FA Flashback

[Inside Pitch]

Some of the deals people were big on or upset the Angels didn't make and the return on investment so far

2018

Jake Arrieta -- 3 years, 75 mil -- 10-11, 3.96 (105 ERA+) 3.1 bWAR
J.D. Martinez -- 5 years 110 mil -- 1.031 OPS (173 OPS+) 6.4 bWAR Can opt out next year 
Carlos Santana -- 3 years, 60 mil -- .776 OPS (105 OPS+) 1.7 bWAR
Yu Darvish -- 6 years, 126 mil -- 1-3, 4.95 (87 ERA+)  -0.2 bWAR
Eric Hosmer -- 8 years, 144 mil -- .720 OPS (99 OPS+) 1.4 bWAR
Wade Davis -- 4 years 52 mil -- 3-6, 46 saves 4.13  (114 ERA+) 1.1 bWAR
Lorenzo Cain -- 5 years, 80 mil -- 813 OPS (119 OPS+) 6.9 bWAR
Alex Cobb -- 4 years, 57 mil -- 5-15, 4.95 (85 ERA+) 1.1 bWAR
Gregg Holland -- 1 year, 14 mil -- 2-2. 4.66, 3 saves (80 ERA+) -0.2 bWAR  -- dude was released by the team that signed him.
Jay Bruce -- 3 years 39 mil -- .680 OPS (92 OPS+) -0.4 bWAR
Tyler Chatwood -- 3 years 38 mil -- 4-6, 5.30 (81 ERA+) 0.0 bWAR 
Lance Lynn -- 1 year, 12 mil -- 10-10 4.77 (92 ERA+) 0.8 bWAR
Brandon Morrow -- 2 years, 21 mil -- 0-0, 1.47, 22 saves (295 ERA+)1.4 bWAR -- Dude was lights out but only for 30 IP.
Addison Reed -- 2 years, 16.75 mil -- 1-6, 0 saves, 4.50 (97 ERA+), 0.1 -- wasn't used as closer

These were the bigger names last year -- other than Martinez and Cain (great value), there isn't a lot to cry over -- Arrieta wasn't bad.   If people want to look up individual players and check on who struck gold with cheap deals here's a link to last years MLBrumors' FA tracker https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018-mlb-free-agent-tracker/sort_column-amount__sort_direction-0

Let's hope the Angels avoid the landmines and find some value.

 

[Stradling]

I wanted Darvish, I thought he made sense, I was wrong.  Claude wanted two guys, he batted .500.  He wanted Hosmer and he wanted Cain.  

[Stradling]

I think we would all agree that Eppler would benefit from having a time traveling friend as it relates to free agency and the trade market.  

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I wanted Darvish, I thought he made sense, I was wrong.  Claude wanted two guys, he batted .500.  He wanted Hosmer and he wanted Cain.  

FWIW, I was just throwing this up here because as fans we tend to have short memories when it comes to FA.   Everyone sees upgrades, but hindsight being what it is, it's easy to see how few of these deals actually would have paid off.    The really crazy part is that some of the deals that looked like absolute deals (Neil Walker, Logan Morrison), were completely meh acquisitions.   Then you had some really cheap deals like Bud Norris (again), Michael Fiers, that ended up being great deals...

[Inside Pitch]

3 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I think we would all agree that Eppler would benefit from having a time traveling friend as it relates to free agency and the trade market.  

If he did, he'd win the lotto and invite all his pals to come on a all expenses paid Surfing trip around the globe

[halonatic13]

19 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Some of the deals people were big on or upset the Angels didn't make and the return on investment so far

2018

Jake Arrieta -- 3 years, 75 mil -- 10-11, 3.96 (105 ERA+) 3.1 bWAR
J.D. Martinez -- 5 years 110 mil -- 1.031 OPS (173 OPS+) 6.4 bWAR Can opt out next year 
Carlos Santana -- 3 years, 60 mil -- .776 OPS (105 OPS+) 1.7 bWAR
Yu Darvish -- 6 years, 126 mil -- 1-3, 4.95 (87 ERA+)  -0.2 bWAR
Eric Hosmer -- 8 years, 144 mil -- .720 OPS (99 OPS+) 1.4 bWAR
Wade Davis -- 4 years 52 mil -- 3-6, 46 saves 4.13  (114 ERA+) 1.1 bWAR
Lorenzo Cain -- 5 years, 80 mil -- 813 OPS (119 OPS+) 6.9 bWAR
Alex Cobb -- 4 years, 57 mil -- 5-15, 4.95 (85 ERA+) 1.1 bWAR
Gregg Holland -- 1 year, 14 mil -- 2-2. 4.66, 3 saves (80 ERA+) -0.2 bWAR  -- dude was released by the team that signed him.
Jay Bruce -- 3 years 39 mil -- .680 OPS (92 OPS+) -0.4 bWAR
Tyler Chatwood -- 3 years 38 mil -- 4-6, 5.30 (81 ERA+) 0.0 bWAR 
Lance Lynn -- 1 year, 12 mil -- 10-10 4.77 (92 ERA+) 0.8 bWAR
Brandon Morrow -- 2 years, 21 mil -- 0-0, 1.47, 22 saves (295 ERA+)1.4 bWAR -- Dude was lights out but only for 30 IP.
Addison Reed -- 2 years, 16.75 mil -- 1-6, 0 saves, 4.50 (97 ERA+), 0.1 -- wasn't used as closer

These were the bigger names last year -- other than Martinez and Cain (great value), there isn't a lot to cry over -- Arrieta wasn't bad.   If people want to look up individual players and check on who struck gold with cheap deals here's a link to last years MLBrumors' FA tracker https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018-mlb-free-agent-tracker/sort_column-amount__sort_direction-0

Let's hope the Angels avoid the landmines and find some value.

 

My problem with this type of post is that each player would have very different stats/bWAR if they were on a different team.  You can't guarantee that J.D Martinez would have been the same with a different team or that Darvish would have been hurt if he pitched for a different team.  

[Blarg]

Remember three years ago when everyone was clamoring for Heyward? He's produced about 6 WAR without being even close to league average hitting and has $106 million left on his contract. 

That year produced a bunch of high dollar free agency flops. And this year we have Machado and Harper leading the charge, albeit Machado isn't really showing any hustle. But there are going to be flops (Machado) and buyer's remorse this off season. Even through trades there could be some crash and burns or lopsided deals that burn one of the teams and they have far more data to avoid these mistakes. 

It will be entertaining, as long as it's not the Angels getting Hamilton'ed. 

[wopphil]

20 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I think we would all agree that Eppler would benefit from having a time traveling friend as it relates to free agency and the trade market.  

@Vladdylonglegs can make this happen with an introduction to his army vet friend.

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Remember three years ago when everyone was clamoring for Heyward? He's produced about 6 WAR without being even close to league average hitting and has $106 million left on his contract. 

That year produced a bunch of high dollar free agency flops. And this year we have Machado and Harper leading the charge, albeit Machado isn't really showing any hustle. But there are going to be flops (Machado) and buyer's remorse this off season. Even through trades there could be some crash and burns or lopsided deals that burn one of the teams and they have far more data to avoid these mistakes. 

It will be entertaining, as long as it's not the Angels getting Hamilton'ed. 

I wanted Heyward as well.  So far on AngelsWin I am not fairing super well in my free agents I want us to pursue.  I wanted Beltran when he went to the Mets, I wanted Scherzer when he went to the Nationals, but I also wanted Heyward and Darvish.  I remember not wanting Murphy, I was wrong there.  

If I had to choose between Harper and Machado I would choose Harper even though Machado fills a need much more on this team.  I just have really soured on the guy after seeing him not hustle during the most important games he has ever played.  Harper doesn't really fill a need, but he is young enough that they could trade Adell and get a stud in return that plays some other position.  

[Inside Pitch]

57 minutes ago, halonatic13 said:

My problem with this type of post is that each player would have very different stats/bWAR if they were on a different team.  You can't guarantee that J.D Martinez would have been the same with a different team or that Darvish would have been hurt if he pitched for a different team.  

OPS+ and ERA+ is weighted for the league.  So unless you're one of those people that believes a hitter in a stacked lineup will always be better (which has been proven false), your position doesn't really carry much weight.

I included win totals in there too and they are utterly meaningless -- I added bWAR simply because it's a basic measure people can get a gauge for..  otherwise the only thing to look at is how much and how long they signed for.   But if someone believes that JD Martinez wouldn't have been a good player somewhere else last year ... Well, not sure I can take that seriously.   Playing in Boston definitely helps him but he's been a 155 OPS+ player for 5 years now.

Nobody can predict injuries but there is no denying there were concerns about Darvish's arm prior to his being signed by the Cubs -- ditto Morrow.  Morrow was nails while healthy but he predictably broke down.    Some have said Morrow was used poorly -- but the only thing the Cubs could have done to prevent Darish breaking down would have been not to have him throw.I

Mostly this just shows how those deals have worked out for the team's that made them thus far...

Edited November 4, 2018 by Inside Pitch

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

If he did, he'd win the lotto and invite all his pals to come on a all expenses paid Surfing trip around the globe

Unless he went way back (the 90s) to the hundred year storm, and died surfing it.

Hes not gonna paddle to new zealand

[Second Base]

I saw that deal Chatwood got from the Cubs and couldn't believe the Angels weren't in on him. 

[JarsOfClay]

I wanted Cain instead of extending Upton, and I did want Hosmer but only on the condition it was 5/100. The deal the padres gave him was unbelievably stupid.

I also wanted Reed, glad we didn't get him afterall. I was adamantly against Heyward, so I'm 3/4. 

[Lou]

20 minutes ago, JarsOfClay said:

I wanted Cain instead of extending Upton, and I did want Hosmer but only on the condition it was 5/100. The deal the padres gave him was unbelievably stupid.

I also wanted Reed, glad we didn't get him afterall. I was adamantly against Heyward, so I'm 3/4. 

SD is paying him $100M for the first 5 years (+ $5M signing bonus), then $13M/yr for the final 3. Homer has an opt-out after year 5.

So, your condition wasn't really all that different. you even had a higher AAV. btw, you stated you would give him 5 years, maybe 6. I don't think you ever mentioned a dollar amount.

either way, I don't see how you can take the win for Hosmer. 

[Second Base]

I think if we are looking back, the biggest mistake I thought we made at the time was completely missing on Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre. Beltre would've been great, but Crawford would've been a big mistake.

[Revad]

3 hours ago, Second Base said:

I saw that deal Chatwood got from the Cubs and couldn't believe the Angels weren't in on him. 

I’d do a buy low on Chatwood salary dump if the Cubs would take $4-5 million of the 2019 salary.  It’s only two years with $12.5 in ‘19 and $13 in $20.  Still has that upside so I think it’s worth the gamble.

[Second Base]

34 minutes ago, Revad said:

I’d do a buy low on Chatwood salary dump if the Cubs would take $4-5 million of the 2019 salary.  It’s only two years with $12.5 in ‘19 and $13 in $20.  Still has that upside so I think it’s worth the gamble.

I dunno man. A complete loss of command of all his pitches and an inability to even get the ball over the plate. I'd almost rather there be something physically wrong in that case because they just don't know what the heck is wrong with him. That's a pretty crappy place to be in. 

[Lou]

3 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I dunno man. A complete loss of command of all his pitches and an inability to even get the ball over the plate. I'd almost rather there be something physically wrong in that case because they just don't know what the heck is wrong with him. That's a pretty crappy place to be in. 

well said.

paying a  29-yr old pitcher who is getting worse $20M for 2 years isn't a wise move. 

[Revad]

It’s risky I agree, would Happ for 2 years at $23m be better?  I just think Chatwood could turn it around, pure hunch.

[nando714]

Holland will sign with Oakland this off season and dominate 

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

I think if we are looking back, the biggest mistake I thought we made at the time was completely missing on Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre. Beltre would've been great, but Crawford would've been a big mistake.

I remember arguing with some people on here about beltre. I never in a million years expected him  to come here and put up texas numbers. But i expected his seattle numbers, maybe a bit higher.

The reason i wanted him so bad is because we didnt have any 3Bs in the system, and no good ones were scheduled to hit FA any time soon.

We definitely missed the boat on that one. Add an N for beltran, and same huge screw up.

We still need a 3B today, funny enough. C and 3B are huge needs. But i still say pitching is the biggest need. No one wants to watch another year of boring offense (when trout, ohtani and upton arent up). But we need to replace richards and ohtani, and no one is really in the pipeline to do so. Maybe canning someday, but by the time he is ready, we'll have new pitching needs.

[jsnpritchett]

2 hours ago, Lou said:

well said.

paying a  29-yr old pitcher who is getting worse $20M for 2 years isn't a wise move. 

[kevinb]

JD Martinez would have been nice. I don't care that he had an opt out, it works out for both the team and the player. Player must perform if he wants to opt out. Gives him incentive to play well. 

[Tank]

i wanted arrieta. i'd still take him.

still laughing at anyone who wanted heyward.

[nando714]

JD At 5 -110 is a steal the way he’s been playing. I still like upton. Both of them defensively aren’t gonna blow anyone’s doors off