The Angels Next Moves (Post-Lockout)

[Hubs]

18 hours ago, Dochalo said:

you and I both do this every year.  At least for the last 10 years.  And while we might end up correct for a few guys, the conglomerate is always way more optimistic that what ends up happening.  So while what you've posted makes sense and I want to believe it, I can't help but have to discount it by about 30%.  

Starting at 1st:

Walsh I hope does better against lefties. It was his big flaw in 2021, and if he improves it, he could be a 3.5-4.5 WAR player at 1st. IF not, and they platoon, I think Ward can give you 0.5-0.7 WAR at first in limited action. I think he's a 1.5 WAR player between the OF and INF and a tiny bit behind the plate.

Rendon is the wildcard, because in 2019 with the Nationals he was a 7.0 WAR player in 146 games. The next year in the 60 game season, he was at 2.6 in 52 games, which would be the same 7.0 WAR season if prorated out. 60 Games was a 37% of 162, so 2.6/0.37= 7.0 and prorating his games would be 141, so...wow. If he returns to for the last four seasons, versus what he did in 2021, being injured, we can deal with subpar WAR from MINF.

The other infield options likely shake out as follows:

Ward I mentioned as 0.5-0.7 in probably 30 games in the infield, say, 10 at 3B, 20 at 1B. 

I hope Fletcher rebounds, and shifts to SS, playing 120 games there and 30 at 2nd. People forget that in 2019, his best year, he played primarily at 3rd (90 games, 665.1 IP, versus the 239.1 at 2B, 246.1 at SS, and 154.2 in the OF). His defense can hold up at the hot corner and I think he can hit to league average at the position.

His FanGraphs WAR was 3.2 in 2019, then 1.5 in just 49 games in 2020, so he is certainly capable, but he needs to rebound. It is definitely the regular with the most concerns other than health, heading into 2022.

As a 2nd baseman, he didn't do as well defensively (by the stats, despite Maddon's praise) or offensively. 

I hope he can give us 2 WAR primarily at 2b or SS or 1/2 at both. I don't expect him to play a lot of outfield or third.

Rengifo and Velazquez are terrible offensively, but capable defenders.

Wade I hope is the second coming of Tommy LaStella, but his offensive numbers are also not very good, but not terrible either. He like, Fletcher, had one insanely hot month with the bat (August).

 

 

 

 

[Docwaukee]

12 hours ago, Stradling said:

Your post was about middle infielders. The middle infield hasn’t been a constant moving of deck chairs. It had Simmons and Fletcher until last season. 

the MIF is this year's example.  And not the only one.  you also may have forgotten about Johnny Giavotella, Danny Espinosa and Ian Kinsler.  And just the general approach of signing a big contract here and there and then trying to piecemeal the rest with smoke and mirrors.  And I want to be clear.  While our recent string of GM's have made some poor decisions on free agents and trades, the limitations on them with a directive to make the team competitive and the umpteen gaps to fill in order to do so has led to the Harvey's, Teheran's, Bour, the three guys I mentioned, Cahill, Lucroy and others.  

And the same thing will happen this year.  Already is happening this year.  And that's fine if that's the route they wanna go.  I can only pretend to know better.  I was a little more inclined to believe it was gonna work in the past.   So I'm gonna hope for the best but right now I see a guy coming off TJ surg who hasn't pitched in a couple years on a 1yr deal, another 1yr deal for a guy they're gonna convert to a starter, a guy at 2b coming off a 0.3 WAR season who looked like he got figured out, a collection of whatever at SS, a bunch of young guys who need to get to the next level for the team to do well (this is where most of my hope resides) and the assumption that two of our best players return strong from injury.  

And again, I see some missed opportunities so far.  

[Angelsjunky]

I forgot about Justin Bour. 

And in like three minutes, I'm going to forget about him again.

[tdawg87]

Justin Bore.

[Angelsjunky]

5 hours ago, Dochalo said:

the MIF is this year's example.  And not the only one.  you also may have forgotten about Johnny Giavotella, Danny Espinosa and Ian Kinsler.  And just the general approach of signing a big contract here and there and then trying to piecemeal the rest with smoke and mirrors.  And I want to be clear.  While our recent string of GM's have made some poor decisions on free agents and trades, the limitations on them with a directive to make the team competitive and the umpteen gaps to fill in order to do so has led to the Harvey's, Teheran's, Bour, the three guys I mentioned, Cahill, Lucroy and others.  

And the same thing will happen this year.  Already is happening this year.  And that's fine if that's the route they wanna go.  I can only pretend to know better.  I was a little more inclined to believe it was gonna work in the past.   So I'm gonna hope for the best but right now I see a guy coming off TJ surg who hasn't pitched in a couple years on a 1yr deal, another 1yr deal for a guy they're gonna convert to a starter, a guy at 2b coming off a 0.3 WAR season who looked like he got figured out, a collection of whatever at SS, a bunch of young guys who need to get to the next level for the team to do well (this is where most of my hope resides) and the assumption that two of our best players return strong from injury.  

And again, I see some missed opportunities so far.  

While I think Minasian deserves the benefit of the doubt--especially this early in his tenure--what strikes me is that he doesn't seem to be doing things all that different from Eppler. I mean, if you didn't know the Angels had swapped GMs a year ago, would anything stand out as "non-Epplerian?"

But here's a point of optimism, Doc. I used to smoke cigarettes and, like many smokers, tried quitting many times. I don't know how many times it took, but eventually it stuck. I like to call it the "27th try principle" - or something like that. Meaning, after trying 26 times (or even just five or six) it is tempting to give up. But you never know if the next time is going to be the time.

I think we're in a similar situation with the Angels. I mean, they've gone into almost every offseason with the feeling that, with the right moves, they can compete the following year. 

What I don't see is a team that is on the verge of becoming a perennial contender (at least in the fashion of the Dodgers or Astros over the last 5+ years).  But what I do see is a team that, once again, could be better than one might think and, if more things go right than wrong, could find themselves in the postseason.

Did anyone think the Braves would win the WS this year? And don't forget, the Braves had the worst record of all 10 playoff teams. What is the difference between the Braves and the Angels? On paper, it isn't as vast as you might think. In fact, I think you could argue that the 2022 Angels are similarly talented to the 2021 Braves. It is just a matter of how it all comes together: whether guys are healthy, mostly.

 

Edited December 18, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[Inside Pitch]

35 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

While I think Minasian deserves the benefit of the doubt--especially this early in his tenure--what strikes me is that he doesn't seem to be doing things all that different from Eppler. I mean, if you didn't know the Angels had swapped GMs a year ago, would anything stand out as "non-Epplerian?"

It really has been Eppler redux, same methodology only the big target is probably the highest profile reclamation job.  As Ive said before, I don't really have an issue with the methodology, it just hasn't worked.  

35 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

What I don't see is a team that is on the verge of becoming a perennial contender (at least in the fashion of the Dodgers or Astros over the last 5+ years).  But what I do see is a team that, once again, could be better than one might think and, if more things go right than wrong, could find themselves in the postseason.

And we won't see that until they commit dollars to create stability on the mound or until the kiddie corps of pitchers comes through.  This is also why robbing Peter to pay Paul via trades would be perpetuating the cycle.   The two SPs they added thus far will be FAs again next winter.  If they trade for Castillo, Gray, or anyone with less than three years of control they are staring down the possibility of having to replace whoever they traded for AND Ohtani in 2023.

The Angels don't lack for talent or potential, but there isn't any long term stability really and as they currently stand they project to have the 7th best winning% in the AL -- four games worse than they were projected for last season.

The only way to improve this team is to ADD without taking away from what it already has.  So, to quote the Talking Heads..  Same as it ever was....

[Stradling]

I would say the methodology for the pen is night and day different or at least the execution is. 

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

It really has been Eppler redux, same methodology only the big target is probably the highest profile reclamation job.  As Ive said before, I don't really have an issue with the methodology, it just hasn't worked.  

Yes, exactly. That's what is so frustrating: I kind of liked Eppler's approach, it just didn't bear any results, or at least hasn't in a noticeable way (that is, in the win-loss columns). It might simply be that the problems were so deep--especially in terms of the farm system--that it just takes time. But even with the farm, we've been saying for a few years that "we'll start seeing the fruits soon." I suppose we are with Adell/Marsh, but the fact that it still feels paper-thin, even six years post-Dipoto, is worrying.

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

And we won't see that until they commit dollars to create stability on the mound or until the kiddie corps of pitchers comes through.  This is also why robbing Peter to pay Paul via trades would be perpetuating the cycle.   The two SPs they added thus far will be FAs again next winter.  If they trade for Castillo, Gray, or anyone with less than three years of control they are staring down the possibility of having to replace whoever they traded for AND Ohtani in 2023.

Yeah, this is my biggest worry. I think this is where patience is key: 

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

The Angels don't lack for talent or potential, but there isn't any long term stability really and as they currently stand they project to have the 7th best winning% in the AL -- four games worse than they were projected for last season.

The only way to improve this team is to ADD without taking away from what it already has.  So, to quote the Talking Heads..  Same as it ever was....

Yes, which is why I think Doc is frustrated: if there ever was a time to go over on payroll, it was this year. 

But who knows, maybe Arte will surprise us all and open up the purse strings for Correa and Rodon. I don't think he will, but he does seem to have a bit of the "Late night drunken online shopping" vibe.

And while I think a long-term contract for Correa is probably ill-advises, especially if it prohibits them from extending Ohtani, it sure would be fun to go into 2022 with him on the field, and Rodon in the rotation.

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

I would say the methodology for the pen is night and day different or at least the execution is. 

They have spent money, that's for certain. 

Iglesias was a great trade and something we had not seen under Eppler but Loup is pretty much the prototype for a Eppler bullpen target, the difference is they got him AFTER he broke out and got expensive and don't look now but pretty much all of the BP targets last year not named Iglesias were epic failures save for the two dudes that fell into their lap on the day before the season opened.  Had other teams not cut Watson and Cishek loose... ooooh boy...

Claudio, Slegers, Guerra, Rowen, (Selman, Strickland midyear)...   "look at the arm angles!!!"

[Docwaukee]

34 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, exactly. That's what is so frustrating: I kind of liked Eppler's approach, it just didn't bear any results, or at least hasn't in a noticeable way (that is, in the win-loss columns). It might simply be that the problems were so deep--especially in terms of the farm system--that it just takes time. But even with the farm, we've been saying for a few years that "we'll start seeing the fruits soon." I suppose we are with Adell/Marsh, but the fact that it still feels paper-thin, even six years post-Dipoto, is worrying.

Yeah, this is my biggest worry. I think this is where patience is key: 

Yes, which is why I think Doc is frustrated: if there ever was a time to go over on payroll, it was this year. 

But who knows, maybe Arte will surprise us all and open up the purse strings for Correa and Rodon. I don't think he will, but he does seem to have a bit of the "Late night drunken online shopping" vibe.

And while I think a long-term contract for Correa is probably ill-advises, especially if it prohibits them from extending Ohtani, it sure would be fun to go into 2022 with him on the field, and Rodon in the rotation.

Signing Correa would be another example of why I think their approach is broken.  Fortunately, I think there's almost no chance of that one.  Ohtani is the golden goose right now so getting him to stay will be the next big ticket item.  Which I don't have a problem with of course.  

Maybe the thing that sums up my frustration best is 'trying to be competitive' or whatever phraseology they've been using.  To me, that means making the team 'pretty good' on paper with the hope that several lesser moves go right.

Now the other side of it is this.  In the last several years, no single player would have really made that big of a difference.   So maybe Arte is sitting there thinking 'Why am I gonna piss away another 20m out of my own pocket when it's not really gonna make that big of a difference anyway'.  

[tdawg87]

Instead of signing a "big splash", he should use that money to improve the rotation, bullpen, SS and backup catcher.

30 million could get that done.

But he won't. Minasian has 10 million to get a backup catcher and maybe trade for Gray (please no). We'll roll with a platoon at short, which will be just fantastic.

[Stradling]

It’s a weird time where the cost for “not a big splash” is still $15 million a year. We tried to go glove first with bat upside if you squint at SS last year and he simply wasn’t any good. Marcus Semien just got $175 million.  It doesn’t feel like there is some sort of safe $5-8 million player. 

[Docwaukee]

3 hours ago, Stradling said:

It’s a weird time where the cost for “not a big splash” is still $15 million a year. We tried to go glove first with bat upside if you squint at SS last year and he simply wasn’t any good. Marcus Semien just got $175 million.  It doesn’t feel like there is some sort of safe $5-8 million player. 

5-8 mil is what you spend on a decent backup who hopefully doesn't play that much but is better than some guy you picked off waivers.  Or potentially a decent pen arm.  Maybe a 'rebound' SP or one that hasn't fulfilled their potential who you can 'fix'.  It's basically a project. 

The difference on those guys in the 7-15mil range at any position is that you can get them for fewer years.  The length of the contract is usually the problem.   

[Warfarin]

In terms of a SS, I think the best option would be to try to search for someone via trade at this point.  Obviously it won't be a star level player, but certainly we can try to find someone who will be at least a better bet than what we have and could perhaps be serviceable.

At this point, post-break, I'd prioritize finding a SS beyond another rotation arm.  The other spots (backup catcher, relievers) can probably be filled fairly easily, in that we don't really need any big name/contract relievers and can probably easily find another reliever or two (as needed) to fill out the middle part of the pen.

One option to perhaps consider via trade would be DeJong.  Not exciting, but he'd cost 6mil this year and his acquisition cost should be rather low given his recent poor offensive season, that the Cardinals have another option at SS now, and that all the big teams have otherwise spent their financial resources on the free agent SSs.  While he struggled offensively, he's still one of the best defenders at SS.  That'd still leave payroll to pursue pitching and would plug up SS for at least the next two years (and possibly four, since he has two option years), which should coincide with our prospect timeline as well.

For an offense that's fairly strong otherwise, I'd be okay with DeJong, as he'd significantly improve our infield defense.  Rendon, DeJong, Fletcher, and Walsh should be a top 5 infield defense, IMO.  Stassi is an overall strong defensive catcher, and having a Trout/Marsh/Adell OF should be rather good, given that I expect Trout would be a great defensive LF, Marsh a very good defense CF, and Adell should hopefully be passable in RF.

 

[IheartLA]

If the Angels don't make the playoffs in the next 3 years Minasian won't be around so he's gonna be more focused on winning now. Trading for a pitcher with 2 years of control and sacrificing potential down the line shouldn't be a problem. 2 years is a long time in sports, you aren't gonna be trading for top talent that has 6 years of control. Everyone that is available will be either short term, expensive, or risky otherwise why would the other team even be interested in trading said player. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

On 12/17/2021 at 3:49 PM, Angelsjunky said:

Well again, we're talking about 486 OF starts, with Trout starting 130-140 of them. That leaves 115-125 starts on average for the other three - plenty of playing time for Marsh. 

I do agree re: Ward, although I think he gets starts if one of the young guys or Upton struggles, more than penciled in as part of a platoon rotation. But I do think he's going to end up having a couple .270/.800, 3 WAR seasons. Probably not for the Angels, though. But next year, he's a useful player to have.

They will want Marsh playing everyday. If Upton is healthy and looking good in SP there is a decent chance they let Marsh start in AAA, and let Adell be the full time RF. Jo's bat is a little more ready for a corner right now, and I don't see them moving Trout off center, so they may as well start Marsh in AAA in this scenario.

[eligrba]

On 12/18/2021 at 6:34 AM, Angelsjunky said:

I used to smoke cigarettes and, like many smokers, tried quitting many times. I don't know how many times it took, but eventually it stuck. I like to call it the "27th try principle" - or something like that. Meaning, after trying 26 times (or even just five or six) it is tempting to give up. But you never know if the next time is going to be the time.

You should have used the Jerry Dipoto method for quitting.

[Blarg]

32 minutes ago, eligrba said:

You should have used the Jerry Dipoto method for quitting.

Moved to Seattle?

[Blarg]

56 minutes ago, IheartLA said:

If the Angels don't make the playoffs in the next 3 years Minasian won't be around so he's gonna be more focused on winning now. Trading for a pitcher with 2 years of control and sacrificing potential down the line shouldn't be a problem. 2 years is a long time in sports, you aren't gonna be trading for top talent that has 6 years of control. Everyone that is available will be either short term, expensive, or risky otherwise why would the other team even be interested in trading said player. 

That has been the Angels problem for a while, looking short term. I certainly hope Minasian is looking to be the GM for 10 years and not three by trying to win now and crash the franchise once again. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

13 minutes ago, Blarg said:

That has been the Angels problem for a while, looking short term. I certainly hope Minasian is looking to be the GM for 10 years and not three by trying to win now and crash the franchise once again. 

I wonder if he is more likely to secure a contract extension if he goes all in on the next two years and makes the playoffs, even if it's at the expense of years 4, 5 and 6...

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, IheartLA said:

If the Angels don't make the playoffs in the next 3 years Minasian won't be around so he's gonna be more focused on winning now. Trading for a pitcher with 2 years of control and sacrificing potential down the line shouldn't be a problem. 2 years is a long time in sports, you aren't gonna be trading for top talent that has 6 years of control. Everyone that is available will be either short term, expensive, or risky otherwise why would the other team even be interested in trading said player. 

That may all be true but Marsh is too valuable to give up for a guy with question marks and only two years of control.  

[Lou]

52 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I wonder if he is more likely to secure a contract extension if he goes all in on the next two years and makes the playoffs, even if it's at the expense of years 4, 5 and 6...

Yes.