Interesting article on Realmuto trade value

[floplag]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-you-want-to-trade-for-j-t-realmuto/

No were not on the list of possible suitors but i found a lot of them interesting as many are not losing their top prospect.  

[Stradling]

Good if we can get him and not give up Adell I’d certainly be interested.  

[floplag]

8 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Good if we can get him and not give up Adell I’d certainly be interested.  

Based on what i see there i think we could.  Might cost 2 of Jones/Canning/Marsh which isnt painless by any means but still.. possible.

[Docwaukee]

5 minutes ago, floplag said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-you-want-to-trade-for-j-t-realmuto/

No were not on the list of possible suitors but i found a lot of them interesting as many are not losing their top prospect.  

I think you're reading that wrong.  The number after the players names isn't their rank for that team, but in all of baseball.  

As an example, the proposed package from the braves of Soroka and Riley would equivalent to Adell and Canning.  Same with Whitley and Alvarez from hou, Mckay and Honeywell from TBR 

And that's just the top two.  The author indicates that a third piece would need to be included to get it done.  For Atlanta, that was Kyle Muller or Bukauskas for Hou who are just outside the top 100.  That would be like Suarez for us.  

[jessecrall]

Marsh is blocked so he's exactly the kind of top-100, high upside prospect you'd be okay with losing. Canning would sting immediately, Jones would probably sting in 2021 when he's developed into a plus 2B who can hit while Realmuto is either gone or here on the wrong side of 30 making $18 mil a year from an extension.

Marsh, Suarez & Rengifo would be the ideal package but I think the Marlins will get better offers.

[floplag]

2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I think you're reading that wrong.  The number after the players names isn't their rank for that team, but in all of baseball.  

As an example, the proposed package from the braves of Soroka and Riley would equivalent to Adell and Canning.  Same with Whitley and Alvarez from hou, Mckay and Honeywell from TBR 

And that's just the top two.  The author indicates that a third piece would need to be included to get it done.  For Atlanta, that was Kyle Muller or Bukauskas for Hou who are just outside the top 100.  That would be like Suarez for us.  

No i read it right, the point is that many of them were not losing thier top prospect.  Im only suggesting that it could possibly be done without losing Adell. 
 

[Docwaukee]

9 minutes ago, floplag said:

No i read it right, the point is that many of them were not losing thier top prospect.  Im only suggesting that it could possibly be done without losing Adell. 
 

if they're not, then their #2 is of near equivalent value and somewhere in the top 25.  Our problem isn't Adell, it's the fact that the others we'd be including aren't as highly regarded as the 2nd and 3rd prospects the other teams are including. Which means we'd have to make that up in volume where it would be Canning, Marsh, Jones and Suarez.  

He sure would look good back there with Parker Bridwell and Odrisamer Despaigne throwing to him. 

[floplag]

3 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

if they're not, then their #2 is of near equivalent value and somewhere in the top 25.  Our problem isn't Adell, it's the fact that the others we'd be including aren't as highly regarded as the 2nd and 3rd prospects the other teams are including. Which means we'd have to make that up in volume where it would be Canning, Marsh, Jones and Suarez.  

He sure would look good back there with Parker Bridwell and Odrisamer Despaigne throwing to him. 

so i cant sign anyone, and i cant trade for anyone, you really are ok with tossing 2-3 years i guess.

[Blarg]

I would wait out the Marlins that know their player wants out. 

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, floplag said:

so i cant sign anyone, and i cant trade for anyone, you really are ok with tossing 2-3 years i guess.

toss the next two or the five after that.  You choose.  

seriously though.  I've made my opinion clear multiple times.  Spend a little extra in 19 and 20 to bridge the gap.  Don't trade your best prospects away to fill one of the 7 holes we currently have.  

I believe that children are the future.  

[NJHalo]

I wonder if expanding the deal to include Starlin Castro would help our cause? We get a second baseman, and they get rid of another high salary. 

[floplag]

28 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

toss the next two or the five after that.  You choose.  

seriously though.  I've made my opinion clear multiple times.  Spend a little extra in 19 and 20 to bridge the gap.  Don't trade your best prospects away to fill one of the 7 holes we currently have.  

I believe that children are the future.  

You realize if it doesn't break how you want it to it could easily be both, yes?
Were truthfully not that far off save for the fact that id like them to be a little more aggressive in that 19-20 window without gutting the future but i am willing to accept certain losses in return for making a better effort if its the right guys

[floplag]

3 minutes ago, NJHalo said:

I wonder if expanding the deal to include Starlin Castro would help our cause? We get a second baseman, and they get rid of another high salary. 

Interesting idea, wonder if he can play 3B

[NJHalo]

4 minutes ago, floplag said:

Interesting idea, wonder if he can play 3B

He did transition from SS to 2B, so he would seem to be "moveable". I guess its a matter of arm strength. 

 

https://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/2017/01/what_yankees_starlin_castro_thinks_about_trying_3r.html

 

[Second Base]

I think for me, it isn't so much he prospect cost as much as timing.  If the Angels were a 98 win team and the Astros were a 99 win team, then sure, I could understand the Angels sacrificing those prospects.  But the fact that the Angels are an 80 win team and can expect to be 10-20 games worse than the Astros in 2019, Realmuto moves the needle, but not anywhere near enough to justify that move.  

The only player that justifies that sort of gap is Mike Trout. 

[Docwaukee]

34 minutes ago, floplag said:

You realize if it doesn't break how you want it to it could easily be both, yes?
Were truthfully not that far off save for the fact that id like them to be a little more aggressive in that 19-20 window without gutting the future but i am willing to accept certain losses in return for making a better effort if its the right guys

of course I know that.  but I disagree with your second statement.  we're far enough and not willing to spend enough to where that mystery trade wouldn't help us enough.  

I presume you'd be good with acquiring Realmuto?  Let's say for kicks that we get him without giving up Adell.  But as I mentioned, since we are giving up a truly elite prospect, we have to make up for that in volume.  So it costs you Canning, Marsh, Rengifo and Suarez.  Realmuto also isn't free from a salary standpoint.  Likely around 6m.  So you've already eaten into your 30m budget.  Then you go out and get Keuchel for 18m per.  Let's say you get him to take 14m in 2019.  Then you spend another 10m on someone like Lance Lynn.  

So you've still got Cozart at 3b, Fletcher at 2b, Albert at 1b and Kole in RF.  With a rotation of Keuchel, Skaggs, Heaney, Barria and Lynn with Shoe, Pena and Trop as your depth among anyone else Billy can pull of the scrap heap.  You've got a young pen with potential and a lineup that has 3 potential replacement level players.  Your bench is a 3 waiver pickups or maybe Hermosillo.  You've decimated your minor league SP depth, and punt a serious dent in your 2b and Of prospect depth where, outside of Adell, Jones, Ward and Thaiss, just about all of the guys who could be something are in A+ or lower.  

Sorry, but that lineup and pitching staff doesn't get us there.  Maybe a 2nd wild card at best.  maybe.  I just don't want to do that for a maybe at the 2nd wild card slot.  

[jessecrall]

15 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I think for me, it isn't so much he prospect cost as much as timing.  If the Angels were a 98 win team and the Astros were a 99 win team, then sure, I could understand the Angels sacrificing those prospects.  But the fact that the Angels are an 80 win team and can expect to be 10-20 games worse than the Astros in 2019, Realmuto moves the needle, but not anywhere near enough to justify that move.  

The only player that justifies that sort of gap is Mike Trout. 

The Angels were a ~.500 last year in the standings and via their pythag. If Calhoun and Cozart are merely average in 2019, that's a 3 game swing. If they get a solid starter, Canning makes some kind of positive contribution and they get reasonably full seasons from Skaggs & Heaney, that's another 5 wins. Add in Realmuto and you've got a 90 win team. None of this stuff is certain, Trout could get hurt, Ohtani could be on the shelf longer than desired, Pujols could play 150 very bad games etc etc. But it's not crazy to see them as a solid WC contender in 2019. Houston's losing free agents, Verlander's old, Altuve & Springer probably peaked, their front office just lost a top analytics guy...they're not going to be a powerhouse for much longer. I'm not saying they SHOULD get Realmuto, particularly if the Marlins are trying to fleece teams, just that there are moving parts beyond Realmuto that can get the Angels into a playoff spot over the next couple of years.

[Second Base]

14 minutes ago, jessecrall said:

The Angels were a ~.500 last year in the standings and via their pythag. If Calhoun and Cozart are merely average in 2019, that's a 3 game swing. If they get a solid starter, Canning makes some kind of positive contribution and they get reasonably full seasons from Skaggs & Heaney, that's another 5 wins. Add in Realmuto and you've got a 90 win team. None of this stuff is certain, Trout could get hurt, Ohtani could be on the shelf longer than desired, Pujols could play 150 very bad games etc etc. But it's not crazy to see them as a solid WC contender in 2019. Houston's losing free agents, Verlander's old, Altuve & Springer probably peaked, their front office just lost a top analytics guy...they're not going to be a powerhouse for much longer. I'm not saying they SHOULD get Realmuto, particularly if the Marlins are trying to fleece teams, just that there are moving parts beyond Realmuto that can get the Angels into a playoff spot over the next couple of years.

I think at that point you're mostly dealing in likelihood.  As in the likelihood that the Angels suddenly improve enough to be a 90+ win team and the likelihood that JT Realmuto is so good that he makes sacrificing both Adell and Canning as well as others worth it. 

I mean sure, it's within the realm of possibility, but it isn't something you're banking on.  The safer bet here is to hold onto Adell and Canning, and let them be a driving force for the Angels in 2020 and beyond. 

[floplag]

30 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

of course I know that.  but I disagree with your second statement.  we're far enough and not willing to spend enough to where that mystery trade wouldn't help us enough.  

I presume you'd be good with acquiring Realmuto?  Let's say for kicks that we get him without giving up Adell.  But as I mentioned, since we are giving up a truly elite prospect, we have to make up for that in volume.  So it costs you Canning, Marsh, Rengifo and Suarez.  Realmuto also isn't free from a salary standpoint.  Likely around 6m.  So you've already eaten into your 30m budget.  Then you go out and get Keuchel for 18m per.  Let's say you get him to take 14m in 2019.  Then you spend another 10m on someone like Lance Lynn.  

So you've still got Cozart at 3b, Fletcher at 2b, Albert at 1b and Kole in RF.  With a rotation of Keuchel, Skaggs, Heaney, Barria and Lynn with Shoe, Pena and Trop as your depth among anyone else Billy can pull of the scrap heap.  You've got a young pen with potential and a lineup that has 3 potential replacement level players.  Your bench is a 3 waiver pickups or maybe Hermosillo.  You've decimated your minor league SP depth, and punt a serious dent in your 2b and Of prospect depth where, outside of Adell, Jones, Ward and Thaiss, just about all of the guys who could be something are in A+ or lower.  

Sorry, but that lineup and pitching staff doesn't get us there.  Maybe a 2nd wild card at best.  maybe.  I just don't want to do that for a maybe at the 2nd wild card slot.  

i dont think it costs all 4, and for the record i would not pay all 4.    I would pay one of the pitchers and Marsh or maybe Jones if i could pus hthem in that direction.  If it becomes what you suggest walk away and sign Grandal/Ramos.  If they get to expensive screw it and bring back Maldy and upgrade elsewhere.  These are a lot of quality to good catchers on the FA market, MIA isnt getting top dollar in my opinion. 

You are correct, him alone doesnt get it, he would have to be combined with other acquisitions, exactly why i would like to see them spend more than they have said they would.  However, you get your 2 pitchers, you make that trade, now you sign Moustakis and 1 more, say get Marwin Gonzalez, Micheal Brantley, or Murphy as a fall back, different discussion.

Noone were counting on blocked, nothing unreplacable lost, and we give Trout/Simmons a reason to stay.  Its ambitious, its aggressive, its a lot of moving parts and its highly unlikely, but its possible. 
 

[jessecrall]

7 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I think at that point you're mostly dealing in likelihood.  As in the likelihood that the Angels suddenly improve enough to be a 90+ win team and the likelihood that JT Realmuto is so good that he makes sacrificing both Adell and Canning as well as others worth it. 

I mean sure, it's within the realm of possibility, but it isn't something you're banking on.  The safer bet here is to hold onto Adell and Canning, and let them be a driving force for the Angels in 2020 and beyond. 

Oh, I would absolutely hold Adell and would be very, very reluctant to part with Canning.

[Angel Oracle]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

if they're not, then their #2 is of near equivalent value and somewhere in the top 25.  Our problem isn't Adell, it's the fact that the others we'd be including aren't as highly regarded as the 2nd and 3rd prospects the other teams are including. Which means we'd have to make that up in volume where it would be Canning, Marsh, Jones and Suarez.  

He sure would look good back there with Parker Can Lose Bridwell and Odrisamer DespairDespaigne throwing to him. 

FIFY

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

i dont think it costs all 4, and for the record i would not pay all 4.  
You are correct, him alone doesnt get it, he would have to be combined with other acquisitions, exactly why i would like to see them spend more than they have said they would.
However, you get your 2 pitchers, you make that trade, now you sign Moustakis and 1 more, say get Marwin Gonzalez, Micheal Brantley, or Murphy as a fall back, different discussion.
Noone were counting on blocked, nothing unreplacable lost, and we give Trout/Simmons a reason to stay.
Its ambitious, its aggressive, its a lot of moving parts and its highly unlikely, but its possible. 
 

right.  but they're not gonna do that.  If they're not going to complete the team then why get Realmuto?  There stuff I think they should do and stuff they're going to do.  

My ideal reasonable off season would be:

Donaldson 1/15
Ramos 2/16
Descalso 1/5
Jay 1/4
Lynn 1/9
Eovaldi 4/60

If you can back load them right, it would be about 50m in additional payroll for 2019.  But we'll never do that.  

 

[floplag]

7 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

right.  but they're not gonna do that.  If they're not going to complete the team then why get Realmuto?  There stuff I think they should do and stuff they're going to do.  

My ideal reasonable off season would be:

Donaldson 1/15
Ramos 2/16
Descalso 1/5
Jay 1/4
Lynn 1/9
Eovaldi 4/60

If you can back load them right, it would be about 50m in additional payroll for 2019.  But we'll never do that.  

 

I never suggested it as a one off, only part of the larger plan.   Doing it by itself makes no sense, i agree. 
Frankly i dont see your plan doing much, youre going bargain basement in basically all but one spot and assuming Donaldson accepts a 1 year deal.  Sure we win a few more that we might other wise but its not likely enough to make a run.
If the plan is just to play 500 ball, why not just gives the kids a shot.   Im kinda done with the token moves myself.

[jessecrall]

5 minutes ago, floplag said:

I never suggested it as a one off, only part of the larger plan.   Doing it by itself makes no sense, i agree. 
Frankly i dont see your plan doing much, youre going bargain basement in basically all but one spot and assuming Donaldson accepts a 1 year deal.  Sure we win a few more that we might other wise but its not likely enough to make a run.
If the plan is just to play 500 ball, why not just gives the kids a shot.   Im kinda done with the token moves myself.

Yeah, one of the advantages of Realmuto is that he's under team control and thus trading for him would still allow for the financial flexibility to make additional moves. Ramos looks like a 3/$36 signing and Grandal's been tagged at 3/$45-51 plus a 2nd round pick over at Fangraphs. You're not getting much more than a decent rotation guy after that.

[Stradling]

@floplag what players currently available could you get that puts us over the top.  Spend $50 million like Doc did and build us a team that competes for the division.   Please use realistic salaries like Doc did.