Angels' Cron shows range

[bloodbrother]

7 walks

 

Lol

[jsnpritchett]

7 walks

 

He had one tonight--so he now has 8, to match his HBP.

[Inside Pitch]

 

Back to Cron, he's making tons of contact and when you have a power hitter that's making contact at that rate, it's something worth getting excited over.  I mean I can't completely ignore the BB rate, but at the same time, when you watch him, it isn't like his AB's are short and he's constantly chasing pitches out of the zone.  Pitchers are just living on the outer half and throwing a lot of offspeed pitches to him.  

 

 

 

Is that even happening?  The pitching outside?   AA pitchers aren't noted for their extreme control, you would think a guy who was touted as having premium plate discipline would lay off those pitches but he's not.    His pull rate on FBs is only 47%, the real issue is his GB rate is upwards of 49% now -- that's Howie Kendrick territory of GIDP machinery.    His FB and LD rate right now leave a lot to be desired in a supposed power hitter his age and of his level of experience in AA.   People are looking at his size and expecting the power to come, but unless he's having some serious carryover from the injuries, maybe he's just a slightly bigger version of his dad, Chris.

 

I'm not writing the kid off, but he's looking more suspect than prospect at this time.  Yeah, the hand eye is good, and he's making contact,.  But I'm pretty sure the Angels were hoping for more than a modern day Shea Hillenbrand when they drafted him and that's where his actual production is profiling -- maybe Lyle Overbay if things broke right.

[jshep]

Ya, I agree with pretty much everything you said. Not totally writing Cron off, but it's not looking particularly good at this point.

Also, Is "modern day Shea Hillenbrand or maybe Lyle Overbay if things broke right" when used to describe the production of a bat only Top 20 draft pick the saddest thing posted on this board in 2013?

I think it's certainly in the running.

[Angel Oracle]

8 HBP.  Silver lining?

His favorite player growing up was Rudy Stein?  

[m0nkey]

2 of his walks were intentional. 

I haven't seen him play at all.  Who knows, maybe he actually has great strike zone awareness and instead of fighting pitches and fouling them off, they end up in play.  That's what I tell myself to keep the hope up

[Second Base]

Again, he doesn't have great strike zone awareness, but it's above average.  As far as I can tell he isn't chasing a ton of pitches.  As far as the power numbers go, I wouldn't put any stock in HR numbers.  He has some prodigious power.  Let's keep in mind, Trumbo hit like 17 HR in AA.

 

The real reason to like Cron is his ability to make contact.  That single tool gives him the chance at putting his power on display more often than pretty much any power hitter in the game.  For whatever reason, Cron's BB totals aren't what was advertised when he was drafted. But when you move past that, you see it doesn't matter much, he's still really dangerous and quite good.

[Angel Oracle]

Is Billy Butler potentially a good comp for Cron?

[Tyler]

Mark Trumbo

[Angel Oracle]

Come to think of it, while Butler has solid power, he is more of a gap to gap hitter than Cron is.

Butler from 2009-2011 was among the AL leaders in doubles, but did also hit 29 HRs in 2012.

 

He's slumping this season though in both areas, and has an under .800 OPS with a barely over .400 SLG%.  

[Inside Pitch]

Come to think of it, while Butler has solid power, he is more of a gap to gap hitter than Cron is.

Butler from 2009-2011 was among the AL leaders in doubles, but did also hit 29 HRs in 2012.

 

He's slumping this season though in both areas, and has an under .800 OPS with a barely over .400 SLG%.  

 

 

For me, it's simple...   I'd like to see him creating more loft and possibly show more pull power.... simply because the games I've seen him in he's not turned on balls he should/could have.   But personal beliefs/desires aside.. he is actually showing signs of power as his doubles tend to indicate -- he's not legging those out..  The HR index for RHBs in his home park is 58, more severe that at any park in MLB, but again, you've got Grichuk at 21 muscling balls over that same fence -- also a RH.   So while yeah, the park is hurting him, there is data that suggests he should be doing better.  If you park adjust and consider his number of FBs that are going for HRs we get a HR/OF figure of 5.9% Vs a league figure of 7.1%.   As a bat only position player, it's not really a good sign that he's being outperformed by the league in a power category.  People like to point at Trumbo's power numbers in AA and say -- see, it's not out of the question it's just the park and not anything the hitter is doing but, Trumbo put up a park adjusted HR/OF rate of 9.5 Vs a league figure of 5.3 while at Arkansas, so there is a reason to be suspect..  

 

As I said previously, I'd like to see him creating more loft than I have seen to date -- and while I don't want to see him go pull happy, it would be nice to see him actually muscle a ball once in a while.

[Second Base]

You know there are quite a few comps we can try to make with Cron and they're all a lot like fitting a square peg into a round hole.  Billy Butler to a certain extent.  Allen Craig to a certain extent.  Paul Goldschmidt to an extent. Corey Hart.  He has similarities to them all, and a number of complete busts as well.

 

I envision Cron eventually being a .275 25-30 HR type of hitter in the majors.  Good enough to be a starting 1B or DH on quite a few teams, not elite because of the position he plays, but certainly respectable. 

[AAAngels]

What a bust Cron is looking like...kid just can't take a walk...awful scouting

[Second Base]

I'm not sure his inability to reach base via the walk was something that could be scouted.  His walked a lot in college and was seen as one of the better, more polished hitters in the collegiate ranks.  Keep in mind,  he's always made good contact, but the low BB totals didn't come until after he was drafted.  

 

Scouts are generally decent at what they do, but down at the amateur ranks, they can't be miracle workers.  You really find out what a player is made of once he reaches the mid levels of minor league baseball, which is why I believe scouts were at fault for their complete inability to properly value Pat Corbin. 

[Inside Pitch]

 

 

Scouts are generally decent at what they do, but down at the amateur ranks, they can't be miracle workers.  You really find out what a player is made of once he reaches the mid levels of minor league baseball, which is why I believe scouts were at fault for their complete inability to properly value Pat Corbin. 

 

Not sure why you keep saying they failed to value him correctly.  They drafted Corbin in the second round, they were willing to go to 450K to keep him from going to Southern Miss, he was the first JC player taken in the draft that year, they knew what they had -- most would argue those were decisions that hinged on quality scouting and maximizing their value..  I've never viewed trading Corbin as a value fail as it related to him, it was a scouting fail as it related to Dan Haren.   Haren was a guy showing declining stuff across the board, the hope there seemed to be that he would be able to pull off a Mike Mussina sort of transformation and evolve into a different type of pitcher while maintaining his excellent control and K rates.

 

FTR, I was actually pretty vocal when that trade went down that Corbin was being underrated by Angels fans -- many of his park adjusted numbers as a 21 year old were on par with where they are now, if there was one area where he was slightly below average and potentially troublesome it was his percentage of fly balls pulled, a seldom considered statistic but one that is often an early indication of a player with fringy stuff who will get lit up.  His GB rate, his K rate on swinging strikes -- all were above the league average while being 2 years younger than the leagues optimal age for that season.  I had been talking him up since seeing him pitch in the instructional league the winter of 09-10.

 

Pat Corbin was always going to be good and people who scratched below the surface saw it coming.   Dipoto's usage of advanced metrics appear to have been in play at the time.  

[Angel Oracle]

I was also following Corbin's progression since his being drafted in 2009, and liked what I was hearing just about all along. 

[Second Base]

IP, you're partially right and I should have clarified.  I believe the Angels scouts ignored signs of decline from Haren, but at the same time were completely selling Corbin short.  I talked to one member of Dipoto's staff who laughed and recalled the Angels and Reagins' staff felt Corbin would be a steady back end starter by his mid-20's, but were hesitant to part ways given their lack of depth at the time.  When Dipoto insisted upon Corbin's inclusion Reagins never really put up a fight.  

 

Haren gave the Angels a year and a half worth of ace type of performance at a low cost and one year of a 4th or 5th starter type of performance.  In return the D-Backs tow and a half years of 4th SP performance from Saunders, a top 10 prospect in Skaggs who will likely give them 5+ years as a mid rotation starter, the same goes for Corbin.  

 

I think that due to the nature of the process and the Angels inability to properly evaluate both Haren and Corbin, they ended up on the severe losing side of that trade.   

[Inside Pitch]

IP, you're partially right and I should have clarified.  I believe the Angels scouts ignored signs of decline from Haren, but at the same time were completely selling Corbin short.  I talked to one member of Dipoto's staff who laughed and recalled the Angels and Reagins' staff felt Corbin would be a steady back end starter by his mid-20's, but were hesitant to part ways given their lack of depth at the time.  When Dipoto insisted upon Corbin's inclusion Reagins never really put up a fight.  

 

Haren gave the Angels a year and a half worth of ace type of performance at a low cost and one year of a 4th or 5th starter type of performance.  In return the D-Backs tow and a half years of 4th SP performance from Saunders, a top 10 prospect in Skaggs who will likely give them 5+ years as a mid rotation starter, the same goes for Corbin.  

 

I think that due to the nature of the process and the Angels inability to properly evaluate both Haren and Corbin, they ended up on the severe losing side of that trade.   

 

 

Basically, Reagins was a dolt.

[bloodbrother]

Mark Trumbo

 

I'm not seeing that comp. Cron has shown to at least not be as much of a K guy as Trumbo, meanwhile Trumbo has shown to be a much higher BB guy, and to Trumbos' credit he continues to improve in that area(he's doing great this season with it)

 

Cron's walk totals are freakin Aybar level which is pathetic. The lack of K's for a power hitter are great, but it's hard to get excited about a "bat only" guy who isn't really doing anything elite with the bat.

[Tyler]

Let Cron's season progress.

[tdawg87]

Let Cron's season progress.

He has well over 900 at bats in the minors and his BB rate has only gotten worse. It's also late June so the "it's early" thing doesn't work. He's not just going to decide to start being more patient in July.

I think if he can maintain his high contact rate through next season then I'll start being a little more high on him. I just don't think his approach will translate well in the bigs. Then again I'm a sofa scout.

[Second Base]

TDawg87, your fears are legitimate.  I do believe Cron has more discipline in him than we've seen, but if it were going to manifest itself in the minor leagues, this would've occurred already.  It's all a learning process but with some guys, you just have to conclude that they won't walk as often (see Lucho, Aybar, Kendrick, Grichuk, Witherspoon). 

 

But there are signs that indicate Cron's abilities may translate into the major leagues.  He isn't all that bad at chasing pitches.  Most hitters with as little walks as Cron has are hacking away at everything, a la Aybar, who's AB's usually only last 3 pitches, but Aybar gets away with it because of his hand-eye coordination.  Cron's similar in that he rarely strikes out, especially for a power hitter, but his AB's also usually last a bit longer.  I think on average he's usually around 5 pitches per AB, which is average. 

 

The power is there too, 21 doubles already, which means he's driving the ball with some authority.  Now what I can't explain is why he has 5 HR and Lindsey and Grichuk both have 11.  The best I can come up with is that Cron's HR's tend to be the towering kind and that those just don't fly as well, especially at Dickey Stephens Park.  But even that's flimsy. 

[Tyler]

The only Angels prospect in the '13 Futures Game.

[red321]

They had to pick someone

[Tyler]

Could have went with everyone's favorite--Taylor Lindsey.