General NHL Talk 2021-2022

[gotbeer]

Rumor has it Duncan Keith will be traded soon.  Sounds like to a Pacific Northwest or Western Canada team.  So Seattle, Calgary, Vancouver, Edmonton.  The Hockey Guy on Youtube confirms that it isn't Vancouver.  (If you don't watch his little shows, he's a good watch.  He's a pure fan, but he's gotten so big that he watches almost every game, and is really insightful).  Also, the hockey guy says that it might be a multi team trade.  With that rumor of Lindholm and Winnipeg, Keith makes sense, and is where he's from so he'd probably waive his nmc.  Also the article points that Calgary and Edmonton have salary cap issues, and Keith has a $5.5 cap hit, but a $3.6 money hit.  

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nhl/blackhawks-exploring-potential-duncan-keith-trade-report/ar-AALDzXj?ocid=BingNewsSearch

[Pujols4MVP]

13 hours ago, gotbeer said:

@Pujols4MVP  So you'd rather protect 2 players that will not be with the team in 2022-23 in Manson and Lindholm.

Exposing Manson ? They would trade Manson for picks and prospects before exposing him and letting him go for free, they could have done that at the last trade deadline.

At the deadline players like Foligno were returning a 1st round pick, a RHD like Manson would have gotten a 1st + prospects and Lindholm even more.

This offseason or at the deadline they could still trade them and get a 1st + prospects for each of them, that is much better assets than what Steel, Jones and Volkov are if they choose to protect 3 extra marginal forwards over 2 Dmen.

What a way to run the Ducks into being a bigger joke in the NHL if they were to just hand out Manson and Lindholm to Seattle.

[Pujols4MVP]

Something like Manson for Sam Reinhart would give the Ducks a legit top 6 center. Both players are UFA so it'd be a gamble to see if they can re-sign Reinhart.

With 50% retention on both Lindholm and Manson they could get a lot at next years trade deadline or this offseason in a trade, assets that would be more valuable than protecting a few extra bottom 6 guys like Steel, Jones and Volkov.

Contending teams would give up quality assets if Murray were to trade them.

Even Fleury has more value than Steel/Volkov/Jones. Its alot easier to find a bottom 6 forward than a 2nd pair Dman who can eat minutes.

[deepdrive]

They tried to move Manson at the last trade deadline. No one would give them anything worth having in exchange. He's not worth what the contract pays.

Fowler's contract is for 5 more years @ 6.5M. He's not worth that now and he'll be worth even less as he ages.

It's a new reality now, post covid losses. The cap isn't going to increase for awhile and teams don't have the cap space to overpay players. I think it was a beat writer for the Ducks that recently posted that 4 players rated higher than Fowler are free agents this year and all are expected to sign a contract more favorable than Fowler's.

Top this off with Bob's inability to strike good deals for the Ducks and you have two assets that you're not going to get the type of returns you're talking about. In a rebuild, he would have already made the trades if he could.

[gotbeer]

Eichel, Sabres 'heading toward a resolution' for injury treatment: report

[gotbeer]

12 hours ago, Pujols4MVP said:

Something like Manson for Sam Reinhart would give the Ducks a legit top 6 center. Both players are UFA so it'd be a gamble to see if they can re-sign Reinhart.

With 50% retention on both Lindholm and Manson they could get a lot at next years trade deadline or this offseason in a trade, assets that would be more valuable than protecting a few extra bottom 6 guys like Steel, Jones and Volkov.

Contending teams would give up quality assets if Murray were to trade them.

Even Fleury has more value than Steel/Volkov/Jones. Its alot easier to find a bottom 6 forward than a 2nd pair Dman who can eat minutes.

Reinhart is an arbitration eligible RFA.  

If the Sabres trade Reinhart, I'd imagine it's for picks/prospects.  Trading Reinhart/Eichel would be a move more towards a rebuild, not a we will contend with Hall type move.

Manson is way overvalued by Ducks fans and BM.  No way will he get what BM thinks he can get.  It just doesn't happen in the NHL.  Players drafted in the 6th round, unless they become superstars, which Manson is not, will not be traded for 1st round picks.  Especially in the static cap era, those first rounders are worth more than gold.  Objectively, Manson is probably worth a 4th rounder.  On a good day, a 3rd rounder.  And a 2nd rounder would be thievery.  Which might be why BM hasn't been able to trade him.  Because he sees him as a first or 2nd rounder.

Lindholm does have value being a 6th overall.  That's why that rumor of Lindholm for Dubois might have some legs if the Jets have soured on Dubois, and the playoffs showed that they need D help.  So there might be a fit there.  

Steel and Jones are still first round picks and still young.  So they still have value.  Jones especially is growing into a type of player that teams, and especially playoff teams covet.  That big player that will go to the front of the net, that doesn't have hands of stone.  Also one that isn't afraid to scrap it up.  I can actually see Jones being moved to the #1 line, if Terry doesn't progress.  Him causing havoc in the crease, with Z on the puck, and Comtois moving to open slots would not be the worse thing.  Steel on the other hand has been disappointing.  I was hoping he would take a big leap this season, but he's shuffled back down right now to a third/fourth line.  I expect him to be part of a package deal for someone this offseason.  Volkov is a tough one.  It's too early to say on him.  For the Ducks he was at 8 pts in 18 games at a bit under 14 minutes a game.  That's on pace for a 36 point season.  Which isn't bad for the limited games/minutes.  Right now, he'd be on the third line, and that might be a good productive fit for him.  

Fleury, paired with Drysdale, has become the 7th overall pick that was hoped for by Carolina.  That we got him on the cheap was an absolute steal.  But with where he was picked, he would always have more value than Steel/Volkov/Jones, especially since none of them has broken out.  

[gotbeer]

Blue Jackets G Kivlenieks dead at 24

[arch stanton]

That sucks.

RIP 

[gotbeer]

Snapshots: Blue Jackets, Sabres, Buyouts, DeAngelo

Quote

(Rasmus) Dahlin, (Dylan) Cozens, (Casey) Mittelstadt, these are very, very young players… And I’ve been energized about this young core of Sabres we have that are hungry and they want to be part of the solution. … These guys are proud to be Buffalo Sabres, they want to fix this and get this right, they want to move forward together. So that’s the young core that we’re working to build around.

So I guess, Reinhart, Eichel, Olofsson, and Ristolainen are available?  

[gotbeer]

NHL Trade Rumors: Vladimir Tarasenko Requests Deal Over Blues' Handling of Surgeries

Man, that's a lot of big pieces that are going to be on the move this offseason.

[gotbeer]

Oilers Acquire Duncan Keith From Chicago For Caleb Jones And A Third Round Pick

Edited July 12, 2021 by gotbeer

[gotbeer]

Finally, the Duck killer retires.

Thank You, Nashville

[gotbeer]

Yikes.

Wild buying out Ryan Suter, Zach Parise

 

Quote

The moves create $10.33 million in cap space. The Wild will pay each player $6.7 million over the next eight years and be charged with $2.371 million, $6.371 million and $7.371 million cap hits in the next four years, respectively, for each, then $833,333 cap hits the four years after that for each.

 

Looking at capfriendly.  That would be $4.74 million, $12.74 million, $14.74 million, $14.74 million, $1.66 million, $1.66 million, $1.66 million, $1.66 million in cap hits.  

[arch stanton]

That's an ugly cap hit. I expected Parise but not Suter

[gotbeer]

Surprising that they are so far apart.

Latest On Gabriel Landeskog’s Pending Free Agency

Then again, you have Land O lakes, Grubauer, Saad as UFA's.  Makar a RFA that may be a target of an offer sheet.  And you have Burakovsky as a UFA in 2022 and McKinnon as a UFA in 2023.  That's a lot of money when you are also paying Rantanen $9.5 million.  

[arch stanton]

I expect a trade is in works to jettison Graves and maybe Donskoi. Those are also the 2 most likely to get taken in the expansion draft. Once that happens they can decide with both Landeskog and Makar if they want to give term to keep the AAV down. 
 

The closest Landeskog comp right now is Anders Lee at 7 by 7 and Makar would be north of the 8 by 8 that Chabot got in Ottawa. MacKinnon money will come from the end of the Erik Johnson contract that freezes up 6 million 

[gotbeer]

23 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

I expect a trade is in works to jettison Graves and maybe Donskoi. Those are also the 2 most likely to get taken in the expansion draft. Once that happens they can decide with both Landeskog and Makar if they want to give term to keep the AAV down. 
 

The closest Landeskog comp right now is Anders Lee at 7 by 7 and Makar would be north of the 8 by 8 that Chabot got in Ottawa. MacKinnon money will come from the end of the Erik Johnson contract that freezes up 6 million 

Yeah, but does Grubauer get Bobrovsky money at 7/$70 or Vasilevskiy at 8/$76 or lower like Hellybuck at 6/$37 or Gibson 8/$51?  That's the one that can blow things up.

[gotbeer]

FYI, here is the offersheet numbers.  They went down this year.

https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2021/06/2021-offer-sheet-compensation.html

Quote

$1,356,540 or less	No compensation
$1,356,540 to $2,055,364	Third-round pick
$2,055,364 to $4,110,732	Second-round pick
$4,110,732 to $6,166,096	First and third-round picks
$6,166,096 to $8,221,463	First, second and third-round picks
$8,221,463 to $10,276,829	Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $10,276,829	Four first-round picks

 

And here is the gotcha on offer sheets.

Quote

An offer sheet’s average annual value is also calculated slightly differently than a normal contract; if the contract is of a length greater than five years, the total salary is still divided by five to determine the AAV. That would mean a seven-year contract worth $8MM per season would actually carry an AAV of $11.2MM for purposes of offer sheet compensation.

 

Edited July 14, 2021 by gotbeer

[arch stanton]

6 hours ago, gotbeer said:

Yeah, but does Grubauer get Bobrovsky money at 7/$70 or Vasilevskiy at 8/$76 or lower like Hellybuck at 6/$37 or Gibson 8/$51?  That's the one that can blow things up.

More like Binnington, Markstrom at 6 by 6

[gotbeer]

So IMO, this is just weird.  

On one hand, you have Anthony Duclair.

Florida Panthers Re-Sign Forward Anthony Duclair to a Three-Year Contract

Re-signed to a 3 year contract at $3 million.  25 year old, so was still a RFA.  But still his numbers were 32 points in 43 games last season.  40 in 66 games the season before. 

Then you have Zach Hyman.

Latest On Zach Hyman

29 year old UFA.  Leafs are probably not going to re-sign him, because he wants a full 7-8 year deal between $5.5-6 million.  In six seasons, he's never had more than 40 points.  Just doesn't seem like someone you want to commit that long to.

If that's what the going market is, then maybe Silfverberg will have some value on the trade market.

[deepdrive]

It's not the market until he gets it. I would be very surprised if he does.

[gotbeer]

Ryan Graves Traded To New Jersey Devils

Quote

The Colorado Avalanche have dealt defender Ryan Graves to the New Jersey Devils in exchange for Mikhail Maltsev and a second-round pick in 2021, originally owned by the New York Islanders.

 

Meanwhile, Murray is asleep and will hold onto his precious Manson until someone will give him 5 #1 picks.  And we'll lose a young player in the expansion draft.

[arch stanton]

You’re going to lose someone in the expansion draft. This should force Seattle to choose a forward, probably either Donskoi or Compher. It goes a long way toward getting the cap space to sign the FAs

[gotbeer]

20 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

You’re going to lose someone in the expansion draft. This should force Seattle to choose a forward, probably either Donskoi or Compher. It goes a long way toward getting the cap space to sign the FAs

For the Ducks, I would want them to chose between Henrique, Silfverberg, or Manson.  But Murray is going to protect his precious, so we will probably lose a young player and be stuck with an extra $5 million in salary.  

[arch stanton]

2 hours ago, gotbeer said:

For the Ducks, I would want them to chose between Henrique, Silfverberg, or Manson.  But Murray is going to protect his precious, so we will probably lose a young player and be stuck with an extra $5 million in salary.  

They're going to have better D options than Manson but C will be tough to come by. Might be able to entice them into Henrique with a mid-round sweetener