Interesting article on Realmuto trade value

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, jessecrall said:

Yeah, one of the advantages of Realmuto is that he's under team control and thus trading him would still allow for the financial flexibility to make additional moves. Ramos looks like a 3/$36 signing and Grandal's been tagged at 3/$45-51 plus a 2nd round pick over at Fangraphs. You're not getting much more than a decent rotation guy after that.

If I have to give up 3 of my top 5 for Realmuto then I don’t want him.   If I have to give three years and $12-15 million per for Grandal or Ramos I don’t want them.   Sign Suzuki for 25-30% of that for one year and be done with that catcher position for the year.  

[Jeff Fletcher]

19 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

right.  but they're not gonna do that.  If they're not going to complete the team then why get Realmuto?  There stuff I think they should do and stuff they're going to do.  

My ideal reasonable off season would be:

Donaldson 1/15 33
Ramos 2/16 31
Descalso 1/5 32
Jay 1/4 34
Lynn 1/9 32
Eovaldi 4/60 29

If you can back load them right, it would be about 50m in additional payroll for 2019.  But we'll never do that.  

 

I added their ages for you in 2019.

[Barrett]

The Angels need to be in on this guy. He is still young and an absolute stud at the plate. 

[floplag]

3 minutes ago, Stradling said:

@floplag what players currently available could you get that puts us over the top.  Spend $50 million like Doc did and build us a team that competes for the division.   Please use realistic salaries like Doc did.   

OK... i already have on more than one thread, but fine ill do it again.  Using the estimates on the recent Fancred article as the base...

Gio Gonzalez 3/30 about 10 M per
Eovaldi 3/45. 15 per.
Moustakis 3/42 12M per  no more than 3 years.
Grandal 2/24 or 3/26, again about 12M per.
Thats 49M.
 
Gives us more LH presence for a balanced lineup, doesnt block significant prospects.   Adell takes over for Calhoun when the time comes the rest earn spots on merit when ready.

I had a 5th suggestion, but its dicey,  my first thought is someone that can play all over the field, Marwin Gonzalez for example, but i suspect he may price himself out of my list.  The logical option might be Murphy on maybe a 2/18, primarily to play 1B.  Maybe instead i look at a closer to help bring the kids long, Kelly perhaps, but i dont the front office even considers something like that.  In the end ill assume that Pujols will be the main DH till Ohtani is ready, the the main 1B after, with Thiass in the wings for when he inevitably gets hurt.  a 5th guy would take a few bucks off the pitchers, maybe downgrade to Happ instead of Eovaldi.   Realmuto makes both an option which is why i liked it but since noone wants to trade anyone i left it off.

Im not shooting for the stars, im not asking for the moon, but that lineup with our already improved bullpen likely wins a WC shot at least in my opinion.    This moves us ahead, stays on plan, and gives Trout and Simmons a reason to believe.

The reality based on what i read earlier is that we could spend as much as 60 with hitting tax... but i wont be greedy. 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

4 hours ago, Stradling said:

@floplag what players currently available could you get that puts us over the top.  Spend $50 million like Doc did and build us a team that competes for the division.   Please use realistic salaries like Doc did.   

Strad,

I did that in another when I posted Eovaldi was 4+1/65 - 7, 10, 13, 16, 19

Ramos 3/30 - 8, 10, 12

Miller 3/36 - 10, 12, 14

Ottavino 3/29 - 10, 10, 9

Gonzalez 4/44 -  8, 10, 12, 14

Harvey 2+1/28 - 7, 10, 11

____________

50M

[Docwaukee]

27 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Strad,

I did that in another when I posted Eovaldi was 4+1/65 - 7, 10, 13, 16, 19

Ramos 3/30 - 8, 10, 12

Miller 3/36 - 10, 12, 14

Ottavino 3/29 - 10, 10, 9

Gonzalez 4/44 -  8, 10, 12, 14

Harvey 2+1/28 - 7, 10, 11

____________

50M

@SlappyUtilityMIF just for kicks, do you then know what our payroll would be in 2021 if they did your and extended Trout, Simmons and Skaggs?

Lets call those three guys 40, 20 and 12.  plus your 58.  plus 23 from upton and 30 from Albert.  That's 203 mil from from 10 players.  Heaney will be an arb-3 and Ohtani an arb-1.  Right now our arb estimates overall are at 44mil but that should drop to about 30.  That's 233 mil.  plus the 20 mil for non arb controlled players and benefits.  That's over 250 mil.  

Just thought I'd point that out.  

[Stradling]

Thank you.   I wouldn’t give Eovaldi $65 million, I wouldn’t give Miller $36 million and I wouldn’t give Gio more than two years.   Also there’s zero chance Eppler gives Ottavino $29 million. 

[Docwaukee]

4 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I added their ages for you in 2019.

thanks.  Although I think you know that I know how old they are.  I don't expect to make the playoffs in 2019.  All of my proposed deals are super short term except Eovaldi who is 29.  

Eovaldi and Lynn are obvious choice that we are likely to do anyway.  Or something thereof.  Although I could see Eppler trading for Godley (or someone like that) from our 20-30 range of prospects instead of going with Lynn.  

Descalso is likely an upgrade over JMF in that he can play the OF.  

Jay is an upgrade over Herm who I'd like to see getting everyday at bats in AAA.  Herm is a guy that probably ends up as a 4th OFer eventually but I'm not ready to pigeonhole him into that role as of yet. 

Ramos is a massive upgrade over anything we have.  You want to temper the cost a bit?  I'd be ok with Suzuki for 1/5

Donaldson is the total wild card.  My assumption that he'll be available on a 1yr deal is unlikely and on top of that, who know which Donaldson you're getting.  If you get the .900 ops version and do all those other things, you have dramatically increased your chances of making the playoffs.  If he's injured a bunch then you likely hosed.  If he does well and a bunch of other stuff falls apart, then you trade him at the deadline for some solid prospects.  

*No prospects were harmed in the making of this roster.  

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

@SlappyUtilityMIF just for kicks, do you then know what our payroll would be in 2021 if they did your and extended Trout, Simmons and Skaggs?

Lets call those three guys 40, 20 and 12.  plus your 58.  plus 23 from upton and 30 from Albert.  That's 203 mil from from 10 players.  Heaney will be an arb-3 and Ohtani an arb-1.  Right now our arb estimates overall are at 44mil but that should drop to about 30.  That's 233 mil.  plus the 20 mil for non arb controlled players and benefits.  That's over 250 mil.  

Just thought I'd point that out.  

Yo Doc,

That wasnt asked and had zero bearing towards future $$$$....

To me Skaggs is expendable.

Cozart will be gone by year 3.

Pujlos gone by year 3.

Upton could be traded.

Calhoun would be gone as well with either Adell or Marsh in his and Uptons place.

250- 96M+ in savings. = 154M

1B Thaiss

2B fletcher

SS Simmons

3B gonzalez/Ward

C - future player, minor league guy.

Of 

Adell, Trout and Marsh

Dh Ohtani 

 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

3 hours ago, Stradling said:

Thank you.   I wouldn’t give Eovaldi $65 million, I wouldn’t give Miller $36 million and I wouldn’t give Gio more than two years.   Also there’s zero chance Eppler gives Ottavino $29 million. 

That's not Gio.....There is a guy named Marwin Gonzalez who is also a FA. Who could play either corner OF, all across the infield and play DH.

And someone better be putting some $$ towards a lock down bullpen if we aren't going to run out 5 or 6 guys that can consistently get through 5 innings without giving up 5-6 runs per game. Our bullpen needs some veteran leaders out there that can help the kids. Even KROD had Percival, Percival had Smith .. our bully has been dogshit overall. Spin rates or otherwise. We dont need to do bullpen games. That's a nice excuse for a team that lacks solid starting pitchers. Or, teams that are over their self imposed salary caps.

I would keep Buttery, Parker, Anderson and Alverez the rest trade bait for minor leaguers... or your guys next man crush of a Meyers fill in 

[Stradling]

2 hours ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

That's not Gio.....There is a guy named Marwin Gonzalez who is also a FA. Who could play either corner OF, all across the infield and play DH.

And someone better be putting some $$ towards a lock down bullpen if we aren't going to run out 5 or 6 guys that can consistently get through 5 innings without giving up 5-6 runs per game. Our bullpen needs some veteran leaders out there that can help the kids. Even KROD had Percival, Percival had Smith .. our bully has been dogshit overall. Spin rates or otherwise. We dont need to do bullpen games. That's a nice excuse for a team that lacks solid starting pitchers. Or, teams that are over their self imposed salary caps.

I would keep Buttery, Parker, Anderson and Alverez the rest trade bait for minor leaguers... or your guys next man crush of a Meyers fill in 

Let me know when Eppler subscribes to this bullpen theory.  I truly don’t think he will until it’s the finishing piece.  It’s funny you talk about our man crush yet you’re willing to give Eovaldi all that money and he’s had a pretty average career and showed up on everyone’s radar because of one post season.  Ottavino has had a couple of good years and some bad years.  His career whip before this year was nearly 1.4.   Hrs going into his age 33 season.  And Miller looked like he was showing the effects of the last few years of pitching a ton.  His ERA was over 4.  These are very risky picks especially for a lock down pen.  

[Docwaukee]

8 hours ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Yo Doc,

That wasnt asked and had zero bearing towards future $$$$....

To me Skaggs is expendable.

Cozart will be gone by year 3.

Pujlos gone by year 3.

Upton could be traded.

Calhoun would be gone as well with either Adell or Marsh in his and Uptons place.

250- 96M+ in savings. = 154M

1B Thaiss

2B fletcher

SS Simmons

3B gonzalez/Ward

C - future player, minor league guy.

Of 

Adell, Trout and Marsh

Dh Ohtani 

 

it was just an exercise.  my numbers took into account Calhoun and Cozart being gone.  Albert is still on the books in 2021.  I agree Skaggs could be expendable by then.  Upton will be entering his age 33 season and owed 2/51.  No one is going to take him unless we eat a bunch of money.  

if it wasn't asked then it doesn't matter?  How does it have zero bearing?  Maybe I am misunderstanding.   

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

22 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

it was just an exercise.  my numbers took into account Calhoun and Cozart being gone.  Albert is still on the books in 2021.  I agree Skaggs could be expendable by then.  Upton will be entering his age 33 season and owed 2/51.  No one is going to take him unless we eat a bunch of money.  

if it wasn't asked then it doesn't matter?  How does it have zero bearing?  Maybe I am misunderstanding.   

Zero bearing....as the question that was asked was spend 50M this season anyway you want! It didnt say include the following years or anything like that. And as we know we can shed some payroll in other spots as we finally have some positional players that have some talent in the system.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

6 hours ago, Stradling said:

Let me know when Eppler subscribes to this bullpen theory.  I truly don’t think he will until it’s the finishing piece.  It’s funny you talk about our man crush yet you’re willing to give Eovaldi all that money and he’s had a pretty average career and showed up on everyone’s radar because of one post season.  Ottavino has had a couple of good years and some bad years.  His career whip before this year was nearly 1.4.   Hrs going into his age 33 season.  And Miller looked like he was showing the effects of the last few years of pitching a ton.  His ERA was over 4.  These are very risky picks especially for a lock down pen.  

Miller and all of Clevelands current and former bullpen is one of the many relief pitchers who have pitched a lot over the last few years including Jansen that have hit a wall. We dont need to use the guy in the same situation. I was thinking more inline as a closer. To work with Buttery and then give way to him in year 2 or 3 and then become the setup guy!

Limit innings 8th-9th or later.

Ottavino had some good years with Colorado his career WHIP in Colorado is 1.257 with a SO9 of 10.4.. he takes over as a setup guy with Parker. Lower altitude and our marine layer may help his stats even more.

The only other Arm I might be interested in that is a FA would be Josh Tomlin.

I might offer a few pieces to Cleveland for Bauer or Carrasco.

Eovaldi has had some ability and has always been able to throw the ball by people. As a kid coming up through the Dogs chain also. Like I even stated I would approach him with 2 contracts one as a starter and one as a closer let him decide.

We all know that the early run to bullpens will tear apart arms down the line. But, lefties have always aged a little better and a crafty lefty who changes arm slots and turns the ball over later is better than a soft tossing righty who cant get anyone out.

And guys it's ok for me to disagree. You both enjoy stats, and writing articles and research. I enjoy a few stats, and researching and remembering when I played. I also played with many great players and even talked the game with past Halos and Hall of Famers. I've sat in the cafeteria and broke bread with a few of the former players and talk baseball with them. See what they think of the change of the game today. Clyde is always great to talk changes of the game with I've been picking his brain since high school and when I coached Jaret.

[totdprods]

I’m still real leery on Realmuto. He’s either going to cost you one really good prospect, someone we deem untouchable, or enough of a quantity of good prospects that it’s going to hurt.

Which is the Realmuto? The 2018 MVP-caliber player, or the 2016-2017 annual All-Star player?

Obviously either would be a huge upgrade in relation to what we’ve had and for that position, but if his winds up being more like the ‘16-‘17 version and 1) his cost is significant, 2) the other moves we make are limited, then it becomes awfully risky throwing a lot of resources into a position that is so susceptible to injury and varying demands, especially when Eppler has done such a good job finding decent, positive WAR catchers for so little. Especially with our injury luck.

It just feels like almost an unnecessary gamble when those same assets could either make as much difference helping our pitching, locking in another young controlled bar, or remaining as future pieces. Eppler has done a fine job digging up productive catchers as is.

[floplag]

19 hours ago, Stradling said:

If I have to give up 3 of my top 5 for Realmuto then I don’t want him.   If I have to give three years and $12-15 million per for Grandal or Ramos I don’t want them.   Sign Suzuki for 25-30% of that for one year and be done with that catcher position for the year.  

The problem is that our need is for much  more than 1 year.   
As we saw from the recent lists, C is perhaps our worst spot on our prospect lists, we have one guy, Ward, with any real promise and another i dont think i had even heard of prior to reading that list. 
We need an answer for much more than 1 year band aid. 
I would have no problem giving a Grandal a 2-3 year deal personally or obviously getting Realmuto for the right price, beyond that the commitment gets a lot shorter though.  

[Jeff Fletcher]

On 11/9/2018 at 11:56 AM, totdprods said:

I’m still real leery on Realmuto. He’s either going to cost you one really good prospect, someone we deem untouchable, or enough of a quantity of good prospects that it’s going to hurt.

Which is the Realmuto? The 2018 MVP-caliber player, or the 2016-2017 annual All-Star player?

Obviously either would be a huge upgrade in relation to what we’ve had and for that position, but if his winds up being more like the ‘16-‘17 version and 1) his cost is significant, 2) the other moves we make are limited, then it becomes awfully risky throwing a lot of resources into a position that is so susceptible to injury and varying demands, especially when Eppler has done such a good job finding decent, positive WAR catchers for so little. Especially with our injury luck.

It just feels like almost an unnecessary gamble when those same assets could either make as much difference helping our pitching, locking in another young controlled bar, or remaining as future pieces. Eppler has done a fine job digging up productive catchers as is.

I think a catcher like Realmuto is a much safer play than the equivalent pitcher. (Trevor Bauer? James Paxton?) Pitchers get hurt more. And also play less.  It’s harder to find a good catcher who can hit than a good pitcher. 

[Docwaukee]

On 11/9/2018 at 12:17 PM, floplag said:

The problem is that our need is for much  more than 1 year.   
As we saw from the recent lists, C is perhaps our worst spot on our prospect lists, we have one guy, Ward, with any real promise and another i dont think i had even heard of prior to reading that list. 
We need an answer for much more than 1 year band aid. 
I would have no problem giving a Grandal a 2-3 year deal personally or obviously getting Realmuto for the right price, beyond that the commitment gets a lot shorter though.  

if we need much more than one year, how is two years of Realmuto that much better when giving up years of prospect currency to get it?  

positional scarcity is a fickle mistress.

[arch stanton]

Boston just blew through the league with the worst catching combo in the league, at least offensively. Get rid of the other holes in the lineup and it's not a huge issue

[Docwaukee]

On 11/9/2018 at 11:56 AM, totdprods said:

I’m still real leery on Realmuto. He’s either going to cost you one really good prospect, someone we deem untouchable, or enough of a quantity of good prospects that it’s going to hurt.

Which is the Realmuto? The 2018 MVP-caliber player, or the 2016-2017 annual All-Star player?

Obviously either would be a huge upgrade in relation to what we’ve had and for that position, but if his winds up being more like the ‘16-‘17 version and 1) his cost is significant, 2) the other moves we make are limited, then it becomes awfully risky throwing a lot of resources into a position that is so susceptible to injury and varying demands, especially when Eppler has done such a good job finding decent, positive WAR catchers for so little. Especially with our injury luck.

It just feels like almost an unnecessary gamble when those same assets could either make as much difference helping our pitching, locking in another young controlled bar, or remaining as future pieces. Eppler has done a fine job digging up productive catchers as is.

I've always felt Billy thinks of catchers like he thinks of pen pieces.  They are rarely worth spending on because the upgrade cost and risk associated is completely unpredictable.  If you can get decent value for almost nothing, why spend a boat load on an upgrade where spending less in other areas can get you a similar, more predictable upgrade?  Case in point, you can replace the 9 below replacement starters in our rotation who gave us -2 wins by adding a free agent for about 10 mil.  A 4 win swing.  Vs. spending significant prospect capital to get a 4 win swing at catcher.  Maybe if you don't have that deficit at SP, you focus on other areas, but when you do, you focus on the area where you can get the biggest bang for buck.  

[Docwaukee]

10 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

Boston just blew through the league with the worst catching combo in the league, at least offensively. Get rid of the other holes in the lineup and it's not a huge issue

If they could have afforded to upgrade at C, they probably would have, but they prioritized a DH upgrade which cost them resources they had available ie $$$$.  

[arch stanton]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

If they could have afforded to upgrade at C, they probably would have, but they prioritized a DH upgrade which cost them resources they had available ie $$$$.  

During the season they traded away minor league relievers to get Eovoldi and Kinsler and still never pulled off a deal for a catcher 

[floplag]

9 hours ago, Dochalo said:

if we need much more than one year, how is two years of Realmuto that much better when giving up years of prospect currency to get it?  

positional scarcity is a fickle mistress.

its funny how you assume we will keep Trout and Simmons but keeping Realmuto should we make the trade doesnt cross your mind?  I dont make the trade for just the 2 arb years, i make it to try to keep beyond that.  I would try to work out an extension next off season that adds onto the deal if he works out next year.  He gets expensive when Albert drops off, problem solved. 
Again i only do this as part of a larger plan, otherwise its moot.

[Stradling]

32 minutes ago, floplag said:

its funny how you assume we will keep Trout and Simmons but keeping Realmuto should we make the trade doesnt cross your mind?  I dont make the trade for just the 2 arb years, i make it to try to keep beyond that.  I would try to work out an extension next off season that adds onto the deal if he works out next year.  He gets expensive when Albert drops off, problem solved. 
Again i only do this as part of a larger plan, otherwise its moot.

The difference is we don’t have to give up prospects for Trout or Simmons.  If Realmuto was a free agent no one would be saying we should sign him to a TWO year contract.  

[floplag]

10 minutes ago, Stradling said:

The difference is we don’t have to give up prospects for Trout or Simmons.  If Realmuto was a free agent no one would be saying we should sign him to a TWO year contract.  

Yes, i know, and pending which ones they are im willing to accept that in trade for a proven all star that possibly helps us win sooner rather than later.