Fangraphs on Noah Syndergaard

[Angelsjunky]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/noah-syndergaards-comeback-season-is-complicated/

Nothing revelatory, but it mirrors my observations of Syndergaard. He really now is a solid mid-rotation starter.

I found the Frank Tanana comp interesting. While I don't think Syndergaard ends up with the borderline Hall of Fame career of Tanana (240 wins, 3.66 ERA, 58.5 fWAR), he seems to have undergone a similar transformation from flame-throwing--but oft-injured--ace to solid workhorse mid-rotation guy.

I mean, nearly all pitchers--no matter how good--make that transition at some point in their careers. For Tanana it happened very young: he was ace-like through is first few seasons, and non-ace like from age 24 on. For Syndergaard it happened more in his mid-to-late 20s. For someone like Greg Maddux--one of the top 5 or 10 pitchers in major league history, and with unusually perfect health--it happened in his mid-30s, and he still pitched another half a dozen years as "only" a solid #2-3.

We can also see the same transition having occurred with Clayton Kershaw over the last half decade. 

With better medical technology, Sandy Koufax's arthritis likely would have been treatable, and he could have continued on, if only as a lesser version of himself.

[cals]

35 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/noah-syndergaards-comeback-season-is-complicated/

Nothing revelatory, but it mirrors my observations of Syndergaard. He really now is a solid mid-rotation starter.

I found the Frank Tanana comp interesting. While I don't think Syndergaard ends up with the borderline Hall of Fame career of Tanana (240 wins, 3.66 ERA, 58.5 fWAR), he seems to have undergone a similar transformation from flame-throwing--but oft-injured--ace to solid workhorse mid-rotation guy.

I mean, nearly all pitchers--no matter how good--make that transition at some point in their careers. For Tanana it happened very young: he was ace-like through is first few seasons, and non-ace like from age 24 on. For Syndergaard it happened more in his mid-to-late 20s. For someone like Greg Maddux--one of the top 5 or 10 pitchers in major league history, and with unusually perfect health--it happened in his mid-30s, and he still pitched another half a dozen years as "only" a solid #2-3.

We can also see the same transition having occurred with Clayton Kershaw over the last half decade. 

With better medical technology, Sandy Koufax's arthritis likely would have been treatable, and he could have continued on, if only as a lesser version of himself.

So what is he worth if they decide to try to re-sign him?

[Angelsjunky]

31 minutes ago, cals said:

So what is he worth if they decide to try to re-sign him?

Well, I'd say he's a 3 WAR pitcher at this point. 0.8 WAR through 9 starts and 46.1 IP = about 3 WAR in 150+ IP (and he probably won't pitch that many). 

Part of the problem is the six-man rotation. Syndergaard is worth less to the Angels than he might be to another team. And both his name and the weakness of next year's free agent class increases his price tag somewhat.

But if we're talking a #3 starter entering his age 30 season, and if he stays healthy for all of 2022, then I'm guessing someone will offer him 4 years, maybe $20M per year (4/$80M). Plus or minus a year and a few million (maybe, someone could offer him 3/$65M or 5/$90M).

The point being, I don't think the Angels sign him - and I certainly hope they don't. In fact, I'd rather see them extend Lorenzen for probably less money. But both are obviously trade candidates if they're below .500 at the ASB.

Next year's rotation is a bit lean, of course: Ohtani, Sandoval, and Detmers are virtual locks. Then you have Canning and Suarez, and possible prospects like Silseth, Bachman, and Bush, and even Erla, Kerry, Olthoff, Crow, and Seminaris.

But after the three locks, I see them filling 1 or maybe 2 spots with younger pitchers, and thus the Angels will need to sign 1 or 2 starters, and the crop is a lot worse than last offseason (they should have listened to me and gone after Gausman and/or Rodon), with Joe Musgrove probably the top pitcher.

[Angelsjunky]

One more thing. There's also the off-chance that Syndergaard finds another 2-3 mph, which would change his stock tremendously. An off-chance, but it could happen. But the trajectory doesn't look promising.

 Bu

[UndertheHalo]

Good thing the angels need a solid mid rotation starter.  As long as he’s not getting like 25 million I think he’s worth re-signing.  The Angels currently are not able to replace him internally.  Next year they won’t be able to either.  Arte has to open the purse strings. 

[Taylor]

His recent start was decent, so they should re-sign him. But next time he craps the bed, they should trade him immediately for some rondons.

[Stradling]

21 minutes ago, Taylor said:

His recent start was decent, so they should re-sign him. But next time he craps the bed, they should trade him immediately for some rondons.

And this

[Taylor]

9 minutes ago, Stradling said:

And this

Haven't written the description yet but it's on my list.

[AngelStew43]

Frank Tanana pitched 1293 innings between the ages of 20-24.  I like Syndergaard, but he didn't even get close to that.  

[Taylor]

3 minutes ago, AngelStew43 said:

Frank Tanana pitched 1293 innings between the ages of 20-24. 

And he did it naked in the snow, uphill both ways while working a second job to support his family.

[Lou]

2 hours ago, Taylor said:

And he did it naked in the snow, uphill both ways while working a second job to support his family.

Meh, minor leaguers do that today. Plus, they have to pay for their own Playstations.

[Taylor]

2 minutes ago, Lou said:

Meh, minor leaguers do that today. Plus, they have to pay for there own Playstations.

Very sad. In the Netherlands minor leaguers get PlayStations and Taco Bell for free.

[Angels 1961]

1 hour ago, UndertheHalo said:

Good thing the angels need a solid mid rotation starter.  As long as he’s not getting like 25 million I think he’s worth re-signing.  The Angels currently are not able to replace him internally.  Next year they won’t be able to either.  Arte has to open the purse strings. 

Why is always throwing more money after players? Many top of rotation will not come here. Six man rotation and 7 losing seasons. How does Tampa do it on a low budget? Can anyone name starters on Tampa without looking it up. Artie needs to be smarter

[Angels 1961]

23 minutes ago, AngelStew43 said:

Frank Tanana pitched 1293 innings between the ages of 20-24.  I like Syndergaard, but he didn't even get close to that.  

Syndergaard was pushed back this week needing more rest. Maybe being careful with him as it could cost him millions if he is hurt or pitches poorly. 2 of his last 3 starts were bad.

[UndertheHalo]

11 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Why is always throwing more money after players? Many top of rotation will not come here. Six man rotation and 7 losing seasons. How does Tampa do it on a low budget? Can anyone name starters on Tampa without looking it up. Artie needs to be smarter

Tampa has other players.  The Angels don’t.  And yes I can name several of the Rays starters.  They just got Shane Baz back who is a very high profile young pitcher.  They have Tyler Glasnow, we saw Corey Kluber.  One of the relievers JP Feyerisian or whatever his name is hasn’t given up a run this year.  

Edited June 13, 2022 by UndertheHalo

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, AngelStew43 said:

Frank Tanana pitched 1293 innings between the ages of 20-24.  I like Syndergaard, but he didn't even get close to that.  

It’s almost like the game has changed.  Has anyone looked into this and verified whether or not that’s true?  Has the game actually changed or is this a sample size issue?

[m0nkey]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

Meh, minor leaguers do that today. Plus, they have to pay for there own Playstations.

@EnglishCop, we got him.

[Lou]

4 minutes ago, m0nkey said:

@EnglishCop, we got him.

[Angels 1961]

28 minutes ago, Stradling said:

It’s almost like the game has changed.  Has anyone looked into this and verified whether or not that’s true?  Has the game actually changed or is this a sample size issue?

Yes it has changed. Tanana pitched in a 4 man rotation. Very few were throwing 95 now everybody does except Herget, Loup and others in halo pen.

[Angels 1961]

1 hour ago, UndertheHalo said:

Tampa has other players.  The Angels don’t.  And yes I can name several of the Rays starters.  They just got Shane Baz back who is a very high profile young pitcher.  They have Tyler Glasnow, we saw Corey Kluber.  One of the relievers JP Feyerisian or whatever his name is hasn’t given up a run this year.  

Glasnow been out all year.

[UndertheHalo]

1 hour ago, Angels 1961 said:

Glasnow been out all year.

Ooops you’re right.  I’m mixing up Yankees and Rays.  I was thinking of Taillon but knew it was Glasnow on the Rays.  Dang former pirates. 

Edited June 13, 2022 by UndertheHalo

[AngelsFaninGA]

3 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

Ooops you’re right.  I’m mixing up Yankees and Rays.  I was thinking of Taillon but knew it was Glasnow on the Rays.  Dang former pirates. 

Shane McLanahan who's challenging for the Cy Young

[UndertheHalo]

2 minutes ago, AngelsFaninGA said:

Shane McLanahan who's challenging for the Cy Young

Yep him for sure