The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[Second Base]

Justin Upton was a major leaguer at age 19 after hitting 18 HR's, stealing 19 bases and batting .319 combined between Advanced A and AA in only two-thirds of a season.  He's gone on to average about .270/.350 with 32 DB 28 HR and 14 SB a year.  On a yearly basis, he's a 4-win player typically. 

I'm sorry, but that's not Jo Adell's floor.  It isn't his ceiling either, but his floor is considerably lower than that if we're being realistic.  

Adell's biggest comp so far is Torii Hunter.  Hunter was a .270/.330 hitter that averaged 34 DB 24 HR and 13 SB a year, to go along with gold glove defense.  On a yearly basis, he's a 3-win player.  This isn't to under-sell Hunter or Upton, but two really good players like that only serve to highlight just how insanely good Mike Trout is when he's putting up 10-win seasons typically. 

I would call Justin Upton and Torii Hunter Jo Adell's likeliest outcome.  Hunter is a 5-time all-star and a 9 time gold glover.  Upton (so far) is a 4-time all-star.  It's way too early, but I think Adell ends up being a .270/.330 30 DB 30 HR and 20 SB type of player, probably a 5-6 win player.  Better than Upton and Hunter at the end of the day.  But until he actually cracks the major leagues, being an ultra-athletic 4th OF is probably his floor. 

I mean put it like this, when Brandon Wood was ripping apart Advanced A Ball as a 20 year old, what would we have called his floor?  Probably not minor league depth fodder and occasional utility infielder, which is what he was.

[Angelsjunky]

I think we are using the term "floor" differently. I don't use it to mean the absolute worst case scenario, no matter how unlikely. I mean, every player's floor is, well, Ryan Bolden - or dark humor aside, at least Chevy Clarke or Brandon Wood. I use the word floor to mean the lower end of the range of likely outcomes. I don't see Adell as a toolsy 4th outfielder as within the range of likely outcomes. That's a rather unlikely outcome, and means that something went unexpectedly wrong.

Upton and Hunter are above average regulars, even borderline stars, but not true stars - and the numbers bear this out. Upton has averaged 3.7 fWAR and Hunter 2.9 fWAR per 162 games played. Over the last ten years, the median fWAR for all players with 600+ is 3.3 fWAR. If we take a +/- of, say, 0.5 WAR, then an "average regular" is 2.8 to 3.8 fWAR, or let's round it off to 2.5 to 4.0. Both Upton and Hunter have three seasons above that range. 

Now given that an "average regular" is a very good player, considering that "regulars" make up only something like 20-30ish% of all baseball players, they're both pretty good players. But they aren't great players. So I think a safe floor for Adell is as a good baseball player, or an average regular.

Now there is a scenario in which Adell isn't a 3-4 WAR player, I'll grant you that. But I think more likely than not, he's at least that good. If Adell ends up being a 4th OF it will be a huge disappointment. That isn't as much his floor as it is his basement.  

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

 

I think that's about his floor.

His ceiling is a hypothetical drug-free Darryl Strawberry.

Does that make calhoun homer simpson?

[GrittyVeterans]

I still see Springer as the guy Adell comps the best to. I’m not really a huge fan of the Upton comparison

[Second Base]

3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think we are using the term "floor" differently. I don't use it to mean the absolute worst case scenario, no matter how unlikely. I mean, every player's floor is, well, Ryan Bolden - or dark humor aside, at least Chevy Clarke or Brandon Wood. I use the word floor to mean the lower end of the range of likely outcomes. I don't see Adell as a toolsy 4th outfielder as within the range of likely outcomes. That's a rather unlikely outcome, and means that something went unexpectedly wrong.

Upton and Hunter are above average regulars, even borderline stars, but not true stars - and the numbers bear this out. Upton has averaged 3.7 fWAR and Hunter 2.9 fWAR per 162 games played. Over the last ten years, the median fWAR for all players with 600+ is 3.3 fWAR. If we take a +/- of, say, 0.5 WAR, then an "average regular" is 2.8 to 3.8 fWAR, or let's round it off to 2.5 to 4.0. Both Upton and Hunter have three seasons above that range. 

Now given that an "average regular" is a very good player, considering that "regulars" make up only something like 20-30ish% of all baseball players, they're both pretty good players. But they aren't great players. So I think a safe floor for Adell is as a good baseball player, or an average regular.

Now there is a scenario in which Adell isn't a 3-4 WAR player, I'll grant you that. But I think more likely than not, he's at least that good. If Adell ends up being a 4th OF it will be a huge disappointment. That isn't as much his floor as it is his basement.  

Well said. I think the low end of his likely outcome would be Torii Hunter.

[ScruffytheJanitor]

21 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

I'm not faulting them, it's called development for a reason and teams are always going to try to get everything they can out of a guy.   Just saying he's one of those guys where it seemed the constant tinkering may have slowed him up a bit.   I think we can all agree that there is no one way for a team to develop talent, if there was there would be a lot fewer misses and nowhere near as many busts.

Thaiss won't be a star, but if he can be useful it's a win.

If he can play Third @ 2-ish WAR/ Year,  I'd consider it a MAJOR win.

He also strikes me as the sort of guy who puts up a random 6-war season in the middle of a solid-average career.

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, ScruffytheJanitor said:

If he can play Third @ 2-ish WAR/ Year,  I'd consider it a MAJOR win.

He also strikes me as the sort of guy who puts up a random 6-war season in the middle of a solid-average career.

Yep....  I've always found it interesting that people will all talk up how the draft is a crap shoot, but at the same time dismiss a 2 WAR a year player as a win.   It's like they get it but they don't really understand how big of a crap shoot it really is.

[Vlad27Trout27]

Good to see Castillo Rebounding  this season. He's back in the fold as 5 or long reliever in the majors. 

Madero showing nice pose in AA, potential 3/4 depending on the 3rd pitch.

I actually see Wilson's offensive upside more than that off Thaiss and i think he has chance to be a solid 2nd/SS, with a few all-star years.

Thaiss, i wouldn't mind him being low average guy, but with a good/ High OBP and potential 15-20 hrs, while at 3rd or 1st

 so 250-260/350-370/ 15-20 hrs

 

 

[Stradling]

I think it is probably a little myopic for us to compare Adell to Springer, Upton and Hunter.  If he has the career of Upton or Hunter or consistently puts up years like Springer has that is a major win.  Someone on here last year said Adell had the floor of Upton, that is pretty arrogant.  Upton will retire with 350-400 home runs and will be in the Hall of Very Good.  If Adell can be close to any of these guys then we have ourselves a helluva player.  He can be less than those guys and guess what?  We still have a helluva player.  My fear is if he isn’t a Hunter, Upton or Springer he will be looked at as a failure, much like Howie and it will all be because of fan expectation narrative.  

[Second Base]

49 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I think it is probably a little myopic for us to compare Adell to Springer, Upton and Hunter.  If he has the career of Upton or Hunter or consistently puts up years like Springer has that is a major win.  Someone on here last year said Adell had the floor of Upton, that is pretty arrogant.  Upton will retire with 350-400 home runs and will be in the Hall of Very Good.  If Adell can be close to any of these guys then we have ourselves a helluva player.  He can be less than those guys and guess what?  We still have a helluva player.  My fear is if he isn’t a Hunter, Upton or Springer he will be looked at as a failure, much like Howie and it will all be because of fan expectation narrative.  

This was something @Angelsjunky and I were discussing one page back in this thread.  I also felt it was unfair to claim Upton as Adell's floor, but AJ clarified and said that Upton is the low-end of his likely outcome, which I think is much more fair, given that Upton is continually a 3-4 win player, and I could see Adell being that guy without being any sort of failure.  I do expect Adell to become more of a 4-5 win player, which is better than Upton, but won't be disappointed at all if he's slightly less.  Shoot, Hunter was more of a 2-3 win player each year and if Adell ended up being that guy, that would still be considered a successful outcome in my opinion.

Adell has more potential than either Upton or Hunter, but potential doesn't always result in value. 

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, Second Base said:

This was something @Angelsjunky and I were discussing one page back in this thread.  I also felt it was unfair to claim Upton as Adell's floor, but AJ clarified and said that Upton is the low-end of his likely outcome, which I think is much more fair, given that Upton is continually a 3-4 win player, and I could see Adell being that guy without being any sort of failure.  I do expect Adell to become more of a 4-5 win player, which is better than Upton, but won't be disappointed at all if he's slightly less.  Shoot, Hunter was more of a 2-3 win player each year and if Adell ended up being that guy, that would still be considered a successful outcome in my opinion.

Adell has more potential than either Upton or Hunter, but potential doesn't always result in value. 

I am not sure why Adell has more potential than two guys that are in the Hall of Very Good, but I will take your word for it since you have seen him more than I have.  Man, Hunter was such a great player, if Adell reaches 90% of that he will be fantastic.  The guy won 9 gold gloves, had almost 2500 hits, 5 all star teams.  I don’t think any of us considered Salmon a failure and he ended up with less than 1700 hits, 300 home runs and no All Star games.  If Adell is Salmon he is a helluva a good player.  

[GrittyVeterans]

4 hours ago, Stradling said:

I am not sure why Adell has more potential than two guys that are in the Hall of Very Good, but I will take your word for it since you have seen him more than I have.  Man, Hunter was such a great player, if Adell reaches 90% of that he will be fantastic.  The guy won 9 gold gloves, had almost 2500 hits, 5 all star teams.  I don’t think any of us considered Salmon a failure and he ended up with less than 1700 hits, 300 home runs and no All Star games.  If Adell is Salmon he is a helluva a good player.  

He’s the #2-#8 prospect in the league depending on who you ask. This isn’t some random fringe top 100 prospect that only Angels fans know about. I agree with you it’s not likely he’s better than an Upton/Hunter/Springer but I don’t think it’s crazy to say he has “potential” to do that or more.  His minor league track record and overall skill set backs that up

[Inside Pitch]

@Second Base  Here you go dude..  I remember you were all geeked up about him early last year...

Not a bad start to his pro career.   One of three 16 year olds on the DSL team.

Edited June 12, 2019 by Inside Pitch

[Angelsjunky]

Adell is now hitting .400/.464/.720 in his first 7 AA games.

[rafibomb]

13 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Adell is now hitting .400/.464/.720 in his first 7 AA games.

Does it make sense to promote him to AAA? Adell in the PCL would be pretty exciting. Or would the next step for Adell be a jump straight to the majors when rosters expand or next season?

[tdawg87]

20 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Adell is now hitting .400/.464/.720 in his first 7 AA games.

[Angelsjunky]

I admit to being perhaps overly optimistic about Adell, but he just seems to have that "it" factor. That said, there is some concern about his plate discipline - I do worry a bit if he'll be able to adjust to major league pitching. We could look to someone like Delmon Young as a cautionary tale. Young was one of the top prospects in baseball for a few years and did end up with a 10-year major league career, but never fulfilled his potential and aside from one year in 2010, was pretty mediocre. Young might be a worst-case scenario, but that's assuming Adell doesn't continue to develop, which given his make-up seems rather unlikely.

Another comp to consider is Byron Buxton, who was called by some "the next Trout" and then disappointed on arrival. It took a few years, but Buxton is turning into a pretty good player and could end up with a Torii Hunter-esque career.

Justin Upton is a challenging comparison because he's been so up and down during his career. Some years he's been an All-Star caliber player, but just as many years he's been mediocre to average. His 162 game average of .268/.348/.468 3.7 fWAR is quite solid, but more of a borderline star than a true star, in my opinion. I'd like to think that Adell has a very good chance of being a true star.

[Angelsjunky]

11 minutes ago, rafibomb said:

Does it make sense to promote him to AAA? Adell in the PCL would be pretty exciting. Or would the next step for Adell be a jump straight to the majors when rosters expand or next season?

I would resist the temptation - at least for now. AAA is a jump from AA, but not a huge one. And I worry about the Salt Lake effect. I'd rather see the Angels give Adell 30+ games, give him a chance to cool off and then work his way out of a slump, and also focus a bit on plate discipline. As much as I'd like to see him on the Angels, there's no rush. 

Now if he continues to destroy AA pitching for another few weeks with no sign of slowing down, then might as well send him to AAA. And yes, I think a September call-up is quite possible - even likely.

[Second Base]

3 minutes ago, rafibomb said:

Does it make sense to promote him to AAA? Adell in the PCL would be pretty exciting. Or would the next step for Adell be a jump straight to the majors when rosters expand or next season?

Quite frequently, because of the environment, AAA is actually less of a challenge than AA.  If Adell keeps killing it like this in AA, they'd probably just promote him straight from there, the way many top prospects get promoted, the way Trout was promoted.  I think Adell is just locked in right now.  He's been in AA before, isn't intimidated by the environment, and has had a full offseason and then some to work his tail off on whatever shortcomings he's had. 

The real test will be what happens when pitchers make the adjustments and start pitching him differently.  If he adjusts quickly, then you'll know he's probably major league ready.  If it takes him more than a couple weeks, then you'll know there's more work to be done.

And that's ultimately what separates Trout.  He's the first hitter I've ever seen that make adjustments in the middle of a plate appearance, or more commonly, mid-game.  You're not going to get him out the same way twice in a row.  You might get him out twice, but it won't be on the same pitch in the same location, hit to the same spot.  

[Second Base]

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

I would resist the temptation - at least for now. AAA is a jump from AA, but not a huge one. And I worry about the Salt Lake effect. I'd rather see the Angels give Adell 30+ games, give him a chance to cool off and then work his way out of a slump, and also focus a bit on plate discipline. As much as I'd like to see him on the Angels, there's no rush. 

Now if he continues to destroy AA pitching for another few weeks with no sign of slowing down, then might as well send him to AAA. And yes, I think a September call-up is quite possible - even likely.

Pretty much exactly what I was writing, you're just faster. 

[Second Base]

On 6/12/2019 at 1:47 PM, Inside Pitch said:

@Second Base  Here you go dude..  I remember you were all geeked up about him early last year...

Not a bad start to his pro career.   One of three 16 year olds on the DSL team.

He's only hitting a buck eighty, but his OBP is .378.  Really not bad.  He knows the difference between a strike a ball, but he's also swinging and missing a lot.  It'll be interesting to see what happens with more at bats, how things normalize.

But I think he and Deveaux make an interesting case study.  They both signed for the same amount.  But from a pure baseball standpoint, they may have had similar developmental levels.  Deveaux, because he was a year and a half older and already spoke English was pushed into rookie ball stateside and it's clear he was completely overwhelmed and had some serious changes to make to his game.  Ramirez gets to take his time and learn in the DSL.

I'll tell you who I'm excited to hear more about, it's Rainier Rivas.  17 year old kid, signed for 200k in Venezuela.  A physical specimen at 6'3" 220 lbs (was 200 lbs just last year).  Scouts say he's as strong as anyone out there, and his line drives will dent OF fences.  Originally, it was reported he had an easy time lifting the ball, but it's looking like that was his BP swing.  He just doesn't have any lift in his game-swing yet.  I'm guessing he will eventually though.  Scouts also felt he wasn't as light on his feet as he needed to be, the Angels felt otherwise.  He moves around pretty good for someone at 220 lbs.  

Many like what they hear about Raider Uceta, but Rainier is bigger, stronger, faster and has better plate discipline.  Uceta will be stateside in the AZL, which means something.  Rivas is still in the DSL.  But I wonder if he'll spend the whole season there.  He has 8 walks to 3 strikeouts, and is hitting .344. 

Edited June 19, 2019 by Second Base

[Second Base]

I'd also keep my eye on Orlando Martinez.  He's 21 and in Advanced A Ball, but keep in mind, he never spent a single game in  the DSL or AZL.  In fact, he didn't play in a single game between the ages of 19-20, over a year without a single AB while he was escaping Cuba.  But while he was on the 18u Cuban National Team, he was the best hitter on the team, and that includes Luis Robert.

He may lack the upside of other impact international prospects, but he didn't skip a beat once the Angels signed him.  They sent him to Orem as a 20 year old to get adjusted, and he hit .375.  So they moved him up to A Ball as a 20 year old, which is a pretty appropriate age to be there, and he hit .289.  Again, this is basically coming in cold and hitting .289 at an age appropriate level.  Imagine what he might have done or how far he may have progressed has he not needed to escape Cuba.

He's hitting .289 in the Cal League right now, but is fresh off an injury.  It wouldn't shock me if he hit well over .300 there and was promoted to AA.  He could be major league ready at 22 or 23.

[Scott34]

Your knowledge of prospects is super enlightening, @Second Base

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

He's only hitting a buck eighty, but his OBP is .378.  Really not bad. 

Legit 16 years old..  Whatever the numbers he's ahead of the game.

[UndertheHalo]

8 hours ago, Stradling said:

I think it is probably a little myopic for us to compare Adell to Springer, Upton and Hunter.  If he has the career of Upton or Hunter or consistently puts up years like Springer has that is a major win.  Someone on here last year said Adell had the floor of Upton, that is pretty arrogant.  Upton will retire with 350-400 home runs and will be in the Hall of Very Good.  If Adell can be close to any of these guys then we have ourselves a helluva player.  He can be less than those guys and guess what?  We still have a helluva player.  My fear is if he isn’t a Hunter, Upton or Springer he will be looked at as a failure, much like Howie and it will all be because of fan expectation narrative.  

I agree with all of this and will add that at this point the hype on Adell has solidly exceeded the hype that was surrounding Kendrick.  Even with the batting title talk he got. 

Edited June 13, 2019 by UndertheHalo