Is trading Ohtani completely out of the question?

[Stradling]

15 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

If they haven’t been able to make it work with Ohtani and previously Trout there’s no reason to have any faith that they’ll be able to make it work with whatever they get back for him.  What they’ll get back is several players who won’t be as good.  In general, when a super star is traded it’s bad for the team that traded the super star.  Especially if the player is still controlled as Ohtani is.  Sure there are handfuls or exceptions.  But again.  Can anyone here honestly say they trust the angels front office to not completely fuck up a trade like this ? 
 

Ohtani expressly said he’s open to staying.  The goal should be to make it work with him. 

I guess

[Stradling]

4 hours ago, fan_since79 said:

Betting on every one of those guys to play a full, healthy season is like drawing a straight flush in five-card draw.

And assuming they’ll all be hurt like this year is just about the same odds. 

[UndertheHalo]

6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I guess

 

[jsnpritchett]

11 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Well this year it got us about 9 extra wins. 

That's not really how WAR works, though it does seem to be a common misconception.

[ettin]

17 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

Good thing you're not wasting your time by posting in any of them, then!

True, but occasionally someone should point out how stupid the premise of the thread is to call attention to the ridiculousness of it.

"Hey let's offer a guy a 2-year arbitration guarantee, watch said player set historical baseball records, then trade him in the 2nd year we agreed he should stay for in the first place!"

Ohtani is a player you build around, not trade unless it is patently crystal clear he will not sign with your team and even then you do not trade him until his last season if you are a competing team.

This isn't that hard. It harkens back to the trade Trout BS. I know the last handful of years have been disappointing, but when you have pieces like this you press forward, not set yourself back a 1,000 feet.

[Stradling]

17 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

That's not really how WAR works, though it does seem to be a common misconception.

I know but it seemed like the easy response. 

[jsnpritchett]

33 minutes ago, ettin said:

True, but occasionally someone should point out how stupid the premise of the thread is to call attention to the ridiculousness of it.

"Hey let's offer a guy a 2-year arbitration guarantee, watch said player set historical baseball records, then trade him in the 2nd year we agreed he should stay for in the first place!"

Ohtani is a player you build around, not trade unless it is patently crystal clear he will not sign with your team and even then you do not trade him until his last season if you are a competing team.

This isn't that hard. It harkens back to the trade Trout BS. I know the last handful of years have been disappointing, but when you have pieces like this you press forward, not set yourself back a 1,000 feet.

I'm generally a pretty reasonable person and I don't think at least raising the subject of possibly trading him is ridiculous.  As I've mentioned elsewhere, unless Arte raises the team's budget, then they really can't reasonably do a lot of the things that people on here and elsewhere seem to expect them to do.  My point has been that if they make a big play for a Scherzer-type pitcher or one of the premium FA SS this off-season, then they're either a) signaling that they aren't really serious about an Ohtani extension, or b) they're open to raising the budget and an Ohtani extension is possible. 

As I've said a billion times before, the team can't reasonably add another $25M+/yr contract AND extend Ohtani, while keeping the budget in a similar place as it is now AND filling in the other gaps with useful players.  The math simply doesn't work out.  If we see another off-season of adding budget-friendly or mid-range players, then I think that's a signal that an Ohtani extension is likely--or at least being considered.  But if those are the moves the Angels make this off-season, then they're not really doing what Maddon, Minasian, etc. have indicated the team needs to do.

It's definitely going to be an interesting off-season, for better or worse.  I wish we could just time-warp past the playoffs and get the hot stove going.

[ettin]

3 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

I'm generally a pretty reasonable person and I don't think at least raising the subject of possibly trading him is ridiculous.  As I've mentioned elsewhere, unless Arte raises the team's budget, then they really can't reasonably do a lot of the things that people on here and elsewhere seem to expect them to do.  My point has been that if they make a big play for a Scherzer-type pitcher or one of the premium FA SS this off-season, then they're either a) signaling that they aren't really serious about an Ohtani extension, or b) they're open to raising the budget and an Ohtani extension is possible. 

As I've said a billion times before, the team can't reasonably add another $25M+/yr contract AND extend Ohtani, while keeping the budget in a similar place as it is now AND filling in the other gaps with useful players.  The math simply doesn't work out.  If we see another off-season of adding budget-friendly or mid-range players, then I think that's a signal that an Ohtani extension is likely--or at least being considered.  But if those are the moves the Angels make this off-season, then they're not really doing what Maddon, Minasian, etc. have indicated the team needs to do.

It's definitely going to be an interesting off-season, for better or worse.  I wish we could just time-warp past the playoffs and get the hot stove going.

Just to be clear I am speaking to the idea of trading Ohtani in the 2nd year of an arbitration contract the Angels intentionally signed him, too, indicating they fully anticipated keeping him for the two-year period (2021-2022). This was designed to give Shohei some guaranteed life-changing money and give the Angels some visibility into his health and performance that they didn't have at the beginning of 2021. So, they both got what they wanted out of this and the fact that Ohtani performed amazingly well only makes this 2-year deal a smart investment for the Halos and to move him now would be criminally irresponsible and thus not a topic of real and serious discussion, particularly when the Angels CAN extend him.

All that being said the additional items listed above do make things a lot trickier. I have been working on the Primer Series and financially the people on this board need to get their heads screwed on straight about what we can do. Unless Arte increases budget and exceeds the Luxury Tax threshold, this team will not be able to afford Max Scherzer, he will be seeking a probable 2-year contract in the low-to-mid $30M+ range. That alone would eat up all available payroll space and may force us over the Luxury Tax even. Then what else? Raisel Iglesias is out of the question, he will command a $16M-$20M per year deal, himself. A FA SS? Out of the question if a top tier FA SP is our priority.

I will talk about it more, but Perry Minasian is resource-constrained, unless Moreno opens up a short, significantly expanded financial window and he has never really done that in his history as owner.

And, yes, it will be an interesting offseason. In fact we will look back at this offseason as a pivotal one in Angels history in my opinion, no matter which way Moreno goes.