OC Register: Angels midseason breakdown: Next 13 games are critical

[Angelsjunky]

1 minute ago, stormngt said:

Again I  puzzled by the definition of below average, and average on by posters here.

I have read 700 oos is about league average.  However Ward is over 700.

I am told 100 ops+ is average but with the exception of Houston and Red Sox every team in the AL has at least 4 of their 9 players under 100. 

This is Wards second season with OPS over 700.

The AL OPS is .725, so Ward's .711 is slightly below. But sure, with a bounce back he is probably around average. 

[stormngt]

3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Are you an anti-WARist? I know, it can be annoying, but is the best stat we have for overall performance, and is an easy way to compare players.

Anyhow, 2-3 WAR as an average regular is just based on player distribution. Fangraphs defines WAR ranges like so:

Scrub	0-1 WAR
Role Player	1-2 WAR
Solid Starter	2-3 WAR
Good Player	3-4 WAR
All-Star	4-5 WAR
Superstar	5-6 WAR
MVP	6+ WAR

 

Obviously those aren't just regulars, but include "scrubs" and "role players" who, by definition, tend to not have qualifying playing time (502 PA, 162 IP). Of all qualifying players over the last ten full seasons (2010-19), the median WAR is 2.7, which is on the higher end of "solid starter." 

As for Ward, he isn't the worst player to have out there and I think it possible that he could even stabilize as a "low average" regular, around 2 WAR in a full season. Who knows, if he can hit above average (110 wRC+) and manage average defense in RF, he might even pull off 3 WAR.

But that basically is a worst-case scenario for Brandon Marsh, who I think could very easily be as good as Ward right now. I'm not saying that he wouldn't take his lumps if called up, but that it wouldn't take him long to surpass Ward, and he'd be better defensively right away.

I'm not saying that they should call Marsh up right now, but I certainly hope they do sometime in August. I mean, if he continues playing really well in AAA, why wait? Why keep the future at bay? The Angels can fill holes (gross) with guys like Ward and Eaton, but at some point, the future needs to arrive. That point, for Marsh, is very close. He really just needs to be healthy, and so I think a month or so of sustained health in AAA is all that is really necessary.

Unless, of course, the Angels want to play games with his club control, which would be a shame but understandable.

Then why are we debating?

I am not anti War.  I  do not have a clue on how its calculated so I am naturally suspicious of the methodology.  Them I have seen some players WAR numbers to be exceptionally puzzling.   I have begun questioning its utility. 

00 is supposed to be replacement player.   However now I got to take fan graphs definition of a role player 

Then > than 0.00 is better than replacement player.   I would assume them a solid major league reserve.  In other words role player?  Its puzzling if I follow fangraphs definition.

I would also compare WAR more often if it was easier to find.  You do not see team i individual stats with WAR on many sights and i find Fangraohs difficult to navigate.  Is it easy to find teams WAR leaders easily?

 

Edited July 15, 2021 by stormngt

[stormngt]

7 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

The AL OPS is .725, so Ward's .711 is slightly below. But sure, with a bounce back he is probably around average. 

Thanks, 

[Angelsjunky]

9 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Then why are we debating?

Are we? If so, you tell me. 

I think the general conversation is about whether the real Ward is the crap we've seen recently or the hot-streak. As I said several posts ago, the likely truth is somewhere in-between. The Goodwin comp makes sense for a variety of reasons, because--if I remember correctly--Goodwin was also streaky and when he got hot, some folks started hoping that he was finally tapping into his 1st round draft potential. But he always came back to earth, slumped, and his overall numbers were "not bad."

I think Ward is similar. He is "not bad." But he is pretty much the definition of a "role player," and the role he's taking is stop-gap filler until the regulars (Upton and Trout) return and the prospects (Marsh and Adell) are ready.

 

Edited July 15, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[stormngt]

2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Are we? If so, you tell me. 

I think the general conversation is about whether the real Ward is the crap we've seen recently or the hot-streak. As I said several posts ago, the likely truth is somewhere in-between. The Goodwin comp makes sense for a variety of reasons, because--if I remember correctly--Goodwin was also streaky and when he got hot, some folks started hoping that he was finally tapping into his 1st round draft potential. But he always came back to earth, slumped, and his overall numbers were "not bad."

I think Ward is similar. He is "not bad." But he is pretty much the definition of a "role player," and the role he's taking is stop-gap filler until the regulars (Upton and Trout) return and the prospects. (Marsh and Adell) are ready.

We are not debating.  You informing me of the value of of stats and WAR.

I mistook you from a different poster in my debate comment.

I do agree with the Goodwin comp.

Edited July 15, 2021 by stormngt

[Torridd]

Personally, I think Goodwin is a lot better than what Ward has shown us.

[Angels Fan Forever]

21 hours ago, stormngt said:

Again I  puzzled by the definition of below average, and average on by posters here.

I have read 700 oos is about league average.  However Ward is over 700.

I am told 100 ops+ is average but with the exception of Houston and Red Sox every team in the AL has at least 4 of their 9 players under 100. 

This is Wards second season with OPS over 700.

Ward is:

1 for his last 19 (.053) with 9 K's and 0 BB's

9 for his last 56 (.160) with 15 K's and 4 BB's

Ward has been a below average player (Career OPS+ of 80 and BR WAR of -1.0) throughout and is getting worse as the season progresses.

Ward is the definition of below average and the fact that other teams also have below average players on their roster does not make Ward anything other than another below average player.

[Stradling]

6 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Adell will be back up before Marsh so let's get the Marsh idea out of the window..... He's just coming back from a shoulder injury. 

I have no idea if this is true.  

[James]

16 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I have no idea if this is true.  

Once again.....

[Angels Fan Forever]

3 hours ago, stormngt said:

Have we ever had a rookie come in and take immediately? 

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

Obviously i want them to win, and team first, blah blah blah. But like the article said about ohtani..... id prefer they dont push him too much.

The playoff odds are low..... a ring is a pipe dream this year. Id almost prefer (at this point) ohtanis magic season be the focus. See what he can do in a full year, but dont make him have to carry the entire team on his back doing it. I dont want to see him totally gas in august.

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Are you an anti-WARist? 

Hes not anti-WAR, hes just pro War-d.

Also. Flip that M upside down, and Marsh becomes WARsh.... thats got to be a good sign

[AngelsLakersFan]

2 hours ago, stormngt said:

Then why are we debating?

I am not anti War.  I  do not have a clue on how its calculated so I am naturally suspicious of the methodology.  Them I have seen some players WAR numbers to be exceptionally puzzling.   I have begun questioning its utility. 

00 is supposed to be replacement player.   However now I got to take fan graphs definition of a role player 

Then > than 0.00 is better than replacement player.   I would assume them a solid major league reserve.  In other words role player?  Its puzzling if I follow fangraphs definition.

I would also compare WAR more often if it was easier to find.  You do not see team i individual stats with WAR on many sights and i find Fangraohs difficult to navigate.  Is it easy to find teams WAR leaders easily?

 

0 is a replacement level player, but you might notice that a significant number of players perform around -1 to +1 war so 0-1 being a 'scrub' is just short hand for saying a guy isn't good enough to really separate himself from a replacement level player. Thus 1-2 becomes classified as a role player which is, as you said a typical major league reserve. An average MLB starter is going to put up around 2-3 war.

Ward being around a 100 OPS+ makes him an average hitter but you have to consider the other two major components of war, which are defense and playing time. Defensive value is given based on relation to average. As a primary corner outfielder he is going to be below average in terms of defensive value, and since he hasn't really done well defensively he is going to take another hit. His poor defense then impacts his playing time as well.

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, Angels Fan Forever said:

Ward is:

1 for his last 19 (.053) with 9 K's and 0 BB's

9 for his last 56 (.160) with 15 K's and 4 BB's

Ward is not good at MLB.

Ward has been a below average player (Career OPS+ of 80 and BR WAR of -1.0) throughout and is getting worse as the season progresses.

Ward is the definition of below average and the fact that other teams also have below average players on their roster does not make Ward anything other than another below average 

Nane one major leaguer who hasnt gone into slumps.  That is why there is something called an average.

However trolls like you do not like averages because defeats bullshit narrative you are trying to promote.

No fuck yourself and troll someone else. 

[stormngt]

32 minutes ago, Angels Fan Forever said:

 

Wow...had to go back to 1986 to find an example. 

I think that proves my point. 

[stormngt]

27 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

0 is a replacement level player, but you might notice that a significant number of players perform around -1 to +1 war so 0-1 being a 'scrub' is just short hand for saying a guy isn't good enough to really separate himself from a replacement level player. Thus 1-2 becomes classified as a role player which is, as you said a typical major league reserve. An average MLB starter is going to put up around 2-3 war.

Ward being around a 100 OPS+ makes him an average hitter but you have to consider the other two major components of war, which are defense and playing time. Defensive value is given based on relation to average. As a primary corner outfielder he is going to be below average in terms of defensive value, and since he hasn't really done well defensively he is going to take another hit. His poor defense then impacts his playing time as well.

The best way to do it is crunch numbers.

What is the average War for all combined MLB qualified players?

What is the medium War for all position players 

What is the WAR  average per te among top 9 plate appearances. 

Is there a way to figure it out?

Basically you are saying the average "replaceable player is somewhere between -1 and +1.

A solid major keaguer is 2 to 3.

I would like to see if those numbers actually say in real production.

I guess what's confusing me is when I look up each teams individual stats each team has 4 to 5 players <.5 War.

That means average player would be performing at <1 War.  Granted this is just a quick look and didnt actually crunch the numbers.

 

Edited July 15, 2021 by stormngt

[Angels Fan Forever]

43 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Nane one major leaguer who hasnt gone into slumps.  That is why there is something called an average.

However trolls like you do not like averages because defeats bullshit narrative you are trying to promote.

No fuck yourself and troll someone else. 

I am not sure why you are so angry. Taylor Ward is not a very good player based solely on his performance. Maybe it changes, maybe not.

I don't know why you chose to make it personal, it's just baseball, but whatever.

I hope you have a better day tomorrow. No ill will on my part.

Peace out.

[Lou]

57 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Nane one major leaguer who hasnt gone into slumps.  That is why there is something called an average.

However trolls like you do not like averages because defeats bullshit narrative you are trying to promote.

No fuck yourself and troll someone else. 

storm, please watch what you say to other posters. 

[stormngt]

17 minutes ago, Angels Fan Forever said:

I am not sure why you are so angry. Taylor Ward is not a very good player based solely on his performance. Maybe it changes, maybe not.

I don't know why you chose to make it personal, it's just baseball, but whatever.

I hope you have a better day tomorrow. No ill will on my part.

Peace out.

I am angry because you deliberately cherry pick stats that you know are irrelevant just to be a dick.  

So go be a dick to someone else and leave me alone.

 

[stormngt]

9 minutes ago, Lou said:

storm, please watch what you say to other posters. 

My apologies to those who read it.

[Lou]

Just now, Angels Fan Forever said:

Really? OK.

Please don't pick me, I've had long day. 

[Angels Fan Forever]

6 minutes ago, Lou said:

Please don't pick me, I've had long day. 

 

[Dtwncbad]

[Dtwncbad]

[Angel Oracle]

Now that Eaton is with the Halos, will the RF platoon be:

A) Eaton/Ward?

B) Eaton/Lagares?

Lagares can also spell Upton late in games in LF.

We can likely all agree that Rengifo NOT playing in the OF is a good thing.  

Edited July 15, 2021 by Angel Oracle