The stupid patience thread

[floplag]

10 hours ago, Dochalo said:

If I only had one choice of competing now or competing later, I choose later.  I could be wrong but it would mean that Eppler didn't do his job, Trout didn't stay and a lot of our prospects didn't work out.  I feel pretty good about the opposite for all three of those things.  Whereas I don't have a ton of confidence that we can win a division in 2019 unless we gut the farm.  

It just depends on what two years you want to play for if you start trading prospects instead of waiting for them to develop.  Adell and Canning is a hefty price to pay for one player with two years of control and that's what Degrom or Realmuto would cost plus a couple more from our top 30.  If you're gonna do that, you'd better be right.   

 

Youre putting everything on the hopes that all of these kids develop into what you hope they will be, how often has that happened in recent memory?
If those kids dont do exactly that, were buggared long term as well as short.  Thats a gamble i cant support. 
If they do work out we deal the others, thats  a good kind of problem to have.
Again i simply dont see why it has to be one of the other, noone has yet exaplined that to me

[Stradling]

Well you either gamble on expensive free agents that prevent you from signing other players because of their cost.  You can gamble on trading prospects and hoping the players in return perform well and sign extensions.  Or you can gamble on prospects and if they aren’t what expected you wasted time, but can still spend money.  I support balance, like I do in basically everything.  

[floplag]

9 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Let’s say they very aggressively make changes to ensure they are contenders in the next 2 years. What does that cost? Giving up a lot of prospects? Signing free agents to bloated deals that will be horrible in 3 years?

Doesn’t that actually make it less appealing for Trout?

You don’t need to convince him you’re going to be good in 19-20. He has no choice where he plays in those years. You need to convince him you’re going to be good from 2021-2030. 

So, what do you suppose is the best way to do that?

It doesnt have to be such that it kills the farm. 
There are few guys out there i try to deal for, Realmuto for example.  I have no interest in using the kids to better the team, i dont think we have to, everything we need, at least for my plan, is in FA.  Im willing to give up a couple top guys to get perhaps the best C in the game, thats  a no brainer to me.  He gets expensive when Albert drops off, its a wash at worst. 
Im not interested in a trade for Gray or many of the others discussed for exactly this reason.   Save the kids, use cash, something we have, instead.  I said in another thread if there was ever a time to bust the lux tax for a couple years its now.  Not only for the overall betterment of the club but to convince Trout to stay. 
The next two years are to me critical to the future of this franchise, and people seem willing to just let them slide, i dont get it
 

[floplag]

6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Well you either gamble on expensive free agents that prevent you from signing other players because of their cost.  You can gamble on trading prospects and hoping the players in return perform well and sign extensions.  Or you can gamble on prospects and if they aren’t what expected you wasted time, but can still spend money.  I support balance, like I do in basically everything.  

Agreed, but right now, givin our roster, what is the best option?  If you had to get off the fence and pick one, what would you do?
To me its simple, spend.  Maybe make one key deal.  Harly guts the farm and puts us back in the mix.
Im just not willing to listen to anyone asking me to be patient for 2 years with a down team, not right now when the fate of Trout hangs in the balance.  If that werent on the table maybe its a different discussion but till i see that change, it has to be a concern, otherwise what are we actually waiting for? 

[Inside Pitch]

14 hours ago, floplag said:

A lot of things work, my point is that this isnt our only choice.
Winning can be sustained in a lot of ways.
Cost effective is a concern?  When did we become Tampa?
Fans connect with winning too.
I could understand this is we didnt have a choice, but we do.  If this is the path they take, throwing away 2 years of baseball and possibly Mike Trout, i cant support that.  You might as well trade him if thats your goal to compete in 21.

We could make a few key deals, compete now, let them go when its up for the kids and win not only in 21 but 19 and 20 as well.  Why does this have to be a choice?

Of course there are different ways of doing it, the point being made is that they have been sticking to a particular plan and despite the lack of results at the MLB level, it's been coming along nicely.

Also, it's not like the MLB team has been completely ignored. Since getting here, Eppler has added Upton as a long term asset, Simmons was as well.   He went three years with Cozart as well although that one has yet to pay off -- but he's been trying to add pieces while simultaneously rebuilding the foundation.  There is no reason to believe that the Angels can't add useful pieces this winter while not going apeshit on the FA market, we just have to see how this goes, which as Scotty points out... requires patience.

As far as cost effectiveness goes -- a team doesn't need to be TB to strive to be cost effective.   Throwing caution to the wind and being the West Coast Yankees didn't have anywhere near the results that Bill Stoneman's build from within mantra did -- those Angels teams were both talented and cost effective even as they ran upper echelon payrolls.  It was their payroll flexibility they made it possible for them to sweep in on Vlad, even after having committed money to Colon and others.  

Lastly -- why does it have to be compete now or just trade him?  If you're going to open by arguing there isn't only one choice then you should be open to the idea that some of the other choices may not line up with what you want.  Say what you will, they are trying to be competitive while at the same time targeting the future.   You can argue they have failed at one of those things but they have been succeeding at the other -- they can continue to try at the first while building on the latter. 

The Angels to their credit seem aware of their situation and how it compares to the teams ahead of them.   Acting prudently isn't a sign of giving up, it's a sign of having learned from their mistakes.

[Second Base]

2020 is the year for me. I don't see any reason why the Angels won't be competitive beginning that year.

1. Trout will still be here and obviously will still be in his prime.

2. Ohtani and Canning will both be part of the rotation which just adds an insane amount of upside.

3. Calhoun will be out of the picture and chances are Jo Adell will be in RF which will make the offense that much more dangerous.

4. I'm thinking Albert won't be the starting 1B any more. Eppler will intend to compete and he'll know at that point Pujols is the difference between playoffs and no playoffs, so he'll bench him. So we'll have a better starting 1B, whether that's Thaiss or a free agent, I'm not sure.

5. And I think by then, either Jahmai Jones or Luis Rengifo will have taken over 2B, or if not that will have meant Cozart played well enough to hold onto a starting role and not be shifted into a utility role. 

6. Taylor Ward or Luis Rengifo either would have taken 3B and ran with it, or we'd have signed a free agent 3B, or Cozart has done enough to keep the sleep. Either way we should be good there.

7. Ohtani probably be very comfortable at DH by then, and we'll have had time to analyze who we need as the part time DH when he's not playing. Maybe it's Albert, more it's Fernandez. I don't know. But we'll have a solution. 

In my opinion, 2020 should be the best Angels team since 2014, and should be the start of many years winning 90+ games. I think we need to be patient and save our bullets for just one more year, that's it. That will be the year the Angels show Trout the rebuild is complete, the team is great again, and this time around, not only will he be making a lot more money, but we'll have a slough of prospects ready to come in and shine. If at that point he chooses to sign elsewhere, it won't be because the Angels aren't a winner, and it won't be because the Angels didn't offer him enough money. 

[Inside Pitch]

3 hours ago, Stradling said:

For the people that are against being patient, and quite frankly I’m torn between the two, of Trout signed an extension early this off season would it make patience more acceptable?

Is it a matter of being torn or wanting them to do both -- because I think most everyone here and most of the responses agree they would like to see both.  The question is -- does doing both mean they have to go nuts in FA this year or can they make smaller less high profile moves that will help them compete?   

They have Trout, they know him better than most.  There are ways to entice him to stay.  A lot of this I think comes down to whether or not Trout has bought into what they are trying to build.   Regardless of whats been said, lets hope there has been some level of conversations with him.

[Stradling]

27 minutes ago, floplag said:

It doesnt have to be such that it kills the farm. 
There are few guys out there i try to deal for, Realmuto for example.  I have no interest in using the kids to better the team, i dont think we have to, everything we need, at least for my plan, is in FA.  Im willing to give up a couple top guys to get perhaps the best C in the game, thats  a no brainer to me.  He gets expensive when Albert drops off, its a wash at worst. 
Im not interested in a trade for Gray or many of the others discussed for exactly this reason.   Save the kids, use cash, something we have, instead.  I said in another thread if there was ever a time to bust the lux tax for a couple years its now.  Not only for the overall betterment of the club but to convince Trout to stay. 
The next two years are to me critical to the future of this franchise, and people seem willing to just let them slide, i dont get it
 

We all would want Realmuto but they turned down the #4 prospect in all of baseball which means you’re most certainly going to have to give up Adell and others to get him.   I’m not interested in that.   Not when we have so many other holes. 

[Inside Pitch]

34 minutes ago, floplag said:

Youre putting everything on the hopes that all of these kids develop into what you hope they will be, how often has that happened in recent memory?
If those kids dont do exactly that, were buggared long term as well as short.  Thats a gamble i cant support. 
If they do work out we deal the others, thats  a good kind of problem to have.
Again i simply dont see why it has to be one of the other, noone has yet exaplined that to me

You're making a salient point -- but you do realize that because they have Ohtani, Simmons, Upton, and Trout, they aren't looking for those kids they have to be stars -- all they need out of them is for them to be better than what they've been rolling out there.   If all they amount to is league average players the Angels rebuild will be a success.   The Angels aren't the Chicago White Sox pinning their hopes to Yoan Moncada to be their star player, or the Phillies with JP Crawford.   They have their stars, they just need accent pieces.

Thats not to say they shouldnt try now -- it just seems the team believes their window is longer than what some here believe it to be -- two years.

[Blarg]

4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

We all would want Realmuto but they turned down the #4 prospect in all of baseball which means you’re most certainly going to have to give up Adell and others to get him.   I’m not interested in that.   Not when we have so many other holes. 

The offer was for 3 years of player control. The Marlins wiffed on that and this year they are not getting that offer with only 2 years of player control. Adell is not on the table and won't need to be. 

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, Blarg said:

The offer was for 3 years of player control. The Marlins wiffed on that and this year they are not getting that offer with only 2 years of player control. Adell is not on the table and won't need to be. 

I get that but how much has the cost gone down?   Would it have to include Canning?  He’s what a top 50 prospect?  Is it worth that even?   With the cost of pitching today?   If you don’t include one of those then you’re looking at 4 others in our top ten I would assume.   

[Blarg]

The cost is not longer a top player in minor league baseball. It may be a combination of a highly touted player with other complementary players but the overall value of Realmoto has depreciated like any other asset. I don't have a valuation of players the Angels would be able to offer to make the deal and it still becomes a win. 

[floplag]

27 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

You're making a salient point -- but you do realize that because they have Ohtani, Simmons, Upton, and Trout, they aren't looking for those kids they have to be stars -- all they need out of them is for them to be better than what they've been rolling out there.   If all they amount to is league average players the Angels rebuild will be a success.   The Angels aren't the Chicago White Sox pinning their hopes to Yoan Moncada to be their star player, or the Phillies with JP Crawford.   They have their stars, they just need accent pieces.

Thats not to say they shouldnt try now -- it just seems the team believes their window is longer than what some here believe it to be -- two years.

Im not at all suggesting thats our only window, only that i dont want to waste those year waiting on something that may never happen. 

 

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, floplag said:

Im not at all suggesting thats our only window, only that i dont want to waste those year waiting on something that may never happen. 

 

Wasn't trying to say you were Flop, but some are acting like it's now or never...  Sorry for any confusion.

[floplag]

30 minutes ago, Stradling said:

We all would want Realmuto but they turned down the #4 prospect in all of baseball which means you’re most certainly going to have to give up Adell and others to get him.   I’m not interested in that.   Not when we have so many other holes. 

i dont recall the detail of that offer or if they were even publicly known, but just becasue they turned that down doesnt mean that much, maybe the rest was crap or lesser, maybe we could make it happen with 2-3 of our top 10-15 not named Adell... no way to know just casue they turned that down.
You may be right, im only suggesting he would be the one guy i would be willing to deal some stuff i might not want to otherwise.

[floplag]

Just now, Inside Pitch said:

Wasn't trying to say you were Flop, but some are acting like it's now or never...  Sorry for any confusion.

Well there is, and should be, a sense of urgency where Trout is concerned.  If we tank the next 2 years we also likely tank his desire to stay.   Its no now or never, its just dont waste these 2 years.

[Stradling]

I'll ask again, if Trout signed an extension early on this off season, would we still be less patient and would we be more willing to develop the way we have been?  

[Inside Pitch]

3 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I'll ask again, if Trout signed an extension early on this off season, would we still be less patient and would we be more willing to develop the way we have been?  

If Trout signs an extension at any point this offseason it means he's on board with the team is doing and it doesn't really matter what any of us dolts think.   That's all that should matter to anyone IMO.

[floplag]

18 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I'll ask again, if Trout signed an extension early on this off season, would we still be less patient and would we be more willing to develop the way we have been?  

Moreso than i am, yes, but honestly, i still dont think its something we have to do, there is no reason for it aside from financial to the front office.   Im not asking for them to go get Machado and Harper, just go get the parts to put us in the post season mix. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

@floplag I am mostly agreeing with you. We’re just talking about a matter of degree. 

Some people suggest the Angels need to go “all-in” to be great in 2019-20. I don’t think that’s possible without jeopardizing 21+.

I do think it’s possible to be a playoff caliber team in 19-20 with the right half-measures, so to speak. Find the right mid-tier free agents. Maybe make one trade that peels off a small slice of the farm system. 

Of course, if you do that wrong (Danny Espinosa and Scooter Gennett were sitting next to each other on the discount shelf in 2017), you end up still being mediocre. But you haven’t cost yourself any of the future, only the present.

If you are wrong by giving Dallas Keuchel $20M a year and he turns into a No 4 starter, that’s a much worse mistake. If you trade away a bunch of top prospects for short-term answers, that’s a costly mistake. Those mistakes are what cost you if you’re trying to build a long-term winner without unlimited resources. 

Those are the mistakes they made (hi Albert) that got them into this mess.

[tdawg87]

11 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

You don’t need to convince him you’re going to be good in 19-20. He has no choice where he plays in those years. You need to convince him you’re going to be good from 2021-2030. 

Everyone needs to read this. The Angels could completely sacrifice their future to go all out for 2019 and 2020, win back-back Division titles, lose in the first round each year, and then Trout leaves because he has 0 rings and no future with the Angels. 

Then we have no Trout and a terrible system with terrible contracts. Just imagine that for a second.

 

[Stradling]

9 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Everyone needs to read this. The Angels could completely sacrifice their future to go all out for 2019 and 2020, win back-back Division titles, lose in the first round each year, and then Trout leaves because he has 0 rings and no future with the Angels. 

Then we have no Trout and a terrible system with terrible contracts. Just imagine that for a second.

 

Look at what the Cleveland Cavaliers are right now.  

[floplag]

15 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Everyone needs to read this. The Angels could completely sacrifice their future to go all out for 2019 and 2020, win back-back Division titles, lose in the first round each year, and then Trout leaves because he has 0 rings and no future with the Angels. 

Then we have no Trout and a terrible system with terrible contracts. Just imagine that for a second.

 

Lets assume for a moment this is right, how exactly do you do that?   @Jeff FletcherWith regard to the comment about not having to prove anything for the next 2 years but convince him beyond that.

We are not a top 5 farm, not even top 10 i dont think last i checked.  Bleacher reports has us at 14, up from 19. We have 1 (Adell) tier 1 guy, one.  

The rest of what we have doesnt project to be more than average to good major leaguers, not a bunch of stars.  This is what drafting in the middle gets you.  Mediocre ML team gets you mediocre draft picks. 

There is no plan open to us that makes us the next Hou or ChiC.   So... where is all this playoff contending talent coming from? 

[Blarg]

30 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Danny Espinosa and Scooter Gennett were sitting next to each other on the discount shelf in 2017

You're just trying to make us cry. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

The other thing about this whole notion of going "all in" now to appease Trout is that it ignores the fact that, although Trout does want to win, he also wants to be paid fairly. Any money spent now on Bryce Harper or Dallas Keuchel or Craig Kimbrel is going to take away from what Trout can be paid.

The way to go is this....

"Hey Mike, we're going to give you a ton of money, which means we can't give anyone else a ton of money. But that's OK because we already have a decent core and our farm system is getting a lot better, so pretty soon we'll have a lot of awesome cheap guys (Ohtani, Adell, Canning, etc.) here playing around you and making no money. But in the meantime, we're going to be as good as we can be by getting guys like Gio Gonzalez or Daniel Murphy on short-term deals. With 3-4 of the right upgrades, and a little better luck with health, we can be a playoff team in 19 and 20, and we'll still have the core that's going to make us even better after that.

"Oh, and after you buddy Albert is gone after 2021, we'll have a bunch more money to get you a second big time guy, to go along with the cheap guys."

Edited November 4, 2018 by Jeff Fletcher