My god people. Just enjoy baseball.

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, beatlesrule said:

Brantley wasn't drafted in the first round and wasn't considered a top 3 prospect though. Not a good comparison relative to what is expected of both players.

 

2 hours ago, Jason said:

This is somewhat true but it is reasonable to expect high draft picks to either develop quicker or perform at a high level 

Take a look at the 1st round of 2017.

Of HS draftees, the top 3 - Royce Lewis, Hunter Greene and MacKenzie Gore - have yet to see the majors. The next two guys haven't performed well, the next guy, Austin Beck, has stalled out in the low minors. Pavin Smith has been mediocre, Adam Haseley was OK at first but hasn't progressed. The guy taken right before Adell, Keston Hiura--who was also my preference--looked great at first and then sucked, and isn't even in the majors so far this year.

Of the 1st rounders, only Trevor Rogers, Tanner Houck, and Drew Rasmussen have been solid contributors so far - all pitchers. In the second round, Griffin Canning has been the best so far.

Others have pointed this out, but draft picks rarely work out to the presumed expectation of solid regulars, let alone become stars. Going back to the 1st round of 2016, Will Smith is the only one who seems a definite star, although there are several others who are good and could be better.

We think "1st round draft pick" and it is easy to assume "future star," but odds are stacked steeply against it. Here are the top 10 WAR leaders of 1st rounders, going back to 2010:

2010: Chris Sale 45.5, Manny Machado 45.2, Bryce Harper 40.0, Christian Yelich 33.4, Yasmani Grandal 21.7, Noah Syndergaard 14.9, Drew Pomeranz 12.4, Nick Castellanos 10.3, Jameson Taillon 10.3, Matt Harvey 9.4

As you can see, that's 5-6 stars, depending upon how you view Sundergaard. Two surefire Hall of Famers (Machado and Harper), two or three guys with a chance (Sale, Yelich, Grandal).

2011: Anthony Rendon 32.2, Gerrit Cole 31.3, Francisco Lindor 31.2, George Springer 30.1, Trevor Story 26.8, Javier Baez 23.4, Sonny Gray 22.5, Trevor Bauer 21.0, Kolten Wong 19.8, Jackie Bradley Jr 17.7.

Similar: 5 or 6 true stars, two or three with a chance at the Hall.

2012: Carlos Correa 34.1, Corey Seager 21.3, Matt Olson 18.3, Marcus Stroman 17.4, Kevin Gausman 16.5, Byron Buxton 16.2, Joey Gallo 14.4, Mitch Haniger 14.0, Max Fried 12.2, Jose Berrios 11.4.

Again, similar - a bunch of good to very good players, several stars, maybe one or two Hall of Famers.

Etc.

Here's another stat: About one-quarter to one-third of first rounders never even reach the majors. At all. Most of them are supplemental draftees, but quite a few in the top 30 picks.

Edited April 9, 2022 by Angelsjunky

[Lou]

2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

 

Take a look at the 1st round of 2017.

Of HS draftees, the top 3 - Royce Lewis, Hunter Greene and MacKenzie Gore - have yet to see the majors. The next two guys haven't performed well, the next guy, Austin Beck, has stalled out in the low minors. Pavin Smith has been mediocre, Adam Haseley was OK at first but hasn't progressed. The guy taken right before Adell, Keston Hiura--who was also my preference--looked great at first and then sucked, and isn't even in the majors so far this year.

Of the 1st rounders, only Trevor Rogers, Tanner Houck, and Drew Rasmussen have been solid contributors so far - all pitchers. In the second round, Griffin Canning has been the best so far.

Others have pointed this out, but draft picks rarely work out to the presumed expectation of solid regulars, let alone become stars. Going back to the 1st round of 2016, Will Smith is the only one who seems a definite star, although there are several others who are good and could be better.

We think "1st round draft pick" and it is easy to assume "future star," but odds are stacked steeply against it. Here are the top 10 WAR leaders of 1st rounders, going back to 2010:

2010: Chris Sale 45.5, Manny Machado 45.2, Bryce Harper 40.0, Christian Yelich 33.4, Yasmani Grandal 21.7, Noah Syndergaard 14.9, Drew Pomeranz 12.4, Nick Castellanos 10.3, Jameson Taillon 10.3, Matt Harvey 9.4

As you can see, that's 5-6 stars, depending upon how you view Sundergaard. Two surefire Hall of Famers (Machado and Harper), two or three guys with a chance (Sale, Yelich, Grandal).

2011: Anthony Rendon 32.2, Gerrit Cole 31.3, Francisco Lindor 31.2, George Springer 30.1, Trevor Story 26.8, Javier Baez 23.4, Sonny Gray 22.5, Trevor Bauer 21.0, Kolten Wong 19.8, Jackie Bradley Jr 17.7.

Similar: 5 or 6 true stars, two or three with a chance at the Hall.

2012: Carlos Correa 34.1, Corey Seager 21.3, Matt Olson 18.3, Marcus Stroman 17.4, Kevin Gausman 16.5, Byron Buxton 16.2, Joey Gallo 14.4, Mitch Haniger 14.0, Max Fried 12.2, Jose Berrios 11.4.

Again, similar - a bunch of good to very good players, several stars, maybe one or two Hall of Famers.

Etc.

Here's another stat: About one-quarter to one-third of first rounders never even reach the majors. At all. Most of them are supplemental draftees, but quite a few in the top 30 picks.

I really appreciate posts like this. 

[Angelsjunky]

Here's a bit more. Let's look at 1995-2004, a ten-year period. Why those ranges? Near enough that it is relevant to today, but long ago enough that most of those players are either retired or near the end, so we can get a sense of their total careers.

I looked at only top 10 players - so 100 players in all (10 years x 10 players), and then broke them down into WAR ranges. Meaning, this is a sampling of relatively recent "top draft picks" - somewhat comparable to Adell (who was drafted 9th).

Great careers (60+ WAR): 3

Excellent careers (40-59 WAR): 5

Good careers (20-39 WAR): 17

Solid careers (10-19 WAR): 12

Mediocre careers (0.1 - 9 WAR): 22

Negative value/did not play (<0 WAR): 41

Meaning, 41% of top 10 picks either produce negative value (18%) or don't reach the majors at all (23%). Only about 3% become Hall of Famers (or equivalent), and only about 25% have what we could call "good careers" (20+ WAR).

In other words, about a quarter of top 10 picks have good careers, a quarter no careers whatsoever, and half somewhere between negative to solid.

[halonatic13]

5 hours ago, Puget Sound Angel said:

I understand what you are saying.

But I waited six months for this?

It's 2 games!

[AngelsLakersFan]

20 minutes ago, halonatic13 said:

It's 2 games!

But he waited 6 months for those two games!

[drpiranha]

2 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

1 bad outing and you want to forget Herget?

I don't want to forget him. I just think that Wantz was better last year.