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The Other Guy (not Cole)


Docwaukee

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I think it's clear to all that getting Cole would be huge but it's not that hard for a GM to look good by signing him.  

Where Billy is gonna earn his keep is with the second guy he grabs this winter.  

What are people's choices on that?  

I've seen Strasburg's name thrown around and I'll say that we need to be careful what we wish for on that.  If he opts out, that's just another suitor for Cole and Boras has a really strong relationship with the Nats.  Plus, I just don't see the Angels trying to afford both.  

I would prefer Wheeler for the right price because I think there is some untapped potential.  

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10 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I think it's clear to all that getting Cole would be huge but it's not that hard for a GM to look good by signing him.  

Where Billy is gonna earn his keep is with the second guy he grabs this winter.  

What are people's choices on that?  

I've seen Strasburg's name thrown around and I'll say that we need to be careful what we wish for on that.  If he opts out, that's just another suitor for Cole and Boras has a really strong relationship with the Nats.  Plus, I just don't see the Angels trying to afford both.  

I would prefer Wheeler for the right price because I think there is some untapped potential.  

If Strasburg opts out, he'll be entering his age 32 season and giving up 4/$100 million.  That's a risk to think a team would go 5/$125 (or higher) for someone who would be 37+ his final year.  I'd stay away.

MadBum could be interesting on a 4 year deal.  He's not an ace but he'll hit close to 200 IP this year and his K, BB, and H/9 are solid.

Wheeler would solid to me...just turned 29, walk and K numbers consistent, only the H/9 are really the difference in his WHIP.  Maybe they can snag him for less money/years than some other options.

Jake Ordorizzi is an intriguing option.  I don't think he matches 9.6 K/9 again but his lifetime average would make a solid #3 starter for the right price.

Some guys on the third tier to look at with maybe 1-3 years deals are a mix and match of Wade Miley, Dallas Keuchal, Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark.

Wheeler is probably my top preference followed by either MadBum or Ordorizzi.  

Cole, Wheeler, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning mixed in either one of the 1-3 year guys, a trade for someone like Samardzija, or who we currently have on the roster in Barria, Sandoval, Peters, Suarez, etc

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For me it’s Wheeler, he’s got good stuff and he’s young enough.  After that it would be Mad Bum.   Who would I enjoy being on the team most, probably Mad Bum.  He’s got a personality and some moxie.  Angels haven’t had a dude with balls on the mound since Weaver and before that Lackey.   

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The "other guy" may just be "the guy" since Cole is currently the top dog in this free agency class. I don't see the Angels getting both Cole and a second tier pitcher for the money they have to offer. 

Bumgarner and Wheeler would work well as a tandem at the top of the rotation rather than Cole and a third tier budget arm that could be a bust. 

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I think you stay away from Strasburg. 

There are 3 other guys that are a consideration to me signed outside of cole.

Wheeler: he healthy, big arm with good upside. Now than what kind of contract will he get? currently he has an ERA over 4, while producing a war over 3.  i would go 4 yrs 60 mil.... but my ideal deal is 4 years, between 13-15 mil per year.

Cole Hames: he's not an Ace or top of the rotation arm anymore, but a capable 3 that can eat innings. will probably try to look for a 3 year deal or accept the QO. Another Drawback, he has an ERA pf 2.98 int he first half, but so far in the 2nd half it 7.  2yr 30-34 mil with an cheap option.

keuchel: more of a inning eater. 3yr 33 mil

Few other guy that should be a cheap option

Alex Wood: he been hurt this year, but just 2 years ago he was a capable 3. he going to be 29.

Rich Hill: he's going to be 40. solid pitcher in his latter years..

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I've wanted Wheeler for years...  Lots of reasons.   Tell you who could be a huge value play.... Pineda.   Yes the dude just got popped with a suspension, and I'm curious what the story is if only because he was able to get the suspension reduced by 20 games after proving he had not taken the drug as a masking agent.   But check his numbers since early May or so when his velocity kicked back up.... On the year he's been good for an era of 4.00 with a k/w ratio of 5.0.   He's likely got the best upside of anyone not named Wheeler.  Whoever signs him will have to wait 30 days to use him but the guy may be worth the wait.

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17 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I've wanted Wheeler for years...  Lots of reasons.   Tell you who could be a huge value play.... Pineda.   Yes the dude just got popped with a suspension, and I'm curious what the story is if only because he was able to get the suspension reduced by 20 games after proving he had not taken the drug as a masking agent.   But check his numbers since early May or so when his velocity kicked back up.... On the year he's been good for an era of 4.00 with a k/w ratio of 5.0.   He's likely got the best upside of anyone not named Wheeler.  Whoever signs him will have to wait 30 days to use him but the guy may be worth the wait.

I would take Pineda and Wheeler in a heartbeat ... might be a better move for this team than Cole alone. The real question is going to be how Eppler plays the market. If Cole makes them wait the Angels need to pull the trigger on some alternatives before they get stuck with another crop like in 2018.

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1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

I've wanted Wheeler for years...  Lots of reasons.   Tell you who could be a huge value play.... Pineda.   Yes the dude just got popped with a suspension, and I'm curious what the story is if only because he was able to get the suspension reduced by 20 games after proving he had not taken the drug as a masking agent.   But check his numbers since early May or so when his velocity kicked back up.... On the year he's been good for an era of 4.00 with a k/w ratio of 5.0.   He's likely got the best upside of anyone not named Wheeler.  Whoever signs him will have to wait 30 days to use him but the guy may be worth the wait.

Pineda's coming off the TJ in early 2018 - he should be at full strength by ST, and probably won't get a QO.   And the suspension should keep his cost down.

The problem with these top-end starters is they all want long-term contracts - if we sign Cole and can't sign Wheeler, Pineda could be a bargain - probably someone you need to sign early, tho.  

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The key is balancing projected performance and money commitment, and in my mind there's a big gap between Cole and everyone else.

Cole is by far the best available free agent (assuming Strasburg doesn't opt out, which I would be very surprised if he did). He's going to cost a huge amount, which narrows the gap between him and everyone else somewhat, but he's got a good chance of maintaining his value.

After Cole, its Zach Wheeler. Even if there's no untapped potential for a performance spike, he's still a very good #3 - a 4 WAR, 3.50ish ERA type.

After those two, it is hard to say, with a huge number of pitchers who fit into the mid-rotation mold, and should get multi-year contracts, probably in the 2-3 year range, depending upon age. Odorizzi, Ryu, Bumgarner, Keuchel, Roark, Porcello, Hamels, Gibson. Of these guys I'd probably go after Odorizzi, but would consider the others for shorter contracts.

Then there's another gap, with a group including Miley, Nova, Gonzalez, Pineda, Chacin, Anderson, Hill, Wood, and maybe one or two others. These are one-year, fill-in types that could surprise and have a good year (e.g. Miley) or could implode (e.g. Cahill, Harvey).

Finally there are trade candidates, the two most commonly mentioned being Matthew Byrd and Robbie Ray. I'd put these guys in the same vicinity as Odorizzi, but with the caveat of them costing prospects. 

So for me the best case scenario would be Cole and Wheeler. But I don't think Arte will open up the purse-strings for both as I think Cole will not only get $30M AAV, but Wheeler will surprise and get ~$20M AAV. Maybe Cole and a one-year fill-in or a trade, or maybe Wheeler  and Odorizzi. 

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