Three Options and Cases for Buying and Selling

[Angelsjunky]

It has been the most common topic of the last month or so, but with five games left before the deadline, I thought I'd offer three scenarios, and cases for each. But first, let's look at where the Angels stand, as of this writing.

Where the Angels Stand (as of 7/27)

The Angels are 50-49, in 4th place, 10 GB the 1st place Astros, and 5 GB the 2nd wildcard.

They have five teams ahead of them for the 2nd wildcard: the Athletics (+5), Mariners (+4), Yankees (+1.5), Blue Jays (+0.5), and Indians (tied, but with a higher elimination number, due to having played two fewer games; they're 49-48).

They have five games before the deadline (or four before, one on the day of): two more against the Rockies, and three against the Athletics - all at home.

Option 1: Stand Pat (with only relatively minor moves; aka keep Raisel and Cobb)

The basic argument for standing pat is this: Not only are the Angels not out of it, they have their two biggest position player stars coming back at some point within the next few weeks; and further, their two best trading chips, Raisel Iglesias and Alex Cobb, could be intrinsic parts of next year's team. Trading them away now doesn't exclude the possibility of re-signing them, but that very rarely happens, especially when the player is traded to a contender and does well for them. 

As I've been saying for awhile now, the Angels have the core of a very good team: the offense--when healthy--is stacked. A nice group of young starters is emerging, and the farm is gradually improving. Really all that is needed is a re-vamped bullpen--which Raisel could be an essential part of--and maybe a veteran quality starter, which they have in Cobb. 

So standing pat basically means two things: they think they have a chance to win this year, and they want to keep Cobb and Raisel. It could mean making a minor deal or two, probably to bolster the bullpen. One option would be trading Andrew Heaney for a quality reliever, and then replacing Heaney with Reid Detmers or Chris Rodriguez.

Option 2: Win Now! 

This is an extrapolation from the above, but with more emphasis on winning this year. In this scenario, the Angels really go for it: maybe they go after Max Scherzer or put together an Adell-centered package for German Marquez or Luis Castillo. They'd also need to augment the bullpen.

The basic difference from the above is that it trades away quality prospects for players that may not be with the Angels beyond this year. 

The logic behind this is that the Angels, despite losing their two best players for most of the year, are still on the fringe of contention. Players have stepped up--not only Ohtani's MVP performance, but also strong performances from guys like Cobb, Sandoval, Fletcher, Walsh, and Stassi, not to mention the "little guys" like Mayfield and Gosselin. 

Meaning, you don't tell these guys, "Sorry, but we're going to throw in the towel and look to tomorrow." Instead you say, "We believe in you! Now let's have a magical last two months behind Trout and Rendon and New Players X, Y, and Z!"

Option 3: Build for the Future 

The basic idea here is to cash in as many players whose contracts end this year as you possibly can, with Raisel and Cobb being the two with the most trade value, followed by Heaney, and then a bunch of other guys that could yield fringe prospects.

The argument here starts with where the Angels stand (see above): they only really have a chance for the second wildcard, and have five other teams to contend with.

The second factor is that the Angels pretty much bend over for good teams, and "bully" crappy teams (to quote someone). This doesn't bode well for their remaining schedule, which includes: 3 games vs the White Sox and Dodgers; 4 vs the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Padres; 6 games vs the Mariners; 7 vs the Athletics; and 10 vs the Astros. 

That's 41 of 63 games vs teams with better records.

But let's be optimistic: let's say they somehow manage to hold their own against these teams, going 21-20. And let's also say they continue to dominate lesser teams, going 15-7. Their final record would be 86-76--which is still probably not good enough for the second wildcard, especially when you consider that three of the four teams ahead of them have better winning percentages (.531). In other words, to have a real chance at the second wildcard, they probably need to win at least 90 games--and probably more--which would require them to go 40-23 the rest of the way, with two-thirds of those games against good teams.

If that doesn't convince you, one more factor to consider: the trade value of Raisel Iglesias and Alex Cobb, and, to a lesser extent, Andrew Heaney and even Jose Iglesias and some of the relievers. If you consider what I said above--that the Angels both have a very good core of hitters and starters and very slim chances of earning a postseason berth this year, no matter who they acquire in trade--this is real current value that can add to the team next year and beyond. Raisel and Cobb could bring in a pair of good (50+ FV) prospects, or several 45 FV guys. Other players can be traded for lesser prospects, perhaps future quality relievers.

Bonus argument: We don't know when Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon will be back, not to mention Jared Walsh's mystery injury (which Maddon claims "isn't anything serious," but we've heard that before). And furthermore, we don't know how they'll perform when they come back. Accomplishing the monumental task required to reach the postseason--which essentially boils down to dominating a bunch of really good teams over the next two months--requires a healthy Trout and Rendon.

The Verdict (My Take)

It is probably obvious from the above, but while I'm very tempted to take the first option--Stand Pat with minor moves--I just think that, when all is said and done, they need to sell and re-calibrate for next year.

In truth, if they trade Cobb and Heaney, they aren't necessarily throwing in the towel; they're just swapping them out for Detmers and Rodriguez. We shouldn't expect those guys to dominate over the stretch, but they should at least be able to reproduce what Heaney's done this year, and maybe better.

Furthermore, they can use the remaining two months to assess young talent for next year: not only Detmers and Rodriguez, but also Brandon Marsh, Jo Adell, Matt Thaiss, Michael Stefanic, and a handful of AA/AAA arms like Oliver Ortega, Kyle Tyler, and maybe a few others.

Meaning, option three could be a fun ride, and wouldn't involve the excruciating process of seeing our playoff chances diminish while also having possibly traded away some prospects (if the Angels look the Win Now! option).

A hybrid is also possible, whereby the Angels trade prospects but for controllable arms (with German Marquez and Luis Castillo being frequently mentioned names). But these sorts of trades are pretty difficult to pull off.

 

[Angel Oracle]

We need more than ONE good reliever, Perry!

[totdprods]

9 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

The second factor is that the Angels pretty much bend over for good teams, and "bully" crappy teams (to quote someone). This doesn't bode well for their remaining schedule, which includes: 3 games vs the White Sox and Dodgers; 4 vs the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Padres; 6 games vs the Mariners; 7 vs the Athletics; and 10 vs the Astros. 

Maybe that changes if we actually have better players though, and perhaps Trout and Rendon are back. 

Those numbers can be a little misleading too. A lot of our losses against .500+ teams came when Bundy and Quintana were in the rotation and Sandoval and Suarez were in AAA. Same can be said for bullying sub .500 teams - they came with better pitchers in the rotation. 

I see that schedule and I see opportunity as much as I do adversity. We need to beat Seattle - they've done too much damage to us this year and shouldn't be that good - and opportunity to leapfrog NYY, TOR and diminish Oakland too. 

[Angel Oracle]

Question regarding the pen

Does Perry actually think that starters going deeper into games will improve the pen?

I don’t think so.   The starters have averaged about 6 innings a start in July, and the pen still mostly sucks.

[Stradling]

I think it will be next to impossible to trade Heaney for a solid reliever.  I just think any team looking to add a rental probably isn’t going to weaken their bullpen to get a guy like Heaney. Obviously you can get a AAA type of bullpen arm.  

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Angel Oracle said:

Question regarding the pen

Does Perry actually think that starters going deeper into games will improve the pen?

I don’t think so.   The starters have averaged about 6 innings a start in July, and the pen still mostly sucks.

I don’t know. 

[Angel Oracle]

6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I think it will be next to impossible to trade Heaney for a solid reliever.  I just think any team looking to add a rental probably isn’t going to weaken their bullpen to get a guy like Heaney. Obviously you can get a AAA type of bullpen arm.  

How about Heaney and J. Iglesias?

Have Mayfield take over at SS.

Would just need to call up someone until Rendon is activated.

Bad timing to get hurt, Rendon

[Stradling]

It always seems teams looking to make a playoff run bolster their pen, not trade off parts of it at the deadline. 

[totdprods]

9 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I think it will be next to impossible to trade Heaney for a solid reliever.  I just think any team looking to add a rental probably isn’t going to weaken their bullpen to get a guy like Heaney. Obviously you can get a AAA type of bullpen arm.  

Posted this in another thread, thought I'd copy here...I'm plugging in the Baseball Trade Value numbers here too, just for the heck of it, though I think they're valuing some minor league arms a little too light.

I really like Heaney (and Mayers) to Tampa, the Yankees, San Diego, or the Dodgers. Maybe San Francisco, though I'm not as crazy about their farm unless we're getting someone like Bailey back. They have farm systems so deep that by packaging the two, the Angels should be able to get two legit 15-30 range prospects, or one 5-15 guy back. Those are comprised of bunch of intriguing SP/RPs who are R5 eligible and either MLB-ready, on the 40-man, or R5 eligible this winter. 

And I feel any of those teams could get good results from Heaney and Mayers in return. 

Ideas like Heaney (3.6) + Mayers (2) for...

• NYY: Waldichuk (1.2) and Otto (0.7)
• SDG: Espinoza (1.6) and or two of Lawson (1)/Thompson (1)/Wilson (0.5)/Fox (0.5)
• LAD: Cartaya (19.8), Graterol (13.1), or Pages (12.2) and one of RPs Jackson (2.6)/Grove (0.9)/Carillo(1.6)
• TBD: Edwards (21.8)/Walls (21.1) or Battenfield (1.7)/Mercado (1) - maybe take Kiermaier back to save them money?

Set sights high for someone like Cartaya or Edwards/Walls, a player who will get squeezed out and fill a need, or a couple live arms who would project MUCH better than our current AA/AAA RP crop of Quijada, Higgins, Wantz, Warren.

[jsnpritchett]

40 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

It has been the most common topic of the last month or so, but with five games left before the deadline, I thought I'd offer three scenarios, and cases for each. But first, let's look at where the Angels stand, as of this writing.

 

 

Just a quick procedural note: the deadline is Friday at 1pm Pacific time, so the Angels actually only have 3 games (2 against the Rockies and 1 against the A's) before the deadline. 

[tdawg87]

4 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Just a quick procedural note: the deadline is Friday at 1pm Pacific time, so the Angels actually only have 3 games (2 against the Rockies and 1 against the A's) before the deadline. 

Which they'll probably win, then lose the next 3 against the A's.

[jsnpritchett]

15 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Which they'll probably win, then lose the next 3 against the A's.

Yeah, I said something similar in another thread.  In a weird way, this is my worst nightmare for the team right now.

[ScottM]

The good thing is you have enough offensive pieces to not really hurt the team long term if you want to get a couple of arms. I don't think they should buy a rental under any circumstance, but if you get a good reliever with a few years left for Ward and/or Thaiss you swing that right? 

[totdprods]

4 minutes ago, ScottSted said:

The good thing is you have enough offensive pieces to not really hurt the team long term if you want to get a couple of arms. I don't think they should buy a rental under any circumstance, but if you get a good reliever with a few years left for Ward and/or Thaiss you swing that right? 

I like the Marlins for a low-key relief add or two...they could use someone like Rojas, Rengifo, Thaiss, or Ward, or any minor league position player prospects, and have some solid relief arms...

• RHP Dylan Floro: 30 years old, controlled through '23: 2.70 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 1.28 WHIP in 40 IP with 18 BB, 27 K, 0 HR allowed
• LHP Richard Bleier: 34 years old, controlled through '22: 2.82 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 0.86 WHIP in 38.1 IP with 2 BB, 29 K, 4 HR allowed
• RHP John Curtiss: 28 years old, controlled through '25: 2.56 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 1.11 WHIP in 38.2 IP with 9 BB, 40 K, 4 HR allowed

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

Maybe that changes if we actually have better players though, and perhaps Trout and Rendon are back. 

Those numbers can be a little misleading too. A lot of our losses against .500+ teams came when Bundy and Quintana were in the rotation and Sandoval and Suarez were in AAA. Same can be said for bullying sub .500 teams - they came with better pitchers in the rotation. 

Right - but all this still follows the logic that assumes Trout and Rendon will be back soon and will perform well, which we just don't know. In a way, we might be able to tell the true condition of Trout and Rendon by what Minasian does (or doesn't do). Trading Raisel means they are conceding this year and might mean Trout and/or Rendon will be out longer or all year.

As for the second paragraph, let's check.  Quintana's last start was May 30 and Bundy's last start was June 28. Since Quintana went out, the Angels have gone 10-18 vs good teams. Bundy started three of those games, and the team went 1-2. So the Angels are 9-16 vs good teams in games not started by Bundy or Quintana since May 31. Meaning, they haven't really done better without them starting.

This doesn't mean that they won't do better going forward, with Super Sandoval and Suarez in place, just that they've been bad against good teams pretty much no matter who has started.

 

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

I see that schedule and I see opportunity as much as I do adversity. We need to beat Seattle - they've done too much damage to us this year and shouldn't be that good - and opportunity to leapfrog NYY, TOR and diminish Oakland too. 

Yeah, I thought of that: all those games vs the Astros, Athletics, and Mariners (23) are also games that could be gained. But I think some degree of realism is called for. And again, it is the combination of factors that really make the postseason a long-shot.

I'm not giving up, of course! The best-case scenario is always a postseason berth. But I'm worried about that very possible scenario, that they make a big splash or hold onto everyone, and then never quite get into serious contention and end the year without a postseason berth, having lost prospects, and also potentially losing Raisel and Cobb to free agency.

[Hubs]

So I'm firmly in the win now mode. Without Trout, the Angels have stayed close enough. Hopefully he's back by August 15th and healthy. Hopefully Rendon is back a week earlier and hopefully they call up Thaiss to replace Suzuki or just add to the bench depth and carry three catchers. They also could promote Adell and basically platoon Upton/Adell/Marsh in the corners when Trout comes back.

They can go with one less reliever. I don't understand with a 6 man rotation why they need 8 relievers too. Honestly if Bundy and Quintana aren't in the rotation and effective they need to be traded cut or put on the IL. If they can add a reliever or two, this would drastically help. The other 6 have their ups and downs, but only  Iglesias has been solid. Wantz and Watson are ok. Cishek and Mayers have disappointed at times but then go through great stretches. Guerra is basically useless. They need 1-2 new guys.

And I keep hearing the "beat up on bad teams" lose to good teams thing, and it's true technically, but important to examine a bit deeper than that.

Angels are

3-0 against Baltimore. 3-0 against Arizona. 1-0 Against Colorado, 3-1 Against the Tigers, 4-2 Against KC and 5-2 against the Twins.

That's 19-5 against the bottom of the league...it's true. Add 5-3 against the Rangers and you get to the 24-8 mark.

But they're also

2-1 Against the Yankees, 3-1 Against the White Sox, 2-1 Against the Dodgers, 2-1 Against the Blue Jays and 3-3 Against the Red Sox. That's 12-7 against some good teams with winning records.

So that would put them at 36-15 against everyone but the Giants, Cleveland, A's, Rays, Mariners and Astros.

Winning records against most of the teams they've played (12 of the 18). They haven't played SD yet which is the only team they play this year that they haven't faced.

Against the Giants they're 1-3. Bundy started the first game in SF and did poorly and the offense didn't help, but they dominated the next game behind an excellent start from Heaney. Then at Home they got jumped on early in another Heaney start, and shut down by the Giants pitcher. Then given the opportunity to even the series, they went into extras tied 1-1, and the 12th both teams scored, and the Angels appeared to win the game and then replay overturned it, and the Giants scored 6 runs to win the game in the 13th.

So 1-3 against the Giants. No more games against the Giants remain.

And in the Cleveland series, they won the first one, and then lost the next two by a run, so the games were all close.

1-2 Against Clevaland.

So against 14 of 18 teams they've gone 38-20. Or 1 game under .667 ball.

They've been really bad against the other 4 teams. 1-6 against the Rays 3-9 against the A's, 3-6 against Houston, and 5-8 against the Mariners.

That's 12-29. That's .293 ball.

They don't play the Rays again. But Quintana sucked in game 1.  Rowan, Guerra and Mayers all spoiled decent starts in games 2, 3 and 4. Canning pitched ok in Game 5 and Suarez gave up the run to tie, then Cobb had a terrible start and Quintana, Quijada, and Guerra were terrible in relief, giving up 13 runs in their 6th loss before finally winning the 7th game.

They've gone 11-23 against the teams in their division with winning records.

Of the 23 losses, they've been against both starters and relievers. They got off to a horrible start playing Houston 9 times in their first 39 games and getting outscored 59-24. They lost 2 of 3 to Seattle in that stretch as well, but scored and allowed 14 runs.

Since that miserable 4-8 intradivision start they've lost Mike Trout for 60 odd games, and gone 3-9 against Oakland and 4-6 against Seattle. Trout has not faced Oakland this year. Trout in his career against Oakland has a .968 OPS WITH 38 HR. Against the Mariners, he has a 1.068 OPS with 47 HR. 7-15 against the AL West division (minus Texas), without Trout.

They've been outscored by the A's 57-36. Of those 57 runs, 31 were allowed by the bullpen, and an additional 9 runs were charged to the starters but were inherited runners allowed to score by our terrible pen.

Seattle's numbers aren't as bad. We've actually outscored them 64-63 despite the record. 24 runs have been scored by the Mariners against the Angels pen, 39 against the starters, so it's been pretty even despite the record.

They have 23 games remaining against the Astros (10), A's (7) and Mariners (6). If the Angels have any chance of making the postseason, they have to win at least 6, 5 and 4 of these. That would be 15-8 to go 9-10, 8-11, and 9-10. They'd finish with a losing record against these three teams, but a much closer one.

It does help that 7 of the 10, 7 of the 7 and 3 of the 6 are at home, 17 of 23. Win 3-1, 2-1, 2-1, 3-1, 2-1, at home and hope to go 3-3 in the two road series and it's a done deal 15-8.

Their other 40 games are against the Rockies (2 at home) Rangers (11, 4 at home), Dodgers (3 on road), Toronto (4 at home), Yankees (4, 1 on road, 3 at home), Detroit (3 on road), Cleveland (3 on road), Baltimore (3 on Road), SD (4, 2 at home 2 away), and the White Sox (3 on road).

If they can win these next two against the Rockies, go 8-3 against the Rangers (4-0 at home, 4-3 on road), 2-1 against Dodgers, 3-1 against both Blue Jays and Yankees, Then win 6 of the 9 games against Detroit, Cleveland and Baltimore, split with SD and take the White Sox Series in September, they'd end up 28-12 in this group. Add that to the 15-8 and they'd finish at 43-20, And with 93 wins.

Even if they don't manage that pace, which would be a heck of a run, they can still get to the post season with say 39-24 or 37-26 if they win against their division and the Yankees, Bue Jays and Indians.

Finally, I'd say they need some help to do this, mainly bullpen, but also maybe a starter.

It's a long shot, obviously, but not out of the realm of possibility.

 

[Angels 1961]

sell sell sell bring up Detmers and some young arms for pen. 

[Angels Fan Forever]

I think the Angels will go with some variation of option 1. They are going to make a run for the wild card.

[Docwaukee]

lol at them going 43-20 over the rest of the season.  That's a 110 win pace.  Not only is that insane for a really good team but bonkers for a team that's played 100 games at around .500.   

even winning 87 on the season means they'd have to roll at a 95 win clip for the rest of the year.  They're 1 game over .500 with a negative run differential.  

For the love of everything decent and holy, I want them to make the playoffs too, but come on.  

You're theorizing an almost historical run considering that they've been nowhere close to that so far.  They're 15 games under .500 vs. winning teams and play 44 of their final 63 games vs. winning teams.  

[TheLordofOuts]

SPOILER ALERT:  Guys, I’m from the future. The Halos will stand pat and the bullpen issues will be solved by Quintana and Bundy becoming shutdown reliever options They will go on an unbelievable run on their way to their second championship.   

[ten ocho recon scout]

3 hours ago, Stradling said:

I think it will be next to impossible to trade Heaney for a solid reliever.  I just think any team looking to add a rental probably isn’t going to weaken their bullpen to get a guy like Heaney. Obviously you can get a AAA type of bullpen arm.  

This. 

Iglesias is the only thing I can see bringing back something decent. And even then, I dont see it being anything that we're going to be too excited about

[ten ocho recon scout]

25 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

lol at them going 43-20 over the rest of the season.  That's a 110 win pace.  Not only is that insane for a really good team but bonkers for a team that's played 100 games at around .500.   

Youve obviously never seen even one Rocky movie.

[Angels Fan Forever]

Or Heaney could get something similar but elevated to what the Pirates got for Tyler Anderson. Not much.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Ill say this. Its been pointed out 100 times already how much different things might look with trout.

But @Hubs made a good point up there. Looking past the record, theres been more than a handful of close losses that would have everyone feeling different (if the standings were say 5 games better).

Like AJ has pointed out several times, this team is closer than most realize. Maybe not this year. But even just 2 bonafide solid RPs would do wonders for this team.

Edited July 27, 2021 by ten ocho recon scout

[Lou]

11 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Ill say this. Its been poonted out 100 times already how much different things might look with trout.

But @Hubs made a good point up there. Looking past the record, theres been more than a handful of close losses that would have everyone feeling different (if the standings were say 5 games better).

Like AJ has pointed out several times, this team is closer than most realize. Maybe not this year. But even just 2 bonafide solid RPs would do wonders for this team.

You said poon.