Fangraphs: The Angels are currently the 4th best team in the AL - has the easiest path to further improve?

[Warfarin]

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=1

Currently, we rank #4 in the AL in terms of fWAR, behind the Yankees, Astros, and Twins (6th overall in baseball).

Obviously this number is meaningless, as the game is played on the field, but certainly it's a nice barometer to show that we do have a good amount of talent.

The Iglesias acquisition actually boosted us up a bit pretty nicely.

The question is, how to further improve in the most cost efficient fashion?

Obviously, acquiring a top flight SP will help boost us, but probably the easiest ways to improve this team are by acquiring a better backup catcher (or someone to split time with Stassi, who grades rather well by fWAR), and significantly improving our RF production, where we are currently rated #29 out of 30.  Our bullpen, despite losing like half of them yesterday, is still actually ranked #19, which isn't terrible.

So obviously, while our focus will be pitching, we can actually get some pretty good mileage by simply finding a LHH RF to platoon with Ward and finding a better backup catcher to split time with Stassi.

 

[Angelsjunky]

I see two basic possibilities:

One, go all in on Bauer, and then fill in the gaps with journeyman types.

Two, say no to Bauer and invest in several mid-range free agents: a good starter, an innings eater/swingman, a near-elite reliever or two, and a solid platoon catcher, possibly a one-year rental in RF.

There doesn't seem to be a lot of room between. On paper, the latter route makes more sense, but the first route could also work with a savvy trade or two, and some lucky free agent signings. But of course the Angels will probably have to go the latter route, as Bauer is likely to sign elsewhere.

Edited December 4, 2020 by Angelsjunky

[Warfarin]

27 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I see two basic possibilities:

One, go all in on Bauer, and then fill in the gaps with journeyman types.

Two, say no to Bauer and invest in several mid-range free agents: a good starter, an innings eater/swingman, a near-elite reliever or two, and a solid platoon catcher, possibly a one-year rental in RF.

There doesn't seem to be a lot of room between. On paper, the latter route makes more sense, but the first route could also work with a savvy trade or two, and some lucky free agent signings. But of course the Angels will probably have to go the latter route, as Bauer is likely to sign elsewhere.

Yeah.  I mean, in truth, my dream scenario would be to:

1.  Sign Bauer

2.  Trade Adell to LAD for Gonsolin / Ruiz.

3.  Find a platoon OF and bullpen help cheaply

Signing Bauer and acquiring Gonsolin effectively makes our rotation Bauer, Bundy, Heaney, Gonsolin, Canning, Ohtani*

We could then utilize Barria and Sandoval in relief.  Our bullpen could become Mayers, Pena, Buttrey, Ramirez, Sandoval, Barria, Reyes.  I'm sure we'd also make several under-the-radar type signings or very cheap signings to add an arm or two as well, which shouldn't break the bank.  Given how many relievers and corner OFers there are in free agency now, it should be easy to fill both spots with little financial resources.

But doing the above would give us an ace, a really solid mid-rotation SP, and our catcher for the next 6+ years.  That would be the dream offseason, IMO.

And, looking to seasons beyond this one - we could re-sign one of Bundy or Heaney, such that our SP nucleus moving forward is Bauer, one of Bundy/Heaney, Gonsolin, Canning, Ohtani*.  The 5th spot, by 2022, could potentially be filled by either Detmers or Rodriguez.  Assuming one of those two pans out, we'd actually have many years of that nucleus together, as Bauer + Bundy/Heaney would be signed to long-term deals, and Canning, Gonsolin, Detmers/Rodriguez would be good, young, cheap SP who would help anchor the staff.

[Second Base]

I think within the realm of possibilities, trading Adell is extremely unlikely. If we're speaking in generalizations, I think you'll probably see...

1. A veteran catcher around 2-3 million.

2. A couple reclaimation project relief pitchers from the non-tender list. A million each.

3. A couple free agent relief acquisitions, well say 5 million each. 

4. A reclaimation project starting pitcher from that non-tender list 1 mill. 15 million spent so far.

5. One free agent starting pitcher, probably around 15 million.

6. Trade for one starting pitcher. Added payroll getting around 5 million.

So Minasian will spend around 35 million remaking the roster.

 

 

 

[totdprods]

Not sure if Minasian was a part of this in Atlanta, but I thought it was interesting how they added both Donaldson and Ozuna the last two offseasons on one-year pillow rebound deals, despite having suitable youngsters in place - Camargo and Riley. 

There isn’t really anyone that fits that type of FA mold this year - Semien was the closest that came to mind - but it would be interesting to see if anyone starts to emerge as a similar candidate as the offseason goes on. 

[Second Base]

34 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Not sure if Minasian was a part of this in Atlanta, but I thought it was interesting how they added both Donaldson and Ozuna the last two offseasons on one-year pillow rebound deals, despite having suitable youngsters in place - Camargo and Riley. 

There isn’t really anyone that fits that type of FA mold this year - Semien was the closest that came to mind - but it would be interesting to see if anyone starts to emerge as a similar candidate as the offseason goes on. 

Jake Odorizzi, Joc Peterson, Jose Quintana, James Paxton and Carlos Santana are all very imperfect fits for the scenario you described. But all possibilities I suppose.

[totdprods]

7 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Jake Odorizzi, Joc Peterson, Jose Quintana, James Paxton and Carlos Santana are all very imperfect fits for the scenario you described. But all possibilities I suppose.

I’ve always liked Santana...I wondered a bit if Walsh could grow into a serviceable stopgap RF option for a year (or more if they pursue Freeman for some reason) if Santana was an option.

Ozuna in his own strange way is a little tempting, as is LeMahieu (perhaps with Fletcher as a RF/super sub option?) 

[Turd Ferguson]

Wouldn't mind bringing on Schwarber on a pillow deal. He and Maddon have history.

[totdprods]

10 minutes ago, Turd Ferguson said:

Wouldn't mind bringing on Schwarber on a pillow deal. He and Maddon have history.

Problem is he’s limited to LF, 1B, and DH, so he’d only take away ABs from Upton, Walsh, and Ohtani - and presumably Pujols. Don’t see a fit.

[Warfarin]

51 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Problem is he’s limited to LF, 1B, and DH, so he’d only take away ABs from Upton, Walsh, and Ohtani - and presumably Pujols. Don’t see a fit.

I think Schebler might be the route we go if we decide to spend most of our money on pitching, as he can play both RF/LF decently enough while providing left-handed power.

If we want to spend a bit more, we can consider either Joc Pederson or David Dahl.  I think there's a strong chance we roll with Schebler/Ward in RF, then when Marsh is ready, he can take over and be the full-time RF.

[wopphil]

There is zero chance we roll with the outfield as currently constructed. For sure we bring in a Goodwin type. 

At least two solid starting pitchers will be added. I’d be thrilled with Richards and Quintana. 

And two pens arms are coming in as well. Probably a solid free agent (a May type) and a lower tier guy. 

[tdawg87]

53 minutes ago, wopphil said:

I’d be thrilled with Richards and Quintana.

[Docwaukee]

was checking this out the other day.  net overall seems fair.  specifics wise I think they short change Fletch a bit.  probably overrate Stassi a bit.  

no matter how many times I look at it, I seem to have somehow forgotten how friggin good Rendon is.  Damn.  

the absolute game changer for this team is Ohtani.  I think his 2020 has left people with decreased expectations but this team is totally different if we get the 2018 version vs. the 2020.  I know we don't want to count on him being on the mound and I agree we shouldn't, but come on.  We could use a little love here.  

Pen needs a lot of work in my opinion.  Honestly, I don't trust one guy on the current roster right now to hand the ball off to in a close game.  I know it's unlikely, but I would feel a lot better if Mayers, Pena and Buttrey end up 4th, 5th and 6th on the depth chart and not because of poor performance.  

[Docwaukee]

8 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I see two basic possibilities:

One, go all in on Bauer, and then fill in the gaps with journeyman types.

Two, say no to Bauer and invest in several mid-range free agents: a good starter, an innings eater/swingman, a near-elite reliever or two, and a solid platoon catcher, possibly a one-year rental in RF.

There doesn't seem to be a lot of room between. On paper, the latter route makes more sense, but the first route could also work with a savvy trade or two, and some lucky free agent signings. But of course the Angels will probably have to go the latter route, as Bauer is likely to sign elsewhere.

if we go get Bauer (which I think is very unlikely), then I would actually say f it and trade Adell and others not named Marsh, Detmers, Rodriguez or Koch to get the best possible controllable rotation arm I could get.  

I am also fairly confident that Minasian would let RF go without at least getting someone mediocre.  

[Warfarin]

3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

if we go get Bauer (which I think is very unlikely), then I would actually say f it and trade Adell and others not named Marsh, Detmers, Rodriguez or Koch to get the best possible controllable rotation arm I could get.  

I am also fairly confident that Minasian would let RF go without at least getting someone mediocre.  

This is my thinking as well.

I would love to do a mega deal with either the Dodgers or Braves, as they both have a surplus of what we need.

Playing on Baseballtradevalues, a "fair" trade with the Dodgers could be:  Adell for RHP Gonsolin, C Ruiz, RHP Dennis Santana, OF Luke Raley.

Why would the Dodgers do it?  The Dodgers are in need of a significant RHH to balance their lineup.  They have a ton of great LHH, and of course they have Betts, but Turner is a free agent, and even if Turner was back, they're still a bit lacking.  Adell would give them a possible star in LF and a RHH thumper they could put in the lineup for years to come.

Why would we do it?  Gonsolin projects as a very solid SP3, or at worst a very solid SP4.  Ruiz has been a top 50 prospect for years but is blocked by Smith.  For us, he'd be our starting catcher and be the solution we have been looking for.  Dennis Santana would give us a reliever with options who, at worst, is a middle innings reliever but has high-leverage upside.  Luke Raley projects as a 4th OF type, but he's a LHH with power and could split time with Ward in RF.

I would do the above, in conjunction with going all in on Bauer.  I'd shift Barria and Sandoval to the pen.  Santana would be added to the pen as well. 

Assuming Bauer earns 27-30mil in AAV, then I'd sign Kirby Yates to a 1/5 deal and sign someone like Brandon Morrow to a non-guaranteed deal, with the hope that he can finally be healthy and contribute.

Lineup:  2B Fletcher, 1B Walsh, CF Trout, 3B Rendon, DH Ohtani, LF Upton, RF Raley or Schebler/Ward (until Marsh is ready), C Ruiz, SS Iglesias

Bench:  1B Pujols, IF Rengifo or Barreto, IF/OF Ward, C Stassi

Rotation:  Bauer, Bundy, Heaney, Gonsolin, Canning, Ohtani*

Bullpen:  Yates, Mayers, Pena, Buttrey, Ramirez, Sandoval, Santana, Barria, with the possibility of Morrow depending on health.  Beyond them, in AAA we'd have Reyes, Naughton, etc..

RF would be a weak spot until Marsh is ready, but I feel it'd be serviceable enough, especially in the context of the team we have.

The cost would be ~32-35mil, depending on the cost of Bauer, which I feel is within the realm of Arte's budget.

 

[totdprods]

57 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Playing on Baseballtradevalues, a "fair" trade with the Dodgers could be:  Adell for RHP Gonsolin, C Ruiz, RHP Dennis Santana, OF Luke Raley.

 

Zero percent chance of this happening. 

The simulator is a useful tool as a quick test to see if a trade is fair, but it exists in a vacuum.

No team would trade four useful young pieces for one prospect no matter how good. The odds of it blowing up are too great, no matter how good Adell is. So even though on paper their values may come out equitable, in real world it just doesn’t make sense logically.

It’d be like Kansas offering us I dunno, Bobby Witt Jr. for Jared Walsh, Jordyn Adams, Jaime Barria, and Luis Rengifo. It’s a great prospect to have but the depth we’d give up is a little too much of a all eggs in one basket scenario.

[Warfarin]

10 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Zero percent chance of this happening. 

The simulator is a useful tool as a quick test to see if a trade is fair, but it exists in a vacuum.

No team would trade four useful young pieces for one prospect no matter how good. The odds of it blowing up are too great, no matter how good Adell is. So even though on paper their values may come out equitable, in real world it just doesn’t make sense logically.

It’d be like Kansas offering us I dunno, Bobby Witt Jr. for Jared Walsh, Jordyn Adams, Jaime Barria, and Luis Rengifo. It’s a great prospect to have but the depth we’d give up is a little too much of a all eggs in one basket scenario.

Realistically, yeah, I know.  It’s just fun to play around with the tool.

That said, for the Dodgers, Santana and Raley are very much replaceable, fringe roster players, so I looked at that more as a throw-in.  Would we be able to get Gonsolin and Ruiz for Adell, is probably more of the key question.

[Docwaukee]

4 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Realistically, yeah, I know.  It’s just fun to play around with the tool.

That said, for the Dodgers, Santana and Raley are very much replaceable, fringe roster players, so I looked at that more as a throw-in.  Would we be able to get Gonsolin and Ruiz for Adell, is probably more of the key question.

not sure why the Dogs would do that.  Trade a key piece of their rotation for a guy who's not ready.  

[Warfarin]

4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

not sure why the Dogs would do that.  Trade a key piece of their rotation for a guy who's not ready.  

Well - even without Gonsolin, they have Kershaw, Buehler, Price, Urias, May.  That's one helluva rotation.  You could argue Gonsolin wouldn't even crack the rotation currently.  They also have a very good prospect, Josiah Gray, who will likely be ready within a few months of the start of the season.

The Dodgers are loaded with SP and catching, so they could afford to deal from surplus, if they felt they were acquiring a future star in Adell.  The one area the Dodgers need more depth is in a power hitting RHH, IMO.  Otherwise, they're basically set.

[Angel Oracle]

19 hours ago, Warfarin said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=1

Currently, we rank #4 in the AL in terms of fWAR, behind the Yankees, Astros, and Twins (6th overall in baseball).

Obviously this number is meaningless, as the game is played on the field, but certainly it's a nice barometer to show that we do have a good amount of talent.

The Iglesias acquisition actually boosted us up a bit pretty nicely.

The question is, how to further improve in the most cost efficient fashion?

Obviously, acquiring a top flight SP will help boost us, but probably the easiest ways to improve this team are by acquiring a better backup catcher (or someone to split time with Stassi, who grades rather well by fWAR), and significantly improving our RF production, where we are currently rated #29 out of 30.  Our bullpen, despite losing like half of them yesterday, is still actually ranked #19, which isn't terrible.

So obviously, while our focus will be pitching, we can actually get some pretty good mileage by simply finding a LHH RF to platoon with Ward and finding a better backup catcher to split time with Stassi.

 

Can Ward play RF defense 60 games a year?

[tdawg87]

14 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Can Ward play RF defense 60 games a year?

Probably. The question is can Ward play RF defense 60 games a year and not be awful?

I think he can absolutely be better than Adell was out there but that's a pretty low bar. Minasian may not like the idea of him playing RF in nearly half the games, but we'll see. I think he'll get a shot, at least.

[BTH]

6 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Realistically, yeah, I know.  It’s just fun to play around with the tool.

That said, for the Dodgers, Santana and Raley are very much replaceable, fringe roster players, so I looked at that more as a throw-in.  Would we be able to get Gonsolin and Ruiz for Adell, is probably more of the key question.

I see no reason at all why the Dodgers would want to trade Gonsolin and Ruiz for Adell. They have Bellinger in CF, Betts in RF long-term, and they are paying Pollock $31M over the next two seasons. They also have Taylor, Raley, McKinstry, Peters, and Beaty as guys who could play LF.

The Dodgers are smart, and they know pitching depth is needed. They also know that catchers are a valued commodity because there are so few good two-way catchers. They don't have space for Adell, nor do they have the time to wait for him to develop. Kershaw always goes on the IL a couple times a season and Buehler always misses a few starts with blisters. They are going to keep their pitching depth.

While the value may match up, it makes no sense for the Dodgers to make that trade.

[Hubs]

A more likely trade with the Dodgers involves them giving us a prospect or two for taking on David Price, so they can add Nolan Arenado. Think Barria, Rengifo and Ward for Price and a Catcher. Ruiz probably is a bit rich for that type deal bc hed likely have to go to Colorado for Arenado. But maybe we could get a guy like Muncy. 

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

A more likely trade with the Dodgers involves them giving us a prospect or two for taking on David Price, so they can add Nolan Arenado. Think Barria, Rengifo and Ward for Price and a Catcher. Ruiz probably is a bit rich for that type deal bc hed likely have to go to Colorado for Arenado. But maybe we could get a guy like Muncy. 

That’s a great point.  But yeah, that said, I don’t think they’d part with Ruiz to simply unload Price.  

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, Trendon said:

I see no reason at all why the Dodgers would want to trade Gonsolin and Ruiz for Adell. They have Bellinger in CF, Betts in RF long-term, and they are paying Pollock $31M over the next two seasons. They also have Taylor, Raley, McKinstry, Peters, and Beaty as guys who could play LF.

The Dodgers are smart, and they know pitching depth is needed. They also know that catchers are a valued commodity because there are so few good two-way catchers. They don't have space for Adell, nor do they have the time to wait for him to develop. Kershaw always goes on the IL a couple times a season and Buehler always misses a few starts with blisters. They are going to keep their pitching depth.

While the value may match up, it makes no sense for the Dodgers to make that trade.

Okay, I gotcha.

Still - I'd like to try to build a trade to acquire Ruiz, at least.  Or Langeliers of the Braves, although he's probably 2 years or so away from playing in the MLB, whereas Ruiz is ready now.

Not sure what we could offer the Dodgers.  Perhaps a 3-way deal would be needed.