The Angels Next Moves (Post-Lockout)

[Dtwncbad]

30 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I think Adell still has more value than Marsh on the trade market. Like, quite a bit more. 

That’s obviously what I think but it just seems like there is a lovefest going on with Marsh that I can’t seem to join (again, compared to Adell).

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

The defense remains the biggest question mark and Marsh can only help on that front.  I do believe they benefit by adding someone to fill the role they were chasing last year with Quintana (and failed), a reliable innings guy.  They obviously chose Syndergaard to be their front of the rotation help and I really have no idea what the reasoning behind Lorenzen is but, unless they have bought into Barria and the other depth guys as good enough, they seem to be lacking.

As far as Gray goes -- Marsh would be an overpay, 

Yep. If the Angels are primarily concerned about performance, then they're really going to have to think long and hard about nudging Trout over to LF. On one hand, I don't want him to as his WAR will take a hit and I love me some Trout WAR boners, on the other hand he could probably be a better LF than CF, and the team would save lots of runs over the course of the year with Marsh patrolling center.

I don't get Lorenzen either, but my guess is that Perry's people did a deep dive and liked how how profiles as a starter. I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt on this one. Worst-case scenario and he becomes a very useful bullpen piece, if a bit overpaid. And with Canning, Detmers, Daniel and others waiting for a chance, they've got back-up options.

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

I just don’t get the analysis that Marsh is the better bet than Adell at this point.

Slashes:

Marsh .254/.317/.356

Adell .245/.295/.408

The big difference I see is in BABIP.

Marsh .403

Adell .298

Seems to me that Marsh probably had some help with that BABIP and you could reasonably expect Adell to get luckier than he was.

The biggest difference is power.  There is no question Adell has the more powerful bat.  Yes people can say that Marsh’s power can improve, but Adell is still younger and HIS power could also improve as he ages.

Adell is fast.  Marsh is more of a natural center fielder but somebody still has to play the corners.

Personally, I covet the more pure power bat going forward.  His strikeout rate went from 42% in 2020 to 23% in 2021.

This guy could be ripe to absolutely explode offensively.

I think people are way undervaluing Adell compared to Marsh.  He made big strides and that power is legit.

If there is more trade value in Marsh right now, he is the guy I would move in taking advantage of that inflated value (compared to Adell at this point being way undervalued).

 

 

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

I think Adell still has more value than Marsh on the trade market. Like, quite a bit more. 

 

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

More upside.  Sabermetric teams will view Marsh are the better value, but Adell's breakout potential is head and shoulders above that of Marsh's.

I'm going to mildly disagree with the three of you here. While Adell might have higher upside, it isn't by a huge amount and Marsh makes up for it with a much higher floor. At worst, I'd say they have roughly equal value, but I personally think Marsh has more value - and that this is the general perspective in baseball. Marsh is going to be one of those guys who is average or better at every facet of the game, which will make a very good player overall.

Or to put it another way, I think Marsh has a better chance of being a consistent 3+ WAR player, while Adell has a slightly higher chance of reaching 5+ WAR, but also a greater chance being a >3 WAR guy. Plus, don't forget the fact that Marsh is already a very good center fielder, while Adell is--at best--a below average RF. I think he's improving, but Marsh will always provide a lot more value defensively.

[Inside Pitch]

@Angelsjunky, not sure we are in disagreement. 

Marsh by virtue of where his glove already is can be argued is safely ahead of Adell.  Both are extremely athletic, Adell more freakishly so but Marsh has translated his tools better save for the power.  Its the power where Adell really separates himself -- that's where his upside could potentially explode. 

The simple reality is that Marsh put up the 5th best fWAR among Angels position players last season.  Had he reached the 665 at bats Fletcher managed, he was close to a 3 fWAR player last year.  Plus defense, plus baserunning, both will play even when the bat slumps.

Hopefully the Angels can fill their needs and keep them both.

[Dtwncbad]

9 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

@Angelsjunky, not sure we are in disagreement. 

Marsh by virtue of where his glove already is can be argued is safely ahead of Adell.  Both are extremely athletic, Adell more freakishly so but Marsh has translated his tools better save for the power.  Its the power where Adell really separates himself -- that's where his upside could potentially explode. 

The simple reality is that Marsh put up the 5th best fWAR among Angels position players last season.  Had he reached the 665 at bats Fletcher managed, he was close to a 3 fWAR player last year.  Plus defense, plus baserunning, both will play even when the bat slumps.

Hopefully the Angels can fill their needs and keep them both.

Ok but if you knew one was getting traded and one was staying, who would you choose to stay?

[Hubs]

I think they can go a number of different directions.

They can trade for a starter, which almost certainly would cost one of their two young outfielders, and an arm from their rotation options, plus a prospect or two.

Or they can gamble on Rodon. 

If they trade an OF, then I'd expect them to sign a guy like Suzuki or someone in the $3-$12 for outfield help.

They could also sign a shortstop. 

I doubt their gonna give up anything of note for a backup catcher.

 

[Inside Pitch]

39 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Ok but if you knew one was getting traded and one was staying, who would you choose to stay?

Guess it's dependent on who and how many years of control they'd be getting.  But first I'd have to be convinced that trading either would actually make the team better.

[Second Base]

4 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

The defense remains the biggest question mark and Marsh can only help on that front.  I do believe they benefit by adding someone to fill the role they were chasing last year with Quintana (and failed), a reliable innings guy.  They obviously chose Syndergaard to be their front of the rotation help and I really have no idea what the reasoning behind Lorenzen is but, unless they have bought into Barria and the other depth guys as good enough, they seem to be lacking.

As far as Gray goes -- Marsh would be an overpay, 

Agreed, which is what I think will happen. I think Perry recognizes the need for that steady arm in the middle of the rotation, and there aren't any available in FA that can fit comfortably into payroll, which means sacrificing other capital, prospects. 

I don't like the proposal that I predicted. I would have much rather they resigned Cobb or spent what was necessary to get Ray or Stroman. I think trading for Sonny Gray is basically like plan L. 

I don't foresee them having many options and they will have to force something. Like Reagins did with Vernon Wells. 

[Blarg]

45 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Guess it's dependent on who and how many years of control they'd be getting.  But first I'd have to be convinced that trading either would actually make the team better.

For the next 6 years. This is the key point, these two, with Trout, create a locked down outfield with no more wondering why we can't fill all three positions. 

Pitchers are volatile. Most have short careers with splashes but not consistently great seasons. They are more prone to fall off quickly and have to be replaced where as outfielders have more staying power.

So with Trout, Adell & Marsh you have three studs and two of them are virtually cost free for three seasons and easier to lock up long term throught their arbitration years and beyond. So why entertain fucking with that for a shortfall in pitching for a season? 

Buy pitching. Trade other assets but don't give up either of the two players other teams wouldn't consider giving up unless they had a replacement in the wings and needed only that one starter to complete a World Series built team. 

We don't have that team, presently. We have multiple holes that could use upgrades. So drilling holes on the high side of the ship to level out the leaks on the other just sends you to the bottom quicker. 

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

@Angelsjunky, not sure we are in disagreement. 

Marsh by virtue of where his glove already is can be argued is safely ahead of Adell.  Both are extremely athletic, Adell more freakishly so but Marsh has translated his tools better save for the power.  Its the power where Adell really separates himself -- that's where his upside could potentially explode. 

The simple reality is that Marsh put up the 5th best fWAR among Angels position players last season.  Had he reached the 665 at bats Fletcher managed, he was close to a 3 fWAR player last year.  Plus defense, plus baserunning, both will play even when the bat slumps.

Hopefully the Angels can fill their needs and keep them both.

 

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

For the next 6 years. This is the key point, these two, with Trout, create a locked down outfield with no more wondering why we can't fill all three positions. 

Pitchers are volatile. Most have short careers with splashes but not consistently great seasons. They are more prone to fall off quickly and have to be replaced where as outfielders have more staying power.

So with Trout, Adell & Marsh you have three studs and two of them are virtually cost free for three seasons and easier to lock up long term throught their arbitration years and beyond. So why entertain fucking with that for a shortfall in pitching for a season? 

Buy pitching. Trade other assets but don't give up either of the two players other teams wouldn't consider giving up unless they had a replacement in the wings and needed only that one starter to complete a World Series built team. 

We don't have that team, presently. We have multiple holes that could use upgrades. So drilling holes on the high side of the ship to level out the leaks on the other just sends you to the bottom quicker. 

Yes, this and this. It would be--and might still be--different if Jordyn Adams was studding it up in AA, but he's basically had two lost years and isn't at all where--after 2019--we'd hoped he be at this point: not far from major league readiness (after 2019, it was reasonable to expect that he'd spend 2020 in A+/AA, 2021 in AA/AAA, 2022 in AAA/MLB). Instead, Adams lost a year in 2020 and looked lost in A+ (again) in 2021. Right now the best-case scenario for him is that he starts strong in A+ and then spends the rest of the year in AA, with a major league ETA of late 2023 or 2024. So at the least, the Angels need Marsh and Adell for another two years, and then can re-consider if and when Adams looks ready for the bigs.

The next two guys in the Angels once-plentiful minor league outfield train--Knowles and Deveaux--have also stagnated, and then the guys after them--Ramirez, Calabrese, Santana, etc--are years away. And none of these guys look as good as Adell and Marsh, or the rosy-colored view of Adams' upside (with the possible exception of Ramirez, who a few years from now could be anything from a bonafide elite power hitter on the cusp of the majors to a minor league wash-up).

The point being, the Angels have two very valuable players in Marsh and Adell: cost-controlled talented position players, with a low likelihood of injury and a good chance of developing into at least above average regulars, and a not insignificant chance at stardom. You just don't trade away guys like that, unless you have more than you need, and until Adams takes a big step forward, they don't.

Plus, I've been wanting to see that Trout-Adell-Marsh outfield for years. And as Blarg implied, don't fill holes by making new ones (gross).

Honestly, the only way I'd consider trading one of Marsh or Adell is if the Orioles called, offering Adley Rutschman for Marsh or Adell and another lesser prospect or two. But that ain't happening. 

[rottiesworld]

20 hours ago, Second Base said:

Short hand prediction....I think they'll spend around 20 million more in payroll, and that's it. No breaking the bank, but a modest 10 million increase in payroll from one of the wealthiest owners in baseball.

1. They'll sign Ryan Tepera for 2 years, 12 million. He came up with the Blue Jays when Perry was there and he's fashioned himself into a pretty consistent, decent reliever. Solid 6th or 7th inning option. 

2. They'll trade Brandon Marsh, Jaime Barria and Jack Kochanowicz to Cincy for Sonny Gray + 5 million dollars. It says a lot that Minasian was dangling Marsh at the deadline for pitching, and with Barria out of options and able to step into the Reds rotation, and Kochanowicz's upside, it's a no brainer for the Reds. They'll kick in 5 million to basically make Gray's next two seasons 10 million even. 

Rotation lines up as Ohtani, Syndergaard, Gray, Lorenzen, Sandoval and Suarez. 

Detmers and Canning in AAA. 

3. They'll trade Orlando Martinez and Oliver Ortega to Toronto for Reese McGuire, who will backup Max Stassi behind the dish while Thaiss develops in AAA. 

4. They'll sign Tommy Pham for one year, 4 million. 

 

If the GM does that trade Brandon Marsh, Jaime Barria and Jack Kochanowicz to Cincy for Sonny Gray + 5 million he should be fired on the spot.

[HaloBronco]

37 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

 

Yes, this and this. It would be--and might still be--different if Jordyn Adams was studding it up in AA, but he's basically had two lost years and isn't at all where--after 2019--we'd hoped he be at this point: not far from major league readiness (after 2019, it was reasonable to expect that he'd spend 2020 in A+/AA, 2021 in AA/AAA, 2022 in AAA/MLB). Instead, Adams lost a year in 2020 and looked lost in A+ (again) in 2021. Right now the best-case scenario for him is that he starts strong in A+ and then spends the rest of the year in AA, with a major league ETA of late 2023 or 2024. So at the least, the Angels need Marsh and Adell for another two years, and then can re-consider if and when Adams looks ready for the bigs.

The next two guys in the Angels once-plentiful minor league outfield train--Knowles and Deveaux--have also stagnated, and then the guys after them--Ramirez, Calabrese, Santana, etc--are years away. And none of these guys look as good as Adell and Marsh, or the rosy-colored view of Adams' upside (with the possible exception of Ramirez, who a few years from now could be anything from a bonafide elite power hitter on the cusp of the majors to a minor league wash-up).

The point being, the Angels have two very valuable players in Marsh and Adell: cost-controlled talented position players, with a low likelihood of injury and a good chance of developing into at least above average regulars, and a not insignificant chance at stardom. You just don't trade away guys like that, unless you have more than you need, and until Adams takes a big step forward, they don't.

Plus, I've been wanting to see that Trout-Adell-Marsh outfield for years. And as Blarg implied, don't fill holes by making new ones (gross).

Honestly, the only way I'd consider trading one of Marsh or Adell is if the Orioles called, offering Adley Rutschman for Marsh or Adell and another lesser prospect or two. But that ain't happening. 

I completely agree you on this. At this point why trade them now. I bet the stock value of both players are going to increase over the next couple of seasons.  

It would be a shame to see either one of these guys having a productive MLB career in another uniform (like Carney Lansford or Jim Edmonds).   

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, Second Base said:

Agreed, which is what I think will happen. I think Perry recognizes the need for that steady arm in the middle of the rotation, and there aren't any available in FA that can fit comfortably into payroll, which means sacrificing other capital, prospects. 

I don't like the proposal that I predicted. I would have much rather they resigned Cobb or spent what was necessary to get Ray or Stroman. I think trading for Sonny Gray is basically like plan L. 

I don't foresee them having many options and they will have to force something. Like Reagins did with Vernon Wells. 

If the Angels make that desperate of a trade then they are so much more broken than I could have ever imagined.  

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

If the Angels make that desperate of a trade then they are so much more broken than I could have ever imagined.  

Imagine being the Cincinnati GM right now. You're one of two GM's in baseball (other being Billy Beane in Oakland) with the necessary circumstances to trade legitimately valuable starting pitching. And there are 20 teams in baseball that are either currently contenders that want what you have, or would be contenders with the acquisition of your pitching. 

Once the FA alternatives dry up, teams are going to be desperate. 

I'm guessing this lockout ends in early February and there's going to be an absolute frenzy of free agent signings. The report date for pitchers and catchers will be on them before they know it.

It's the last song of the night at a middle school or high school dance and everyone is rushing out to dance with one last partner. The worst position is being that poor kid standing in the middle of the floor looking around for someone, anyone. 

It's scenarios like that, which lead to Matt Harvey and Vernon Wells type of acquisitions. Like if you squint hard you can kind of see it working out. Desperation.

Now ask yourself, with the Angels being so close to contention, Shohei and Walsh, getting Trout and Rendon back, bringing in upside arms like Thor and Lorenzen.... What's preventing Perry from being that kid without a dance partner? 

At this point, I don't think that scenario is a possibility for the Angels. I think it's turning into a probability, and that's scary. 

Rodon isn't the guarantee they need, he's a gamble, and they already gambled twice on Thor and Lorenzen. And even though I think the breakout season is legit and repeatable, I doubt he fits in the salary frame Arte has in mind.

They lost out on Ray and Stroman. Kershaw isn't interested in playing for the Angels, from what I hear. Greinke probably doesn't fit in the budget either, and even if he did, his time as anything more than a fifth starter might be done. We've seen Kikuchi get shelled enough to know he isn't the answer either. And the A's aren't about to cut a fair deal with the Angels only to have to face Manaea or Bassitt six times a year. 

Cincy has to be licking their chops. 

Edited December 16, 2021 by Second Base

[Money ball required]

It would certainly be a solid move in acquiring Rodon, despite the injury concerns. That could be big money but it would be a big time statement from ownership and staff toward contending. Obviously, improving our farm system is a major key to contending in the future, by not breaking the bank on bad free agent moves that don't pan out ala Pujols, Hamilton, Vernon Wells, etc. It seems like all the trades we make backfire on us. Almost like the Angels are where old ball players come to die! Sad. The team needs a strong base to grow from, that's why the A's are usually in the hunt without spending like the majority of teams. Moneyball, man. Obviously it works.

[Dtwncbad]

6 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Guess it's dependent on who and how many years of control they'd be getting.  But first I'd have to be convinced that trading either would actually make the team better.

Weak, cheap non-answer.  You don’t know the return and you have no idea if the team will be better.  If one gets traded and one stays, which one do you want to be traded and which one do you want to stay?

Decide.

[Docwaukee]

oh boy.  

[Inside Pitch]

7 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Weak, cheap non-answer.  You don’t know the return and you have no idea if the team will be better.  If one gets traded and one stays, which one do you want to be traded and which one do you want to stay?

Decide.

Sorry I didn't answer your weak, no context, question how you wanted me to, but I gave you my answer based on the info given and my belief that creating a hole to fill a hole doesn't make the team better.  

Ask me who I think is the Angels biggest/best trade chip I'd say Adell.
Ask me who between Marsh and Adell has the better chance of being a superstar player I'd again say Adell -- the tools are just way way louder.
Ask me who I believe has the better chance of reaching their potential I'd say Marsh.
Ask me who I think is more likely to break out next year and I'd probably say Adell, but it's a toss up.

But if you ask me who I'd rather trade/keep, I'd again ask who are they getting and how long is he signed for...  No amount of foot stomping is really going to get me to answer without considering the bigger picture.  I'm not really interested in being "right" on who is going to be "better", I'm interested in what would improve the Angels most. 

I have zero interest in moving either guy given the current roster.  

[eligrba]

I'm guessing home grown talent provides beterer marketing opportunities than free agents.  Lesson learned thanks to the narcissist who helped in keeping Trout from playing in meaningful games late in the season for the last seven years.  I would be shocked if Adell or Marsh are traded since they have already been in the majors.  It is still a business regardless of what fans think should happen.

[tdawg87]

26 minutes ago, eligrba said:

beterer

[Dtwncbad]

5 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Sorry I didn't answer your weak, no context, question how you wanted me to, but I gave you my answer based on the info given and my belief that creating a hole to fill a hole doesn't make the team better.  

Ask me who I think is the Angels biggest/best trade chip I'd say Adell.
Ask me who between Marsh and Adell has the better chance of being a superstar player I'd again say Adell -- the tools are just way way louder.
Ask me who I believe has the better chance of reaching their potential I'd say Marsh.
Ask me who I think is more likely to break out next year and I'd probably say Adell, but it's a toss up.

But if you ask me who I'd rather trade/keep, I'd again ask who are they getting and how long is he signed for...  No amount of foot stomping is really going to get me to answer without considering the bigger picture.  I'm not really interested in being "right" on who is going to be "better", I'm interested in what would improve the Angels most. 

I have zero interest in moving either guy given the current roster.  

It’s not that hard of a question.  You are being weird.  If Jeff Passan reported that the Angels are about to make a trade and he has confirmed the cost is either Marsh or Adell. . . 
You have absolutely no personal preference which one is traded away and which one stays?

If the Angels keep one and trade one, you really can’t say which player you think you prefer to keep?

Why complicate such a simple question?

And by the way, my preference would have been to keep both and purchase the pitching they needed.

I am personally not satisfied with the rotation.

If the front office is also not satisfied, they may trade one of these guys, probably for pitching.

But assume they get a fair return for whomever they trade. Assume what they get back is what you think is the right trade for that player to improve the team.  So they make a trade that improves the team in your eyes.

It should not be hard at all to answer the question.

For me, I prefer to keep Adell over Marsh if I have to choose.  It’s the upside of the power potential.  I could end up being wrong about that.

And again it would be great if both ended up beasts here, and the pitching solution costs neither somehow.

Edited December 16, 2021 by Dtwncbad

[tdawg87]

[IheartLA]

Wish we traded Marsh for Meyer at the deadline. Thanks Arte/Perry!

Edited December 16, 2021 by IheartLA

[IheartLA]

A fletcher/wade/mayfield/rengifo/velazquez middle infield is the worst in the league right? Bottom 3 at best.

 

[Stradling]

9 minutes ago, IheartLA said:

Wish we traded Marsh for Meyer at the deadline. Thanks Arte/Perry!

Why?

[Stradling]

9 minutes ago, True Grich said:

I wish the Angels had traded Quintana for de Grom.  I mean, if we are going to "wish..."

You forgot “thanks Arte/Perry”