Fangraphs: The Angels are currently the 4th best team in the AL - has the easiest path to further improve?

[BTH]

13 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Okay, I gotcha.

Still - I'd like to try to build a trade to acquire Ruiz, at least.  Or Langeliers of the Braves, although he's probably 2 years or so away from playing in the MLB, whereas Ruiz is ready now.

Not sure what we could offer the Dodgers.  Perhaps a 3-way deal would be needed.

Ruiz is a good target, but it's just so hard to match up with the Dodgers in a trade. They are so deep in every area and their farm system is loaded.

The one area it seems they may need some work on is their bullpen, and the Angels need to work on their own bullpen themselves.

[Halodays]

On 12/3/2020 at 6:52 PM, totdprods said:

Problem is he’s limited to LF, 1B, and DH, so he’d only take away ABs from Upton, Walsh, and Ohtani - and presumably Pujols. Don’t see a fit.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-kyle-schwarber-cubs-notes-spt-0616-20170615-story.html

 

If Ohtani and Upton struggle like last year, I wouldn't mind seeing Schwarber take some ABs away from them.

[eligrba]

1 hour ago, Halodays said:

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-kyle-schwarber-cubs-notes-spt-0616-20170615-story.html

 

If Ohtani and Upton struggle like last year, I wouldn't mind seeing Schwarber take some ABs away from them.

Uptown was doing well at the end of the season, thanks to Joe. Upton will be fine.

[Lou]

33 minutes ago, eligrba said:

Uptown was doing well at the end of the season, thanks to Joe. Upton will be fine.

That means he sucked at the beginning of the season, thanks to Joe.

[Docwaukee]

6 minutes ago, eligrba said:

Uptown was doing well at the end of the season, thanks to Joe. Upton will be fine.

plus, the Angels aren't going to bring anyone in that would take away at bats from either.  

[Warfarin]

 

Notably, the Angels have the second best offensive group in baseball, per Fangraphs, just behind the Dodgers.  If we acquired a decent LHH OF to platoon in RF (like Pederson or Dahl), we'd actually probably be right around the best.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 12/3/2020 at 5:26 PM, Second Base said:

Jake Odorizzi, Joc Peterson, Jose Quintana, James Paxton and Carlos Santana are all very imperfect fits for the scenario you described. But all possibilities I suppose.

Goodwin is a FA. He was a good to very good 4th OF for us before we traded him. He could play RF if Adell continues to struggle at the plate. Adell or Marsh could be part of a trade for pitching, if a possible deal turns up. How long before Marsh gets a shot with the Angels? He's not doing us any good in the minors.

[RallyMo]

On 12/3/2020 at 5:19 PM, Randy Gradishar said:

Make Arte Go Away

Abbreviate that however you like.

 

 

Will do.

MARGOAWA

You're welcome.

[Warfarin]

Updating this thread:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=1

Apparently, Fangraphs has replaced their depth chart projections with the ZIPS projections (as opposed to Steamer).  Using that, we are actually now considered the 3rd best team in the AL, behind the Yankees and White Sox, and notably ahead of the Astros and Twins.

Considering we are not done with our offseason and likely to add 1-2 SPs, that's pretty good.  Perhaps this team isn't as bad off as most think.

[Jay]

Weird how you have the 3rd best team in the league and you fire your GM.

[Angelsjunky]

Looks like the Angels have slipped to sixth in projected WAR since this thread started. Looking at their projections, there are some areas that could be improved just by positive developments from within:

1B. They project Walsh to hit .244/.308/.468 with a 0.9 WAR, which may be reasonable but could easily be improved upon. Matt Thaiss also seems like a bit of a forgotten darkhorse and could be due for a breakout. The elephant in the room is the Angels continuing to bleed via giving Pujols playing time. 

2B. 2.0 WAR for Fletcher seems weird. He's accrued 7.0 WAR in his first 283 games, which is about 4 WAR per full season's worth of games. 2019 (3.4 in 154 games) was a stabilization of 2018's level (1.9 in 80 games) across a full year, and he improved a bit in 2020 (1.6 in 49 games). 3-4 WAR seems a more accurate projection. 

LF. They have 1.0 WAR for Upton, which may well prove to be accurate if 2019-20 is his new talent level. But given his injuries, there's a real chance that he can bounce-back to at least a 2-3 WAR level.

RF. They have the group with a 0.9 WAR total, which is a reasonable projection but discounts the possibility of someone breaking through--either Ward or Schebler, or possibly Marsh or Adell.

As for the pitching, there's probably not a huge amount of room to improve form within. They project Canning, Bundy and Heaney all in the 2-3 WAR range, so I suppose at least Canning (2.0) and Bundy (2.5) could be a tad better. But obviously they can improve by signing someone like Bauer.

All that said, the same probably applies for every team.

Edited January 18, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[Revad]

50 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Updating this thread:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=1

Apparently, Fangraphs has replaced their depth chart projections with the ZIPS projections (as opposed to Steamer).  Using that, we are actually now considered the 3rd best team in the AL, behind the Yankees and White Sox, and notably ahead of the Astros and Twins.

Considering we are not done with our offseason and likely to add 1-2 SPs, that's pretty good.  Perhaps this team isn't as bad off as most think.

Could we just get one good starter and maybe go to the playoffs?

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Revad said:

Could we just get one good starter and maybe go to the playoffs?

Yes. If most of the following happens:

- Trout and Rendon are healthy

- At least one of Upton and Ohtani has a bounce-back year

- At least one of Ward, Walsh, Marsh or Adell has a breakout

- Bundy maintains close to his 2020 form

- Heaney is healthy

- Canning continues to develop

- Barria continues as is and/or Sandoval takes a step forward

- Ohtani pitches 100 innings

- The bullpen is solid

EDIT: Emphasis on "most." Not all of it needs to happen for the Angels to reach the postseason, but most of it does. If we categorize all teams into three tiers, with tier one being "definite contenders" and tier three being "a snowball's chance in hell," the Angels are solidly in tier two, probably somewhat middle-of-the-pack: the teams that, if most things break right can contend, but are far from a sure thing. If they make some improvements, they could be among the better tier two teams, bordering on tier three.

Edited January 18, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[Warfarin]

47 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Looks like the Angels have slipped to sixth in projected WAR since this thread started. 

Actually - we were 4th in the AL in projected WAR when this thread started and are now 3rd in the AL, so we have actually “improved” in that regard

[Blarg]

Other teams have done little so far in the off season so this ranking is unreliable. 

[BTH]

6 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Looks like the Angels have slipped to sixth in projected WAR since this thread started. Looking at their projections, there are some areas that could be improved just by positive developments from within:

1B. They project Walsh to hit .244/.308/.468 with a 0.9 WAR, which may be reasonable but could easily be improved upon. Matt Thaiss also seems like a bit of a forgotten darkhorse and could be due for a breakout. The elephant in the room is the Angels continuing to bleed via giving Pujols playing time. 

2B. 2.0 WAR for Fletcher seems weird. He's accrued 7.0 WAR in his first 283 games, which is about 4 WAR per full season's worth of games. 2019 (3.4 in 154 games) was a stabilization of 2018's level (1.9 in 80 games) across a full year, and he improved a bit in 2020 (1.6 in 49 games). 3-4 WAR seems a more accurate projection. 

LF. They have 1.0 WAR for Upton, which may well prove to be accurate if 2019-20 is his new talent level. But given his injuries, there's a real chance that he can bounce-back to at least a 2-3 WAR level.

RF. They have the group with a 0.9 WAR total, which is a reasonable projection but discounts the possibility of someone breaking through--either Ward or Schebler, or possibly Marsh or Adell.

As for the pitching, there's probably not a huge amount of room to improve form within. They project Canning, Bundy and Heaney all in the 2-3 WAR range, so I suppose at least Canning (2.0) and Bundy (2.5) could be a tad better. But obviously they can improve by signing someone like Bauer.

All that said, the same probably applies for every team.

I think what the depth chart projections show is that the Angels could greatly use an outfielder, whether they end up starting in RF, covering some LF, or both. Also, adding at least 1-2 solid pen arms would be extremely beneficial.