MLBTR Offseason Outlook

[Mark68]

Here's the MLB Trade Rumors Offseason Outlook for the Angels:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/offseason-outlook-los-angeles-angels-5.html

"Turning back to the roster, Trout is coming off yet another superlative season, hitting .312/.460/.628 with 39 homers over 608 PA and contributing 9.8 fWAR to the Angels’ cumulative 24.4 fWAR for position players.  Of the club’s returning players, Andrelton Simmons (5.5 fWAR), Justin Upton (3.1 fWAR), Shohei Ohtani (2.8 fWAR only as a DH), and rookie David Fletcher (1.9 fWAR) combined with Trout for 23.1 fWAR, giving you some idea of how top-heavy the production was within the Angels’ lineup.  The team didn’t receive much from the catcher position (Martin Maldonado was traded to the Astros in July), and Kole Calhoun, Zack Cozart, and Albert Pujols were all replacement-level or worse in 2018."

"Even a moderate amount of pitching stability could’ve helped the Angels at least vie for a postseason berth in each of the last two seasons, as the team is coming off consecutive 80-82 records.  With better health and another solid arm or two, it isn’t a stretch to imagine the Angels getting back into contention, considering that world-class building blocks like Trout, Simmons, Upton, and (even as only a hitter) Ohtani are already in place."

[Angel Oracle]

Cozart needs to step up in 2019, case closed.  Kole needs to stop being Cold too many months, case closed.  Pujols, already discussed up and down, just retire a year from now.  

[Make Angels Great Again]

Trout/Ohtani/Upton could be quite the powerful trio over a full season next year.

[Mark68]

I still don't expect Ohtani to get much more than 400 PAs next year, as we're not sure what his recovery timeline will be, how much of spring training he'd lose, and because they'll still have to find DH time for Pujols.

[Pancake Bear]

13 minutes ago, Mark68 said:

I still don't expect Ohtani to get much more than 400 PAs next year, as we're not sure what his recovery timeline will be, how much of spring training he'd lose, and because they'll still have to find DH time for Pujols.

There’s certainly the possibility you’re correct - kind of like people predicting a roll of snake eyes - but there’s no information I’ve seen anywhere that he’ll have effective the same amount of AB’s next year as he did this year. 500-550 is probably the most likely. But who knows with recovery - your snake eyes prediction may come true. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

Trout/Ohtani/Upton could be quite the powerful trio over a full season next year.

Yeah....they can be. The problem is they obviously will fail more often than come through (like every other player).

The problem the last few years is no lineup depth. If trout or someone has a good at bat, home run or whatever, good to go. Its when they fail to....and then 2 innings or so before they come up again thats the problem.

If the choice was trout upton and ohtani plus duds in the rest, vs say upton plus 8 guys who are all at least average....you wonder what team would score more.

[Second Base]

I know I'm in the minority here, but I still think the offense is going to end up being the bigger problem in the future than the pitching.  I'm not questioning we need pitching, but I think the problem is more related to upside, not depth.  The Angels seem to be targeting guys toward the front of the rotation more than anything I think. 

But the offense?  We're currently below average at catcher, first base, second base, third base and right field.  And that problem doesn't figure to solve itself for at least another two years at minimum.  More like three or four years.  And if Mike Trout leaves after 2020?  Suddenly, this becomes a very permanent problem. 

So yeah, maybe spend 15 million a year on Eovaldi.  That sounds good to me because you put him in a rotation with Ohtani, Canning, Heaney and Skaggs in 2020 and we're looking golden.  

But with that other 15 million, I'd be spending offensive upgrades. 

[Angelsjunky]

I agree, Scotty. The priorities should be:

1) Get more out of C, 1B, 2B, 3B, and RF - in some form or fashion.  At 3B you hope for the best with Cozart/Ward; at 2B you've got Fletcher/Rengifo; in RF you've got Calhoun/Hermosillo, even maybe Adell later on; at C no one, at 1B no one good (Pujols/Fernandez/Walsh/Thaiss?). So i think you look to upgrade at C, hope for the best at 2B-3B-RF, and try to do something about 1B. 

2) A good to very good starter. I agree the Angels have depth covered, but they need a frontline starter. Obviously those don't go on trees, but if they can't get Corbin I like Eovaldi as an option.

3) Trim the fat in the bullpen, go after someone like Familia. The bullpen was better in the second half, but still mostly lacking top-end talent - like the rotation.

 

 

[DCAngelsFan]

57 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I know I'm in the minority here, but I still think the offense is going to end up being the bigger problem in the future than the pitching. 

 

The "future" is a bit hard to project for both  - but I have a lot of sympathy for what you're saying  -  even if we'd had some "pitching stability",  even if we got to the playoffs, we have terrible lineup depth 1-9, and we'd be bounced quickly.

I think the superlative stats of Mike and Shohei hide to a certain extent how bad most of the rest of the lineup was (Upton and Simmons notwithstanding.)

But I'm not seeing a whole lot of position players in the FA market that I'd want - McCutchen for RF would be nice - but that leaves 3B, 2B, and C to fill.   (Jones is what, 2020?)  

 

 

[totdprods]

My shopping list remains ranked:

• 1. Trade for a buy-low #4 SP with #2 potential (i.e., Urena, Bundy, Junis, Teheran)
• 2. Sign a vet SP to eat up innings (i.e., Sabathia, Lynn, Hellickson, Shields, Holland, Sanchez, Colon)
• 3. Sign a vet RP (preferably Robertson, but open to just about anyone)
• 4. Snag an bat-first/OBP heavy infielder with capability to play multiple positions, even better if some OF 
• 5. Swing a minor deal for a C with some MLB experiences 

[CDiaz27?]

Read an interesting reply in the article, it was a proposed trade of Simmons for the Cardinals Carlos Martinez, Angels need a frontline starter and Cardinals need defense. Thought it was a good move since we have Rengifo knocking on the door in 2019

[wopphil]

5 hours ago, totdprods said:

My shopping list remains ranked:

• 1. Trade for a buy-low #4 SP with #2 potential (i.e., Urena, Bundy, Junis, Teheran)
• 2. Sign a vet SP to eat up innings (i.e., Sabathia, Lynn, Hellickson, Shields, Holland, Sanchez, Colon)
• 3. Sign a vet RP (preferably Robertson, but open to just about anyone)
• 4. Snag an bat-first/OBP heavy infielder with capability to play multiple positions, even better if some OF 
• 5. Swing a minor deal for a C with some MLB experiences 

I like this a lot. I'd suggest that we could actually sign two innings eater types rather than sign one and trade for one (unless the trade is for the purpose of saving significant money). I like Happ, Sabathia, Eovaldi and Gonzalez.

Robertson would be great if the price is right. Andrew Miller might still have a lot of upside. 

And Josh Donaldson, if healthy, could solve third and cover first when necessary.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Whats everyone's take on joe kelly?

[Tank]

1 hour ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Whats everyone's take on joe kelly?

Looks good. I'd give him a call.

[CDiaz27?]

1 hour ago, Tank said:

Looks good. I'd give him a call.

And convert him to a starter again 

[vladdy#27]

11 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

I know I'm in the minority here, but I still think the offense is going to end up being the bigger problem in the future than the pitching.  I'm not questioning we need pitching, but I think the problem is more related to upside, not depth.  The Angels seem to be targeting guys toward the front of the rotation more than anything I think. 

But the offense?  We're currently below average at catcher, first base, second base, third base and right field.  And that problem doesn't figure to solve itself for at least another two years at minimum.  More like three or four years.  And if Mike Trout leaves after 2020?  Suddenly, this becomes a very permanent problem. 

So yeah, maybe spend 15 million a year on Eovaldi.  That sounds good to me because you put him in a rotation with Ohtani, Canning, Heaney and Skaggs in 2020 and we're looking golden.  

But with that other 15 million, I'd be spending offensive upgrades. 

I agree with this as well.

I don't have much faith in Cozart. 2017 was clearly an outlier for him. His numbers in an injury shortened 2018 were pretty close to his career numbers (taking away his 2017 season) from 2011-2016. In 2018 he had a .296 OBP (.289), .362 SLG (.385), 82 OPS+ (82). Obviously his value is going to come from his glove, but you can only have so many players like that on one team. 
Fletcher is another great defender, but not someone we can rely on offensively. Outside of playing in Utah he has only posted an OPS over .700 twice in the minor leagues, 135 PA back in 2015 in Single-A (.717 OPS) and in 83 PA back in 2016 in Double-A (.700 OPS). Once again there's value in the glove, but expecting an OPS close to .700 is asking a lot and not likely to happen.
Pujols is not good and has done nothing but hurt this team for the last 2-3 years. Expecting anything else is just foolish. As long as he has a starting spot it's hard to believe the Angels are serious about winning. This is probably the easiest and cheapest upgrade we could make that would have a big impact.
I feel the most optimistic about Calhoun. He was terrible to start the year. He was grounding out a lot more than he normally does and he stopped hitting as many line drives and pop flies. He corrected whatever issue he had and finished his last 350 PA better than his career averages. On a good team with playoff aspirations Calhoun shouldn't be your 4th or 5th best hitter. He should be more in the range of 6th or 7th, pair that with his good defense and he is a great player to have.
Catcher is a position that is no doubt going to be addressed. There's no way we head into 2019 with a Briceno/Arcia duo. 

We need to sign/trade for a stop gap for 2019 that can play 2B or 3B and one of Cozart/Fletcher will be the utility infielder.
Sign/trade for someone that takes AB away from Pujols
Sign/trade for a starting catcher
1. SS Simmons 2. CF Trout 3. DH Ohtani 4. LF Upton 5. 1B FA/Trade 6. 2B/3B FA/Trade 7. RF Calhoun 8. C FA/Trade 9. Cozart/Fletcher
Sign/Trade for a starting pitcher
And I'd probably leave the bullpen alone for now. Eppler seems to do a good job of finding pieces. If we're in the race come trade deadline you can think about making a move to upgrade here. I don't think we're at a point where spending resources on a bullpen is a priority. 

[ScruffytheJanitor]

It's kind of funny; an upgrade at 2nd and would be huge, but the upgrade required for each (in terms of production) really isn't that massive. If we could just get to average at both spots, that would be massive.

This is why I think we go for the "trade and hope" route for the infield. I expect us to target a solid, dependable option via trade, then hope that Cozart and Fletcher can combine to be something more.

The wild card here is a trade. If we can somehow package Cozart or Calhoun while ALSO filling multiple holes, we may be able to kill two birds with one stone-- and have enough left over to upgrade the rotation.

[floplag]

18 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I agree, Scotty. The priorities should be:

1) Get more out of C, 1B, 2B, 3B, and RF - in some form or fashion.  At 3B you hope for the best with Cozart/Ward; at 2B you've got Fletcher/Rengifo; in RF you've got Calhoun/Hermosillo, even maybe Adell later on; at C no one, at 1B no one good (Pujols/Fernandez/Walsh/Thaiss?). So i think you look to upgrade at C, hope for the best at 2B-3B-RF, and try to do something about 1B. 

2) A good to very good starter. I agree the Angels have depth covered, but they need a frontline starter. Obviously those don't go on trees, but if they can't get Corbin I like Eovaldi as an option.

3) Trim the fat in the bullpen, go after someone like Familia. The bullpen was better in the second half, but still mostly lacking top-end talent - like the rotation.

 

 

 

18 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

I know I'm in the minority here, but I still think the offense is going to end up being the bigger problem in the future than the pitching.  I'm not questioning we need pitching, but I think the problem is more related to upside, not depth.  The Angels seem to be targeting guys toward the front of the rotation more than anything I think. 

But the offense?  We're currently below average at catcher, first base, second base, third base and right field.  And that problem doesn't figure to solve itself for at least another two years at minimum.  More like three or four years.  And if Mike Trout leaves after 2020?  Suddenly, this becomes a very permanent problem. 

So yeah, maybe spend 15 million a year on Eovaldi.  That sounds good to me because you put him in a rotation with Ohtani, Canning, Heaney and Skaggs in 2020 and we're looking golden.  

But with that other 15 million, I'd be spending offensive upgrades. 

Agreed on both, but its funny how people seem scared to voice this as the cool kids here are all about pitching and conventional baseball wisdom that starters make more difference than anything else, which with todays modern metrics, bullpen games, and 2 inning "starters" that all seems kinda odd to me.

Ive said many times i think we have enough pitching depth that we would be OK if we fixed the offense and got an lock down pen to shorten games.  If this post season has proved anything to me its that aces arent guarantees.

It doesnt matter really the consensus and sound bites seem to be all about starting pitching, so we can expect few offensive additions, maybe a catcher as that seems somewhat obvious, but the rest will come from within.  And the build a pen from clean peanuts plan will continue.  At least thats whats being said publicly so well see where it goes.

[Stradling]

The cool kids are echoing what Eppler and Arte have said is the priority this off season.  I want something that isn’t possible, stability in the rotation, a lead off hitter, followed by quality interchangeable parts on offense.

[Angel Oracle]

13 hours ago, CDiaz27 said:

Read an interesting reply in the article, it was a proposed trade of Simmons for the Cardinals Carlos Martinez, Angels need a frontline starter and Cardinals need defense. Thought it was a good move since we have Rengifo knocking on the door in 2019

Simba is a franchise type leader in the INF.   Untouchable

Plus Martinez isn't a #1 starter, and maybe is a #2 starter.     His ERA/WHIP since 2015 in the NL = #2/#3 starter.   And he's only 2 years younger than Simba.    His one big thing is 3 years of control plus two team option seasons. 

[Angel Oracle]

7 hours ago, CDiaz27 said:

And convert him to a starter again 

I'd rather use Kelly's stuff as a late innings guy.

[jgimondo]

Bring Kelly home.

[Second Base]

I think I should clarify too, that while I believe the bigger need is quite clearly offense, I do believe there is hope.  If we use a very general measurement and say that our prospects will be good major league bats in their second full major league season, we can develop a very general timeline for when these "fixes" are arriving for the offense.  

For example, we need an offensive upgrade in RF.  If we figure that Jo Adell arrives in 2020, that means we'll have a good offensive RF in 2021.  That's a full two seasons away.  I'll give the same timeline to Rengifo or Jones at 2B, so that position should be above average again in 2021, two years away.  At third base, I suppose it really depends on if you buy Taylor Ward as a legit major leaguer.  I do, but I think that learning curve is going to take all of 2019 and part of 2020.  So we're looking at a year and a half before 3B is solved.  

Catcher and first base are a bit harder to project.  We don't really have any catching prospects that are knocking on the door and have the bat to believe in.  And at first base we've got a couple of options in Fernandez, Thaiss and Walsh, but you have to figure Fernandez is already 30 and his skill set probably won't improve by leaps and bounds, but he's also better than he's shown because he's only received sporadic AB's.  But also complicating this is of course, Pujols.  Will they keep running him out their at 1B and willingly block better options?  

So end result, I think the offense needs options that are going to help them the next two years, or they need to bring in other players that will help pick up the slack while guys like Ward, Jones, Rengifo and Adell are all going through the inevitable growing pains of major league hitting. 

[Docwaukee]

I think people would be massively frustrate with Joe Kelly.  Walk rate in the mid 4's.  Has never had the results you'd expect with his stuff.  I think someone is going to overpay him because they're dreaming on that velo.  Like a 2/18 or 3/24 type deal.  Don't think I'd be happy about that unless the Halos see something they can fix.  

I don't know if I'm one of the cool kids but I want offensive improvements as well.  I just know it's unrealistic to think that Cozart isn't going to start at 2b or 3b with his 12.7m salary.  I also think there's almost zero chance of a RF upgrade when we've got Adell a year away and Kole under contract for 10.5 mil plus a 1m buyout for 2020.  So that realistically leaves 3b, C and 1b.  

But you can't ignore the rotation.  Heaney, Skaggs and Barria are a decent start.  I think Pena and Shoe will make considerable contributions in 2019.  I like the depth of Trop, Canning and Suarez.  Collectively though, that rotation is thin and on top of it, there's a lot of injury history you can't ignore.  Plus, there's no ace which I'm ok with.  Teams have proven that you can win without an ace or lose with one.  

The bullpen is somewhat of a mystery yet closer to being solved than any other area and we know that Eppler isn't likely to allocate resources to it.  I think we can assume it's an area where any targets will be on the waiver wire or as minor league free agents.  Maybe 2-3 mil at most.  

So where do we want to use our bullets in 2019?  Let me preface that by saying I don't think we're ready to make a move next year.  So whatever we do should be in mind of further out. Meaning we shouldn't spend long term dollars or prospect currency for short term gain.  

My bullets, in order of priority, would go to the following:

1. Rotation depth - we aren't good enough to justify the acquisition of a top of the rotation starter that we'd control for 2 years.  So grabbing at least one and possibly two guys that can fill out the middle of the rotation and actually stay on the mound for more than 100 innings would be big.  It would create a level of consistency that we haven't had for awhile and take pressure off the bullpen.  

2.  A bat that can play 1b, 3b and maybe the OF.  We aren't going to get a starting 1b man because of the whole Albert thing.  But someone who can end up with about 400-500 at bats and be a significant offensive contributor would be a major help to this team.  

3.  An offensive upgrade at catcher.  Realmuto is not the answer in my opinion.  He's just not controlled long enough to justify the cost of acquisition.  Grandal and Ramos are on the wrong side of 30 and unlikely to continue as everyday backstops.  But they can both play 1b and potentially solve #2 to some degree as well.  I don't think we'll have the money to make this happen though after addressing the rotation.  

4.  Some other short term solution for 2b/3b that would move Fletcher into a util role.  

5.  A long term solution at 3b or C that would require giving up substantial prospect currency.  I doubt we could get what we want for what we'd be willing to spend in prospects.  Unless we were able to get creative with the rotation and make either Heaney or Skaggs available in trade which is highly unlikely.  

Oh, and if Trout leaves after 2020, the entire game plan changes in that it probably moves our window back by 3-4 years at least unless we can get a prospect haul for him at the 2020 deadline.  

[Second Base]

6 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I think people would be massively frustrate with Joe Kelly.  Walk rate in the mid 4's.  Has never had the results you'd expect with his stuff.  I think someone is going to overpay him because they're dreaming on that velo.  Like a 2/18 or 3/24 type deal.  Don't think I'd be happy about that unless the Halos see something they can fix.  

I don't know if I'm one of the cool kids but I want offensive improvements as well.  I just know it's unrealistic to think that Cozart isn't going to start at 2b or 3b with his 12.7m salary.  I also think there's almost zero chance of a RF upgrade when we've got Adell a year away and Kole under contract for 10.5 mil plus a 1m buyout for 2020.  So that realistically leaves 3b, C and 1b.  

But you can't ignore the rotation.  Heaney, Skaggs and Barria are a decent start.  I think Pena and Shoe will make considerable contributions in 2019.  I like the depth of Trop, Canning and Suarez.  Collectively though, that rotation is thin and on top of it, there's a lot of injury history you can't ignore.  Plus, there's no ace which I'm ok with.  Teams have proven that you can win without an ace or lose with one.  

The bullpen is somewhat of a mystery yet closer to being solved than any other area and we know that Eppler isn't likely to allocate resources to it.  I think we can assume it's an area where any targets will be on the waiver wire or as minor league free agents.  Maybe 2-3 mil at most.  

So where do we want to use our bullets in 2019?  Let me preface that by saying I don't think we're ready to make a move next year.  So whatever we do should be in mind of further out. Meaning we shouldn't spend long term dollars or prospect currency for short term gain.  

My bullets, in order of priority, would go to the following:

1. Rotation depth - we aren't good enough to justify the acquisition of a top of the rotation starter that we'd control for 2 years.  So grabbing at least one and possibly two guys that can fill out the middle of the rotation and actually stay on the mound for more than 100 innings would be big.  It would create a level of consistency that we haven't had for awhile and take pressure off the bullpen.  

2.  A bat that can play 1b, 3b and maybe the OF.  We aren't going to get a starting 1b man because of the whole Albert thing.  But someone who can end up with about 400-500 at bats and be a significant offensive contributor would be a major help to this team.  

3.  An offensive upgrade at catcher.  Realmuto is not the answer in my opinion.  He's just not controlled long enough to justify the cost of acquisition.  Grandal and Ramos are on the wrong side of 30 and unlikely to continue as everyday backstops.  But they can both play 1b and potentially solve #2 to some degree as well.  I don't think we'll have the money to make this happen though after addressing the rotation.  

4.  Some other short term solution for 2b/3b that would move Fletcher into a util role.  

5.  A long term solution at 3b or C that would require giving up substantial prospect currency.  I doubt we could get what we want for what we'd be willing to spend in prospects.  Unless we were able to get creative with the rotation and make either Heaney or Skaggs available in trade which is highly unlikely.  

Oh, and if Trout leaves after 2020, the entire game plan changes in that it probably moves our window back by 3-4 years at least unless we can get a prospect haul for him at the 2020 deadline.  

I don't think Trout leaves, but if he does, it will be interesting ot see how Eppler responds.  Will they use the freed up money to sign another superstar to try and replace some of that production, or will they use their OF depth (Adell, Marsh, Adams) to replace him internally and sort of spread that money around to bring in a few different decent players.