What's your max extension for Trout (if you're Eppler)?

[Angelsjunky]

January is the nadir of the offseason, and pretty much every variation of further roster tweaking has been talked about to a bloody pulp, so might as well dig deep into the Bag of Random Topics. So here it is: Imagine that you are Billy Eppler (or have his ear...not literally), and Arte says "Extend Trout now; here's a blank check, just use your discretion as to what serve's the long-term interests of the franchise and gives us the best chance to be a perennial contender." You call up Trout's agent and he says, "Sure, Mike and I will Skype in from his treehouse in the Pine Barrens."

OK, you sit down with them. What's the absolute highest you'll go? Right now? This is before knowing what Machado and Harper will get, although presumably something like 10/$300-350M and 10/$400-450M+, respectively, maybe more, maybe less (if Harper has another year like 2017, I think he gets 12/$500M). You have the advantage of being able to extend him before those mega-contracts come out, but you also want to make him happy and probably assure him that he'll be the highest paid player in the majors for at least the next half decade.

What's your final offer? I'd do a poll, but I think there are too many subtle variations possible and I want people to get creative, aside from the predictable "lifetime all you can eat at Del Taco."

I'll post this, think about it, and then post my take.

p.s. FYI, Mike currently has 3/$102M left on his contract for his age 26-28 seasons.

[AngelsLakersFan]

About 6 inches

 

 

:-(

[ten ocho recon scout]

6 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

About 6 inches

 

 

:-(

......do you measure from the top or bottom?

And seriously, whos to say where it starts? A turtle isnt just the part that sticks out of the shell, for example.

[OK-LA Angels]

8 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

About 6 inches

 

 

:-(

Well I'm out

[Second Base]

Honestly, the highest I go giving Trout the entire franchise. Here you go, you're the owner. You're a young kid and if you build a winner, I imagine you'll turn a profit for the next 50-60 years of your life.

Bit since that isn't something Billy can do...he's 26, extend him to 40 which is 14 years.....at an AAV of 40 million a year.....

HOLY! 

Thats 560 million dollars! Wow.

[Stradling]

15 years and $500 million. The last five years would be $10 million a season.  The idea being he retired after the first 10 years where he’d make $45 million a year. It would put his tax number at $33 million a year. 

[KDWells]

I'd see after Harper/Machado sign next season if I could try and convince him to tack 10 more years on his deal. Probably end up looking something like 12/420 (Nice.) That is probably a little short of what it would take to get it done though unless Trout is just really loving how 2018 plays out.

[Blarg]

There was discussion that Trout's agent said he wanted a 13 year deal which would have taken Mike to age 35 on his first extension. That's as far as I would go and no more than he makes in his final per year now.

And he would take it because that is more money than he can spend to stay with the team that drafted him and has made him their centerpiece. It is a long three years before free agency and there are enough hard luck stories in the majors about players that never make it to their next contract.

You guys will bid against yourself and use numbers that are just plain silly because it seems like that is the direction baseball is headed but pause and look at what is going on now. Lifetime deals or extreme long term contracts are not the direction MLB is going this off season and I don't believe this is just a one time occurance. I think the trend is spend to the predictable which takes in account natural age regression. 

[wopphil]

12 years would take him through his age 37 season, which is fine by me. At $33 mil a year, which would be a steal for him the way he currently performs, you'd be looking at 12/$396. That would be a good deal. Add another year and $2 mil per season, and you'd be looking at 13/$455. 

I'd be comfortable with anything in that range.

[tdawg87]

4.8 inches 

[Stradling]

21 minutes ago, Blarg said:

There was discussion that Trout's agent said he wanted a 13 year deal which would have taken Mike to age 35 on his first extension. That's as far as I would go and no more than he makes in his final per year now.

And he would take it because that is more money than he can spend to stay with the team that drafted him and has made him their centerpiece. It is a long three years before free agency and there are enough hard luck stories in the majors about players that never make it to their next contract.

You guys will bid against yourself and use numbers that are just plain silly because it seems like that is the direction baseball is headed but pause and look at what is going on now. Lifetime deals or extreme long term contracts are not the direction MLB is going this off season and I don't believe this is just a one time occurance. I think the trend is spend to the predictable which takes in account natural age regression. 

Are you saying you’d only give him 7 more years from the end of his current deal at $33.25 million a year?  Or would you give him 13 years starting now for $33.25 million a season. 

[Angelsjunky]

Well let's be honest: there's no way he's getting less than $500 million guaranteed. That's my guess for what Harper will get, assuming he has another year similar to 2017. If he jumps another step forward--which is possible--he could surpass it.

Here are the components, off the cuff, of what I'd offer:

1) Keep the current 3/$102, although let's call it 3/$105 ($35M/yr) just to simplify things. That's 2018-20, age 26-28.

2) Add 3 years at $40M per year; that's 2021-23, or 29-31.  

3) Add 3 more at $45M per year, or 2024-26, age 32-34.

4) Add 1 more at $50M for 2027, age 35.

5) Add an opt out after 2027 (age 35).

6) Player option of five years at decreasing increments of $5M per year, so 45, 40, 35, 30, 25 for 2028-32, age 36-40.

So that ends up as: 15/$585M. Or something like that.

That's about what I would offer him, although might sweeten it to bring it up to about 15/$625M, and it is also about what I expect him to get.

 

[Stradling]

I don’t actually think he will get $500 million. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

16 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Well let's be honest: there's no way he's getting less than $500 million guaranteed. That's my guess for what Harper will get, assuming he has another year similar to 2017. If he jumps another step forward--which is possible--he could surpass it.

Here are the components, off the cuff, of what I'd offer:

1) Keep the current 3/$102, although let's call it 3/$105 ($35M/yr) just to simplify things. That's 2018-20, age 26-28.

2) Add 3 years at $40M per year; that's 2021-23, or 29-31.  

3) Add 3 more at $45M per year, or 2024-26, age 32-34.

4) Add 1 more at $50M for 2027, age 35.

5) Add an opt out after 2027 (age 35).

6) Player option of five years at decreasing increments of $5M per year, so 45, 40, 35, 30, 25 for 2028-32, age 36-40.

So that ends up as: 15/$585M. Or something like that.

That's about what I would offer him, although might sweeten it to bring it up to about 15/$625M, and it is also about what I expect him to get.

 

$500m might be worth it, but it's really too much. I mean you are paying him to have a HoF career starting from day one of his new deal. That isn't to say that he won't have another HoF career on this deal, only that you are putting the bar really high for what he needs to do to make it worth while. It also adds in a ton of downside risk.

 

 

[OK-LA Angels]

I feel like there really is a bitter sweetness to drafting and bringing up your own superstar in an organization. You almost have to TRY to sign him for forever whether he is worth it or not because he's the face of the organization. Which is why I'll continue to say my nightly prayers that mike trout will continue to perform well as angel into his 50's

[ettin]

12 years, $500M per the Primer article: http://thesportsdaily.com/angels-win/angelswin-com-2018-primer-series-outfield/

As a reminder I put in $/WAR valuations for two different numbers (a very conservative $9.5M and for kicks and even lower $8.5M) to show that in terms of free agent dollars Trout is more valuable that even the $500M number above.

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

Are you saying you’d only give him 7 more years from the end of his current deal at $33.25 million a year?  Or would you give him 13 years starting now for $33.25 million a season. 

What was it about his age of 35 you didn't read in my post?

[Blarg]

51 minutes ago, ettin said:

12 years, $500M per the Primer article: http://thesportsdaily.com/angels-win/angelswin-com-2018-primer-series-outfield/

As a reminder I put in $/WAR valuations for two different numbers (a very conservative $9.5M and for kicks and even lower $8.5M) to show that in terms of free agent dollars Trout is more valuable that even the $500M number above.

Fuck WAR valuations, that is made up bullshit. No player is worth $500 million dollars. Not even Mike Trout. 

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, Blarg said:

What was it about his age of 35 you didn't read in my post?

Sorry I asked you a question.  Dude you are a grumpy old dude at times.  

[Stradling]

Well Eric he’s certainly worth a lot more than your 7 year $232 million extension. 

[gotbeer]

5 years $250 million.  Let someone else overpay for the tail end of Pujols err, Trouts contract.

It would take him to 33.  He's still able to get one more big deal.  And the Angels pay a record for his prime.

[totdprods]

28 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

5 years $250 million.  Let someone else overpay for the tail end of Pujols err, Trouts contract.

It would take him to 33.  He's still able to get one more big deal.  And the Angels pay a record for his prime.

That is one hell of a luxury tax hit. 

 

[mtangelsfan]

Whatever the hell he wants.  You keep the best player in baseball 

[101halo]

4 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

4.8 inches 

Is that the girth measurement? No wonder you're so HUNG up on Trout. 

[101halo]

3 hours ago, Stradling said:

I don’t actually think he will get $500 million. 

Agreed. While I'd pay it if necessary, there's gotta be a consideration for injury. Knocks on every bit of wood in the house. No way you'll find someone to insure that kind of contract, right?