The Official NFL Season Thread

[Vegas Halo Fan]

6 hours ago, Tank said:

tom brady announced his retirement (again) today. 

I am breathing a sigh of relief. Sources that were reasonably credible linked the Raiders with Tom Brady. As dysfunctional as their organization is, the last thing that they need is a 46-year-old quarterback. Brady will turn 46 in early August.

[Blarg]

Don't worry, you're going to get Mayfield because he is old school Raider. 

[arch stanton]

George Blanda laughs at your age concerns 

[Brandon]

Looking costly

 

[Tank]

a service fee of $2k . . . highway robbery all on its own.

 

[Blarg]

For $2k I can throw one hell of a Superbowl party but the stripper tips are you guys service fees. 

[Brandon]

This Derek Carr thing is pretty interesting. They extend him, but give themselves an out (that they are going to take). I also saw something this morning that if he gets injured during the Pro Bowl that the Raiders are on the hook for some of the $40.4m owed. Just wild.

 

[Vegas Halo Fan]

6 hours ago, Brandon said:

This Derek Carr thing is pretty interesting. They extend him, but give themselves an out (that they are going to take). I also saw something this morning that if he gets injured during the Pro Bowl that the Raiders are on the hook for some of the $40.4m owed. Just wild.

As much as they have pansified the Pro Bowl, you would really have to work at it to get injured. I decided long ago that I am not paying money to watch flag football. The skills competition included - and I'm not making this up - dodgeball. I suppose that next year there will be an epic AFC-NFC battle in Red Rover.

[Brandon]

3 minutes ago, Vegas Halo Fan said:

As much as they have pansified the Pro Bowl, you would really have to work at it to get injured. I decided long ago that I am not paying money to watch flag football. The skills competition included - and I'm not making this up - dodgeball. I suppose that next year there will be an epic AFC-NFC battle in Red Rover.

I don't think it's happening, just that someone looked into the contract....granted, the contract was made before they changed this whole Pro Bowl format.

[St1ck]

I kind of dig this flag football Pro Bowl. 

[Tank]

I don’t think “I made the pro bowl in 2023” is going to be much of a bragging point for anyone’s career resume. 

[Blarg]

This was far from entertaining. Especially the halftime antics with Move the Chain and the trampoline catching. That all looked like no one was prepared to do any of it and it had a very amateurish feel to it. 

[Vegas Halo Fan]

On 2/5/2023 at 3:15 PM, St1ck said:

I kind of dig this flag football Pro Bowl. 

Apparently a lot of other people did, too. Almost 60,000 at Allegiant Stadium yesterday.

This tidbit about the Super Bowl: The last eight teams to win the coin toss have lost the Super Bowl.

[St1ck]

14 minutes ago, Vegas Halo Fan said:

Apparently a lot of other people did, too. Almost 60,000 at Allegiant Stadium yesterday.

This tidbit about the Super Bowl: The last eight teams to win the coin toss have lost the Super Bowl.

Some of the skills challenges can use some work or just dropped entirely. The 3 flag football games I thought were good though. I saw the players look legitimately like they were trying hard to win as opposed to the normal Pro Bowl game where no one gives a shit. I think having the Manning brothers go against each other was a good choice as well because of the sibling rivalry. 

[m0nkey]

Public’s still heavy on the eagles, think I heard FanDuel has 70% of the bets and 77% of the money on the eagles. 
 

Riding with the Chiefs again. And tails and no touchback for the opening kickoff 

[Vegas Halo Fan]

1 hour ago, m0nkey said:

Public’s still heavy on the eagles, think I heard FanDuel has 70% of the bets and 77% of the money on the eagles. 
 

Riding with the Chiefs again. And tails and no touchback for the opening kickoff 

There was a posting online summarizing when the game was played multiple times using Madden, and the consensus was that the Eagles will win the game. This, of course, means nothing.

[Brandon]

The last two Madden predictions were losses (Bengals and Chiefs), but ironically the last time it was right was the Chiefs vs. SF three years ago.

I think the line might stay somewhere around where it's at now (1.5) with maybe some late swings for the big bets. I think KC will be fine injury wise, but still some players listed as questionable (Sneed and Toney) while it's probably all but certain Hardman doesn't play.

[Tank]

question about the odds . . .

it's my understanding (which may be wrong) that each of the sports books sets the odds based on a variety of factors. what if, in this example, caesars sports book sets the odds at philly being favored by 2.5 while the mirage sports book sets it at philly by 3 and the wynn sports book sets it at philly by 1.5.

which one is the official one? or is that no such thing? during the game i'll hear tv people say "the eagles are favored by 2.5" just who are they citing for those odds?

forgive me if i'm not asking any of this correctly but i hope it makes enough sense to get a legit answer. TIA.

[arch stanton]

In the past the show would normally say Harrahs odds or something like that but these days I imagine it’s whichever sports book is sponsoring the show 

[Brandon]

14 hours ago, Tank said:

question about the odds . . .

it's my understanding (which may be wrong) that each of the sports books sets the odds based on a variety of factors. what if, in this example, caesars sports book sets the odds at philly being favored by 2.5 while the mirage sports book sets it at philly by 3 and the wynn sports book sets it at philly by 1.5.

which one is the official one? or is that no such thing? during the game i'll hear tv people say "the eagles are favored by 2.5" just who are they citing for those odds?

forgive me if i'm not asking any of this correctly but i hope it makes enough sense to get a legit answer. TIA.

The easiest way to example this is that there is a general consensus line. It's not official, just think of it as a baseline everyone kind of agrees would be fair. Then from there, as you mentioned, each casino has it's own people that will then base their individual line based on their own individual analytics and data team......think Moneyball and the Jonah Hill character, but a bunch of them. That individual casino will then put out their own odds with the goal in mind to be close, but also make the line enticing because ultimately the casino just simply wants your bet because they make what's called a vig....think of this as a simple casino entry fee that they get to keep regardless of the outcome.

So let's say as soon as that Niners/Eagles game last week ended and they knew it was KC v. PHI, they all came out with the consensus, then each casino/betting app/betting site then started making their own lines for people to bet individually at each casino, etc.

Now is the tricky but fun part and I might lose you. Think of the betting line like the stock market. It's constantly changing or adjusting based on variables that happen all the way until kickoff. This where you hear about the line shifting or maybe it take a wild swing one way. For instance, when they knew it was Chiefs/Philly, the line opened pretty big for PHI because no one knew if Mahomes ankle was ok and everyone knows an unhealthy Mahomes should make Philly the favorites. When Mahomes had a full first practice and was walking fine everyone knew he was healthy and knew the Chiefs had a better shot so the line moved to consider that factor/variable.

One last thing, when these casinos make their lines, they only care about making that vig/fee I mentioned above because they are going to have to payout to either Chiefs bets or Eagles bet......half win, half lose. So, while they want to make their betting lines attractive so you place your bet with them, they also don't want make it too attractive that they set themselves up for a potential really bad loss at the casino....again, they half to pay the winning half. Their internal goal at each casino (remember all of those Jonah Hill's and the data?) is to crunch the numbers and get an internal line as close to zero as possible. Their goal is to make it attractive so that I bet $100 on KC thinking they will win by that number and you bet $100 on Philly thinking the same thing, because the bets would cancel out because they would use your $100 to pay me if KC wins, or vice versa. But because of that vig, let's say for us each to place that $100 bet we both had to pay the casino a big of $10 each. So then the casino made $20 because they paid me your $100 for me winning.

As an example, after the conference championship there is two weeks until the Super Bowl. So that is two weeks of me, you, and everyone else to place bets and two weeks of variables.....players get injured in practice, a star player is arrested, benched, etc. so the line will move. Because if Mahomes was injured everyone would bet on Philly knowing they will win, so those Jonah Hill guys in the back want to give KC enough points to entice people to bet on KC and get their internal line to zero.

Hope this answers your question and makes sense. I can give examples if need be.

Edited February 7, 2023 by Brandon

[Brandon]

Oh, and to answer why you'll hear them say something on TV like "Eagles favored by 2.5", they are just going by the average by most casinos right before kickoff, but your bet stands with whatever casino you bet at personally. 

[Brandon]

I just heard some casinos are taking bets that Eagles RB, Gainwell, I think, will be the SB MVP at +100.

Bet $100 and win $10,000. I'd take a flyer on that.

[Tank]

45 minutes ago, Brandon said:

The easiest way to example this is that there is a general consensus line. It's not official, just think of it as a baseline everyone kind of agrees would be fair. Then from there, as you mentioned, each casino has it's own people that will then base their individual line based on their own individual analytics and data team......think Moneyball and the Jonah Hill character, but a bunch of them. That individual casino will then put out their own odds with the goal in mind to be close, but also make the line enticing because ultimately the casino just simply wants your bet because they make what's called a vig....think of this as a simple casino entry fee that they get to keep regardless of the outcome.

So let's say as soon as that Niners/Eagles game last week ended and they knew it was KC v. PHI, they all came out with the consensus, then each casino/betting app/betting site then started making their own lines for people to bet individually at each casino, etc.

Now is the tricky but fun part and I might lose you. Think of the betting line like the stock market. It's constantly changing or adjusting based on variables that happen all the way until kickoff. This where you hear about the line shifting or maybe it take a wild swing one way. For instance, when they knew it was Chiefs/Philly, the line opened pretty big for PHI because no one knew if Mahomes ankle was ok and everyone knows an unhealthy Mahomes should make Philly the favorites. When Mahomes had a full first practice and was walking fine everyone knew he was healthy and knew the Chiefs had a better shot so the line moved to consider that factor/variable.

One last thing, when these casinos make their lines, they only care about making that vig/fee I mentioned above because they are going to have to payout to either Chiefs bets or Eagles bet......half win, half lose. So, while they want to make their betting lines attractive so you place your bet with them, they also don't want make it too attractive that they set themselves up for a potential really bad loss at the casino....again, they half to pay the winning half. Their internal goal at each casino (remember all of those Jonah Hill's and the data?) is to crunch the numbers and get an internal line as close to zero as possible. Their goal is to make it attractive so that I bet $100 on KC thinking they will win by that number and you bet $100 on Philly thinking the same thing, because the bets would cancel out because they would use your $100 to pay me if KC wins, or vice versa. But because of that vig, let's say for us each to place that $100 bet we both had to pay the casino a big of $10 each. So then the casino made $20 because they paid me your $100 for me winning.

As an example, after the conference championship there is two weeks until the Super Bowl. So that is two weeks of me, you, and everyone else to place bets and two weeks of variables.....players get injured in practice, a star player is arrested, benched, etc. so the line will move. Because if Mahomes was injured everyone would bet on Philly knowing they will win, so those Jonah Hill guys in the back want to give KC enough points to entice people to bet on KC and get their internal line to zero.

Hope this answers your question and makes sense. I can give examples if need be.

thanks. that makes a lot of sense and i appreciate you walking me through it.

[Brandon]

5 hours ago, Tank said:

thanks. that makes a lot of sense and i appreciate you walking me through it.

Happy to help. It can get complicated and until it was explained to me properly I didn't get it at first. There is even more to it, but that is the basics. I, too, was curious what -2.5 meant and the how and the why. If you were ever to walk into a sports book in Vegas there are literally walls of various numbers for all types of sports, teams, players, etc. It's all overwhelming at first.

[m0nkey]

On 2/6/2023 at 8:02 PM, Brandon said:

The last two Madden predictions were losses (Bengals and Chiefs), but ironically the last time it was right was the Chiefs vs. SF three years ago.

I think the line might stay somewhere around where it's at now (1.5) with maybe some late swings for the big bets. I think KC will be fine injury wise, but still some players listed as questionable (Sneed and Toney) while it's probably all but certain Hardman doesn't play.

They placed Hardman on IR and activated CEH.  Don't know how involved they'll get him though