Bullpen Volatility 101...

[Inside Pitch]

It's real and sometimes it's ridiculous...

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23781702/the-cleveland-indians-bullpen-proves-baseball-gods-cruel

So let's just recap: Cleveland had one of the best bullpens ever last season. The Indians brought most of it back. They have one of the worst bullpens ever this season. 

[Dick B Back]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

It's real and sometimes it's ridiculous...

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23781702/the-cleveland-indians-bullpen-proves-baseball-gods-cruel

So let's just recap: Cleveland had one of the best bullpens ever last season. The Indians brought most of it back. They have one of the worst bullpens ever this season. 

Prime.

[Waybackman]

Only Valbuena could ruin this rally.

[tdawg87]

11 minutes ago, Waybackman said:

Only Valbuena could ruin this rally.

Are you a real person

[Lou]

lol

[T.G.]

Trying to build a bullpen is like trying to build a house of cards during a hurricane.

[Mark68]

Bullpen Volatility 101:

 

Bullpens are volatile.*

 

(*As with any rule, there are exceptions.)

 

End of lesson.

[Angel Oracle]

Weren't relievers more reliable up through the 2000s?    If so, what has caused this volatility?    Increased emphasis on the BB and HR?    

[T.G.]

It just seems like such a crap shoot.  Some really good relief guys fall off a cliff after a good season.  Seems like guys who have a long career as closers are harder to find.  It has be every GM's nightmare...

[Mark68]

16 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Weren't relievers more reliable up through the 2000s?    If so, what has caused this volatility?    Increased emphasis on the BB and HR?    

Tommy John. It's all his fault.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

On 6/16/2018 at 1:00 PM, Inside Pitch said:

So let's just recap: Cleveland had one of the best bullpens ever last season. The Indians brought most of it back. They have one of the worst bullpens ever this season. 

This demonstrates what an inexact science that building (or retaining) a bullpen is. I can't figure it out, and I'm sure that their GM is at a loss.

[Jeff Fletcher]

Relievers become relievers because they don’t have the tools to be starters. They aren’t as good. Period. 

So you start with that. 

Then you put them in high visibility, small sample size situations, and their highs and lows are maximized. 

If an everyday player has a span of 15 PAs in which he’s not good or a starter isn’t good over a 15 BF stretch, that’s just a blip. 

If it happens to a reliever, it could be 3 blown saves and the end of the world. 

Also, if a reliever comes with a guy on base and allows a blooper to fall in (Bedrosian on Sunday), it’s also the end of the world. 

Relievers also never get bullpen sessions to work on things between outings, like starters do, so it’s harder for them to correct issues. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

Also, one time a GM told me, only half joking, that the best way to turn a bad bullpen into a good bullpen would be to bring back all the exact same pitchers. 

[Dick B Back]

45 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Relievers become relievers because they don’t have the tools to be starters. They aren’t as good. Period. 

So you start with that. 

Then you put them in high visibility, small sample size situations, and their highs and lows are maximized. 

If an everyday player has a span of 15 PAs in which he’s not good or a starter isn’t good over a 15 BF stretch, that’s just a blip. 

If it happens to a reliever, it could be 3 blown saves and the end of the world. 

Also, if a reliever comes with a guy on base and allows a blooper to fall in (Bedrosian on Sunday), it’s also the end of the world. 

Relievers also never get bullpen sessions to work on things between outings, like starters do, so it’s harder for them to correct issues. 

There should be a place on AW that has all of Jeff’s Baseball 101 posts. These are insider, logic based write-ups written at a level even the biggest knucklehead should be able to understand.

[Stradling]

7 hours ago, Mark68 said:

Bullpen Volatility 101:

 

Bullpens are volatile.*

 

(*As with any rule, there are exceptions.)

 

End of lesson.

Yep, now predict which ones.  

[Griffey's Corner]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Also, one time a GM told me, only half joking, that the best way to turn a bad bullpen into a good bullpen would be to bring back all the exact same pitchers. 

To a large extent everything in baseball is volatile. Overall I think Eppler has done a really good job. And my gut feeling is he works extremely long hours leaving no stone uncovered. That being said you can take what Fletcher said and also say that you can take a good Angels bullpen in 2017 and therefore there is a very good chance it will be bad in 2018.... just reverting to the mean.

 

1. They were never that good to begin with.

2. None of them had no great track record.

3. The best RP was Petit who they chose not to bring back because he wanted half of what Valbuena receives in salary.

4. Eppler so far has shown not to put a lot of emphasis or importance in the bullpen.

5. The results speak for themselves. 15 blown saves..... even with just 5 games turning from a loss to a win they would be 44-30..... on pace for 96-66... 97-65 record. 

6. Eppler knows what Fletcher knows and the odds of them being good 2 years in a row is extremely unlikely.... so all the more the crime to stand pat and do very little in this off season. He did add Jim Johnson and his 5.56 NL ERA.

 

Even with all the injuries, even with all the bad luck, even with all the offensive shortcomings.... a lock down bullpen would have this whole season turning out a lot differently. Of all the places to add to the talent level on a team the  bullpen is the cheapest & easiest way to go..... and even than he did not. 

 

There is a lot of relievers who are very consistent year in year out.... in the 10 years since Darren O'Day was an Angel.... and the Angels got rid of him.... I think twice..... O'Day in 9 of those 10 seasons has had an ERA of 3.77 or lower. Career ERA of 2.54.

 

To say the bullpens in baseball are volatile is true..... but so is hitting and so is starting pitching. 

 

Before everyone freaks out and disagrees just remember all of us casual baseball fans were screaming this winter to bolster the bullpen. All of us casual fans turned out to be correct.... How could the Angels brass not see what we did and see the obvious?

 

[tomsred]

1 hour ago, Griffey's Corner said:

To a large extent everything in baseball is volatile. Overall I think Eppler has done a really good job. And my gut feeling is he works extremely long hours leaving no stone uncovered. That being said you can take what Fletcher said and also say that you can take a good Angels bullpen in 2017 and therefore there is a very good chance it will be bad in 2018.... just reverting to the mean.

 

1. They were never that good to begin with.

2. None of them had no great track record.

3. The best RP was Petit who they chose not to bring back because he wanted half of what Valbuena receives in salary.

4. Eppler so far has shown not to put a lot of emphasis or importance in the bullpen.

5. The results speak for themselves. 15 blown saves..... even with just 5 games turning from a loss to a win they would be 44-30..... on pace for 96-66... 97-65 record. 

6. Eppler knows what Fletcher knows and the odds of them being good 2 years in a row is extremely unlikely.... so all the more the crime to stand pat and do very little in this off season. He did add Jim Johnson and his 5.56 NL ERA.

 

Even with all the injuries, even with all the bad luck, even with all the offensive shortcomings.... a lock down bullpen would have this whole season turning out a lot differently. Of all the places to add to the talent level on a team the  bullpen is the cheapest & easiest way to go..... and even than he did not. 

 

There is a lot of relievers who are very consistent year in year out.... in the 10 years since Darren O'Day was an Angel.... and the Angels got rid of him.... I think twice..... O'Day in 9 of those 10 seasons has had an ERA of 3.77 or lower. Career ERA of 2.54.

 

To say the bullpens in baseball are volatile is true..... but so is hitting and so is starting pitching. 

 

Before everyone freaks out and disagrees just remember all of us casual baseball fans were screaming this winter to bolster the bullpen. All of us casual fans turned out to be correct.... How could the Angels brass not see what we did and see the obvious?

 

It’s only obvious because you are using hindsight.  Nothing much in baseball is obvious if it involves prediction.  Not even Mike Trout when 25 other teams passed on him in the draft.

[Griffey's Corner]

12 hours ago, tomsred said:

It’s only obvious because you are using hindsight.  Nothing much in baseball is obvious if it involves prediction.  Not even Mike Trout when 25 other teams passed on him in the draft.

Your comment is wrong. The lack of a true closer was obvious even to the dumbest fan. 

 

90% of this message board was screaming all winter about not adding BP arms.

[stanick88]

This is why it makes sense to trade for a rental BP arm that is having a good year. The cost is lower in terms of prospects we would have to give up, and if we do not resign them, then we do not have to risk volatility. If we spend more trade capital (prospects) for someone like  Hand, we risk him not pitching well from year to year.