Trading Andrew Heaney

[totdprods]

Sounds crazy right? It probably is, and there's very scenarios I think where it could be realistic, but I did have a few creative ideas brewing around I thought I'd post up to generate some new ideas and discussion. Obviously, any trade involving Heaney is pretty much contingent on the Angels having already secured at least one of Cole/Strasburg, and very likely a solid second arm too, so every scenario below is made with an understanding we've already addressed the top two spots in the rotation. First, some background on Heaney...

Andrew Heaney:
Heaney is due to make a projected $5m in arbitration this winter, perfectly reasonable (in fact, probably a deal) for someone with his floor, upside, and relative dependability, especially for the Angels rotation. A big year could lift his arbitration next season upwards of $8-10m, depending on how well he performs. However, the Angels only control him for two more seasons - 2020 and 2021, meaning he's very likely at the peak of his trade value this winter - more than one year of control, a-yet-unrealized ceiling, and a very affordable salary.

Here are a few possible landing spots for Heaney, and a couple ideas on how it might come to be.

Chicago Cubs: 
Faced with a bloated payroll, numerous needs (including the rotation), and an expectation to rebound with a new manager, the Cubs will likely need to get creative this winter in order to make some necessary moves to improve. Adding to this, there's a Joe Maddon connection now, which could help open some dialogue on certain players. 

• Why it makes sense for the Cubs: The Cubs are short on SP prospects and very heavy on expensive veteran SPs - Darvish at $22m, Lester at $20m, Hendricks at $12m, Quintana at $11.5m, with Chatwood ($13m) also in the mix. Hamels at $20m is off the books, but also open to returning. Andrew Heaney, at $5m, would be a huge bargain for a team in need of affordable, dependable, proven pitching. Not quite as dire as their need to clear money and improve their rotation are secondary needs in both the bullpen and at second base, two areas in which the Angels might also be a little flexible, depending on how the rest of the winter's moves play out. Angels young pitching prospects, arbitration relievers, and perhaps even Tommy La Stella or someone like Jahmai Jones or Luis Rengifo could be of interest too.
• Why it makes sense for the Angels: The Cubs are likely to pick up Jose Quintana's option at $11.5m, and he could become a trade chip. While he costs twice as much as Heaney and comes with one less year of control, he has made 31+ GS every season since 2013 with a 3.72 ERA, 3.59 FIP, and 1.256 WHIP along the way. Essentially, he'd represent an actualized version of what we'd hope to expect from Heaney. Less likely would be Kyle Hendricks, who has four guaranteed years and an option year remaining on an AAV around $13m, an extremely team-friendly deal. Yu Darvish finished the year very strong and the Cubs likely don't see him as a salary dump yet, nor would the Angels be able to easily accommodate his salary. Tyler Chatwood's contract, Angels ties, and groundball tendencies could also factor in to some sort of deal, though the Angels would certainly not take on all the money. The other name to watch is Victor Caratini, who is currently stuck backing up Wilson Contreras, who is under control for three more seasons. Caratini has a lot of value, but the Cubs could make better use of him then relegating him to a back-up - a position that they've still not entirely trusted him with, as they've acquired vet back-ups frequently as well.
• A theoretical deal: Andrew Heaney, perhaps a lesser-SP prospect and/or a RP or 2B prospect for Quintana/Hendricks and Caratini - the Angels get a proven, stable arm for the rotation and a promising young catcher.
  • Why it won't work: In short, money.

Arizona Diamondbacks:
The Diamondbacks were a surprise contender in 2019, especially after losing Corbin, Pollock, Goldschmidt, and Greinke all over the course of the year. Robbie Ray, Steven Souza, David Peralta, Taijuan Walker, and Jake Lamb are all walking after 2020. Thanks to the Greinke and Goldschmidt trades though, and a brilliant deal for Zac Gallen, they've added an enormous amount of young, MLB-ready talent. 

• Why it makes sense for the Diamondbacks: Heaney isn't the best fit for Arizona's needs - he will himself likely hit free agency right before the next wave of prospects starts producing MLB results - but he does offer some stabilization to a rotation that is likely to lose Ray and Walker by the end of 2020, while still giving them an affordable arm to count on the year following. Heaney could benefit from NL West ballparks and find himself strong trade bait for Arizona after 2020 or at the 2021 deadline as well, giving them a chance to top off their farm with more prospects. And again, at a projected $5m arb salary, he'll be affordable. 
• Why it makes sense for the Angels: Robbie Ray is certainly someone the Angels could and should watch this offseason - numerous teams will be as well. Ultimately, the Angels will likely be outbid in prospect capital if someone swings a deal for Ray, who will be in his last season before free agency and is currently expected to make around $10m-11m in arbitration, but offering Andrew Heaney as a main piece in a Robbie Ray deal could allow them to save from including a prospect or two. Ray's price will certainly still be high though.
• A theoretical deal: Heaney, Rengifo/Thaiss, Suarez/Barria/Sandoval for Ray - the Angels land that third and final arm to their top two FA signees in a totally revamped rotation featuring Ohtani as the #4, and they do so without giving up Marsh or any other tip-top prospects. The Diamondbacks get a trio of MLB-ready players that can immediately contribute to any 2020 contention hopes they might have.
  • Why it won't work: The Angels are simply outbid on prospect capital, which is more appealing to Arizona.

Cincinnati Reds:
Cincy has declared they intend to increase payroll and push to compete again in 2020, a year after several win-now trades failed to produce a playoff appearance in 2019. Their problem will again be courting free agent pitchers to their ballpark, an issue that forced them to make deals last season for Sonny Gray, Alex Wood, Tanner Roark, and ultimately, Trevor Bauer.

• Why it makes sense for the Reds: Once again, the Reds will be tasked with building up some arms behind Castillo and Mahle, and with numerous teams on the hunt for pitching in FA, Cincy might need to turn to trade market. They've also shown a surprising willingness to include prospects in deals, even for short-term rentals, something the Angels might be able to take advantage of.
• Why it makes sense for the Angels: One thing the Reds also have a number of is solid catchers, including one, Curt Casali, the Angels let get away. Casali also appeared with the Rays in Maddon's final year. Tucker Barnhart is another option here, a sort of Yasmani-lite, a switch-hitter with a bit of pop, good discipline, and good defensive skills. The Reds also have a top prospect, Tyler Stephenson, close to MLB-ready, negating the need for two veteran backstops possibly as soon as this season. Another name to watch here could be any of the Cincinnati relievers, Iglesias, Garrett, Lorenzon, Stephenson, Hughes, Sims, all prove that the Cincy pen is deep enough to allow one departure in a trade, and any of whom would represent solid add to the Angels pen. Anthony DeSclafani is entering his walk year, and is also tabbed for ~$5m in arbitration, and has produced solid results in the rotation, but he wouldn't be an ideal replacement for Heaney in the Angels' rotation, nor would Cincy likely be in a place to swap one SP for another. That said, Heaney's extra year of control and comparable salary could intrigue them, and if the Angels like him as a secondary piece in a deal, it could balance out.
• A theoretical deal: Heaney (perhaps plus a lotto-ticket prospect like Jones/Ward/Thaiss) for Casali/Barnhart/DeSclafani and a reliever.
  • Why it won't work: As intriguing as any of the Cincinnati names mentioned *could* be, none of them really come with the slam-dunk you'd want in giving up Heaney. Still, Cincy has been aggressive - perhaps they 'overpay' and dangle Garrett, Iglesias, or two-way Anaheim native Lorenzen as a second piece involving a catcher.

Chicago White Sox:
Another team hoping to see their youth movement mature into a competitive team in 2020, the White Sox will be seeking stability in their rotation and will again face challenges luring free agents to their team. 

• Why it makes sense for Chicago: With Carlos Rodon and Kopech recovering from TJS and a number of young arms still developing, the White Sox have nothing productive behind breakout Lucas Giolito. Heaney would help stabilize the rotation and take some pressure of the Sox young arms without closing the door on a potential '20 surprise season. 
• Why it makes sense for the Angels: Non-tendered by Detroit last winter and signed by the Sox soon after, veteran catcher James McCann, long well-regarded for his defense, enjoyed a blistering first half offensively. 2020 will be his final year before free agency, and like Heaney, he is tabbed to make around $5m in arbitration. Was his first-half a fluke? Should Chicago have sold high in July? Someone like Heaney could represent an interesting swap, as the money remains the same for Chicago (who also has Welington Castillo on an $8m option as an in-house replacement), and Heaney comes with one more year of control over McCann. That said, the deal would favor Chicago heavily. The Angels could turn their eye to someone like out-of-options Dylan Covey or Rule 5-eligible Dane Dunning as other potential pitching targets to try and rope in as part of a larger deal.
• A theoretical deal: Heaney (plus perhaps a lesser prospect, Jones, Hermosillo) for McCann and Covey/Dunning
  • Why it won't work: McCann comes with too much risk, especially without any bankable starting pitching returning in the deal. Dunning and Covey might still have a bit too much prospect shine for Chicago to part with either for a short-term rental as well.

Other ideas:

• Atlanta fits, but not much the Angels could benefit from, unless Atlanta wanted to part with a couple MLB-ready SP prospects.
• Texas: Heaney, an Oklahoma-native, might appeal from a 'hometown' perspective, and a deal comparable to the Robbie Ray-template could be explored for Mike Minor.
• As a driver to shed Cozart's salary, even if he's dead-weight to an acquiring team, allowing the Angels to free up an $18m total on 2020 salary for another arm, perhaps someone like a Cole Hamels on a one-year - again, following two other FA SPs.

Again - there aren't many scenarios where this makes sense, but I thought there were a couple worth considering and it was something to discuss other than the usual 'Sign Cole, Wheeler, Grandal' rinse and repeats. 
Personally, I like the idea of kicking the tires on a deal with the Cubs involving Caratini, where the Angels help the Cubs out a bit from there financial bind, acquiring a SP and a C in the same deal, and only really losing an expendable prospect and essentially one year of Heaney.
 

Edited October 24, 2019 by totdprods

[Claude]

Drain the swamp.

[Jay]

not crazy at all.

 

[failos]

[UndertheHalo]

Great post man.  Thanks. 

[Dtwncbad]

OK. Or, keep Heaney and sign more pitchers to pitch in front of him in the rotation.

[totdprods]

Just now, Dtwncbad said:

OK. Or, keep Heaney and sign more pitchers to pitch in front of him in the rotation.

First paragraph. I even underlined and bolded it. 

[Second Base]

Great Post!

Sometimes, though, I think the off-season can get so long that we as fans end up overthinking things and forget simple truths.

The Angels need starting pitching, and likely won't trade away starting pitching.

[tdawg87]

With just 2 years of control left, I don't see Heaney being worth much of anything on the trade market. I think he holds more value to the Angels. We can hope against hope that he can stay healthy and give us 160 innings and he won't cost a ton. 

I think he's a better option currently for the back end of the rotation than anything else we have. 

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Great Post!

Sometimes, though, I think the off-season can get so long that we as fans end up overthinking things and forget simple truths.

The Angels need starting pitching, and likely won't trade away starting pitching.

Thanks - it’s absolutely overthinking, but I get really tired of reading the same thing created in five different threads a day, so I’ll throw shit like this together just to give myself something to respond to.

Also, most of these scenarios, the Angels are typically trading Heaney for starting pitching - a lateral move - but also capitalizing on his surplus value (control/cheap arb price tag) with teams that have specific circumstances in order to find another piece they need, usually catching.

I really like the Cubs deal the more I think about it. They’re desperately needing to shed some money and starting a proposal around Heaney for Quintana/Hendricks and Caratini felt like a frame that would help both teams. 

[Blarg]

I think, due to last season's tragic event, Heaney's value on the open market is impinged. To trade him now would appear to be offloading unwanted baggage. 

[totdprods]

Just now, Blarg said:

I think, due to last season's tragic event, Heaney's value on the open market is impinged. To trade him now would appear to be offloading unwanted baggage. 

I wondered that too, but didn’t really want to bring it up. 

[Dtwncbad]

17 minutes ago, totdprods said:

First paragraph. I even underlined and bolded it. 

Let me rephrase:

Just sign more pitchers to pitch in front of him in the rotation and leave Heaney alone.

[totdprods]

Just now, Dtwncbad said:

Let me rephrase:

Just sign more pitchers to pitch in front of him in the rotation and leave Heaney alone.

Even if it nets us another (or better) SP *and* a catcher/reliever? Because that was also the point. 

[Dtwncbad]

Just now, totdprods said:

Even if it nets us another (or better) SP *and* a catcher/reliever? Because that was also the point. 

You think trading Heaney will yield a BETTER starting pitcher AND a catcher?
So which GM out there is getting fired?

 

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

You think trading Heaney will yield a BETTER starting pitcher AND a catcher?
So which GM out there is getting fired?

I also made those parts bold.

[Angel Oracle]

2 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

You think trading Heaney will yield a BETTER starting pitcher AND a catcher?
So which GM out there is getting fired?

 

[Dtwncbad]

3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I also made those parts bold.

You caught me.  Guilty.  I didn’t read the novel in detail because the Angels have absolutely no business trading away a serviceable starter in his twenties under contract for two more years making very little money.

Even if the land Cole and Strasburg.

[tdawg87]

7 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I also made those parts bold.

Ehhh. Heaney and a "lotto ticket" prospect/player isn't getting us a better pitcher than Heaney AND a catcher. I know you're just trying to create discussion and that's fine but no GM is going to make that trade, even when accounting for money involved.

IMO, Heaney alone gets us a C level prospect or two. Maybe a solid MLB reliever.

Just keep him. He fills in the 4/5 spot nicely and cheaply.

[T.G.]

I just wish @totdprods would put more thought into his posts.  These willey-nilley, off the cuff, shoot from the hip posts don't really tell us what he's thinking.

Seriously... Dude, nice post.

I'd be curious to see what process you go through when buying a new car.  I'd love to see the reaction of a car salesmen when you start telling him what you want, expect, etc.

[Dtwncbad]

Just now, tdawg87 said:

Ehhh. Heaney and a "lotto ticket" prospect/player isn't getting us a better pitcher than Heaney AND a catcher. I know you're just trying to create discussion and that's fine but no GM is going to make that trade, even when accounting for money involved.

IMO, Heaney alone gets us a C level prospect or two. Maybe a solid MLB reliever.

Just keep him. He fills in the 4/5 spot nicely and cheaply.

If the Angels make the moves to make Heaney their #4 starter, you just keep him in that assignment.

Also think about a postseason where you only use 3 starters.  Having lefty Heaney as a strategic tool for critical games would be a nice little luxury. 

[ettin]

So first of all Tots, I appreciate the amount of thought you put into the post, because most of the time you see threads like this and you open them up and it is a one-liner of trade player(s)/prospect(s) X, Y, and Z for so and so superstar on another team and it is painful to read.

Before I have to rush off to my meeting here at work I'd like to offer some thoughts on why this would be a bad idea:

1) Heaney just completed a season where he had a 21.2% K%-BB% among starters with a minimum of 50 IP: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=50&type=1&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=9,d . That ranked 21st among 170 starters on that list.

2) He ran an incredibly good 11.14 K/9 rate with a pretty respectable 2.83 BB/9 rate. The former is elite level K/9 ability and it was all spoiled by an elevated HR/9 rate and a career high, Hard% rate.

3) He is relatively inexpensive at your aforementioned ~ $5M in 2020 and a likely projected ~$9M in 2021, making him a very worthwhile keeper at least for the upcoming season.

4) At least one of your scenarios involved sacrificing one of Thaiss/Rengifo/Ward. This makes Eppler's efforts to fill 3B that much greater in the off-season rather than running out Thaiss, Rengifo, and Ward in Spring Training to see who wins the job to start the season (or signing a free agent of which there is a serious short supply of good ones).

5) I'm not sure trading two years of control for one year of control of guys like Ray and Quintana are really worth it. Yes those two might provide better results for one year but you lose the extra year of control plus the ever-present upside that Heaney's 2019 numbers tantalize at. You may be right but you could easily be wrong too.

To me trading Heaney would be like shooting ourselves in the foot considering that pitching is our greatest need even if you have already signed two other starters per your opening statement. It just means we need to acquire two more starters if we move Andrew in my humble opinion.

Great post though! It is always fun to think these things out and discuss!

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, ettin said:

5) I'm not sure trading two years of control for one year of control of guys like Ray and Quintana are really worth it. Yes those two might provide better results for one year but you lose the extra year of control plus the ever-present upside that Heaney's 2019 numbers tantalize at. You may be right but you could easily be wrong too.

To me trading Heaney would be like shooting ourselves in the foot considering that pitching is our greatest need even if you have already signed two other starters per your opening statement. It just means we need to acquire two more starters if we move Andrew in my humble opinion.

Great post though! It is always fun to think these things out and discuss!

Howdy @ettin, thanks for offering up some real, actual discussion! 

I agree with your quote here 100% - ultimately, this only simmers up as a possibility in the event Eppler really is feeling the heat and that he has to produce a strong, contending team this year - and doesn't get much help from Arte or an extended payroll, while wanting to preserve his farm.  I like Heaney a lot and the improved K rate he's shown in recent years bodes really well. He could have a couple really nice seasons ahead of him, and were I GM, he'd be staying, without a doubt.  

But you and I also both know that things don't always match what's on paper or play out in a vacuum, which is why I threw something like this together.

[Angel Oracle]

If only Heaney could come up with an additional pitch.

[zenmaster]

IMO we'd be lucky to get a middling AA prospect for him.