Predict Cole contract

[Pancake Bear]

1 minute ago, mulwin444 said:

No, I never said I'm "convinced" they are good, you just assumed that bit yourself...I know you like to wade into the deep end of Lake Hyperbole but I don't operate in extremes.

Could they be good?  Sure, they have the pieces in place to complete if everyone is healthy.  They could also be bad again.  I can entertain both conflicting thoughts in my head at the same time.

Question, for the record: do you think Cole signs with the Angels?

No. Like Trout, he wants to win, so, like Trout, he’ll sign elsewhere. Because, like Trout, he knows the Angels will never win this century. 

[mulwin444]

1 minute ago, Sean-Regan said:

No. Like Trout, he wants to win, so, like Trout, he’ll sign elsewhere. Because, like Trout, he knows the Angels will never win this century. 

Trout just wanted to get his contract locked in before he demands to be traded to a contender

[Lou]

2 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

Trout just wanted to get his contract locked in before he demands to be traded to a contender

Devious!

[T.G.]

 

the price of poker just went up...

[Docwaukee]

personally, I think he signs with the Halos.  

The dogs will offer something like 5/190 and the Angels will be at 7/220.  

I really do think being out west is a priority for him 

[Angelsjunky]

17 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I feel like we went through a similar exercise prior to the 2019 off season with Trout ending up at 35.5m aav, Harper at 27.5m aav, and Machado at 32m aav.  

I still feel like the market has changed in terms of long term contracts and especially for pitchers.  The high payroll teams have been generally reluctant to go beyond a certain point in terms of years even though they seem fine with higher AAVs.  

I still think he ends up at 7 years and a shade more than Price.  But I don't think he gets 35m per.  

 

Possibly. I could see 7/231, but nothing lower. The only thing that might keep his contract that "low" is Strasburg entering the market. Cole is solidly better, but the availability of Strasburg gives teams a viable second choice.

15 minutes ago, ettin said:

 

Nice to see you coming around AJ !!!!

Ha. Sorry, didn't see yours. I've only changed from 8/248 to 7/245, so don't take too much credit.

[Claude]

14 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

No, I never said I'm "convinced" they are good, you just assumed that bit yourself...I know you like to wade into the deep end of Lake Hyperbole but I don't operate in extremes.

Could they be good?  Sure, they have the pieces in place to complete if everyone is healthy.  They could also be bad again.  I can entertain both conflicting thoughts in my head at the same time.

Question, for the record: do you think Cole signs with the Angels?

Yes I think Cole will sign with the Angels. 

[mulwin444]

1 minute ago, Calzone 2 said:

Yes I think Cole will sign with the Angels. 

Yeah, me too, for two reasons: 1. Cole wants to 2.  Angels can afford him

[Angelsjunky]

2 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

Yeah, me too, for two reasons: 1. Cole wants to 2.  Angels can afford him

And 3. no team needs Cole as much as the Angels do, which is why he'll be the richest pitcher in baseball history.

[mulwin444]

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

And 3. no team needs Cole as much as the Angels do, which is why he'll be the richest pitcher in baseball history.

The "richest pitcher in baseball history" is certainly a "perfect storm" of the pitcher performing at the top of his game at the right time and showcase plus a team desperate for an ace with monetary means with which to sign him long term.     

[T.G.]

 

Cha-Ching..

[Angelsjunky]

1 minute ago, mulwin444 said:

The "richest pitcher in baseball history" is certainly a "perfect storm" of the pitcher performing at the top of his game at the right time and showcase plus a team desperate for an ace with monetary means with which to sign him long term.     

Yep. Cole is in a nice position to cash in.

[Docwaukee]

Just now, Angelsjunky said:

And 3. no team needs Cole as much as the Angels do, which is why he'll be the richest pitcher in baseball history.

I still go back to 2018 when the Angels had Ohtani and Richards at the top of the rotation for the first 50-60 games or so.  Heaney and Skaggs were also pitching well and we were like 10 games over .500.  The current offense and bullpen are actually better than that team.  Cole, 2018 Ohtani with more innings, 2018 Heaney and a solid replacement for Skaggs.  Plus now you have Canning and I really think we'l see better from Barria, Sandoval and Suarez.  It's gonna be such a dramatic difference.  

The rotation from 2019 had an era of 6.  F**CKING 6!!!!! It's hard to fathom how bad that it, but it's also hard to fathom how much of a difference 3 players can make to that.  

[Pancake Bear]

3 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I still go back to 2018 when the Angels had Ohtani and Richards at the top of the rotation for the first 50-60 games or so.  Heaney and Skaggs were also pitching well and we were like 10 games over .500.  The current offense and bullpen are actually better than that team.  Cole, 2018 Ohtani with more innings, 2018 Heaney and a solid replacement for Skaggs.  Plus now you have Canning and I really think we'l see better from Barria, Sandoval and Suarez.  It's gonna be such a dramatic difference.  

The rotation from 2019 had an era of 6.  F**CKING 6!!!!! It's hard to fathom how bad that it, but it's also hard to fathom how much of a difference 3 players can make to that.  

Less stress on the pen. Less pressure on the offense and defense. Makes a gigantic difference across the board, just bringing in 2-3 good-great arms (including Ohtani).

[Dtwncbad]

2 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

Less stress on the pen. Less pressure on the offense and defense. Makes a gigantic difference across the board, just bringing in 2-3 good-great arms (including Ohtani).

So Cole won’t sign with the Angels because he wants to win, but 2-3 good arms will because, what, they don’t care about winning?

Just trying to help you keep the logic straight.

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

So Cole won’t sign with the Angels because he wants to win, but 2-3 good arms will because, what, they don’t care about winning?

Just trying to help you keep the logic straight.

I'm not sure that's what he was saying, but it is kinda funny that there is this perception that the better a player is and the bigger the contract he's gonna get that he somehow cares more about winning than a guy getting a 1 or 2 year deal who just takes what he can get.  Granted, the better players are going to have more options.  

looking back at the last few years, which contracts can we definitively say that a player took out of the sheer desire to win and win only?

Plus, outside of a couple of teams, it's pretty hard to predict a team that's guaranteed to win.  Who'd have thought that Washington would be where they're at right now or that the Twins would win 100+ games.  I wouldn't have picked the Cards to win the central or the Rays to win a WC spot by 12 games over boston.  The Dbacks were better than I thought they'd be.  The Phils and Cubs were worse.  So on and so forth.  

A player can be convinced that their presence plus a couple other moves could turn a team around in a heart beat.  

As an example, what if the White Sox decided to add Cole, Wheeler and Odorizzi to a rotation of Giolito, Cease and Lopez.  Plus what if they decided to add a couple of solid bats to their OF or went and got Rendon to play 3b and moved Moncada to 2b?  Their payroll is literally a few mil over league min guys right now and that would suddenly be like 20 wins added to a 72 win team.  

I wouldn't assume that every player think they have to go to the Yanks, Dogs or Astros to win now.  

[Pancake Bear]

47 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

So Cole won’t sign with the Angels because he wants to win, but 2-3 good arms will because, what, they don’t care about winning?

Just trying to help you keep the logic straight.

Pretty hard to keep logic straight when you didn’t even read the post correctly. At all. My comment had nothing at all do with whether Cole will sign here. 

[ettin]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Possibly. I could see 7/231, but nothing lower. The only thing that might keep his contract that "low" is Strasburg entering the market. Cole is solidly better, but the availability of Strasburg gives teams a viable second choice.

Ha. Sorry, didn't see yours. I've only changed from 8/248 to 7/245, so don't take too much credit.

Was just teasing.... I think it could go to 8 years possible too if the Angels want to bring the AAV down a touch. Doubt that though, seven years seems like the right length.

[tdawg87]

I actually think the years are (and will be) the sticking point for Arte, not so much the total figure. 

I don't doubt Arte is willing to pay Cole $35 million or hell even $40 million a year (he won't get that, I'm just using it as an example). But doing so over 7-8 years is definitely an issue.

I could see an initial offer of 5 or 6 years with a higher AAV. Eventually he'll probably have to do 7 but if it goes more than that we're moving on to Strasburg.

[Mark68]

2 hours ago, True Grich said:

 

the price of poker just went up...

All in.

[Pancake Bear]

51 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I actually think the years are (and will be) the sticking point for Arte, not so much the total figure. 

I don't doubt Arte is willing to pay Cole $35 million or hell even $40 million a year (he won't get that, I'm just using it as an example). But doing so over 7-8 years is definitely an issue.

I could see an initial offer of 5 or 6 years with a higher AAV. Eventually he'll probably have to do 7 but if it goes more than that we're moving on to Strasburg.

If he won’t, he’s never getting an ace. Strasburg isn’t signing for 5 years. 

[Mark68]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/al-notes-cole-edwin.html

 

"In less than three hours, Astros ace Gerrit Cole will take the field at Yankee Stadium in the hopes of securing his team a 2-1 lead over New York in the ALCS. Judging from quotes made to Scott Miller of Bleacher Report, his teammates are likely to be feeling mighty confident when Cole toes the rubber. “When you have Gerrit Cole on the mound, we win,” Houston manager AJ Hinch told Miller. “We have. We’ve kind of proven that.” Not wrong. Cole, 29, hasn’t lost a decision since May 22 (a date which preceded the Stanley Cup Finals, for reference) and is coming off a Divisional Series performance that saw him strike out 25 of the 54 Rays batters he faced. His success has been so tremendous that even his fellow Astros have begun to muse on just how much money the UCLA product might be in line to receive in free agency this winter. “I think everybody’s looking at that across baseball,” said outfielder Josh Reddick. “Harper money? Machado money? It’s going to be interesting.”

As Fangraphs’ Jay Jaffe points out, only four hurlers–Rick Sutcliffe, Mark Davis, Greg Maddux, and Roger Clemens–have earned a Cy Young award in the season preceding their free agency. Cole is widely expected to become the fifth."

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

If he won’t, he’s never getting an ace. Strasburg isn’t signing for 5 years. 

I don't agree. He's 2 years older than Cole and has 4 years left on his current deal. If he gets a big upgrade in AAV I could definitely see him taking a 5 year deal. 6 at most. He's not getting 7 years.

[tdawg87]

3 minutes ago, Mark68 said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/al-notes-cole-edwin.html

 

"In less than three hours, Astros ace Gerrit Cole will take the field at Yankee Stadium in the hopes of securing his team a 2-1 lead over New York in the ALCS. Judging from quotes made to Scott Miller of Bleacher Report, his teammates are likely to be feeling mighty confident when Cole toes the rubber. “When you have Gerrit Cole on the mound, we win,” Houston manager AJ Hinch told Miller. “We have. We’ve kind of proven that.” Not wrong. Cole, 29, hasn’t lost a decision since May 22 (a date which preceded the Stanley Cup Finals, for reference) and is coming off a Divisional Series performance that saw him strike out 25 of the 54 Rays batters he faced. His success has been so tremendous that even his fellow Astros have begun to muse on just how much money the UCLA product might be in line to receive in free agency this winter. “I think everybody’s looking at that across baseball,” said outfielder Josh Reddick. “Harper money? Machado money? It’s going to be interesting.”

As Fangraphs’ Jay Jaffe points out, only four hurlers–Rick Sutcliffe, Mark Davis, Greg Maddux, and Roger Clemens–have earned a Cy Young award in the season preceding their free agency. Cole is widely expected to become the fifth."

Ehhh, Verlander is the Cy Young IMO.

[Mark68]

1 minute ago, tdawg87 said:

Ehhh, Verlander is the Cy Young IMO.

A case could be made for either one...but what Cole has done since May cannot be overlooked.

As it is, Verlander & Cole will probably be 1 & 2.