Official 2021-22 Hot Stove League Thread.

[ten ocho recon scout]

5 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

All the talk of the west coast is interesting to me given that he lives in Florida.

Maybe the Rays sign him then. West coast of Florida. 

Bada bing, bada boom

[totdprods]

9 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Yeah, the Dodgers especially would seem like a no brainer. Unless there was something we dont know about, and he either didnt like it there, or theyre pissed he missed the series(?).

But the Mets offer seems to blow everything out of the water in terms of making sense. (Way too much for a guy his age, who had dead arm last month).

If he isnt jumping to take it...

You can almost picture him now.... contract in front of him.... getting ready to sign... but not yet.... going "cmon guys, I dont want to do this, man", hoping the dodgers or somebody else offers him 3/100

That's what I think is going on. 

I've already said this, but I think the Dodgers aren't quite as determined to retain him, especially if it's looking like 3 years or even 4 is required now. They'd love to have him and will make a competitive offer, but they have the resources and coaching and analytics to pivot to other options that might be much more favorable and flexible. That could be the divide. Maybe they're topping off at 2/$60m or 2/$80m. The Angels are firm around 3/$90m-$100m, and the Mets are going batshit with $42m AAV for 3-4 years. That's not really clear cut decision for Max. Take a lot less to stay with the Dodgers? Be all about the money and go somewhere he doesn't? Take an in-between with a team that has question marks still?

Edited November 29, 2021 by totdprods

[CanadianHalo]

“all the sense in the world” …

 

for Lorenzen 

[Warfarin]

13 minutes ago, totdprods said:

That's what I think is going on. 

I've already said this, but I think the Dodgers aren't quite as determined to retain him, especially if it's looking like 3 years or even 4 is required now. They'd love to have him and will make a competitive offer, but they have the resources and coaching and analytics to pivot to other options that might be much more favorable and flexible. That could be the divide. Maybe they're topping off at 2/$60m or 2/$80m. The Angels are firm around 3/$90m-$100m, and the Mets are going batshit with $42m AAV for 3-4 years. That's not really clear cut decision for Max. Take a lot less to stay with the Dodgers? Be all about the money and go somewhere he doesn't? Take an in-between with a team that has question marks still?

Given the way the Dodgers do business (very high AAV, short-term deals), it wouldn't surprise me if they have a 2/80 deal on the table for him, or something with an even higher AAV possibly.  Allegeldy, they offered Harper a 4/170 deal years ago when he was a free agent.

However, for Scherzer, if the Mets are truly offering a 4/160 type deal, I can't see how he'd turn that down.  Maybe the hang-up is the Mets have offered 3 years, and he's trying to make them guarantee the 4th year.

Basically - it seems like he doesn't really want to be a Met, but if they offer him an astronomical contract that far exceeds the competition, then he will accept.

[angelsnationtalk]

2 hours ago, CanadianHalo said:

 

So with Chuck saying Robbie Ray and hearing this news makes me think..... Do they want both? 

[Second Base]

5 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

“all the sense in the world” …

 

for Lorenzen 

It really does make sense for the Angels too. They're taking a chance on him as a starter and if it doesn't work out, they have the depth in Reid Detmers and Daniel Davis to compensate for that. And if it doesn't work out, Lorenzen had been a very good bullpen arm in the past, which the Angels need anyway. 

When you roll in the local factor and the two way thing, it really makes a lot of sense. 

[Stradling]

I think the hang up is him weighing where he wants to be and whether or not the money being offered from the Mets is worth not being where he wants to be.  I personally always figured he was getting a 3 year deal.  I figured it would be 3 years between $105-115 million.  

[Stradling]

One of my predictions on here about Scherzer’s contract was 3 years $115 million with a 4th year team option with a $10 million buy out.  So basically a 3 year $125 million deal, which is about the annual rate he is rumored to be offered in NY.  Now might be a good time for Arte to step up and defer some money.  I am pretty sure Scherzer has deferred money in his last big contract.  

[Warfarin]

3 minutes ago, Stradling said:

One of my predictions on here about Scherzer’s contract was 3 years $115 million with a 4th year team option with a $10 million buy out.  So basically a 3 year $125 million deal, which is about the annual rate he is rumored to be offered in NY.  Now might be a good time for Arte to step up and defer some money.  I am pretty sure Scherzer has deferred money in his last big contract.  

Unless Arte is about to go nuts and absolutely blow past any luxury tax level, I can't envision him spending roughly 40mil per year on Scherzer.  It'd be great to see, but given the other holes we have to fill, he'd probably have to spend another 15-20 mil to fill the rest of the gaps.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Warfarin said:

Unless Arte is about to go nuts and absolutely blow past any luxury tax level, I can't envision him spending roughly 40mil per year on Scherzer.  It'd be great to see, but given the other holes we have to fill, he'd probably have to spend another 15-20 mil to fill the rest of the gaps.

I totally agree, the only reason you sign Scherzer is if you are committed to going over budget for a year or two.  

[Stradling]

I wonder if this season is played without a luxury tax since they are in the off season without a CBA going into next season.  Maybe whatever agreement they have will go into place after the 2022 season.  

[angelsnationtalk]

Ray, Castillo, Iglesias pipe dream incoming! 

[Dtwncbad]

3 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Ray, Castillo, Iglesias pipe dream incoming! 

Gross 

[EdmontonAngelsFan]

 

[Dtwncbad]

5 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Ray, Castillo, Iglesias pipe dream incoming! 

[Revad]

6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I wonder if this season is played without a luxury tax since they are in the off season without a CBA going into next season.  Maybe whatever agreement they have will go into place after the 2022 season.  

That sounds right, and if Artie knows that could make a big difference…

[ten ocho recon scout]

29 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

“all the sense in the world” …

 

for Lorenzen 

He wears Vans? Oh shit, now I totally get it.

[totdprods]

23 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Given the way the Dodgers do business (very high AAV, short-term deals), it wouldn't surprise me if they have a 2/80 deal on the table for him, or something with an even higher AAV possibly.  Allegeldy, they offered Harper a 4/170 deal years ago when he was a free agent.

However, for Scherzer, if the Mets are truly offering a 4/160 type deal, I can't see how he'd turn that down.  Maybe the hang-up is the Mets have offered 3 years, and he's trying to make them guarantee the 4th year.

Basically - it seems like he doesn't really want to be a Met, but if they offer him an astronomical contract that far exceeds the competition, then he will accept.

I wonder if Scherzer has a deeper conflict going on, as I believe he's a pretty integral member of the MLBPA too. 

There's probably some internal pressure to take the most money to help keep raising the bar for other players, but also get the sense that he is not an "all about the money" guy, especially with what he's already made in his career, and especially if he doesn't want to play in NYC. He's incredibly intense and confident but take him off the mound and he seems to be a pretty humble, considerate dude. That might conflict with being a "take the most money and be a pure hired gun" offer that the Mets are presenting.

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I wonder if Scherzer has a deeper conflict going on, as I believe he's a pretty integral member of the MLBPA too. 

There's probably some internal pressure to take the most money to help keep raising the bar for other players, but also get the sense that he is not an "all about the money" guy, especially with what he's already made in his career, and especially if he doesn't want to play in NYC. He's incredibly intense and confident but take him off the mound and he seems to be a pretty humble, considerate dude. That might conflict with being a "take the most money and be a pure hired gun" offer that the Mets are presenting.

I have read that as well.  Feels an obligation to take the most dollars.  

[ten ocho recon scout]

I kind of picture scherzer signing with the mets, making the same "grosss!" face leo dicaprio made in basketball diaries when he was letting old men go down on him for heroin money.

[Inside Pitch]

13 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I wonder if this season is played without a luxury tax since they are in the off season without a CBA going into next season.  Maybe whatever agreement they have will go into place after the 2022 season.  

If it plays out like it has in the past then if they play without a CBA, the old rules would carry over.  

[totdprods]

Just now, Stradling said:

I have read that as well.  Feels an obligation to take the most dollars.  

He seems to be a really laid-back, convivial dude who actually would love to play without the media hovering over him and next to Ohtani and Trout. So I do think the Angels are very much in play.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Still surprised his market (at least whats being reported) isnt bigger.

The Yankees, to me, make a ton of sense. Not the lazy, generic "they sign everyone" take. But again, the short deal... you pair him w Cole, and try to win one before Judge potentially leaves. Or at least while you still have Cole, Judge, Chapman and Stanton together.

And what about the Padres? They were supposedly in on him, too at the deadline.

[angelsnationtalk]

Just now, totdprods said:

He seems to be a really laid-back, convivial dude who actually would love to play without the media hovering over him and next to Ohtani and Trout. So I do think the Angels are very much in play.

But we all know the saying "money talks, bullshit walks". Dude wants to stay on the west coast and play for a winning team. But at the end of the day, the Mets have to offer more money to woo him in. The Mets are an internal ticking time bomb and don't even have a coach. 

Dodgers/Angels should be an easy pick for him, but it all comes down to Boras getting him the most money. 

He's about to finalize the deal with the Mets unless I'm missing info on other teams still in play??

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Still surprised his market (at least whats being reported) isnt bigger.

The Yankees, to me, make a ton of sense. Not the lazy, generic "they sign everyone" take. But again, the short deal... you pair him w Cole, and try to win one before Judge potentially leaves. Or at least while you still have Cole, Judge, Chapman and Stanton together.

And what about the Padres? They were supposedly in on him, too at the deadline.

Paying $30, 35, 40m a season just isn't realistic for a lot of teams, especially if they have other needs.