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Ohtani MVP odds


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32 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Crazy how we currently have the top 1 and 2 AL MVP favorites. If Ohtani continues to dominate with the bat and do at least above average on the mound, I could see him having a fighting chance.

If he does that he probably should win it. Would be ironic for Trout to have a career year and still lose out on the MVP to Shohei.

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It is going to be very interesting to see how much extra credit Ohtani gets for doing something that others aren't that can't be quantified.  Or it could have the opposite effect where he would have accumulated more traditional value if he'd only been just a pitcher or hitter.  

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55 minutes ago, WicketMaiden said:

If he does that he probably should win it. Would be ironic for Trout to have a career year and still lose out on the MVP to Shohei.

While the voters are a bit more analytically-minded these days, the simple uniqueness of Ohtani's game could well earn him MVP honors.   

But he'll need to (continue to) be superlative on one side or the other - he can't be a middle-of-the-pack DH, and a middle-of-the pack pitcher.   Baseball has no clue how to value someone like him.  But two league-average players won't make an MVP, even if it's the same player.  

Imagine if he starts playing in the field - say, 50 games in RF? - if that happens, all bets are off.

(that won't happen, and I don't want it to - but he's a good enough athlete to do it.)

 

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I really think it can be justified if his pitching and hitting remains stable. If he doesn't go into a slump in either role the MVP will be his. The total value to his team exceeds any player that only performs one role at the very highest level. 

Currently his combined hitting and pitching is video game level. 

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Back when Ohtani first came over in 2017, before his UCL issue came up, Sam Miller wrote an article on ESPN speculating how good Ohtani might be as a two-way player.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21678789/which-shohei-ohtani-most-fun-shohei-ohtani

His top comps in the ideal scenario listed were Carrasco for pitcher and Springer for batting. Miller does note, however, that even that isn't necessarily Ohtani's ceiling.

Despite the command issues while pitching, Ohtani is demonstrating that he could be even better than that at both, which is just amazing. The big question, probably the only one that can limit his ceiling is: Can he stay healthy? Currently, it's the blister issues, but in past seasons it's been other stuff. I don't think it's that Ohtani is fragile, he's just putting an absurd amount of stress on his body. Maybe he's just a freak of nature and can handle it  - I hope so - but we'll have to wait and see.

If - and that is the biggest of ifs - he can stay healthy, he's easily the most talented player in the majors, because his skill puts him in both the conversation of best pitchers and batters. If his workload doesn't keep him back, it would be really hard to quantify that level of dominance.

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7 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

Back when Ohtani first came over in 2017, before his UCL issue came up, Sam Miller wrote an article on ESPN speculating how good Ohtani might be as a two-way player.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21678789/which-shohei-ohtani-most-fun-shohei-ohtani

His top comps in the ideal scenario listed were Carrasco for pitcher and Springer for batting. Miller does note, however, that even that isn't necessarily Ohtani's ceiling.

Despite the command issues while pitching, Ohtani is demonstrating that he could be even better than that at both, which is just amazing. The big question, probably the only one that can limit his ceiling is: Can he stay healthy? Currently, it's the blister issues, but in past seasons it's been other stuff. I don't think it's that Ohtani is fragile, he's just putting an absurd amount of stress on his body. Maybe he's just a freak of nature and can handle it  - I hope so - but we'll have to wait and see.

If - and that is the biggest of ifs - he can stay healthy, he's easily the most talented player in the majors, because his skill puts him in both the conversation of best pitchers and batters. If his workload doesn't keep him back, it would be really hard to quantify that level of dominance.

Hes MVP if he keeps this up, and stays healthy. I dont see any other way to put it.

Trout is the better hitter, along with a handful of others. Plenty of better pitchers. 

But the combo is unbelievable. And if we're talking value.... how much would he cost the team as a hitter, and as a pitcher.... vs both.

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I think he'll have to be really awesome at one and above average at the other if he were to get serious consideration. I would guess that his bat will be the better of the two but I'm not sure it will be at a level that warrants MVP votes. I think Trout is going to have a monster year and get the MVP. 

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2 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Hes MVP if he keeps this up, and stays healthy. I dont see any other way to put it.

Trout is the better hitter, along with a handful of others. Plenty of better pitchers. 

But the combo is unbelievable. And if we're talking value.... how much would he cost the team as a hitter, and as a pitcher.... vs both.

Which would you rather happen: 

1) Ohtani wins MVP

2) Ohtani wins Cy Young and Trout wins MVP

3) CRod wins Rookie of the Year and Pujols wins Comeback Player of the Year

4) Jack in the Box brings back Toasted Raviolis from 25 years ago

 

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15 minutes ago, Justin said:

Which would you rather happen: 

1) Ohtani wins MVP

2) Ohtani wins Cy Young and Trout wins MVP

3) CRod wins Rookie of the Year and Pujols wins Comeback Player of the Year

4) Jack in the Box brings back Toasted Raviolis from 25 years ago

 

You guys are idiots if you dont choose 4. Players come and go.

Anyone give a shit about cy young from 25 years ago?

But you flock to the mcrib every year, dont you

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3 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Hes MVP if he keeps this up, and stays healthy. I dont see any other way to put it.

Trout is the better hitter, along with a handful of others. Plenty of better pitchers. 

But the combo is unbelievable. And if we're talking value.... how much would he cost the team as a hitter, and as a pitcher.... vs both.

Who knows if he'll keep it up on offense, but right now .300/.350/.600+ seems totally plausible with 40+HR and 100+RBI. If he does that and gets 20-ish starts in with a sub-4.00 ERA, I think he just has to win the MVP. That would be absolutely insane to see in real life, but it doesn't seem out of the question right now if he stays healthy.

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