Path to the Wild Card

[mulwin444]

Let's say it takes 88 wins to get into the Wild Card conversation.  At 41-40 (40-34 since starting 1-6), the Angels would need to go 47-34 the rest of the way which is not a impossible feat by any stretch but the questions comes down to is it realistic?

Remaining Schedule: The stretch of games before the All-Star break is F'n brutal - 4 games against the A's, 4 games in TEX, and 3 games in HOU.  11 games against division rivals, all above .500 and 7 on the road.  If they emerge with somewhere between 6-7 wins, you have to feel pretty good about the team's chances in the Wild Card dogfight as it at least shows the team is competitive enough to be taken seriously. Which would be good because in the 2nd half it doesn't get much easier:

 - 14 games remain against HOU and, because it seems the universe enjoys kicking the Angels in the balls, 7 of the final 9 games of the season

 - 2 games in LA and I'm sure the Dodgers will be looking for revenge.

 - 7 games against Boston, including a 4 game road series in August

 - 5 games against TEX, including 3 on the road

  - 5 games against OAK, including 3 on the road

 - 6 games against CLE

 - 3 games against TB

 - 3 games in NY

What that means is that 56 of the remaining 81 games will either be against division leaders or teams they will be directing competing against in the Wild Card.  It also means they need to ace the remaining 26 games against the M's, O's, TIgers, Reds, White Sox, and Pirates.  Home vs Away games in the 2nd half in general is also pretty even at 42-39.  

There are no illusions  - this is going to be brutal.  

Can they do it?

Pros: 

Despite the combined awfulness of Cahill, Harvey, and Allen, the Angels are still above .500 at the half-way point of the season.  They also managed to survive injuries to Simmons and Upton, the late return of Ohtani, and slow starts of Heaney and Skaggs.  Right now, with Simmons due to return against OAK, the offense is stacked:

1) La Stella 2B - .296 .347 .849 OPS 124 OPS+

2) Trout CF - .303 .461 1.090 OPS 188 OPS+

3) Ohtani DH - .291 .354 .860 OPS 127 OPS+

4) Upton LF - .281 .357 .972 OPS 155 OPS+

5) Calhoun RF - .229 .321 OBP .782 OPS 106 OPS+

6) Simmons SS - .298 .323 .738 OPS 96 OPS+

7) Pujols 1B - .237 .309 .753 OPS 99 OPS+/Bour .190 .272 .702 OPS 84 OPS+

8 ) Fletcher 3B - .294 .350 OBP .759 OPS 103 OPS+

9) Lucroy C - .235 .311 .668 OPS 79 OPS+/Smith .296 .387 .856 OPS 129 OPS+

IF - Rengifo .238 .311 .679 OPS 82 OPS+ OF - Brian Goodwin .286 .343 .794 OPS 111 OPS+

While it's not the 2009 offense, this is the most complete line-up they've put out there in a while.  There are no Marte's, Valbuena's (RIP), Cozart's, etc burning an inning's worth of at bats.  The line-up is deep and the bench options can actually provide depth.

The Bullpen is also a strength finally.  Robles, Buttrey, and Bedrosian (I know, right?!) are solid can all close out a game, Noe Ramirez has reversed the deficits from last season at 2.95 ERA 1.034 WHIP 154 ERA+ and along with Cahill and Pena, can eat up some innings, and  Justin Anderson has a chance to be that 4th late inning option.

Cons: 

There is no legit 1 or 2 starter in the rotation.  Skaggs COULD be a borderline 2 if he performed like last season pre-injury, and he's trending the right way lately, but it's tough to depend on that happening.  Heaney is a solid 4.  He'll be better than he's been so far this season but will likely end up being what he was last season - 4.00 ERA 1.200 WHIP 100 ERA+ - the Kirkland Brand of starters.  Canning has looked really good but he'll likely be managed to 5+IP/85 pitches and the competition will be ramping up.  Barria, Suarez, Tropeano, and Peters will round out the other 2 starts but, overall, that pretty 'meh'.

In terms of the bullpen, despite their success, the top 3 are on pace for 75 games each and, if anyone gets injured, the depth in Garcia, Bard, Cole, and Jewell is thin.  There is not much room for error.

Conclusions:

This is going to hurt.  Is it doable?  Sure but a lot of things have to break right.  While I'm not buying the Rangers and A's long term, the Indians have SP depth to hang and, if they ever start hitting again, will make things tough for the Angels.  Also, the Red Sox have the SP to stay in it and the resources to make a move if the need should arise.  

The Angels need at least 2 SP to emerge either internally or by trade and they especially need a "horse"...someone that can put them on their back and give them a legit 6-7 innings per start.  They also need another impact reliever to mix in with Robles, Buttrey and Bedrosian.  Without at least one more starter and another top tier reliever, I can't see them advancing above 85 wins.  

As it stands, with no other moves, they are at best an 85 win team that could finish 2nd in the division and 4th in the wild card behind Boston, Cleveland and Tampa Bay. 

[totdprods]

They need to beat up on the AL West. Especially Texas and Oakland. Skaggs and Heaney are the key, unless we acquire another arm.

If they pitch to even a 3.50 ERA for the rest of the year - they’re capable - we probably get a spot. 

Boston, NYY, and Tampa might beat each other up enough to keep any one running away with the other WC. Cleveland should sell and aim for next year - the Twins whole rotation is up for FA and their offense could be very fickle.

Edited June 27, 2019 by totdprods

[arch stanton]

50 wins in the second half. Get it done 

[angelsnationtalk]

I'd love to see it, but i think the AL East will own both wildcard spots when all is said and done. 

[Stradling]

The Rays are either in a funk or they are coming back to the pack as they have lost 7 of their last 10.  That being said when I look at our schedule we are going to be hard pressed to win. 

[Claude]

Unfortunately our pitching will ultimately do us in. 

[floplag]

If i cut to brass tax, is it possible, sure, realistic?... not without some changes.  We simply do not have the SP to achieve it in my opinion.  if they go out and get one in trade, and the other continue to develop, its certainly possible though.

3.5 back, 4 teams to jump, 2 of which scare me, 2 of which do not.  Cle has been playing beneath itself in my opinion, i think they will have a better second half unless they choose to punt.  Bos will spend, we know that, they wont take the beating lying down.  Tex has been playing over its head and Oak lost a lot of good pitching to keep it up.  I do think TB will fall back a little but yeah something around 90 sounds about right. 

It comes down to this, are we better than Cle, Bos, and TB?  Right now i don't think we are.  Were close, im not being negative, but i said going in i felt we would fall a few games short and i see no reason to change that appraisal as yet.   If they were to go get Bauer for example, that changes, but i kinda doubt Cle punts. 

[Angel Oracle]

The Halos are hurt by being in the deepest division in the AL.    Even the Dumbpotos are playing better ball lately.   There are no Tigers, Royals, Jays, or O's giving teams a bunch of free wins in the AL West.

They are likely a better fit to contend in 2020, especially if they are somehow able to sign Gerrit Cole to lead the rotation. 

The pitching will be further along, and will NOT have Harvey, Cahill, and Allen holding it back.

Hopefully, a couple of the college pitchers drafted in 2018 can emerge to help out in the pen next season and give it the necessary depth.  

[Claude]

The wild cards will be the Red Sox and Indians. I think if our team shows up next spring with everybody healthy and a couple of pitching additions we will be in the mix. 

[fan_since79]

Last year it took 97 games to win the second wild card.

There's a chance, but the pitching really has to get much better.

 

[Claude]

15 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

The Halos are hurt by being in the deepest division in the AL.    Even the Dumbpotos are playing better ball lately.   There are no Tigers, Royals, Jays, or O's giving teams a bunch of free wins in the AL West.

They are likely a better fit to contend in 2020, especially if they are somehow able to sign Gerrit Cole to lead the rotation. 

The pitching will be further along, and will NOT have Harvey, Cahill, and Allen holding it back.

Hopefully, a couple of the college pitchers drafted in 2018 can emerge to help out in the pen next season and give it the necessary depth.  

We’ve consistently spent more money than any other AL West team so none of them should have any advantage over us. Well unless you consider team management. 

[fan_since79]

3 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

We’ve consistently spent more money than any other AL West team so none of them should have any advantage over us. Well unless you consider team management. 

$450 million on Pujols, Wilson, and Hamilton.

 

[Claude]

2 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

$450 million on Pujols, Wilson, and Hamilton.

 

If we had only moved the Pachanga sign back in 2012 we probably would’ve won about 3-4 more championships. 

 

[Stradling]

10 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

We’ve consistently spent more money than any other AL West team so none of them should have any advantage over us. Well unless you consider team management. 

Claude, you know exactly why Houston is good right now.  You know the answer.  You also know how teams get good young players.  You also know the history of free agency.  Lastly you know that good young players aren’t expensive.  You know all of this, but still post this type of shit.  

[DMVol]

11 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

$450 million on Pujols, Wilson, and Hamilton.

A fraction of that on international signings would have been huge....

[floplag]

1 minute ago, RBM said:

The phrase get down to brass tacks(not brass tax) is an Americanism dating from the 19th century. In the idiom, brass tacks means (1) the essentials, or (2) the basic facts, so to get down to brass tacks is to focus on the essentials.

.... gee, thanks, i guess. 

[Second Base]

Dont get me wrong guys, the Angels have had a lot go against them in the first half and it's impressive they're even a .500 team. But when was the last time things actually broke right for the Angels? 2014 by my recollection. 

Things likely aren't going to break right for the Angels in the second half, at least not in terms of W-L record. Some things will go right. Cahill and Harvey wil both come back and look pretty sharp coming out of the bullpen, allowing the Angels to flip them for more minor league depth. Jon Lucroy too. I'd like to see the Angels trade La Stella and Calhoun at the deadline as well but I don't think it will happen. But some of the younger guys are going to step in late this season and earn some spots on next year's team. 

Thaiss is going to come in and impress at the plate and at 3B and 1B. Rengifo is getting better everyday. Ward wil log some late season appearances in LF and swing a solid bat. Skaggs, Heaney, Suarez, Barria and Canning are all going to be solid down the stretch. 

This is going to give Eppler the freedom this offseason both in terms of money to spend and tradable assets to make some interesting moves. He'll probably trade La Stella and have Matt Thaiss fill his role as part time 3B and part time 1B, which adds up to a full time player. The return on La Stella in terms of prospects will be pretty solid too. I figure he'll probably also flip Heaney for a shutdown reliever to bolster the bullpen. Ab's forever he brings in, Gerrt Cole, Marcus Stroman, Robbie Ray, Zack Greinke....whoever, is going to make the Angels 2020 rotation one of the most formidable in the game. 

Basically, the only function of 2019 is to set the stage properly to make our run in 2020 and beyond and unseat the Astros atop the division. 

[stormngt]

Angels need to go with Skaggs. Heaney , Canning,  Pena/Barria/Suarez  split 2 of last three.

Stratton, Harvey, Cahill is the reason why this team isn't in it!

[PattyD22]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

If i cut to brass tax, is it possible, sure, realistic?... not without some changes.  We simply do not have the SP to achieve it in my opinion.  if they go out and get one in trade, and the other continue to develop, its certainly possible though.

3.5 back, 4 teams to jump, 2 of which scare me, 2 of which do not.  Cle has been playing beneath itself in my opinion, i think they will have a better second half unless they choose to punt.  Bos will spend, we know that, they wont take the beating lying down.  Tex has been playing over its head and Oak lost a lot of good pitching to keep it up.  I do think TB will fall back a little but yeah something around 90 sounds about right. 

It comes down to this, are we better than Cle, Bos, and TB?  Right now i don't think we are.  Were close, im not being negative, but i said going in i felt we would fall a few games short and i see no reason to change that appraisal as yet.   If they were to go get Bauer for example, that changes, but i kinda doubt Cle punts. 

I hate to use this term but as Angel fans, it's almost like we have "battered wife syndrome."  We seem to think things are going to change when in reality, they probably won't.  At least not this year I'm afraid.  

This team has really over achieved in some aspects in the first half.  Tommy LaStella, David Fletcher, Ty Buttrey, and a few other bright spots have happened here and there and helped us a least get in the conversation, but the proof is already there as it relates to the starting pitching.  The Angels have done well against teams they should beat but in the 2nd half of this season, the games are going to get significantly tougher, including many against our own division.  The Angels will need to get significantly better starting pitching which we already know, but the Angels are going to need to a couple other things better.  

Right now the Angels are 6-12 in one run games.  The Angels need to be way better in close games, like most good teams are.  They also need to get more aggressive in base running.  For a team that strikes out as little as they do, Ausmus sure doesn't put the runners in motion very often.  Most good teams are pretty aggressive on the bases, and the Angels aren't.  Lastly the bullpen is going to have to dig deep.  We currently are near the top in innings pitched and appearances, and I don't see that changing any time soon.  While the last several weeks have been promising in regards to the bullpen, let's face facts.  The schedule is going to get significantly more difficult and the pen is going to have to keep this up.  Am I confident this will happen?  Not particularly.  

I hope like heck the Angels can sneak in and grab the 2nd spot, I really do.  It's going to be a heavy lift against a tough remaining 81 games.  I'm hoping but I'm not confident.

 

[Lou]

It's a lock. 

[TroutBaseball]

16 minutes ago, PattyD22 said:

Right now the Angels are 6-12 in one run games.  The Angels need to be way better in close games, like most good teams are.

 

To the contrary this is a good sign. One runs games are statistically a coin flip.  We should be 9-9 in those games and we've been on the wrong side of randomness at least three times. That puts us tied with the Indians.

[GrittyVeterans]

I don't see it happening, but hey, at least it will be fun to follow!

[Lou]

Houston has lost 8 of 10 and are down 4-0 after 1 inning today.

Texas is winning 2-0.

If those games stay the same, Texas will only be 4.5 games back. 

[kevinb]

If this team is going to make the playoffs it has to beat playoff teams. Saying it’s a brutal schedule is a lame duck excuse. If you want to be the best you have to beat the best. This team can do it. We have the talent. Don’t be afraid of anyone. It’s cliche but win one game at a time before u know it this team will be in the playoffs. 

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

If this team is going to make the playoffs it has to beat playoff teams. Saying it’s a brutal schedule is a lame duck excuse. If you want to be the best you have to beat the best. This team can do it. We have the talent. Don’t be afraid of anyone. It’s cliche but win one game at a time before u know it this team will be in the playoffs. 

I agree with this.