Predict Cole contract

[Docwaukee]

25 minutes ago, ettin said:

 

That's what you think nerd! https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/14/world/russia-scientists-reverse-time-scli-scn-intl/index.html

um.  I'm the nerd?

[ettin]

7 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

um.  I'm the nerd?

I didn't say I wasn't right?

[Angelsjunky]

Nerds are what jocks call people who read books.

Jocks are what nerds call people who get laid.

 

[Lou]

3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

um.  I'm the nerd?

so-called nerd 

[Taylor]

"Predict Cole contract"

 

[tdawg87]

On 10/16/2019 at 6:05 PM, Dochalo said:

teams don't approach the FA market with emotion hardly at all anymore.  That's why Boras has been so pissed.  He can't go to the owner anymore and make his heartfelt pitches about franchise players and butts in the seats.  Regardless of guys getting propped up in the media or FA momentum, or what players tweet, guys are getting offers at a level more commensurate with what teams think they're going to do and not what they've done.  People were throwing around crazy stupid numbers for Harper, Machado, Trout etc. yet the deals all settled in around where you'd expect or lower.  All three of those guys were also considerably younger and if you throw out Trout because he wasn't really a FA, Machado and Harper were entering their age 26 season where Cole is entering his age 29 season.  

There is also sort of an artificial market cap for pitchers because of greater injury risk.  

I just find it very unlikely that some sort of crazy bidding war for Cole would develop when that really hasn't been the case in the market for anyone over the last couple years.  

Once the playoff buzz dies down and the awards are handed out we will see a typical analytical approach to Cole just like with everyone else.  For those reasons, I just don't see his AAV getting much above 30m and his total number of years above 7.  I would be very surprised if someone goes 8 years on him taking the contract through age 36.  

I still think he winds up at 7/217 or so. 

Tbf most of the "Harper will get 12/500 and Machado will get 10/400" talk came from ettin, who, as you know, is a dumbass.

[Jeff Fletcher]

On 10/16/2019 at 3:05 PM, Dochalo said:

teams don't approach the FA market with emotion hardly at all anymore.  That's why Boras has been so pissed.  He can't go to the owner anymore and make his heartfelt pitches about franchise players and butts in the seats.  Regardless of guys getting propped up in the media or FA momentum, or what players tweet, guys are getting offers at a level more commensurate with what teams think they're going to do and not what they've done.  People were throwing around crazy stupid numbers for Harper, Machado, Trout etc. yet the deals all settled in around where you'd expect or lower.  All three of those guys were also considerably younger and if you throw out Trout because he wasn't really a FA, Machado and Harper were entering their age 26 season where Cole is entering his age 29 season.  

There is also sort of an artificial market cap for pitchers because of greater injury risk.  

I just find it very unlikely that some sort of crazy bidding war for Cole would develop when that really hasn't been the case in the market for anyone over the last couple years.  

Once the playoff buzz dies down and the awards are handed out we will see a typical analytical approach to Cole just like with everyone else.  For those reasons, I just don't see his AAV getting much above 30m and his total number of years above 7.  I would be very surprised if someone goes 8 years on him taking the contract through age 36.  

I still think he winds up at 7/217 or so. 

This is a great post.

 

[Docwaukee]

25 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

This is a great post.

 

[ettin]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Tbf most of the "Harper will get 12/500 and Machado will get 10/400" talk came from ettin, who, as you know, is a dumbass.

Hahahahahahaha, I am dying right now!!!! 

[Troll Daddy]

Gerrit Cole will shatter David Price’s record as the highest paid pitcher in baseball ️ history.

Book it!

I just hope ‘the devil’ doesn’t drag out negotiations until March. We all know the Yankees aren’t afraid to over pay. It might comedown to the Angels and Yankees bidding war. 

[Pancake Bear]

10 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Gerrit Cole will shatter David Price’s record as the highest paid pitcher in baseball ️ history.

Book it!

I just hope the ‘the devil’ doesn’t drag out negotiations until March. We all know the Yankees aren’t afraid to over pay. It might comedown to the Angels and Yankees bidding war. 

No. 

[Claude]

1 hour ago, Troll Daddy said:

Gerrit Cole will shatter David Price’s record as the highest paid pitcher in baseball ️ history.

Book it!

I just hope ‘the devil’ doesn’t drag out negotiations until March. We all know the Yankees aren’t afraid to over pay. It might comedown to the Angels and Yankees bidding war. 

The Yankees won’t be involved unless the Red Sox get involved. Cole has been nothing short of brilliant the last couple of seasons. He’s going to cash in big but it won’t be driven by the Yankees. They’ll inquire but they won’t make a written offer. Cole has also been the beneficiary of great run support (6th best in baseball for starting pitchers) which makes his job a lot less stressful. 

[Troll Daddy]

34 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

The Yankees won’t be involved unless the Red Sox get involved. Cole has been nothing short of brilliant the last couple of seasons. He’s going to cash in big but it won’t be driven by the Yankees. They’ll inquire but they won’t make a written offer. Cole has also been the beneficiary of great run support (6th best in baseball for starting pitchers) which makes his job a lot less stressful. 

I never count out the Yankees for some reason ... maybe you’re right 

[Troll Daddy]

What’s the chances of the Astros trading Greinke 

[Claude]

1 minute ago, Troll Daddy said:

I never count out the Yankees for some reason ... maybe you’re right 

My thinking is that the Yankees just don’t need him. They a lot of have pitching if everyone is healthy. I posted in another thread that they get the benefit of some other team (besides Boston) taking Cole away from Houston. 

[Blarg]

38 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

The Yankees won’t be involved unless the Red Sox get involved.

The Yankees just retired Sabathia and Tanaka only has one year remaining on his contract. The Yankees most certainly will be involved. 

[Claude]

3 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

What’s the chances of the Astros trading Greinke 

He’s not as good as Cole or Verlander but he’s well paid so tough to move without eating salary. Houston is not in a position to eat salary. 

[Troll Daddy]

1 minute ago, Calzone 2 said:

He’s not as good as Cole or Verlander but he’s well paid so tough to move without eating salary. Houston is not in a position to eat salary. 

They may not have to eat salary ... if they pay with prospects 

[Claude]

11 minutes ago, Blarg said:

The Yankees just retired Sabathia and Tanaka only has one year remaining on his contract. The Yankees most certainly will be involved. 

I honestly don’t think they will be in the price range. The Steinbrenner sons aren’t like George. They got absolutely facked on the Stanton trade. That trade will keep them on a improve by trade (they have plenty of trading pieces) and a develop the youth track. They won 103 games without Cole and they had 30 players on the IR this season. 

Edited October 21, 2019 by Calzone 2

[Claude]

1 minute ago, Troll Daddy said:

They may not have to eat salary ... if they pay with prospects 

Greinke has that crazy no trade list of teams that makes him tough to move. He must be an oddball teammate because he’s played for some very good organizations but keeps getting moved. 

[Troll Daddy]

7 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

Greinke has that crazy no trade list of teams that makes him tough to move. He must be an oddball teammate because he’s played for some very good organizations but keeps getting moved. 

He has a limited no trade clause and the Astros received $24M from the Diamondbacks. So it’s indeed a consideration for the Astros. 

[Pancake Bear]

31 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

What’s the chances of the Astros trading Greinke 

Dude, get over it. Just because you would spend Monopoly money and wheel and deal like MLB The Show, it doesn’t work that way.

 

[Claude]

17 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

He has a limited no trade clause and the Astros received $24M from the Diamondbacks. So it’s indeed a consideration for the Astros. 

Well sure anything can happen but he most likely would have to approve any trade to a team ( I think there’s like 16 teams on his no trade list) that can afford him. Not many out there. I also think Doc was correct that the Astros would have to go way over the luxury tax to re-sign Cole. They may as well keep Greinke  while they have a great team if Cole really has his heart on the west coast. 

Edited October 21, 2019 by Calzone 2

[Stradling]

I don’t think a team is going to trade for a 36 year old starter at 2 years and $50 million.  Why would a team trade for him when they could sign Ryu, Bumgarner for less, that are younger, less expensive and you don’t have to deal with the no trade nonsense. If the Astros want to unload that entire contract they might have to add a young player, which would be silly because they are going to need young affordable players to fill out the roster because of how expensive Verlander, Bregman, Altuve, Springers extension, Correa’s extension and either Cole or Greinke depending on if a trade like this we’re to happen. 

[Stradling]

• limited no-trade protection: may block trades to 15 clubs (Baltimore, Boston, Cincinnati, Colorado, Detroit, LA Angels, LA Dodgers, Minnesota, NY Yankees, Oakland, Philadelphia, San Diego, San Francisco, St. Louis, Toronto as of 11/18)