FanGraphs: Mike Trout and the Others Once Again Fail to Make the Playoffs

[ettin]

Discussion of the Angels season and future plus a really nice Jo Adell ZiPS projection at the end: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mike-trout-and-the-others-once-again-fail-to-make-the-playoffs/

 

Forgive me if this is a Craig.

[Taylor]

BREAKING: The Angels and Mike Trout fail to make the playoffs.

[tdawg87]

Imagine if Arte literally says "F*ck it" and signs Cole AND Rendon. With backloaded contracts it's not entirely out of the question, but we have to assume a big increase in payroll.

This is going to be a hell of an off-season.

[Claude]

10 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Imagine if Arte literally says "F*ck it" and signs Cole AND Rendon. With backloaded contracts it's not entirely out of the question, but we have to assume a big increase in payroll.

This is going to be a hell of an off-season.

Or Arte stays away from all of the high dollar free agents but continues to push for mid-tier type guys but keeps his 4 tickets, 4 hot dogs and 4 soft drinks for $44 in play. 

 

Edited October 10, 2019 by Calzone 2

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, Calzone 2 said:

Or Arte stays away from all of the high dollar free agents but continues to push for mid-tier type guys but keeps his 4 tickets, 4 hot dogs and 4 soft drinks for $44 in play. 

 

Nope. Not going to happen. 

Arte will sign Cole or Strasburg this off-season. 

[Claude]

Just now, tdawg87 said:

Nope. Not going to happen. 

Arte will sign Cole or Strasburg this off-season. 

But what about the hot dogs? 

[tdawg87]

10 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

But what about the hot dogs? 

Shove them directly up your butt.

[Claude]

1 minute ago, tdawg87 said:

Shove them directly up your butt.

All 4?

[Taylor]

31 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Imagine if Arte literally says "F*ck it" and signs Cole AND Rendon. With backloaded contracts it's not entirely out of the question, but we have to assume a big increase in payroll.

This is going to be a hell of an off-season.

Claude would then complain incessantly about how Arte is a frivolous spender who's going to bankrupt the team.

[tdawg87]

So like, let's assume Cole and Rendon each get $30 million a year. 

Those contracts could be backloaded so they each are making $20 million in 2020. That's $40 million in payroll added, which brings the total payroll to roughly $180 million.

It could happen. But unfortunately we'd still need another pitcher and a catcher. Grandal and Wheeler would bring the payroll well past $200 million which I don't see happening. So maybe Eppler trades for a catcher or, F*ck it, signs Maldonado then trades for Anibal Sanchez. The payroll is then at about $190 million. A big increase for sure, but not entirely out of the question.

[Hubs]

Don’t understand the Maldonado love. He’s terrible with the bat and his defense has slipped. 

[Blarg]

15 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

So like, let's assume Cole and Rendon each get $30 million a year. 

I really see no reason for Rendon if the Angels can't cover five rotation spots with quality arms. Losing 5 to 7 isn't really moving the needle forward to success. 

If you see just how much Adell and Marsh are kicking ass in the AFL you'd realize Rendon will never be worth the contract and just clog up the lineup and keep some really good young studs from getting playing time.

Those studs are not part of the minor league roster pitching staff. We don't have a Strassberg in the minors, shit, we have hardly have anything resembling a 180 inning arm that can hold down a game against the Orioles. So there is where this off seasons money needs to go. Two, well above league average starting pitchers to cover 3 to 5 years while the minor leagues produce something. Anything.

Got some spare change leftover? Buy a catcher that can block a pitch in front of the plate and can hit his weight. 

[Blarg]

Then, just maybe, Mike Trout will be in the playoffs next year.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

58 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Imagine if Arte literally says "F*ck it" and signs Cole AND Rendon. With backloaded contracts it's not entirely out of the question, but we have to assume a big increase in payroll.

This is going to be a hell of an off-season.

I'm OK with our IF the way it is, instead of spending big bucks on Rendon, sign another quality pitcher, and possibly Grandal. That is what this team could really use next season, IMO.

[tdawg87]

3 minutes ago, Blarg said:

I really see no reason for Rendon if the Angels can't cover five rotation spots with quality arms. Losing 5 to 7 isn't really moving the needle forward to success. 

If you see just how much Adell and Marsh are kicking ass in the AFL you'd realize Rendon will never be worth the contract and just clog up the lineup and keep some really good young studs from getting playing time.

Those studs are not part of the minor league roster pitching staff. We don't have a Strassberg in the minors, shit, we have hardly have anything resembling a 180 inning arm that can hold down a game against the Orioles. So there is where this off seasons money needs to go. Two, well above league average starting pitchers to cover 3 to 5 years while the minor leagues produce something. Anything.

Got some spare change leftover? Buy a catcher that can block a pitch in front of the plate and can hit his weight. 

How would Rendon block Adell or Marsh? At worst, Rendon blocks Thaiss.

Also, Rendon and Cole wouldn't be the off-season. Rendon and Cole, and then another pitcher, and a cheap catcher would be the off-season.

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

I'm OK with our IF the way it is, instead of spending big bucks on Rendon, sign another quality pitcher, and possibly Grandal. That is what this team could really use next season, IMO.

That's my most realistic off-season. Cole, Odorizzi, and Grandal. Lots of payroll added but not completely out of the question.

Rendon is just a dream scenario.

[tdawg87]

17 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Don’t understand the Maldonado love. He’s terrible with the bat and his defense has slipped. 

No one loves him. No one.

But he'll be cheap.

[Docwaukee]

The article isn't much different than what we've been talking about pretty much across the board but it's a bit of a punch in the gut to see it all compiled into one comprehensive article.  

We don't need any reminders that the team lost 90 games this year but it's a good reminder of why they projected us to only have 81 wins in the first place and how the current roster probably lives in the mid to high 70's at best as currently constructed.  

It also makes mention of the improved yet still fairly 'pedestrian' farm system while even giving some props to Adell, Marsh and Canning (even though he's not a prospect anymore).  

They call for the team to go out and find 15 wins from somewhere that would put them in the 90-95 range.  Which is basically similar to the proposal recently made in another thread by AJ (although he went looking for 20 wins).  

That's a tall task even though I think it can be done.  However, even though I think we'll see some improvement from some of the young pitchers along with Rengifo and perhaps some mid season call ups from Adell and Marsh as well as maybe maybe some improvement and contribution from guys like Thaiss, Ward, Walsh and Herm, That's not a list of potential future stars or super stars outside of Adell and maybe Marsh who are unlikely to realize that potential next year and probably for at least a couple more years.  

It's important to know that after the above crew, Jones is really the only 'decent' prospect we have at A+ or higher unless Adams suddenly gets on the fast track or Chris Rodriguez can get healthy.  The rest of the talent is below that level and hence the reason for the middle of the pack ranking.  

My point is that this franchise is still in transition from the previous mess and the idea that the farm system is suddenly going to infuse a bunch of productive major league talent isn't something we should really expect.  Can this team get better and be a WC contender with the right FA pickups?  Sure.  I definitely think there are 15 wins worth of talent out there if they're willing to pay for it.  If you trade from the low minors to try and make it happen though, it could substantially shorten whatever window you are trying to open.  My opinion is that they need to pay to open that window and not trade to do it for now.  That's not always a great strategy but at this point I think it's the best option.  Partially because the farm not only isn't ready to make major impact on the major league club but also isn't ready to sustain a substantial trade.  But also because this years free agent class lines up very well with our needs.  Bear in mind that even though Cole is going to be expensive and is entering his age 30 season, there's a good chance he's still the best pitcher in this org 4 years from now.  He's that good and also this system lacks the high end arms on top of that.  I personally feel similarly to Grandal even though he's on the wrong side of thirty and catcher production in that realm isn't typically as sustainable when you get around his age.  The last piece is that 2nd pitcher.   For me, it's still Wheeler.  There might be 15 wins between those 3 but it's probably closer to 12.  

So we're still likely looking at needing some other good things to happen.  Not unreasonable things though like better Simmons, Upton, Ohtani at the plate and on the mound, Heaney, Rengifo.  We don't need all of those things to happen but we're still in the same mode as we were last year where we've got a shot but it's most likely a shot at a WC.  

I wouldn't hoped for a shorter timeline but after seeing the way things were in hindsight, it was actually worse than I thought.  So where we are now makes sense even though it's not ideal.  

[Docwaukee]

33 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

So like, let's assume Cole and Rendon each get $30 million a year. 

Those contracts could be backloaded so they each are making $20 million in 2020. That's $40 million in payroll added, which brings the total payroll to roughly $180 million.

It could happen. But unfortunately we'd still need another pitcher and a catcher. Grandal and Wheeler would bring the payroll well past $200 million which I don't see happening. So maybe Eppler trades for a catcher or, F*ck it, signs Maldonado then trades for Anibal Sanchez. The payroll is then at about $190 million. A big increase for sure, but not entirely out of the question.

I'm all for Sanchez, but why is Washington trading him?  

and FTR I do think this team could be close to 190m to start the year.  

[Claude]

45 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Claude would then complain incessantly about how Arte is a frivolous spender who's going to bankrupt the team.

I’m all for spending but if you’re paying for a new expensive paint on your car again while continuing to ignore the leaking engine and slipping transmission you’re wasting your resources. We have some parts that need to be replaced. Clean out the trunk please.

[tdawg87]

Just now, Dochalo said:

I'm all for Sanchez, but why is Washington trading him?  

and FTR I do think this team could be close to 190m to start the year.  

Honestly the only reason I see them trading Sanchez is to get legit bullpen help (think Robles). Also his option year sucks balls. They pay him 6 million to walk, or 18 million to stay. Yikes.

I could see them trading Sanchez and signing Wheeler.

[Warfarin]

16 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

I'm OK with our IF the way it is, instead of spending big bucks on Rendon, sign another quality pitcher, and possibly Grandal. That is what this team could really use next season, IMO.

Yeah, I think a lot of us are in this camp.  I’d sign Cole, Wheeler, and Grandal.  Assuming we have roughly 50mil of payroll, pay Cole roughly 25mil in year one, Wheeler roughly 13mil, and Grandal roughly 12mil.

A Cole, Wheeler, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning rotation looks pretty good on paper to me, and Grandal would be a gigantic upgrade for us at catcher.

Also, Adell will take over RF by midseason (if not earlier), and Marsh could even see playing time by season’s end.

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

I’m all for spending but if you’re paying for a new expensive paint on your car again while continuing to ignore the leaking engine and slipping transmission you’re wasting your resources. We have some parts that need to be replaced. Clean out the trunk please.

I like that you don't directly mention who the "leaking engine" is. It's pretty good trolling. 8/10.

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I like that you don't directly mention who the "leaking engine" is. It's pretty good trolling. 8/10.

No, not really.  Not to mention it doesn’t really matter since the money is spent and there will be a 26th roster spot.

[Docwaukee]

Rendon makes a couple other people expendable.  

the other thing that Rendon and Cole do if both are signed is essentially eat your entire budget for any additional free agent for at least 3 and possibly 4 years.