Late Hot Stove Prediction Thread

[Stradling]

Ok, it is the middle of January and most free agents are still available.  So where do you think they will go?  I am sure I will miss a couple but here are my guesses.

Cobb- Cubs

Lynn- Toronto

Arrieta- Braves

Darvish- Angels

Martinez- Red Sox

Hosmer- Padres

Moustakas- KC 

 

Yellich- Braves

 

[Second Base]

I think I agree with all of those except Arrieta.

[wopphil]

I actually think most of these guys will still land contracts at what was expected prior to the beginning of the off-season. I wouldn't be surprised to see Martinez get 5/130 (Red Sox), Darvish 6/140 (Twins or Yankees), Arrieta 5/115 (Cubs), and Hosmer 7/150 (Padres).

[101halo]

I hope I'm wrong, but I really doubt the Angels will spend on any other significant FA this offseason. 

Most of the rest seems very plausible, exception being the Braves grabbing Arrieta and Yelich. They don't seem that close to me, seems early in a rebuild to make moves of that magnitude. Could be wrong, though. 

What is kind of funny is that I think at least half of those signings are bad ideas for those teams, but I find them likely. Ha. 

One random guess just because it'd be so predictable, yet dumb:  Dipoto ponies up to get Yelich and "save his job and offseason."  Not sure if he even has the prospects left to pull it off, just want to throw it out there so I get first cred if he does something that dumb. 

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, 101halo said:

I hope I'm wrong, but I really doubt the Angels will spend on any other significant FA this offseason. 

Most of the rest seems very plausible, exception being the Braves grabbing Arrieta and Yelich. They don't seem that close to me, seems early in a rebuild to make moves of that magnitude. Could be wrong, though. 

What is kind of funny is that I think at least half of those signings are bad ideas for those teams, but I find them likely. Ha. 

One random guess just because it'd be so predictable, yet dumb:  Dipoto ponies up to get Yelich and "save his job and offseason."  Not sure if he even has the prospects left to pull it off, just want to throw it out there so I get first cred if he does something that dumb. 

Dipoto definitely does NOT have the prospects to pull that off. He's emptied that farm in two short years the same way he did ours. I can pretty much already tell you how this plays out if Dipoto remains the way he is.

The Mariners are likely due for one really good season, probably in 2019 when they acquire more pitching, and in the meantime that payroll will inch higher and higher and the farm less and less until ownership finally draws the line and says no more. He'll try to be creative and make a slough of trades the way he does, and it'll generate excitement but he'll end up losing more than he wins until the team collapses in on itself, overburdened by expensive free agents that don't work out but you're still paying, and no minor league help on the way, and it's when that happens that Dipoto will grant interviews and spread word that it was ownership limiting him and a lack of vision that has caused their rift. He'll either leave or be hired and latch on as a consultant or AGM for some other team.

And in the meantime, the Angels make the playoffs every year and will have one of the best farm systems in baseball supplementing the team and driving their overall payroll to a sustainable level.

The Angels will eventually resemble the Cardinals, a team that is competitive every single year and has young kids stepping up big every single year. 

[eligrba]

I agree. 

[floplag]

I think this is a great time for the braves to make some moves, but i dont think they do.  
This might be the weirdest Hot Stove season I can recall with mos teams literally having zero interest in the field of free agents.   I dont see collusion personally, jus tthe impact of the luxury tax becoming a defacto hard cap and salaries reaching a point where it isnt sustainable to pay a good not great player upwards of 20 M AAV.  
I think these players are going to have to take less than they and their agents think they are worth, there simply isnt that much market, supply/demand is down.  
 

[Angel Oracle]

Which sticks it to Bora$$.

Life is good.

[Stradling]

13 minutes ago, floplag said:

I think this is a great time for the braves to make some moves, but i dont think they do.  
This might be the weirdest Hot Stove season I can recall with mos teams literally having zero interest in the field of free agents.   I dont see collusion personally, jus tthe impact of the luxury tax becoming a defacto hard cap and salaries reaching a point where it isnt sustainable to pay a good not great player upwards of 20 M AAV.  
I think these players are going to have to take less than they and their agents think they are worth, there simply isnt that much market, supply/demand is down.  
 

This I agree with, but that’s been the case for awhile now, especially with the projections here on AW.  The only players that have been signed recently that got more than expected were Price and Greinke.  I think most bats have been cheaper than our guesses.  I guess you could say Carlos Santana got paid.  But to me, it just seems that the projections are usually high.  We’ve had people guess that Cozart would get $50 million over three years.  Or JD getting $175 million or Darvish $150 million or upwards of $27 million a season.  I just think we as fans like big numbers and think the flavor of the month is getting that big number. 

[Stradling]

7 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Which sticks it to Bora$$.

Life is good.

Dude it is still not on Boras, if his clients wanted to be signed by now they would be.

[floplag]

23 minutes ago, Stradling said:

This I agree with, but that’s been the case for awhile now, especially with the projections here on AW.  The only players that have been signed recently that got more than expected were Price and Greinke.  I think most bats have been cheaper than our guesses.  I guess you could say Carlos Santana got paid.  But to me, it just seems that the projections are usually high.  We’ve had people guess that Cozart would get $50 million over three years.  Or JD getting $175 million or Darvish $150 million or upwards of $27 million a season.  I just think we as fans like big numbers and think the flavor of the month is getting that big number. 

I for one still dont get the Santana deal, i think that was a case of Phil trying to get something done fast, and they over offered and likely way overpayed, i doubt anyone else was even in that ballpark.  

[totdprods]

9 minutes ago, floplag said:

I for one still dont get the Santana deal, i think that was a case of Phil trying to get something done fast, and they over offered and likely way overpayed, i doubt anyone else was even in that ballpark.  

I think it was a good deal. Phillies have plenty of money to spend and have a pretty cheap team right now. They have a lot of young bats with big upside that will benefit greatly from having an exceptionally steady bat and line-up presence like Santana around them.

[Stradling]

8 minutes ago, floplag said:

I for one still dont get the Santana deal, i think that was a case of Phil trying to get something done fast, and they over offered and likely way overpayed, i doubt anyone else was even in that ballpark.  

Well, they gave $20 million a year to a guy that was the single most consistent free agent.  You know exactly what you are getting and it really wasn’t an overpay.  He is going to be a 3-4 WAR player.  He is going to get on base 35% of the time like he has every year of his career.  They had a number they were comfortable with and they signed him.  It is only an overpay if he stops performing.

[Angel Oracle]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

Dude it is still not on Boras, if his clients wanted to be signed by now they would be.

His outlandish demands though need to be reigned in, and so far the owners are seeing to it.

Asking for 7 years/$210 million for JD Martinez?    When he's had half of a great season, and otherwise rock solid since 2014 but not a superstar?   And that's just one of many.   It made my day when Weave went over him and signed the 5 years/$80 million extension in 2011. 

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

Well, they gave $20 million a year to a guy that was the single most consistent free agent.  You know exactly what you are getting and it really wasn’t an overpay.  He is going to be a 3-4 WAR player.  He is going to get on base 35% of the time like he has every year of his career.  They had a number they were comfortable with and they signed him.  It is only an overpay if he stops performing.

That was a perfect deal for Philly to sign him for, minimizes paying him for possible poor years. 

[Glen]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

Dude it is still not on Boras, if his clients wanted to be signed by now they would be.

I'll never understand the hate for him. Dudes seek him out to do what he does.

[mrwicked]

A little collusion is easier to manage than full blown work stoppage because salaries get too far out of hand.

[ettin]

It's been an odd season for sure but I really feel that larger payroll teams like the Yankees and Dodgers have been operating over the Luxury Tax for a while now and with the severe penalties for third-time offenders under the new CBA the penalties are very high and both of those teams want to reset for the 2018-2019 off-season if they want to hand out extensions (Judge or Stanton) or re-sign their star players (Kershaw). A first-time or even second-time offender gets a much more moderate penalty than a third-time offender as we detailed in one of the Primer Series articles.

Additionally the Tigers and Blue Jays were over in 2017 and they have both cut spending to get under the CBT threshold. The Tigers are going into a full rebuild so they may not spend for a couple of years even. The Giants and Red Sox are over currently but they may try to dive back under in the next year or two as well.

When the biggest spenders are not spending you get a year like this. They will go back to full spending mode next off-season, this year is more of an anomaly.

[Angel Oracle]

3 hours ago, Glen said:

I'll never understand the hate for him. Dudes seek him out to do what he does.

There is that, and the owners contributed to the mess in recent years.    I'm just glad they aren't caving in to him anymore.

No other agent has flaunted such ridiculous demands, like he does.   What makes him so special?

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 1/17/2018 at 8:51 PM, Stradling said:

Darvish- Angels

Do you really believe that or are you just wishing it to be true? As much as I would love it I just don't see it happening.

[Angel Oracle]

25 days until pitchers and catchers report, time is running out.

[Stradling]

7 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Do you really believe that or are you just wishing it to be true? As much as I would love it I just don't see it happening.

Well I guess it’s a little of both.  We hear that the big spenders want to stay under the tax, so if we believe that then they are probably out.  Then we hear the Twins are interested so that’s a possibility.  We’ve heard he likes a six man rotation and the Angels are going to do some modified version of that to help with innings and injuries.  So I think it’s a possibility.  I truly have no idea what team would be the favorite to land him.  

[jordan]

At this point, I don't know that anyone has any idea of what team any free agent will sign with.  There have been next to no rumors much of the off season.  Teams that you would think would be spending (ie. Yanks, Dodgers) aren't spending more than other teams. 

I did see on MLB network in the last day that Arrieta has been working out with Nick Williams from the Phillies and apparently Nick said Arrieta would love to be with the Phillies during the rebuild.  That's the closest to a rumor that I've heard. 

Darvish to the Angels just makes too much sense, with Ohtani and the 6 man rotation, and being SoCal (as he has previously stated he prefers). 

[Ohtaniland]

On 1/18/2018 at 8:00 AM, floplag said:

I think these players are going to have to take less than they and their agents think they are worth, there simply isnt that much market, supply/demand is down.  
 

Like Upton had to do on this very day January 19th 2016 in Detroit. 

[jordan]

10 minutes ago, OHTANILAND said:

Like Upton had to do on this very day January 19th 2016 in Detroit. 

This off season is unlike any other.  I just can't see these owners, after waiting out this entire offseason, to just give in at this point and pay the same type of salaries from previous off seasons.  Not going to happen.