Is trading Ohtani completely out of the question?

[Torridd]

Yes, we don't have to. We are a big market that can get the things we need through other means. I believe the Angels are on the verge of something big. Ohtani, Fletch, Trout, Rendon, Adell, Marsh, Walsh. Those are our starters TODAY. We just have to work around them.

[Torridd]

17 hours ago, Dochalo said:

It would be worth considering if Ohtani weren't one of the most marketable players in all of professional sports.  And it's not just an 'arte marketing' thing but I think any franchise with such a high profile player would have to get such a boat load of prospects that I'm not sure you could ever achieve proper value.  Maybe from a value to the 'team on the field' but perhaps not to the overall value to the franchise.  

Here's a funny statement (or at least I think it is).  The Angels have players that have either been too good or too bad to trade.  

I totally agree, Doc. It's not so much Ohtani's stats, but his marketability. At this point, he's more than his stats.

[Rollinghard]

It is precisely because of his marketability that trading him should be strongly considered.  IF done correctly, Angels could score big time. Where does keeping Ohtani get us? 

[ScottT]

17 hours ago, True Grich said:

Ohtani is a top if the rotation pitcher and an elite bat.

Duh...

And he makes far less than the two you'd get.

And he generates far more revenue than the two you'd get.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

21 hours ago, UtahHalo said:

I know it's likely heresy to even suggest such a thing. If the Halos hold on to Ohtani past the next couple of years, it's likely going to be the most absurdly large contract in baseball. Combine that with the Trout and Rendon contracts and the Angels are in the same position they've been in lately where the majority of your payroll goes to three guys and there's no cash left to build out the rest of the team. 

Pujols contract comes off the books and Upton's next year, so there's that money. Arte just needs to bite the bullet in the mean time and do whatever it takes. He has minimum or close to it for 1B, SS. LF, and RF once Upton is gone. Give Ohtani Pujols' money plus his $5.5M he is do this in an extension. You still have the money wasted on pitchers from last year plus it's finally time for Arte to at least reach the tax threshold on a top pitcher. Suarez, and Sandoval make peanuts. Fletcher makes ~$5.0M over the next few years.

After all all Arte can't complain about losing money, besides #,000,000 in attendance, concessions, merchandise, advertising, and parking he gets $150M every year from his TV deal.

Edited October 5, 2021 by Ace-Of-Diamonds

[Torridd]

3 hours ago, Rollinghard said:

It is precisely because of his marketability that trading him should be strongly considered.  IF done correctly, Angels could score big time. Where does keeping Ohtani get us? 

With him in the lineup, the Angels are even more of a powerhouse. Moreover, he's more valuable as a starter.

[namssa]

The Angles would be exactly like the Red Sox when they traded Babe Ruth to the Yankees and it would start the Curse of the Ohtani.  

[gotbeer]

If you can't extend him, you trade him.  Angels have 1 and a half seasons to figure it out.

[Slegnaac]

Unless the NL adopts the DH I think interest is limited to AL.  Which presents two problems,  less buyers to work with, and more importantly the Angels would likely be facing Ohtani multiple times each season.

I don't see it happening at this point.

[ettin]

I just hate these types of threads....

[jsnpritchett]

10 minutes ago, ettin said:

I just hate these types of threads....

Good thing you're not wasting your time by posting in any of them, then!

[UndertheHalo]

If they haven’t been able to make it work with Ohtani and previously Trout there’s no reason to have any faith that they’ll be able to make it work with whatever they get back for him.  What they’ll get back is several players who won’t be as good.  In general, when a super star is traded it’s bad for the team that traded the super star.  Especially if the player is still controlled as Ohtani is.  Sure there are handfuls or exceptions.  But again.  Can anyone here honestly say they trust the angels front office to not completely fuck up a trade like this ? 
 

Ohtani expressly said he’s open to staying.  The goal should be to make it work with him. 

Edited October 6, 2021 by UndertheHalo

[jsnpritchett]

10 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

If they haven’t been able to make it work with Ohtani and previously Trout there’s no reason to have any faith that they’ll be able to make it work with whatever they get back for him.  What they’ll get back is several players who won’t be as good.  In general, when a super star is traded it’s bad for the team that traded the super star.  Especially if the player is still controlled as Ohtani is.  Sure there are handfuls or exceptions.  But again.  Can anyone here honestly say they trust the angels front office to not completely fuck up a trade like this ? 
 

Ohtani expressly said he’s open to staying.  The goal should be to make it work with him. 

I generally agree with this. But again, I just don't know how the math can realistically work unless Arte ups the budget. You can't sign R. Iglesias (or someone similar), deepen the bullpen, dramatically improve the starting pitching (with proven veterans, which seems to be what Maddon wants), upgrade at SS, AND extend Ohtani within the budget parameters the Angels have been in in recent years. 

[UndertheHalo]

10 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

I generally agree with this. But again, I just don't know how the math can realistically work unless Arte ups the budget. You can't sign R. Iglesias (or someone similar), deepen the bullpen, dramatically improve the starting pitching (with proven veterans, which seems to be what Maddon wants), upgrade at SS, AND extend Ohtani within the budget parameters the Angels have been in in recent years. 

Ya I mean he has to do this or it won’t work <shrugs> balls in your court Arturo 

[HanfordGuy]

Start negotiating now. What price range is he looking at?  $324M??? Just get it done.

[arch stanton]

9 hours ago, Rollinghard said:

It is precisely because of his marketability that trading him should be strongly considered.  IF done correctly, Angels could score big time. Where does keeping Ohtani get us? 

The people on this board view success as winning games and playing in October. The people who could make this deal happen view success at the turnstiles. Do the the math

[fan_since79]

On 10/4/2021 at 7:09 PM, Dochalo said:

a lineup with a healthy Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, Walsh, Stassi, Marsh, and Adell would be really fun to watch.  

Betting on every one of those guys to play a full, healthy season is like drawing a straight flush in five-card draw.

[fan_since79]

8 hours ago, arch stanton said:

The people on this board view success as winning games and playing in October. The people who could make this deal happen view success at the turnstiles. Do the math

You just neatly summarized the main problem with this franchise.

[Hubs]

I doubt it. There's legitimately no way you do that with Trout on the roster, and get comparable value that fits the Trout window.

Ohtani's contract will be tricky, as he's among the best hitters and pitchers in baseball, but as he's unique he also is the only one that is both, so how do you value that?

As a hitter-only, and presumably one who plays in the OF, He'd start every day and presumably plays good if not Gold Glove Caliber Defense and hits 50+ HR a year, with a .275-285 Average, and 30+ SB. .370-.380 OBP and a .570ish SLG. So, not quite Troutian, but certainly Stanton or Harper or somewhere in that range.

As a pitcher-only, he's basically somewhere between Wheeler and Strasburg.

But you can't just combine the two and say he's worth both salaries. As a DH, his value does decline a bit as compared to an OF, maybe 10-15%. JD Martinez makes less than a comparable OF.

And then he started 146 games this year and of those 146, 23 were as a pitcher. Now he hits when he pitches, sometimes, but not always (20 of 23). So he's not quite as valuable as a guy who hits in 160-162 games. He's about 10%-15% less than a guy like that. I'm gonna give him credit for being his own DH as a hitter when he pitches, so there were only 133 possible DH starts for the team, and he did start 124 of the 133 as a DH. They gave up the DH in 19 of Ohtani's starts, only one took place in an NL park, and that was @ Arizona on June 11. They need to do a better job of lining him up to start in NL Parks. Anyway, so he's basically starting 142 games as a hitter, which is 12.5% less than a full time guy.

As a starting pitcher he pitched roughly 65-70% of the innings that you'd hope for from a front-line starter and roughly 2/3 of the starts. That's fine by me, it's not a negative, because I like his value so much.

So as a combo pitcher / DH he gives you 65-70% of Strasburg/Wheeler as a pitcher and say 80% of a full-time MVP hitter. But then you have double the injury risk.

As a hitter, you're looking at 25-35M for the class of guys he's in, Stanton makes 29. Harper is around that number too.

Strasburg makes 35M a season as a pitcher, Wheeler around 26-27. So lets split it and say 30M.

80% of 30 is 24. 67% of 30 is 20. 20+24 is $44.

Is he worth $44 AAV? I'd say no. The Injury Risk doubles so maybe that drops it to 40-42.  But I could see him make close to that figure. I don't think he'd get that in an extension, they won't have to pay him that in his final year of arbitration, but I would see him get what Trout's getting and be worth it.

2022 he's under contract for $5.5 and so you increase that number to say $15, 2023 to $20. Then give him a 42M average and he's making close to what Trout makes.

 

 

 

 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

Trade Ohtani and you lose an Ace, and a offensive powerhouse. Both would need to be replaced and we would still need 2 more top tier SP. Arte would be known  in the same way as Boston letting Babe Ruth become a Yankee. You could never be fully compensated for him with prospects.

[Angel Oracle]

On 10/4/2021 at 6:52 PM, Justin said:

I do not trust the organization to evaluate the prospects - or even the "front-line starter" - that it would get in return. 

I can see the Angels ending up with a few crappy prospects and a front line starter who isn't as good as Ohtani.

As I’ve said before, ask the Marlins how trading Cabrera worked out for them.

[Angel Oracle]

13 hours ago, HanfordGuy said:

Start negotiating now. What price range is he looking at?  $324M??? Just get it done.

Wait until a year from now.

If he’s still doing both well, then draw up a new contract.

[Angel Oracle]

13 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

I generally agree with this. But again, I just don't know how the math can realistically work unless Arte ups the budget. You can't sign R. Iglesias (or someone similar), deepen the bullpen, dramatically improve the starting pitching (with proven veterans, which seems to be what Maddon wants), upgrade at SS, AND extend Ohtani within the budget parameters the Angels have been in in recent years. 

I’d let Mayfield, Davis, and Rengifo battle for the SS job.   Save that money for pitching.

Then they can re-sign Cobb and re-sign or QO Iglesias, sign Stroman, and sign a late innings guy.

Then Upton comes off the books in a year, and Ohtani gets his new contract.

[Angelsjunky]

I joked above about this above (zinging over True Grich's head), but Ohtani is essentially two players in one: a #2 starter and an elite hitter. Would anyone offer similar in return, and why would the Angels trade Ohtani for two such players when he does it as one roster spot?

Not to mention that Ohtani's pitching potential hasn't been maxed out. I think he can improve and have a sub-3.00 ERA, and if he brings that up to 160-180 IP, he could produce 5 WAR on both sides. Meaning, how do you valuate a two-way 8 WAR player with 10 WAR potential? Even if this year represents his max production, he's still a 6-8 WAR player, and there are only a few of those in the majors.

Adding in that he has two cheap years of club control and enormous advertising value, I don't see how any team could possibly make Arte an offer he couldn't refuse, at least right now.

Or to put it another way, how many players currently have more future value than Ohtani? That is, in terms of their age, current production level, expected future production level, and contract?

I think the "Big Five" are obvious: Tatis, Acuna, Vlad, Soto, Franco. Those five are likely to be the best five position players of the next decade. But there's no way they're traded, not for Ohtani, not for anyone. And I'm not sure Arte would allow such a trade, except for maybe the very cheap and young Franco.

You could also consider a handful of young pitchers, but their futures are inherently more volatile than hitters, which brings up another aspect of Ohtani's value: Even in a worse-case scenario where he blows out his arm again and decides to focus on hitting, he's still an elite bat who can probably play a solid corner outfield or 1B, so he could be a 6 WAR RF.

 

[Stradling]

23 hours ago, Rollinghard said:

It is precisely because of his marketability that trading him should be strongly considered.  IF done correctly, Angels could score big time. Where does keeping Ohtani get us? 

Well this year it got us about 9 extra wins.