SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19

[RallyMo]

2 minutes ago, Lhalo said:

Uh oh. Between that and murder hornets we better extend the lockdown. You know, for the childrenz.

Touchy touchy.

[red321]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-cases-united-states.html

Coronavirus in America now looks like this: More than a month has passed since there was a day with fewer than 1,000 deaths from the virus. Almost every day, at least 25,000 new coronavirus cases are identified, meaning that the total in the United States — which has the highest number of known cases in the world with more than a million — is expanding by between 2 and 4 percent daily.

 

As the New York metro area has seen a recent decline in new cases, the number of cases in the rest of the United States has steadily increased.

“If you include New York, it looks like a plateau moving down,’’ said Andrew Noymer, an associate professor of public health at the University of California, Irvine. “If you exclude New York, it’s a plateau slowly moving up.”

[Adam]

3 minutes ago, calscuf said:

No shit, something tells me it’s not Adam that’s missing the Asian hand job houses the most.

Do I really look like an Asian handy guy?

[red321]

1 minute ago, Adam said:

Do I really look like an Asian handy guy?

well, by your own admission you resemble a sweaty ballsac

[Adam]

I'm going to have to assess my life

[Lou]

4 minutes ago, Adam said:

Do I really look like an Asian handy guy?

[Amazing Larry]

37 minutes ago, red321 said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-cases-united-states.html

Coronavirus in America now looks like this: More than a month has passed since there was a day with fewer than 1,000 deaths from the virus. Almost every day, at least 25,000 new coronavirus cases are identified, meaning that the total in the United States — which has the highest number of known cases in the world with more than a million — is expanding by between 2 and 4 percent daily.

 

As the New York metro area has seen a recent decline in new cases, the number of cases in the rest of the United States has steadily increased.

“If you include New York, it looks like a plateau moving down,’’ said Andrew Noymer, an associate professor of public health at the University of California, Irvine. “If you exclude New York, it’s a plateau slowly moving up.”

Um... the number of cases are supposed to increase. That's how you get herd immunity. The only thing that matters is whether or not the hospitals are overloaded and the vulnerable are protected.

[Blarg]

I don't think Noymer knows what the word plateau means. 

[RallyMo]

It is just the flu.

[Blarg]

Don't you mean the flew? 

[red321]

4 minutes ago, Lhalo said:

Um... the number of cases are supposed to increase. That's how you get herd immunity. The only thing that matters is whether or not the hospitals are overloaded and the vulnerable are protected.

so you are good with 1000+, moving towards 3000 a day dying? 

Keeping in mind this is moving into the rural areas now, where hospitals do not have the capacity larger urban areas like NY, LA, and Chicago have. This graph also highlights, NY numbers are giving a false impression that we have flattened the curve nationally when in reality the virus is starting to impact rural areas at a time states are opening up.

[red321]

14 minutes ago, calscuf said:

Red, it’s gonna take “patriots” dying for those people to take this shit seriously.  So be it.

I guess so. Amazing that as parts of the rest of the world try to slowly get back to normal the US has decided to just give up.

But hey, we can take solace in the face we can watch opening day! (of Korean baseball...the same Korea that reported its first case the same day the US did)

[Amazing Larry]

24 minutes ago, red321 said:

so you are good with 1000+, moving towards 3000 a day dying? 

Keeping in mind this is moving into the rural areas now, where hospitals do not have the capacity larger urban areas like NY, LA, and Chicago have. This graph also highlights, NY numbers are giving a false impression that we have flattened the curve nationally when in reality the virus is starting to impact rural areas at a time states are opening up.

The communities that are being hit hard might want to stay inside a little longer. As long as the hospitals aren't overwhelmed the death rate will be the same as if we were on lockdown. 

We aren't going to change the amount of people who get hit by this. We can only change which individuals get sick. The faster we get the healthy infected and recovered the faster we'll reach herd immunity and get past this. Lockdowns only postpone the inevitable when the hospitals aren't crowded.

[Amazing Larry]

7 minutes ago, red321 said:

I guess so. Amazing that as parts of the rest of the world try to slowly get back to normal the US has decided to just give up.

But hey, we can take solace in the face we can watch opening day! (of Korean baseball...the same Korea that reported its first case the same day the US did)

We're not giving up, we're taking the virus on. People realize that if this economy doesn't get fired up soon there will be more irreparable damages to our well being. You are free to stay inside as long as you want. Nobody is preventing you from doing that.

[Adam]

It isn't wrong to perform a benefit-cost analysis.

I wish there were models as widely shared as the C19 models projecting the impact of economic depression.

How many 3rd world people - mostly children are clothed, fed, sheltered and educated because middle class first world people give away their money? 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-n-warns-hunger-pandemic-amid-threats-coronavirus-economic-downturn-n1189326

Everyone, right and left, is so America-centric. Would you trade a half million American lives to save a million globally? 

[Rico]

First case in France was in December.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52526554

[red321]

20 minutes ago, Lhalo said:

The communities that are being hit hard might want to stay inside a little longer. As long as the hospitals aren't overwhelmed the death rate will be the same as if we were on lockdown. 

We aren't going to change the amount of people who get hit by this. We can only change which individuals get sick. The faster we get the healthy infected and recovered the faster we'll reach herd immunity and get past this. Lockdowns only postpone the inevitable when the hospitals aren't crowded.

so your answer is yes, you are ok with 3000+ deaths a day for the foreseeable future

[Amazing Larry]

2 minutes ago, red321 said:

so your answer is yes, you are ok with 3000+ deaths a day for the foreseeable future

If that many people are going to die anyway then what is your point? You want to drag this out forever? The hospitals are EMPTY here in OC. The LA health spokesman beetlejuice looking lady stated the other day that some 47% or so deaths up there have been from people in nursing homes. I’m at more of a risk eating Del Taco than dying from this bug. Go ahead and shelter in place. I’m going to enjoy my life. 

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

On average over 7,000 people die each day in the US.  Initially elective surgeries were put on the back burner which means some people weren't able to take measures to reduce the likelihood of their situation getting worse but luckily those restrictions seemed to have mostly been lifted in the last few weeks.  No one wants to see people die but the reality is no matter what we do the virus isn't going to disappear and people are going to die from it.  The point was to flatten the curve and not overwhelm healthcare which was accomplished in many areas throughout CA.  Whether we slowly open up with certain restrictions and measures in place or sit in hiding, open up then do a massive lock down all over CA because there's an out break in one county people are going to die from the virus.  Whether we like it or not one of those two options will have a greater economic impact going forward and there are repercussions from that which also has a cost in lives.     

[Jason]

50 minutes ago, Lhalo said:

The communities that are being hit hard might want to stay inside a little longer. As long as the hospitals aren't overwhelmed the death rate will be the same as if we were on lockdown. 

We aren't going to change the amount of people who get hit by this. We can only change which individuals get sick. The faster we get the healthy infected and recovered the faster we'll reach herd immunity and get past this. Lockdowns only postpone the inevitable when the hospitals aren't crowded.

You mean hiding from a virus won't work?

[Jason]

17 minutes ago, Lhalo said:

If that many people are going to die anyway then what is your point? You want to drag this out forever? The hospitals are EMPTY here in OC. The LA health spokesman beetlejuice looking lady stated the other day that some 47% or so deaths up there have been from people in nursing homes. I’m at more of a risk eating Del Taco than dying from this bug. Go ahead and shelter in place. I’m going to enjoy my life. 

I think they are over the entire state. I haven't heard of one that is overwhelmed 

[Jason]

43 minutes ago, Rico said:

First case in France was in December.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52526554

I think it's a given that this was spread way before the Chinese came forward about it. 

[Amazing Larry]

9 minutes ago, calscuf said:

Ha ha, we're not taking the virus on.  That's like getting in the ring with a boxer and just standing there as you get punched.

And maybe your economy is being damaged. Mine is looking bright.

[Jason]

16 minutes ago, calscuf said:

Ha ha, we're not taking the virus on.  That's like getting in the ring with a boxer and just standing there as you get punched.

And maybe your economy is being damaged. Mine is looking bright.

He is right. We can't hide from this virus forever. Hell, there is no guarantee we will ever have a vaccine or cure for it and we can't keep this lock down shit going forever. I'm glad that people like you and I are not fazed financially over this but millions of others are. It's a fact that poverty leads to all kinds of health and wellness issues too so that can't be ignored. 

Edited May 5, 2020 by Jason

[red321]

3 minutes ago, Jason said:

He is right. We can't hide from this virus forever. Hell, there is no guarantee we will ever have a vaccine or cure for it and we can't keep this lock down shit going forever. I'm glad that people like you and I are not fazed financially over this but millions of others are. It's a fact that poverty leads to all kinds of health and wellness issues too so that can't be ignored. 

I agree, we can't hide from it forever.

What I don't agree with is just throwing up our hands, and that is what we are doing. 

It's been said from the beginning, there are steps that should occur before we just go back to normal. Flatten the curve, aggressive and coordinated testing, and detailed contact tracing. Plans to identify where outbreaks occur and then quickly working to stop those outbreaks. That shit is fucking hard (but could also put a lot of people to work). In part that was key component of shutting things down. Flatten the curve, get supplies where needed, lessen impacts on hospitals, and get plans in place for managing this shit moving forward.

Nationally they didn't even attempt it. Some states are working to put some of those plans in place, others just said fuck it...too hard.  Let's use those who can't afford to stay at home as our canaries and see what happens.

And yes, tens of millions of people are impacted financially. And those are the people who are going to get kicked in the balls;, the workers who can't stay at home and work. Some of the largest outbreaks we are seeing involve grocery store workers, food processing/distribution factories.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-updates.html#link-717676f7

Hell, they are phasing out the national task force. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-updates.html#link-717676f7

Trump administration officials are telling members and staff of the coronavirus task force that the White House plans to wind down the operation in coming weeks despite growing evidence that the crisis is raging on, Maggie Haberman reports.

It is not clear whether any other group might replace the task force. But its gradual demise, which officials said might never be formally announced, would only intensify the questions about whether the administration is adequately organized to address the complex, life-and-death decisions related to the virus and giving adequate voice to scientists and public health experts in making policy.

While the task force’s advice has sometimes been swept aside by President Trump and its recommendations for criteria on reopening for business defied by a number of states, it has served as the closest thing the White House has for running a centralized response to the pandemic.

A top adviser to Vice President Mike Pence who has helped oversee the task force, Olivia Troye, has told senior officials involved in the task force to expect the group to wind down within weeks, a notice echoed by other top White House officials. While the task force met Tuesday at the White House, Monday’s meeting was canceled, and a Saturday session, a staple of recent months, was never held.