotionally attached to him as I am to Trout. There's just something about a homegrown player.

 

22 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I am not nearly as attached to Ohtani as I am Trout. 

It's the Jered Weaver effect.  It's why Tim Salmon is so beloved.  Fans love their home grown players.  It's only natural.  They wanted to be here.  Weaver went to the Padres because he didn't have the option of staying.  Salmon has publicly stated that when it was time for him to become a FA, he told his agent "take the first offer" from the Angels. These guys will forever be Angels royalty.

[ten ocho recon scout]

9 hours ago, cals said:

It doesn’t have to be a trade with a single team.  If it happens I envision a multi-team trade.

Like one team gets ohtani the pitcher, one the hitter?

[Angelsjunky]

4 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Like one team gets ohtani the pitcher, one the hitter?

I think I saw that horror film.

[T.G.]

6 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Like one team gets ohtani the pitcher, one the hitter?

TORS knocks it out of the park again.

[Angelsjunky]

15 minutes ago, T.G. said:

 

It's the Jered Weaver effect.  It's why Tim Salmon is so beloved.  Fans love their home grown players.  It's only natural.  They wanted to be here.  Weaver went to the Padres because he didn't have the option of staying.  Salmon has publicly stated that when it was time for him to become a FA, he told his agent "take the first offer" from the Angels. These guys will forever be Angels royalty.

This is why I often say that baseball is more than just about winning and losing. Now I do think that building a good farm is the most important factor in success (and thus winning and losing), I also emphasize it so much because my love of the team is greater if they're "our guys." I like Rendon and his chill attitude (and would like him more if he was healthy and still in his prime), but he'll never feel like "our guy" in the same way Trout does, or even a lesser player like Garret Anderson did.

 

[T.G.]

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

This is why I often say that baseball is more than just about winning and losing. Now I do think that building a good farm is the most important factor in success (and thus winning and losing), I also emphasize it so much because my love of the team is greater if they're "our guys." I like Rendon and his chill attitude (and would like him more if he was healthy and still in his prime), but he'll never feel like "our guy" in the same way Trout does, or even a lesser player like Garret Anderson did.

 

Exactly.

When the Lakers signed Karl Malone and Gary Payton... I was like WTF?  Those guys were the "enemy" and now I'm expected to cheer for them?

That being said... the Angels are at that point in time - where they have to go out and get guys who aren't home grown to compete.   They F'd up the farm system and don't have much choice, unfortunately.

[T.G.]

My one exception is Torii Hunter.  He was my favorite player before he became an Angel and when he became an Angel, I was very, very happy.

Edited August 1, 2022 by T.G.

[totdprods]

Overall, I just don't see Ohtani getting moved this year, even if a team made a ridiculous offer. 

Shohei will still have considerable trade value next deadline given his two-way ability. More than a typical rental. Would we get more now? Of course, but they can still get a really strong return for him next year, while keeping him for a shot at 2023 competitiveness. 

And I doubt Shohei's camp has given any real indication to the FO yet about his willingness to re-sign here. The Angels are going to be a likely suitor with deep pockets, and arguably still have the best shot at signing him since there's familiarity, so why would his camp be offering signs presently that he wouldn't entertain staying? There's no good reason for them to have indicated that yet, which means there's no good reason to sell him off yet.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Just now, T.G. said:

My one exception is Torii Hunter.  He was my favorite player before he became an Angel and when he became an Angel, I was very, very happy.

Thats how I was with Vlad.. I don't normally fanboy for other teams players, but I loved him with Montreal.

[Lou]

4 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Thats how I was with Vlad.. I don't normally fanboy for other teams players, but I loved him with Montreal.

Completely agree.

[Angelsjunky]

4 minutes ago, T.G. said:

Exactly.

When the Lakers signed Karl Malone and Gary Payton... I was like WTF?  Those guys were the "enemy" and now I'm expected to cheer for them?

That being said... the Angels are at that point in time - where they have to go out and get guys who aren't home grown to compete.   They F'd up the farm system and don't have much choice, unfortunately.

It seems that way, at least if they want to win while within the near future. At the very least they need a few breaks with prospects (e.g. a nice number of those AA pitchers turning out to be pretty good, Neto and DiChiara rising quickly and being good, etc) and a few smart free agent signings or trades. 

But if they have a hope in competing next year, they need to upgrade catcher (at least a solid platoon partner for Stassi), acquire a good middle infielder, build depth for the lineup, and strengthen the rotation. That's a lot, and they don't have the pieces in-house to do it.

1 minute ago, T.G. said:

My one exception is Torii Hunter.  He was my favorite player before he became an Angel and when he became an Angel, I was very, very happy.

Yeah, I hear that. Hunter is one player I was wrong about. I didn't like his signing - he seemed overpaid and overrated. But he turned out well, and was very likable. 

 

[T.G.]

Today's conversation has me thinking....

The idea of the Angels buying a championship team doesn't resonate with me. I will probably never see a team like the 2002 team again.  Although that's kind of sad, I'm also thankful that I have that memory.

13 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

This is why I often say that baseball is more than just about winning and losing.

For some, it's all about winning and losing.  For some of us, it's about the memories baseball creates for us.

[Angelsjunky]

5 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Overall, I just don't see Ohtani getting moved this year, even if a team made a ridiculous offer. 

Shohei will still have considerable trade value next deadline given his two-way ability. More than a typical rental. Would we get more now? Of course, but they can still get a really strong return for him next year, while keeping him for a shot at 2023 competitiveness. 

And I doubt Shohei's camp has given any real indication to the FO yet about his willingness to re-sign here. The Angels are going to be a likely suitor with deep pockets, and arguably still have the best shot at signing him since there's familiarity, so why would his camp be offering signs presently that he wouldn't entertain staying? There's no good reason for them to have indicated that yet, which means there's no good reason to sell him off yet.

Yes, agreed on all accounts. The offer would have to be truly extraordinary to not only tempt Minasian, but get him to try to sell it to Arte. Meaning, he'd have to be pretty damn certain that it would benefit the team in the near future--really, next year--to risk his job and career on it.

But that's also why I've mentioned the Orioles. They might offer Grayson Rodriguez and Gunnar Henderson, but probably not. But if they did, and threw in Colton Cowser and another decent prospect, I certainly wouldn't say no and I think Perry would seriously consider it. If it was Bo Bichette and Rodriguez and Henderson, he might have to take it to Arte. But I don't think the Orioles would offer that.

[Angelsjunky]

5 minutes ago, T.G. said:

Today's conversation has me thinking....

The idea of the Angels buying a championship team doesn't resonate with me. I will probably never see a team like the 2002 team again.  Although that's kind of sad, I'm also thankful that I have that memory.

For some, it's all about winning and losing.  For some of us, it's about the memories baseball creates for us.

Well, I think it is a mix of things for all of us. We just all weigh the various factors in different ways. I can think of some posters here who seem all about the winning and losing, mo matter what it takes, yet even they probably still prefer a homegrown team - just not as much as you or I.

But I think as a general rule, everything is far more satisfying if you put in the hard work yourself, rather than are just gifted with it. A homegrown team is the equivalent of "putting in the hard work yourself."

I mean, it isn't that different than getting a kitten or puppy, vs adopting a fully grown animal. You might (hopefully will) love the adult animal, but you probably won't bond with it in the same say as a kitten or puppy.

Edited August 1, 2022 by Angelsjunky

[T.G.]

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

Well, I think it is a mix of things for all of us. We just all have different priorities. I can think of some posters here who seem all about the winning and losing, yet even they probably still prefer a homegrown team - just not as much as you or I.

But I think as a general rule, everything is far more satisfying if you put in the hard work yourself, rather than are just gifted with it. A homegrown team is the equivalent of "putting in the hard work yourself."

True all the way around.  Well stated.

 

[T.G.]

18 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Thats how I was with Vlad.. I don't normally fanboy for other teams players, but I loved him with Montreal.

I get that.  I like Vladdy a ton, but Hunter will always be my favorite.

I will say that when the Angels signed Vlad, he was THE reason we bought season tickets.  I kept saying... the Angels just signed the best player in baseball, tickets are going to be hard to come by.  Every time we went to a game, I kept thinking how lucky are we that we get to watch him play for the Angels. 

[floplag]

The Mariners set the bar, it has to be more than what they paid so the idea of someone's top 4 prospects that was scoffed at is now very much realistic.
Based on this is truly believe we would be fools not to take advantage.
The Padres are said to be making a run, that conversation has to start with Abrams, Campusano, Gore, and maybe one of their top OF like Hassel.
Solves a lot of problems...
It isnt what i want, but as ive said it comes down to what Arte intends in the future.
F hes willing to pay Ohtanio, and IF hes willing to go into luxury tax levels to build about him... then thats what we should do, but history suggests thats not going to happen so... this is the only other logical move. 

[totdprods]

44 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, agreed on all accounts. The offer would have to be truly extraordinary to not only tempt Minasian, but get him to try to sell it to Arte. Meaning, he'd have to be pretty damn certain that it would benefit the team in the near future--really, next year--to risk his job and career on it.

But that's also why I've mentioned the Orioles. They might offer Grayson Rodriguez and Gunnar Henderson, but probably not. But if they did, and threw in Colton Cowser and another decent prospect, I certainly wouldn't say no and I think Perry would seriously consider it. If it was Bo Bichette and Rodriguez and Henderson, he might have to take it to Arte. But I don't think the Orioles would offer that.

I could still see the Mets, Dodgers, or Padres doing something so crazy though that the Angels and Arte's hand is forced. 

The Dodgers? When they want someone, they tend to get it. They're in the peak of their window. It makes sense to go all-in on Ohtani. 
The Mets? Cohen goes above and beyond and will spend whatever. They have enough pieces to fit, and they have the money to spend and replace what they lose. The Eppler connection. 
The Padres? Preller has the farm and has shown to be very bold. 

Any of those orgs could really do something. I don't see the Orioles being that bold...

[Angel Oracle]

2 hours ago, DCAngelsFan said:

* Mark Teixeira has entered the chat *

We traded for him largely because we thought we could re-sign him - we were wrong, of course - but that's not Doc's point - point is, we thought we could.  Arguably, that same thought was behind the Greinke acquisition - that it would give us that leg up to sign him long-term.

Backing up my point that big money players rarely re-sign with the team they are with two months before becoming FAs

Edited August 1, 2022 by Angel Oracle