The stupid patience thread

[ten ocho recon scout]

Just now, floplag said:

It matters if those we are chasing are still ranked higher.
How do we count on our farm to make us better than them when theirs is still better?
Our 2 direct competitors in our division both have better farms, right now. 
Explain to me the logic that somehow makes us better than them in 2 years when they are better now and have a better farm?  Tell me how that happens?

Both the two teams in our division will be in completely different places in 2 years...thats how. Houston has its own window, if you havent noticed.

I saw one of your posts in a different thread. You want realmuto, moustakas and kelly. Ok, fine. They would all (moustakas is a gamble) help the 2019 club. Would we be better than houston next year? 

And would the overall org be in better shape in 2020 that way?

[Second Base]

Also, the farm ranking is an arbitrary number to say the least. We have a bunch of really good prospects. We aren't as good as the Padres, but we're much better than the Mariners and Orioles. 

We have a steady stream of prospects that will be arriving in the majors, have freed up international money since the restrictions, have established ourselves as major players on all international prospects and are drafting and developing as good as anyone in the business right now. 

The Angels farm is pretty good right now, and should remain pretty good for a very long time now.

[ten ocho recon scout]

And to clarify where i stand. Im in the patience crowds.

With that said, i would prefer we spend this year and every year up to the salary cap. The patience part is that even if we do, im not expecting the playoffs next year. 

I want them to spend for tomorrows team....with the blueprint of tomorrows team, thats been in play for the last 3 years. Not to suddenly throw out that plan and switch gears to a brand new one.

Upton is a perfect example. He didnt put us over the top. But he solved a long term problem for the next few years (bridging the gap of both teams), and still allowed us to stay with the plan, not giving anything up.

[floplag]

1 minute ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Both the two teams in our division will be in completely different places in 2 years...thats how. Houston has its own window, if you havent noticed.

I saw one of your posts in a different thread. You want realmuto, moustakas and kelly. Ok, fine. They would all (moustakas is a gamble) help the 2019 club. Would we be better than houston next year? 

And would the overall org be in better shape in 2020 that way?

And they have better guys coming up to replace their ,losses than we do so that still doesnt explain how we get better than them. 
Would we be better with that plan than we are today, damn skippy, better than Hou in 19, maybe not, better than Oak, i think so.   Guess what, that means playoffs. 
And it doesnt gut the long term pending who gets dealt... if we could do that without losing Adell, how is that a bad thing?   
If your dead set on not losing anyone then fine, as i said in that same post sign Grandal or Ramos, bring back Maldy. were still in the playoff hunt and lost nothing.

[Lou]

3 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Also, the farm ranking is an arbitrary number to say the least. We have a bunch of really good prospects. We aren't as good as the Padres, but we're much better than the Mariners and Orioles. 

by stating we have really good prospects who are much better than those of the M's and O's, aren't you proving that the rankings aren't arbitrary? 

[floplag]

5 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Also, the farm ranking is an arbitrary number to say the least. We have a bunch of really good prospects. We aren't as good as the Padres, but we're much better than the Mariners and Orioles. 

We have a steady stream of prospects that will be arriving in the majors, have freed up international money since the restrictions, have established ourselves as major players on all international prospects and are drafting and developing as good as anyone in the business right now. 

The Angels farm is pretty good right now, and should remain pretty good for a very long time now.

Were not competing with the Mariners and Orioles, were competing with Oak and Hou, which are better than us by any measure on the farm.  There is no reason logically to expect that the farm alone will improve our standings, none. 

[Second Base]

2 minutes ago, Lou said:

by stating we have really good prospects who are much better than those of the M's and O's, aren't you proving that the rankings aren't arbitrary? 

Not so much. We're not number one or number 30. Just somewhere in there, you want to assign a number, go ahead.

[Second Base]

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

Were not competing with the Mariners and Orioles, were competing with Oak and Hou, which are better than us by any measure on the farm.  There is no reason logically to expect that the farm alone will improve our standings, none. 

Not even close to true. 

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

Fine, find me ANY source that suggest we have a top 10 farm or better than Hou/Oak etc... that suggests this plan would make us a contender without some help from outside the org such as FA signings. 

18 minutes ago, floplag said:

Am i?  
I just checked BR, thats dead right for its end of 2018 rating.   only Adell is rated tier 1, followed by a group of 5 2s, and the rests are 3s. 
By definition if you draft in the middle of rounds you get middle rated talent barring someone dropping or an incredibly deep group, which most arent.

See for yourself:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2794480-re-ranking-all-30-mlb-farm-systems-at-the-end-of-2018-milb-season
In contrast everyone on SD list is 2 or higher, 6 #1s.   Tor has 2 1s, and the top 9 is all 2 or better.  Chisox have 4 tier 1s.  Oak 3 tier 1s.  Hou 3 tier 1s.
Unless a lot of these guys beat thier projections, we dont have any potential stars coming up aside from Adell, just a group of probably good major leaguers who arent likely to make any all star games.  how does that suddenly make us so competitive against teams that still have more in the pipeline than we do?   

So.. what am i wrong about?   If your going to tell me im wrong, at least explain how. 

why does it matter what an outside source ranks our farm system?  bleacher report sucks anyway.  

drafting in the middle of the first round doesn't equate to mediocre talent.  It equates to a slightly less chance of whoever you draft actually making it.  The odds decrease is decent out of the top 5 but not that big of a difference between 6-20ish.  

the reason why some would consider us to have only one elite prospect is that they're still developing.  A lot of our potential elite talent is till in the lower minors.  that's why you don't trade them away just yet.  

We've got Trout, Simmons, Upton and Ohtani.  If Adell ends up a star, rengifo/jones/fletcher good, ward avg, thaiss avg and we sign a catcher, that's one of the top offenses in all of baseball with a very reasonable payroll over the next 3-4 years.  

If Canning ends up a #2 type and Suarez a #4/5, Sandoval a #3/4 and you've got skaggs, heaney, and barria.    

there are plenty of other guys coming as well.  you can always supplement those positions with free agents and trades when.  

there are no farm systems that are likely to produce 'a bunch of stars'.  

the most successful teams over a long period are such because they develop their farm and those guys fill the lineup with cheap talent while you fill in the rest with  others. 

you're asking them to force the issue which almost never works.   

 

 

 

 

[Lou]

8 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Not so much. We're not number one or number 30. Just somewhere in there, you want to assign a number, go ahead.

I don't think you know what the word arbitrary means. 

[floplag]

8 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

why does it matter what an outside source ranks our farm system?  bleacher report sucks anyway.  

drafting in the middle of the first round doesn't equate to mediocre talent.  It equates to a slightly less chance of whoever you draft actually making it.  The odds decrease is decent out of the top 5 but not that big of a difference between 6-20ish.  

the reason why some would consider us to have only one elite prospect is that they're still developing.  A lot of our potential elite talent is till in the lower minors.  that's why you don't trade them away just yet.  

We've got Trout, Simmons, Upton and Ohtani.  If Adell ends up a star, rengifo/jones/fletcher good, ward avg, thaiss avg and we sign a catcher, that's one of the top offenses in all of baseball with a very reasonable payroll over the next 3-4 years.  

If Canning ends up a #2 type and Suarez a #4/5, Sandoval a #3/4 and you've got skaggs, heaney, and barria.    

there are plenty of other guys coming as well.  you can always supplement those positions with free agents and trades when.  

there are no farm systems that are likely to produce 'a bunch of stars'.  

the most successful teams over a long period are such because they develop their farm and those guys fill the lineup with cheap talent while you fill in the rest with  others. 

you're asking them to force the issue which almost never works.   

 

 

 

 

If if if, what IF they dont?  Where does that leave us?
Your argument about prospects is true of every org, but you know what, guys that know FAR more about this than either of us, that get paid to rate these things, say the other guys have more in that elite conversation than we do.
Again im not suggesting we go full DiPoto and gut the farm by any means, only that there are guys I would be willing to trade some of those chips for.  I dont know why everything here seems to have to be extremes.   
Lets say we can swing a deal for an impact player based around Jones and Saurez for example, does losing Jones hurt us really?  We already have a young 2B in Fletcher whose shown himself ML ready, we have Rengifo coming up actually sooner than Jones is projected, hes the definition of expendable and has value right now.   Miami has one highly rated 2B in its pipeline and he rated lower than Jones at AAA, it could work.   WE could lose some of these parts without it killing our future.
Im not asking them to force anything, im asking them to make a legit effort to win at the ML level without throwing away 2 years of Trout, is that such a terrible thing?. 

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, floplag said:

If if if, what IF they dont?  Where does that leave us?
Your argument about prospects is true of every org, but you know what, guys that know FAR more about this than either of us, that get paid to rate these things, say the other guys have more in that elite conversation than we do.
Again im not suggesting we go full DiPoto and gut the farm by any means, only that there are guys I would be willing to trade some of those chips for.  I dont know why everything here seems to have to be extremes.   
Lets say we can swing a deal for an impact player based around Jones and Saurez for example, does losing Jones hurt us really?  We already have a young 2B in Fletcher whose shown himself ML ready, we have Rengifo coming up actually sooner than Jones is projected, hes the definition of expendable and has value right now.   Miami has one highly rated 2B in its pipeline and he rated lower than Jones at AAA, it could work.   WE could lose some of these parts without it killing our future.
Im not asking them to force anything, im asking them to make a legit effort to win at the ML level without throwing away 2 years of Trout, is that such a terrible thing?. 

you're not getting Realmuto for that.  that's my point.  You want Realmuto, it's going to cost Adell, Canning and more.  If we can get him for Jones and Suarez then fine.  

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

you're not getting Realmuto for that.  that's my point.  You want Realmuto, it's going to cost Adell, Canning and more.  If we can get him for Jones and Suarez then fine.  

You dont know that anymore than i do, only 2 years left now, not three, and hes made it public he wont come back, they wont get what they would have gotten a year ago at this point and they didnt even get it then so, meh.   Might take more than Jones Suarez of course i was just tossing names other than Adell.
However, lets assume you are right, then fine, walk away.. so sign Grandal or Ramos or even bring back Maldonado and upgrade elsewhere.   I might actually prefer Maldonado to Ramos if im being honest assuming we got more offense elsewhere. 

[tdawg87]

I think we can get away with not giving up Adell for Realmuto but Marsh and Canning are probably certain.

[floplag]

10 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I think we can get away with not giving up Adell for Realmuto but Marsh and Canning are probably certain.

ok, would you do that?

 

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

Were not competing with the Mariners and Orioles, were competing with Oak and Hou, which are better than us by any measure on the farm.  There is no reason logically to expect that the farm alone will improve our standings, none. 

I personally don’t think Oakland is better than us at the major league level.  I think they had one of those years where they had an amazing year that defies logic.  They are losing their starting. 2nd baseman, who provided them with a 5 WAR season last year.  They had an amazing pen and we all know how volatile a pen can be from one year to the next.  

As it relates to Houston, they are amazing, but at some point, and we are seeing it start this year, they won’t be able to keep everyone.  Also as you have success you start to draft later, which as you stated mean you aren’t getting the same talent as they would have gotten at drafting in the top five for five years.  

[Tank]

4 hours ago, floplag said:

Well there is, and should be, a sense of urgency where Trout is concerned.  If we tank the next 2 years we also likely tank his desire to stay.   Its no now or never, its just dont waste these 2 years.

I think if the halos make positive growth and improvements over these next two years and become a playoff team, and if Trout likes the coach and his vision for the team, I don't think it'll be tough to re-sign him. 

[Stradling]

20 minutes ago, floplag said:

ok, would you do that?

 

I don’t know if I give up Canning, because if he is a #2 then you have that for 6 years, and at a controlled price.  We all know how expensive pitching is and we saw how much lack of depth affects the end of the season record.  

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

I don’t know if I give up Canning, because if he is a #2 then you have that for 6 years, and at a controlled price.  We all know how expensive pitching is and we saw how much lack of depth affects the end of the season record.  

What if hes not a #2 and you pass on it?   I would argue depth was the one thing we did have considering we were down to our 12th-14th SP, no one has that much depth  

[Stradling]

Just now, floplag said:

What if hes not a #2 and you pass on it?   I would argue depth was the one thing we did have considering we were down to our 12th-14th SP, no one has that much depth  

What if Realmuto struggles to adjust for one season and then leaves after the following season because he is only under control for 2 years?  As for depth, that is why I tagged you in that other thread about how decimated our starters were and how bad the actual performance was.  Without depth we have to pay $9-10 million for a below average free agent because we don’t have in house replacements.  

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

What if Realmuto struggles to adjust for one season and then leaves after the following season because he is only under control for 2 years?  As for depth, that is why I tagged you in that other thread about how decimated our starters were and how bad the actual performance was.  Without depth we have to pay $9-10 million for a below average free agent because we don’t have in house replacements.  

How do you define depth though... most say you need 7 maybe 8 SP deep,,, we went to 12-14.  How many do you want?

[Stradling]

Just now, floplag said:

How do you define depth though... most say you need 7 maybe 8 SP deep,,, we went to 12-14.  How many do you want?

Well Scioscia always preached 10 so I would go with 10-12.  

[floplag]

4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Well Scioscia always preached 10 so I would go with 10-12.  

ok, im not trying to be sarcastic, but clearly we had that so, why was it a problem?
I get that many of them werent Cy candidates, but most people dont have that or anything near it from 6-10 

[Second Base]

If the Marlins wouldn't do Robles for Realmuto, I see no reason why they'd do Marsh and a Canning for him. Unless you include Adell, you aren't getting him and since the Angels aren't one Realmuto away from overtaking Houston, it would be downright foolish of them to abandon their philosophy that has built what will be a perennial contender in order to acquire two years of a good starting catcher. 

Wrong price at the wrong time.

This is why we need to be patient. There is a plan, it's been set in motion, just stick to it and we'll be fine, 

[Lou]

1 minute ago, floplag said:

ok, im not trying to be sarcastic, but clearly we had that so, why was it a problem?

i would say the problem was that there's a difference between depth and bodies.