Jo Adell & Variations on Player Development

[Angelsjunky]

Part One: The Case of Jo Adell (and the Ghost of Brandon Wood)

Many Angels fans are understandably concerned by what they see of Jo Adell on the baseball field. He looks lost at the plate and clueless in the outfield - at least in the very early season so far. But there are a few reasons why such concerns are probably overblown:

1. He looked much better in 2021 than in 2020.
2. He looked very good in Spring Training, seemingly building on his positive trajectory of development.
3. It is quite early - and that is an understatement.
4. He's young - just 23 yesterday - which is younger than a lot of great players were when they got their first taste of the majors.

As Angels fans, we tend to have a skewed outlook on prospects because of recent history: We have, on one hand, Mike Trout, who is not only one of the greatest baseball players in history, but after a short period of adjustment in his first taste of the big leagues in 2011 in his age 19 season, was an insta-star in 2012, his 10.1 fWAR that season being the best ever by a rookie.

On the other hand, we have Brandon Wood, who after a breakout year in A+ ball in 2005 at age 20, in which he hit .321/.371/.667 with 43 HR and became one of the top prospects in baseball (#3 according to Baseball America), saw his performance decline year to year in the minors, and then totally crashed in his first real chance in the majors, when he hit .146/.174/.208 with a -1.7 WAR in 81 games for the Angels in 2010. He never adjusted, was let go by the Angels and was out of baseball a few years later.

Meaning, our tendency as Angels fans is to subconsciously think that if a prospect isn't Mike Trout, then he's Brandon Wood - when 99.9% of prospects of any team are somewhere in-between, no matter how talented. 

Thus, with regards to Jo Adell, two extreme views emerge:

1. He's a bust or
2. Everything's fine and he'll become a star

I would suggest that both are wrong, and that a more reasonable view is something like this:

• There are legitimate concerns and his development will likely be slower than hoped for, but he should turn into at least a good major league regular, possibly a star.

It is clear that he isn't Mike Trout, although no reasonable person every thought he would be. And it is possible that he's Brandon Wood, although that is very unlikely. He's almost certainly going to be somewhere in-between, and also somewhere within the range of "solid player to "star." None of us know where that will be.

Part Two: A Variety of Developmental Patterns

Let's take a detour into the topic of player development, as a way to contextualize what we've seen from Joe Adell so far.

How do baseball players develop? In particular, talented ones with star potential? It is tempting to think that it is generally step by step, getting better year to year, and then reaching a peak level, plateauing there for awhile, and then re-tracing steps downward into gradual decline.

But it isn't so linear, nor is there any single path or pattern that applies to all, or even most players, beyond: "Players get better, peak, then decline." How, and in what pattern, varies greatly. 

Some players start out fully formed, like Aphrodite emerging from the ocean; Mike Trout is an example we all know and love. He's changed as a player, but his peak started immediately, with his rookie season. In fact, according to fWAR, his two first seasons were also his best (10.1, 10.2 WAR), although it is worth noting that Baseball Reference has 2012 and '16 as his two best years (10.5 WAR each). Furthermore, given the imperfect nature of WAR, as well as natural fluctuation, it is reasonable to think that his peak never ended, or at least didn't through his last full season (2019).

Trout did change as a player, generally swapping out stolen bases and defense for better overall hitting, with 2017 seeing a step up offensively (again, it is hard to assess where Trout is at now, due to the nature of the last two seasons). But he's been remarkably consistent in terms of overall value, from 2012 on.

But let's take a look at a few other players, to provide examples of different patterns of development.

Jose Ramirez

When you think of the best players of the recent era, in particular from 2017 on, probably the first players that come to mind are Mike Trout and then, after a pause to revel in the glory of the Greatest Angel Ever, Mookie Betts. You might also think of players with superstar seasons but with less consistency, like Bryce Harper or Christian Yelich, or recent young superstars like Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna, Fernando Tatis, and Vlad Guerrero Jr. But from 2017 on, the third highest WAR total belongs to--you guessed it--Jose Ramirez.

Ramirez's first 180 games in the majors were rather un-noteworthy. He broke-out in 2016 at age 23 with a 4.7 WAR season, then again the following year with a 6.5 season and, since then, has been one of the best players in baseball. Or to put that in terms of sections:

2013-15 (age 20-22): 180 games, 635 PA, .239/.298/.346, 78 wRC+, 1.7 WAR

2016 (age 23): 152 games, 612 PA, .312/.363/.462, 119 wRC+, 4.7 WAR

2017 (age 24-29: 649 games, 2779 PA, .280/.365/.547, 139 wRC+, 28.1 WAR (average of 6.5 per 150 games played)

The relevant point being, Ramirez played his first full season's worth of time at a mediocre (if passable) level, then became a star, then a superstar.

Michael Brantley

As I mentioned in another thread, Brantley had a -1.1 WAR through his first 100 games (age 22-23), then was mediocre to average for his next 414 games (averaging 1.9 WAR for his age 24-26 seasons), then had his breakout and best season at age 27 (6.5 WAR) and has been a consistently good player since (averaging 3.4 WAR per 150 games played). Meaning, Brantley didn't become a good player until he was 27, and has maintained a nice plateau level into his mid-30s.

Aaron Judge

Judge didn't even reach the majors until he was 24, struggled in 27 games, and then had one of the best rookie seasons of all time in 2017 at age 25, hitting .284/.422/.627 with 52 HR and 8.3 WAR. He hasn't repeated that performance, perhaps partially due to nagging injuries, but has stabilized as a 5ish WAR, 140+ wRC player, his 154 wRC+ since 2017 the third best in baseball - one of the best hitters in baseball.

Andrew McCutchen

Seemingly forgotten about these days due to decline, McCutchen was, for a few years, the Mookie Betts of the National League. He started his career with two good 3.4 WAR seasons at age 22-23, jumped to 5.4 and stardom at age 24 and was the best player in the NL from 2011-15 with 34.2 WAR (just edging out Buster Posey at 33.3), averaging 6.6 WAR per 150 games.

McCutchen is also a cautionary tale in decline, because he precipitously fell from 6.0 WAR in 2015 to 1.0 WAR in 2016, still only 29 years old. He did jump back up to 3.7 WAR in 2017 at age 30, but that was his best year from 2016 on. From 2020-21 he had 1.0 WAR, averaging 0.7 per 150 games played.

Josh Donaldson

Another brief competitor for best player in the game during Trout's early years was Josh Donaldson, who got his first cup in 2010 at age 24, didn't play in 2011 and then played half a season 2012 at age 26, with 1.2 WAR in 75 games. Meaning, going into his age 27 season, Donaldson had all of 0.9 WAR to his name. Then he broke out in a big way in 2013 with 7.3 WAR and, from 2013-17, his 34.4 WAR was second only to Trout (although a distant second, with Trout at 44.2 WAR during that span).

Donaldson struggled with injuries in 2018, then bounced back to close-to-peak form in 2019 with a 4.9 WAR season, and has been solid since, but more of an average regular (3.1 WAR in 163 games played in 2020-21).

Jose Batista

Batista might get top honors for "Where the heck did that come from?" From 2004-09, his age 23-28 seasons, Batista hit .238/.329/.400 with a 91 wRC+ and 0.3 WAR in 575 major league games, playing for five different teams. Even more interesting is that there was no sign of improvement: After getting regular playing time in 2006, his SLG ranged from .405 to .420, his OBP from .313 to .349. He was essentially the same player: a replacement level player with a mediocre bat.

But then, in 2010 at age 29, he hit .260/.378/.617 with 54 HR, with a 165 wRC+ and 6.5 WAR. 2011 was even better: a few less HR (still 43) but a 180 wRC+ and 8.1 WAR due to a .447 OBP. He was never quite that good again, but remained a very good hitter for half a decade more, with a 140 wRC+ and 20.1 WAR from 2012-16, before falling off in his last two seasons. 

Now one could be suspicious of such a significant improvement, especially at age 28 to 29, but Batista still provides us with an example of a guy who when from being a replacement player through his age 28 season, then a star from age 29-34.

Conclusion (and Some Speculation)

I could go on - with any number of variations. The point being, again, that players develop differently, both in terms of when they peak, how long it takes them to get to their peak, and what sort of pattern they follow.

None of this means that Adell will be a star. But it does mean that, at just 23 years old yesterday and--more importantly--only 75 major league games to his name--he isn't done cooking. 

To wrap-up, allow me to speculate a bit - or at least offer a few different possible scenarios for Adell.

1. He's a Bust. It could happen. A combination of his struggles setting up permanent camp in his head and real deficiencies in his game could lead to a scenario where he's given plenty of chances over the next few years, but never earns a full-time job, and never becomes anything more than a talented guy who occasionally hits a bomb and is out of the majors well before his 30th birthday. A variation on this worst-case-scenario is that he is traded by the Angels, and struggles elsewhere. I'd say the chances of this scenario occurring are below 10% - still possible, but unlikely. At least at this point.

2. He's solid, but not a star. In this scenario, he does settle into being a useful player, even a solid regular, but with big deficiencies: maybe he never becomes more than a barely adequate defender and/or never quite holds his own against breaking pitches. In this scenario, he's good enough to hold a regular gig, but not good enough to block younger, better players, so spends the next half decade as an Angel, playing anywhere between 100-140 games a year, maybe hitting something like .240/.750 with 25 HR and sub-par defense, about 2 WAR per year, plus or minus. Chances: 20-40%.

3. Things come together and he's a good regular/borderline star. It takes another year or two, but Adell's talent translates to baseball skills. But he's not a perfect player. His defense is adequate, but not very good. He has holes in his plate approach, but still makes decent contact, draws a few walks, and hits a bunch of HR, perhaps feasting on mistakes and lesser pitchers. Maybe something like .250/.850 with 30+ HR and 3-5 WAR in a peak year. Chances 30-50%.

4. He's a star. The best-case-scenario is that he not only actualizes his talent, but addresses his deficiencies. He learns to better read the ball in the outfield, utilizing his speed and harnessing his arm strength. He learns better pitch recognition and becomes more disciplined at the plate. He isn't just a good player, but a great one - at least in his best seasons. Something like .280+/.900+ with 35+ HR and 5+ WAR in a peak year. Chances: about 10%.

All of the above is arbitrary, and covers a wide enough range that it isn't really a fearless prediction. But that's kind of the point: there are still a range of outcomes, and it is still very likely that he becomes, at least, a useful player, and probably more likely than not that he becomes a good player. And, at least in my opinion, it is most likely that he becomes something about a quality regular and a borderline star, but probably has a better chance of true stardom than being a bust.

But even in the best case scenario (4) or the more probably optimistic scenario (3), he's still going to take time to get there. Let's not hang on his every ugly at-bat or outfield blunder, but look at the larger trajectory. As the cliche goes, baseball is a marathon, not a sprint.

Edited April 9, 2022 by Angelsjunky

[tdawg87]

Joe Adell

[Angel Oracle]

Is it possible that first MLB opening day start got into his head?

What else could lead to two horrific defensive plays plus not catching the HR ball that landed in the first row, and K’ing all 3 times against a lefty?

Edited April 9, 2022 by Angel Oracle

[Jason]

I’m most concerned about what we see from him in the field. At 23 he should not look clueless with the glove. His offense may be fine with consistent ABs

[bloodbrother]

He's so bad in the field and tracking the ball in the air that I can't help but think he's got vision/depth perception issues going on.

[Lou]

4 minutes ago, bloodbrother said:

He's so bad in the field and tracking the ball in the air that I can't help but think he's got vision/depth perception issues going on.

That's why I asked if he struggled like this in AAA.  I was thinking the large stadiums might affect his perception.

[AngelsLakersFan]

20 minutes ago, Jason said:

I’m most concerned about what we see from him in the field. At 23 he should not look clueless with the glove. His offense may be fine with consistent ABs

The defense is what caused me to take a huge step back from what I envisioned him becoming. Given his tools I expected him to turn into an above average defensive outfielder, but with what we've seen it appears that he just doesn't have a natural feel for defense. I'm sure he'll improve but this places a cap on what we can expect from him in terms of total value. 

His bat though, I don't think there is any reason to be worried. His swing has made significant improvements over the past two seasons, and his exit velo is elite. He will figure that out. Now the overall level that bat reaches is still very much up in the air, but he will hit and hit for power in MLB.

[AngelsLakersFan]

3 minutes ago, Lou said:

That's why I asked if he struggled like this in AAA.  I was thinking the large stadiums might affect his perception.

The first thing I wondered after the Angels called him up was, how could they not know he was this bad? I feel like he must be getting stage fright or something must be affecting him that didn't happen in the minor leagues.

[Inside Pitch]

56 minutes ago, Lou said:

That's why I asked if he struggled like this in AAA.  I was thinking the large stadiums might affect his perception.

The sky in Anaheim early in the season has always been talked up as difficult.  I know you watch a lot of town game telecasts, you'll hear it often. To be honest it's the opposing teams broadcast crews quoting their own players that gives me reason to believe its more than an excuse.  That said, his first step tends to be wonky.  He doesn't read the ball off the bat particularly well, he's just been able to overcome it with his athleticism.  The biggest difference I see with him is that he tends to be more ramped up/over corrects at the MLB level.  He needs to slow things down IMO, but its very likely he is just bad at reading the ball off the bat.

[mmc]

Is benching Adell for Rojas for 2 consecutive games after the first of the season good or bad player development?

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, mmc said:

Is benching Adell for Rojas for 2 consecutive games after the first of the season good or bad player development?

He's playing the hot hand but sitting him is terrible for his development.  Not playing when you need reps is awful period.

[IheartLA]

0-5 5K's and looks hopelessly lost at the plate and in the field. He will be on a one way ticket to salt lake in about a week.

[Lou]

2 minutes ago, IheartLA said:

0-5 5K's and looks hopelessly lost at the plate and in the field. He will be on a one way ticket to salt lake in about a week.

Nope 

[stormngt]

8 minutes ago, mmc said:

Is benching Adell for Rojas for 2 consecutive games after the first of the season good or bad player development?

It's disastrous for player development.   

[stormngt]

If Adell probl is in "his head", sitting the next too games will aggravated the issue.

If Adell was ready for the majors, then they need to play him so he gets consistent at bats.   

If he is not ready he needs to be sent down.

 

I believe Maddon style will hurt him.  Moving him to LF and then into a platoon can't help his confidence.  

I am happy for Rojas.  However, what happens when Ward comes back?  Does Rojas sit?  Dies Adell get sent down?

Maybe they should have traded him.

[Jason]

5 minutes ago, stormngt said:

If Adell probl is in "his head", sitting the next too games will aggravated the issue.

If Adell was ready for the majors, then they need to play him so he gets consistent at bats.   

If he is not ready he needs to be sent down.

 

I believe Maddon style will hurt him.  Moving him to LF and then into a platoon can't help his confidence.  

I am happy for Rojas.  However, what happens when Ward comes back?  Does Rojas sit?  Dies Adell get sent down?

Maybe they should have traded him.

Is his bat in the line up every day enough to compensate for his defensive woes? As of April 9th 2022 it doesn’t seem like it to me. Then again we should not expect the team to contend so maybe this is a great opportunity to give him the entire season to play at this level 

[mmc]

2 minutes ago, Jason said:

Is his bat in the line up every day enough to compensate for his defensive woes? As of April 9th 2022 it doesn’t seem like it to me. Then again we should not expect the team to contend so maybe this is a great opportunity to give him the entire season to play at this level 

We are (in theory) trying to win, however when we constructed the team to do so, we decided that part of that would be giving Adell and Marsh an opportunity to breakout and cement themselves as regulars.  So they need to be given the opportunity to do so.

[tdawg87]

Maddon is ruining this franchise as much as Arte ever could.

[IheartLA]

there is no next year for Maddon if he doesn't make the playoffs, he's all in.  

[Inside Pitch]

9 hours ago, mmc said:

We are (in theory) trying to win, however when we constructed the team to do so, we decided that part of that would be giving Adell and Marsh an opportunity to breakout and cement themselves as regulars.  So they need to be given the opportunity to do so.

THIS is exactly the issue..   They made a 28 million dollar decision in large part to open up the OF for the two guys who represent the future.  To then turn around and punt one game in, or claim the plan was always to platoon one of them with Rojas is laughable at best and at worst calls into question their credibility/thought process.

Also, when the stated long term plan is to eventually move Marsh into CF meaning Trout goes to left -- what the  hell is the point of playing Adell in LF when it's entirely not neccessary? "Oh it's important to win games early and get off to a good start, but I'm going to play my little experiments with the defense and the lineup because reasons" -- Joe Maddon

It's the say one thing do the other stuff that loses me every time.

[Jason]

18 minutes ago, mmc said:

We are (in theory) trying to win, however when we constructed the team to do so, we decided that part of that would be giving Adell and Marsh an opportunity to breakout and cement themselves as regulars.  So they need to be given the opportunity to do so.

I think this may be what’s best for their future as ball players. If they don’t play well then this season is going to suck 

[Angelsjunky]

What Maddon says and does right now, isn't necessarily what is going to happen tomorrow or next week, let alone next month. 

I agree that Adell needs consistent playing time, and preferably at a single position (RF), but it also makes sense to sit him again to A) Optimize their chances of winning this ball game, and B) Remind Adell that he plays when he performs.

It makes sense to keep him on the team until Ward comes back, even if he only gets a handful of starts. At that point either he earns more playing time or he should go to Salt Lake to work on his defense and pitch recognition (or whatever is wrong with his hitting).

Edited April 9, 2022 by Angelsjunky

[Angelsjunky]

I think psychologically it makes sense to optimize their chances of beating the Astros at least once. If he sits Adell vs. the Marlins, that's pretty stupid.

[Angelsjunky]

I'm reposting this from the "My god people," just to temper expectations (mine included):

Quote

 

Let's look at 1995-2004, a ten-year period. Why those ranges? Near enough that it is relevant to today, but long ago enough that most of those players are either retired or near the end, so we can get a sense of their total careers.

I looked at only top 10 players - so 100 players in all (10 years x 10 players), and then broke them down into WAR ranges. Meaning, this is a sampling of relatively recent "top draft picks" - somewhat comparable to Adell (who was drafted 9th).

Great careers (60+ WAR): 3

Excellent careers (40-59 WAR): 5

Good careers (20-39 WAR): 17

Solid careers (10-19 WAR): 12

Mediocre careers (0.1 - 9 WAR): 22

Negative value/did not play (<0 WAR): 41

Meaning, 41% of top 10 picks either produce negative value (18%) or don't reach the majors at all (23%). Only about 3% become Hall of Famers (or equivalent), and only about 25% have what we could call "good careers" (20+ WAR).

In other words, about a quarter of top 10 picks have good careers, a quarter no careers whatsoever, and half somewhere between negative to solid.

 

A bit more. I imagine that these numbers would skew upward, among those draft picks that played well in AAA - but don't want to put in the time (yet) to find out.

Meaning, top 10 picks who play well in AAA--like Adell did last year--especially at a youngish age, probably have a greater chance of having a good career. But those give a baseline of what our expectations should be of top 10 players when they're drafted.

[Jason]

15 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think psychologically it makes sense to optimize their chances of beating the Astros at least once. If he sits Adell vs. the Marlins, that's pretty stupid.

Adell will likely sit as they’ve already mentioned a platoon between him and Rojas