When does Gerrit Cole sign?

[Taylor]

In other words, how strong will the Scott Bora$$ factor be?

[Claude]

I think December. Cole will probably relax and enjoy Thanksgiving with his family before deciding. Hopefully he has a nice World Series and can take a breather. Dude is a warrior. 

[Troll Daddy]

History tells us March ... but, it’s up to Cole not his agent 

[kevinb]

I say January let all the bidding take place then make a decision. 

[Docwaukee]

I think he will sign sooner than most expect.  I am thinking December sometime around the winter meetings or shortly thereafter.  

[m0nkey]

I also say December, around the same time teixeira signed. 

[Stradling]

Yep, Winter Meetings. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

Would be funny if he did in november because hes a big black friday shopper and needs the money.

[Pancake Bear]

Guys sign late when they aren’t getting the offers they expect. Boras tends to overvalue his clients. Machado and Harper signed late because their market was slower than expected. Corbin signed earlier. I think Cole’s market value is pretty well set. I’m dubious that Boras asks for 8 years 35m aav, but I could be wrong. I think he signs at latest in early January. Most likely in December. I think the Winter Meetings is possible, but could also be a bit after that. 

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Would be funny if he did in november because hes a big black friday shopper and needs the money.

ranger Dan and his big dog dick.  

[Tank]

He’s going to get things done in November. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, Sean-Regan said:

I think Cole’s market value is pretty well set.

Why do you think that?

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Tank said:

He’s going to get things done in November. 

I read this and picture a quick video of him throwing out old clothes, cleaning his garage, and finally getting that back tooth fixed. Maybe a shot of him selling that bowflex machine he doesn't use for way less than he wanted to.

Edited October 21, 2019 by ten ocho recon scout

[Pancake Bear]

24 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Why do you think that?

Just comparisons to last offseason. Corbin signed relatively early for 6/140. That’s obviously quite a bit less than what Cole will get. Cole is the same age but has a much better track record than Corbin. I can’t see him getting much more than the record (and I doubt that’s a sure thing) - 7y, 210. The market seems to have run off a bit.

I would imagine Boras looks for 7 years, 245m as a starter (although, it being Boras, who knows). Teams may want to counter with 6 years, but it seems clear to me it’ll take 7 to get the deal done. I suppose Boras may push for 8, but that seems unlikely to me. I don’t think Cole’s track record is quite at that level that anyone would want to go 8. 7 years is risky enough. 

180m seems like the floor. I can’t see anyone offering less as a serious offer. Obviously that’s a wide gap between 180 and 245, but my prediction was 7/224. Maybe I’m high, or maybe I’m low. I don’t have all the info. But I don’t feel like there’s a much variance in how Cole is valued as there was with Harper and Machado. I could easily be wrong. You’re more in the know than I am. 

[Docwaukee]

20 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

Just comparisons to last offseason. Corbin signed relatively early for 6/140. That’s obviously quite a bit less than what Cole will get. Cole is the same age but has a much better track record than Corbin. I can’t see him getting much more than the record (and I doubt that’s a sure thing) - 7y, 210. The market seems to have run off a bit.

I would imagine Boras looks for 7 years, 245m as a starter (although, it being Boras, who knows). Teams may want to counter with 6 years, but it seems clear to me it’ll take 7 to get the deal done. I suppose Boras may push for 8, but that seems unlikely to me. I don’t think Cole’s track record is quite at that level that anyone would want to go 8. 7 years is risky enough. 

180m seems like the floor. I can’t see anyone offering less as a serious offer. Obviously that’s a wide gap between 180 and 245, but my prediction was 7/224. Maybe I’m high, or maybe I’m low. I don’t have all the info. But I don’t feel like there’s a much variance in how Cole is valued as there was with Harper and Machado. I could easily be wrong. You’re more in the know than I am. 

I think the Nats and their original offer to Harper played a major factor in slowing his market and therefore Machado's as well because they seemed coupled  to some degree.  I also think that since both of them were available at the same time, they were both kinda waiting to see what the other would do and I think a lot of the same teams were looking at both as options.  The other factor was a team like the Dodgers who were willing to go higher AAV but fewer years.  At the end of the day, It's more than likely the total number and not the AAV that determines where the player ends up.  

I also think that every team knows exactly how much they think every free agent is worth at this point.  They know their own needs and budget so they have a very good idea of where they're willing to go with any one player.  

Cole is by far the premier pitcher on the market with no peer in that regard and there is already a basic template in Scherzer and Price for the parameters of a contract.  Even though I think his market will move more quickly because of geography and the other factors mentioned, Cole might sway more toward a boras type negotiation than his preference for geography would indicate.  Guys who truly value location tend to sign more quickly than others.  

Corbin wanted the east coast and got the deal he wanted pretty quick.  He got the extra year from the Nats (presumably) which the Yanks weren't willing to offer.  

It all depends on how much shopping of offers Cole lets Boras do.  My guess is that the halos come in at 6/180 with a willingness to go to 7 years at a similar AAV if need be.  Once they get there, they'll stop and if someone wants to go higher, they'll let them.  But let's be honest, Boras is coming out of the gate looking for 9 and over 300.  The Dogs are gonna mess with Boras on Cole a bit and offer him 5/200 or something like that.  That'll slow things down a little but he'll end up taking the 7/220 or so from the halos in late December.  Merry Xmas!!!  

The nats initial offer to Rendon is gonna make his market slow to a crawl unless he takes it btw.  Otherwise, it'll be late jan or early feb till he signs.  CWS or Atlanta if not the nats.  Rangers as a dark horse.  I see both ATL and CWS being spenders this off season.  

[tdawg87]

November 5, 1955

[halomatt]

33 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

November 5, 1955

[T.G.]

[Jeff Fletcher]

7 hours ago, Sean-Regan said:

Just comparisons to last offseason. Corbin signed relatively early for 6/140. That’s obviously quite a bit less than what Cole will get. Cole is the same age but has a much better track record than Corbin. I can’t see him getting much more than the record (and I doubt that’s a sure thing) - 7y, 210. The market seems to have run off a bit.

I would imagine Boras looks for 7 years, 245m as a starter (although, it being Boras, who knows). Teams may want to counter with 6 years, but it seems clear to me it’ll take 7 to get the deal done. I suppose Boras may push for 8, but that seems unlikely to me. I don’t think Cole’s track record is quite at that level that anyone would want to go 8. 7 years is risky enough. 

180m seems like the floor. I can’t see anyone offering less as a serious offer. Obviously that’s a wide gap between 180 and 245, but my prediction was 7/224. Maybe I’m high, or maybe I’m low. I don’t have all the info. But I don’t feel like there’s a much variance in how Cole is valued as there was with Harper and Machado. I could easily be wrong. You’re more in the know than I am. 

That all sounds great. But I don't think we have any idea. We all think we know what Cole should want, but we could have said the same thing about Harper and Machado.

The bottom line is Cole's value will be determined the exact same way as every other free agent: a combination of what he thinks he's worth and what the other teams think he's worth and how eager the two sides are to move toward the other to get a deal done. 

 

[NorCal Halo]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

how eager the two sides are to move toward the other to get a deal done. 

 

[Second Base]

Just my guess....

- November is where Boras will allow other teams to make their initial estimates on Cole's value.

- The winter meetings in December is where Boras will begin negotiations, which typically consist of him floating a ridiculously high number that scares away pretenders and narrows it down to just a few contenders.

- He'll use the rest of December and part of January to make teams feel the pressure, and get more and more uncomfortable, which will cause them to continue to negotiate and raise their initial offers. This period of time also allows for "mystery teams" to get involved. If no mystery team does get involved, Boras will make sure he floats this rumor to the media and give fans something to talk about. MLB doesn't mind it because drama adds more interest to their brand.

- Right around mid or late January, Cole will agree to terms with a team, typically for a number that falls squarely in the middle range between a team's initial offer and Boras' asking price. 

- The process itself takes 10+ weeks, but really, it's a waste of time because the number signed for, is typically what's expected back in November. Meaning there's no reason for that specific player not to sign in December at the Winter Meetings, except that the agent and player are vain and just love to dominate headlines for weeks at a time because it makes them feel important and strokes their ego....

------

And here's an additional estimate, I think Boras' tactics, which were effective up to three years ago will leave yet another one of his clients taking a lesser offer in the same manner he has the past few off-seasons.

He'll have about 10 teams interested in late November, 6 of which will make a strong offer. Once the Winter Meetings come, he'll float the asking price and this will narrow it down to four teams, just my guess, the Angels, Twins, Yankees and Dodgers.

The market won't be moving fast enough for the Angels and they'll drop out. The Dodgers will also back out and go in a different, more cost effective direction. Then the Twins will drop out for the same reasons as the Angels, a need for multiple starters and the inability to afford to allow the market to leave them behind and risk losing their chance at the postseason.

It'll be down to the Yankees and Boras. The rest of it will be a bunch of posturing by a premadonna agent and a premadonna organization. The difference here will be that come the second week of January, the Yankees will know it's just them and won't up their offer. Boras will kick and scream and pout and invent mystery teams but none of it will work and Cole will sign for the same amount he could've signed for back in November, which will only be about 70% of the asking price.

But then it'll last be ok because news stories will come out explaining that Cole gets to sign with the team he team he rooted for as a kid and that he always knew he wanted to sign with them. Such a feel good story.

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

Just my guess....

Quite a lot of detail for a guess. 

[Lou]

[TheUPSman]

I'm going with January. Figure Cole will take some time with family and enjoy the holidays. 

[Mark68]

December 7, 2019, a date that will live in infamy...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

...for Astros fans.