AngelsWin.com Today: Angelswin.com 2018 Primer Series: Corner Infield

[AngelsWin.com]

#HugWatch2018

By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer

Edited by Chance Hevia (Inside Pitch) and Jason Sinner (Dochalo)

As the season crept to a merciful end, Billy Eppler and his team officially kicked into high gear for the off-season where they will have to make a decision regarding the future of 3B, with the exit of Yunel Escobar, and 1B, where it was a tale of two halves for both C.J. Cron and Luis Valbuena.

Both positions are not high priorities to fill when compared to finding a competent 2B, LF (which has already been accomplished by signing Upton), or front-of-the-rotation starter/multi-innings reliever.

However, Eppler may find that free agency or trade might provide him with a more affordable upgrade at either corner infield spot (probably more so at 1B) when compared to those other three primary needs so there could be potential action this off-season at one, or both, of the corners.

In the end Billy does not have to do anything as he could simply enter 2018 with C.J. Cron at 1B, Luis Valbuena at 3B, and Jefry Marte sharing time with the two of them, primarily against left-handed pitchers.

If the Angels really believe that Cron’s and Valbuena’s second half performances were more indicative of their true ability it may be best for Eppler to keep it simple and focus on improving other positions which have been black holes of production over the last three seasons.

The bottom line is that the Angels can potentially stand pat at either or both positions or shuffle the deck a bit and get creative to obtain more consistent production.

First Base

What a difference a half-year makes.

If you had not noticed C.J. Cron and Luis Valbuena (and Jefry Marte!) were pretty awful to start 2017. Their 1st half numbers were dreadful and, to be perfectly frank, disheartening:

Each of them, separately, produced about -0.5 WAR, struggling heavily on offense.

Fast forward a few months to the end of the 2nd half and Dr. Jekyll turns into Mr. Hyde:

Someone must have hit the ‘Easy’ button because the duo of Cron and Valbuena more than tripled their total home run output and more than doubled their RBI totals from the 1st half. Between the two they had a total of 38 HR’s and 113 RBI’s for the year shared between Valbuena’s 48 Games Started (GS) at 3B, 40 GS at 1B, and 2 GS at DH and Cron’s 85 GS at 1B.

Basically when you add them together you have just over a full season’s worth of games with the offensive output you would expect from a bat-first corner infielder.

So what does this mean for 2018?

The reality is that Cron and Valbuena are not as bad as they were in the 1st half but may not be as hot as they were in the 2nd half.

Both of them showed strong ISO numbers in the latter time frame (.275 and .338 respectively) and that is generally a characteristic (extra-base power) that does not vary too much year to year. Cron had a higher average while Valbuena walked more. The latter was also troubled by a very low BABIP which was due in-part to his poor handling of defensive shifts and the focus on hitting for power.

C.J. had a deceptively above average year against left-handed pitchers but virtually all of that wRC+ number sprang from home runs so I am quite hesitant to state that he has solved that historically bad part of his game. Luis could also improve against lefties but it will probably be best to platoon him again based on what happened this season.

Basically both hitters still have warts. They can produce, primarily through home run power, but neither of them has shown consistency at the plate. C.J. is limited to 1B/DH duty only, whereas Valbuena is a 3B, LF, and 1B candidate. Cron’s defense is not bad and in fact may be underrated. Having Luis bounce between the two positions probably messed a little with his defensive rhythm at both spots because he is not as bad as the 2017 numbers indicate.

So, ultimately, you have two guys that can hit RHP pretty well. One, C.J., has better overall splits while the other, Luis, is a bit more versatile on the defensive side.

There is a very real possibility that Billy Eppler will prioritize filling 2B and finding a starter for the rotation in the coming off-season while standing pat with Cron at 1B, Valbuena at 3B, and Marte spelling them against LHP when he can. This would allow Billy to punt any long-term decisions to the following off-season and would save resources to allocate to other needs now and possibly next year.

All that being said, however, there are other routes the Angels can take including trading one or both of them in an attempt to upgrade either corner spot. Collectively 1B produced approximately 0.6 WAR while our hot corner group nearly tripled that number at 1.6 WAR, total. This really points to 1B as the more probable area to improve.

One option that might realistically be on the table is a trade for Brandon Belt from the San Francisco Giants. There have been reports and rumors that Belt and superstar Buster Posey have clashed on the field and possibly in the clubhouse. The Giants, who felt they should have been serious contenders in 2017, may want to shake up the clubhouse dynamic by moving Brandon in trade as they retool for a run next season. Skipper Bruce Bochy was even quoted saying they would “welcome a new look” at first base in 2018.

In the weeks leading up to the trade deadline it was reported, via MLBTradeRumors.com, and Jon Morosi, that the Angels may be a good fit for Belt and that makes sense as the Halos could certainly use another left-handed bat in their lineup.

Brandon is not a premier power-hitter, averaging about 18 home runs over the last three seasons, but he is a good run producer and has an excellent batting-eye. He strikes me as a good choice to hit near the top of the lineup, perhaps in the 2-spot, as he has sported a .380 On-Base Percentage (OBP) paired with a 132 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) from 2015 to the present.

Belt has four more years of contractual control at a very reasonable $14.56M per year in AAV with approximately $68.8M ($17.2M per year) left to pay him on his contract. Near the end of the season he did have a concussion-related injury that put him on the 60-day disabled list so the Angels will have to perform their due diligence in regard to his medicals, if they go down this path, because this is his fourth concussion in eight years.

As Jake Mastroianni wrote, any trade for Brandon will likely involve a Major League replacement, a top tier prospect, and one mid-tier prospect based on the relatively strong value he brings in combination with his reasonable money owed. However, the San Francisco Chronicle’s Bruce Jenkins called the contract “burdensome” so there may be an opportunity for Eppler to extract some value from what appears to be a deteriorating situation for Belt up North.

The truth of Brandon’s value probably lies somewhere in-between those two perspectives, so perhaps a trade of C.J. Cron, Michael Hermosillo, and another mid-tier prospect gets it done or maybe an alternative grouping like Michael Hermosillo, Brennon Lund, Matt Thaiss, and Connor Lillis-White would do the trick.

Beyond Belt the Angels will probably inquire on Freddie Freeman but he seems unavailable despite the fact that the Braves farm system has a lot of top prospects sitting down in the low Minors that are not ready to support the Major League roster. It would take a lot to pry Freeman away but his bat would have a significant impact to our offense if Billy did pull off a miracle.

Other 1B names in free agency include Eric Hosmer, Adam Lind, Carlos Santana, Logan Morrison, Lucas Duda, Mark Reynolds, Yonder Alonso, and Mitch Moreland. An even sneakier, value pick-up could be someone like C Alex Avila who played a competent 1B last season and hit the cover off the ball against RHP. One other option would be Japanese superstar Shohei Otani whom we discussed in Eppler’s Strategy section but every team in baseball will be inquiring on him. If he can play in the outfield, it seems reasonable he could play 1B.

Other than Belt and Freeman mentioned above, the trade market does offer other names like Matt Carpenter, Adrian Gonzalez, Jose Abreu, Joe Mauer, Chase Headley, Tommy Joseph, and Matt Adams that might pique Eppler’s interest if the price is right.

Billy will have to feel the market out as it appears this year’s 1B market will be depressed just like it was last season. There was a glut of supply on the market that, in hindsight, suppressed prices, creating potential bargains.

If Eppler thinks he can trade Cron and move some of the deck chairs around to acquire a bargain in free agency or trade it would not be surprising in the least especially when you consider the pitiful production the team’s first basemen put up in 2017.

High Price to Pay –

• Freddie Freeman
• Miguel Cabrera
• Brandon Belt
• Eric Hosmer

Middle of the Road –

• Matt Carpenter
• Jose Abreu
• Carlos Santana
• Tommy Joseph
• Adrian Gonzalez
• Joe Mauer
• Chase Headley

Bargain Basement –

• Logan Morrison
• Yonder Alonso
• Lucas Duda
• Mark Reynolds
• Adam Lind
• Matt Adams
• Brad Miller

Default Solution(s) –

• Luis Valbuena
• C.J. Cron
• Jefry Marte
• Albert Pujols

Author’s Choice

For reasons we will discuss later in the Final Thoughts article it is my opinion that the Angels will upgrade at 1B by acquiring a hitter than can not only swat RHP well but pairs that ability with a high OBP.

In particular Matt Carpenter strikes me as the right combination of contract length (controllable for 3 years), price (low AAV for the next two years), hitting ability, and on-base skills.

It is possible the Cardinals keep him but he has a fairly high salary for 2018 and beyond that St. Louis would likely want to shed if the rumors are true that they are pursuing a big middle of the order bat. Carpenter would be great hitting lead-off or out of the 2-hole for the Halos.

An alternate, good, backup solution would be Brandon Belt. He too has a strong history of high on-base ability but would cost the Angels a bit more in money and trade chips, making him a strong second choice.

Freddie Freeman and Kyle Schwarber would be my dream choices but both of them will be costly in terms of resources, particularly Freeman.

Third Base

Between Yunel Escobar, Luis Valbuena, and Kaleb Cowart, Angels third basemen collectively produced 1.6 WAR in 2017, ranking them 24th overall for the season. As you can see there is certainly room for improvement.

Rather than rehash the above which applies to Valbuena here in the third base discussion let us play a little game of player blind-comparison.

Remember there is no right or wrong answer here (well maybe a couple of wrong answers) just a pure match-up of the numbers produced by 20 players over the last three seasons that represent the most likely trade and free agent acquisitions the Angels could potentially make mixed with our internal solutions.

Note that there are some sample size issues in terms of PA’s for some of the players on this chart. The answer key is near the end of this article:

The first thing you might notice is that there are a couple of players whose numbers jump off of the page and get your attention.

Players 1, 11, 17, and 19 certainly have stronger overall numbers than the rest of the group. On the flip side Players 3, 12, and 13 leave a lot to be desired and perhaps avoided at all costs.

Beyond those players, though, it is a somewhat even playing field with little variance across the board. Reasonable cases could be made to acquire one of these middle-ground options if the price is right and the Angels would probably walk away sufficiently satisfied with their purchase if they did.

If defense matters most to Eppler then Players 6, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 17, 18, 19, and 20 would be more preferable choices.

Billy has made it clear he wants every position around the diamond to be defensively strong so it is hard to imagine him dumping defense, completely, for offense out of the hot corner. Based on that assumption Players 1 and 16 are probably non-starters for Eppler.

Below is the answer key:

As was presented in the Angelswin.com forum a couple of weeks ago, AW.com member Dochalo pointed out a blind comparison between Mike Moustakas and Luis Valbuena showing quite similar hitting and production profiles over their careers.

Of course Moose is younger and could still break out further but the point Dochalo was trying to make and the question Eppler has to ask himself is this: Is it worth dolling out a 5-year, $85M contract to Moustakas or would the team be better served by having Luis play the hot corner this year for the $8M we have already spent?

In a season where payroll needs to be intelligently applied to maximize value, spending an additional $17M in AAV per season to upgrade by approximately one win does not strike me as efficient. You could just as easily have Valbuena play 3B and sign a quality reliever like Jake McGee or Addison Reed, for less money, and achieve the same total win effect.

High Price to Pay –

• Nick Senzel
• Eugenio Suarez
• Evan Longoria
• Mike Moustakas

Middle of the Road –

• Jedd Gyorko
• Manny Machado
• Josh Donaldson
• Maikel Franco
• Michael Chavis
• Jake Lamb
• Josh Harrison
• Todd Frazier
• Greg Garcia

Bargain Basement –

• Logan Forsythe
• Eduardo Nunez
• Chase Headley
• Derek Dietrich
• Martin Prado
• Asdrubal Cabrera
• Brad Miller

Default Solution(s) –

• Luis Valbuena
• Kaleb Cowart
• Nolan Fontana
• Sherman Johnson

Author’s Choice –

Before I started the Primer Series back in late June if I had been asked which positions the Angels needed to address this off-season I almost assuredly would have mentioned 3B in that conversation.

However, the beauty of doing a deep dive into the teams finances, production results, and options to upgrade, gives you a better appreciation of what Billy Eppler should or shouldn’t do to make the team better.

Although 3B does need to be addressed at some point, the glaring holes of – 0.1 and 0.6 WAR at 2B and 1B, respectively, are far more jarring and in need of attention.

Steamer and Depth Charts agree that Valbuena should produce approximately 1.5 WAR give or take next season, basically matching the output the Angels received this season. It is certainly nothing to write home about but it isn’t nothing either.

It seems likely, barring a good deal for a player like Eugenio Suarez or Jake Lamb for instance, that Luis Valbuena will be our starting 3B on Opening Day 2018, based on current and future needs combined with our more pressing resource allocations at 1B, 2B, and in the rotation/bullpen.

In the next section we will discuss the Outfield.

 

View the full article

[Hubs]

I like the stat heavy articles usually, however, I don't think the numbers in general support the conclusions. Also your top High Price to Pay "3B" is not even mentioned nor is he on your chart.

 

[Chuck]

8 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I like the stat heavy articles usually, however, I don't think the numbers in general support the conclusions. Also your top High Price to Pay "3B" is not even mentioned nor is he on your chart.

 

High Price to Pay –

• Nick Senzel
• Eugenio Suarez
• Evan Longoria
• Mike Moustakas

Middle of the Road –

• Jedd Gyorko
• Manny Machado
• Josh Donaldson
• Maikel Franco
• Michael Chavis
• Jake Lamb
• Josh Harrison
• Todd Frazier
• Greg Garcia

Bargain Basement –

• Logan Forsythe
• Eduardo Nunez
• Chase Headley
• Derek Dietrich
• Martin Prado
• Asdrubal Cabrera
• Brad Miller

Default Solution(s) –

• Luis Valbuena
• Kaleb Cowart
• Nolan Fontana
• Sherman Johnson

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

4 hours ago, AngelsWin.com said:

Miguel Cabrera

No on Miguel, Yes 5 years ago but No now.

[Hubs]

Nick Senzel? Where are his stats? Who is he?

 

[SoWhat]

lol^

[ten ocho recon scout]

Get stanton, move kole to 3B.

[Angelsjunky]

Kole actually looks like a third baseman.

[Chuck]

2 hours ago, Hubs said:

Nick Senzel? Where are his stats? Who is he?

 

Sorry @Hubs but you really shouldn't even comment unless you're informed first. 

Puff. Puff. Pass?

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, Hubs said:

Nick Senzel? Where are his stats? Who is he?

 

totally bro.  google is for bitches.  

[JAHV76]

Great article. Could the Angels make a Logan's Run? Forsythe and Morrison?

[ettin]

32 minutes ago, JAHV76 said:

Great article. Could the Angels make a Logan's Run? Forsythe and Morrison?

Actually this is not an unrealistic scenario JAHV.

If you look at top FanGraphs 'DEF' 2B with 50 minimum PA's for 2017, the top three defensive players are Dee Gordon, Ian Kinsler and Logan Forsythe. The last two only have one year of control left making them particularly attractive in terms of not having to sacrifice top prospects to acquire.

So yeah a Logan's Run is totally within sensibility and reason.

[Second Base]

I think at any rate, Eppler is in good position to score a couple of deals at 1B and 2B. The market (free agent and trade) just happens to be flooded with both. I don't think he'll need to strike quickly and outbid anyone. I think he'll be able to sit back until a couple weeks after the winter meetings (not later because then you're the desperate one) and pick a quality player that wants to play for a contender in So-Cal.

I think LoMo just fits for us, and 2/25 for a player in his prime that can get on base 35% of the time, hits 35 HR's and play quality defense is a steal. And as far as 2B goes, I think someone that's been posturing is going to blink. The Rangers will trade Profar, I'm convinced, but I also get the feeling the Marlins will feel this is their opportunity to sell high and get out from burdensome contracts and they'll be eager to make a deal with Gordon, on the premise that we inherit his contract (not a problem) and send them a decent prospect in return.

[Hubs]

Look I'm not up on every teams top prospect but I've been here a long time. You don't have to agree with my criticism that's fine, but don't call me out as a stoner. That's just rude.

I can google the guy I'm not an idiot, but why should I have to? The writing on this site is top notch and people come here to be informed. I do respect the writer but I can't point out or ask a question? I'm not trolling or being an ass, I generally was thinking of possible acquisitions for 2018 not about prospects. 

If you're going to put a guy as the number one as a possible high cost acquisition, maybe mention he's a top prospect and what it would take to get him. Also, why would the Reds even trade a guy who they've got for six years of control? And what would it cost? 

Also Logan Morrison is not bargain basement, not after last year. Maybe before 2017. 

But these are only my opinions. And you can ban me for having them if you like. 

 

[Warfarin]

51 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I think at any rate, Eppler is in good position to score a couple of deals at 1B and 2B. The market (free agent and trade) just happens to be flooded with both. I don't think he'll need to strike quickly and outbid anyone. I think he'll be able to sit back until a couple weeks after the winter meetings (not later because then you're the desperate one) and pick a quality player that wants to play for a contender in So-Cal.

I think LoMo just fits for us, and 2/25 for a player in his prime that can get on base 35% of the time, hits 35 HR's and play quality defense is a steal. And as far as 2B goes, I think someone that's been posturing is going to blink. The Rangers will trade Profar, I'm convinced, but I also get the feeling the Marlins will feel this is their opportunity to sell high and get out from burdensome contracts and they'll be eager to make a deal with Gordon, on the premise that we inherit his contract (not a problem) and send them a decent prospect in return.

The more I think about it, the more I like LoMo as an option to fill 1B for us.  Santana is the superior player, but he would cost a draft pick and probably require an extra year's worth of a deal at the least.  It's possible LoMo had a fluke season and regresses back to his previous form, but at least if he's just signed to 2 years, that's not a huge risk.

I'd pass on Gordon though.  If Hernandez's price tag is too much, then I'd just as soon rather look at other trade/FA options before Gordon.  

[ettin]

5 hours ago, Hubs said:

I like the stat heavy articles usually, however, I don't think the numbers in general support the conclusions. Also your top High Price to Pay "3B" is not even mentioned nor is he on your chart.

 

So I'm still trying to understand what numbers do not support the conclusions. Perhaps you can clarify because everything i put up there is based in fact. Help?

4 hours ago, Hubs said:

Nick Senzel? Where are his stats? Who is he?

 

Nick Senzel is arguably one of the best 3B prospects in baseball. You can find his stats by going to any reputable baseball informational website such as FanGraphs.com, Baseball-Reference.com, BrooksBaseball.net, or BaseballProspectus.com.

44 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Look I'm not up on every teams top prospect but I've been here a long time. You don't have to agree with my criticism that's fine, but don't call me out as a stoner. That's just rude.

I can google the guy I'm not an idiot, but why should I have to? The writing on this site is top notch and people come here to be informed. I do respect the writer but I can't point out or ask a question? I'm not trolling or being an ass, I generally was thinking of possible acquisitions for 2018 not about prospects. 

If you're going to put a guy as the number one as a possible high cost acquisition, maybe mention he's a top prospect and what it would take to get him. Also, why would the Reds even trade a guy who they've got for six years of control? And what would it cost? 

Also Logan Morrison is not bargain basement, not after last year. Maybe before 2017. 

But these are only my opinions. And you can ban me for having them if you like. 

 

Do you want me to write up every single player or prospect that I mention? My articles are already long enough and adding another 2000 words to explain each one would be counter productive. I was selective and spoke to the players and prospects that I believe are the more likely targets for the Angels. Nick Senzel or Eugenio Suarez is the future for the Reds at 3B and they are likely to part with one of them in trade (probably Suarez). The reason they (the Angels) might try to acquire a prospect is for cost control for team payroll. The team can afford one up and comer on the 25-man roster if they have enough other talent around the diamond.

Thanks for reading!

Edited November 21, 2017 by ettin

[Hubs]

11 hours ago, ettin said:

So I'm still trying to understand what numbers do not support the conclusions. Perhaps you can clarify because everything i put up there is based in fact. Help?

Nick Senzel is arguably one of the best 3B prospects in baseball. You can find his stats by going to any reputable baseball informational website such as FanGraphs.com, Baseball-Reference.com, BrooksBaseball.net, or BaseballProspectus.com.

Do you want me to write up every single player or prospect that I mention? My articles are already long enough and adding another 2000 words to explain each one would be counter productive. I was selective and spoke to the players and prospects that I believe are the more likely targets for the Angels. Nick Senzel or Eugenio Suarez is the future for the Reds at 3B and they are likely to part with one of them in trade (probably Suarez). The reason they (the Angels) might try to acquire a prospect is for cost control for team payroll. The team can afford one up and comer on the 25-man roster if they have enough other talent around the diamond.

Thanks for reading!

I do agree your stats support your conclusion. However, you are making assumptions and cherry picking the stats prove your assumptions. The first part of the article about first base was well written and I enjoyed it. The only thing I don't agree is placing Logan Morrison in the bargain basement category. He's arguably the third best available first base option in the free agent market. He will cost at least 12M per season, which should push him into the next category.

The blind comparison on the third base section was interesting, but complex and that's why I didn't immediately recognize the prospect you mentioned. And I don't need a detailed write-up, but a sentence like "Eugenio Suarez has proven to be a capable third baseman for the Reds over the past few years, but he may be available via trade due to the emergence of prospect Nick Senzel." That's it. Especially if you mentioned them as your most expensive addition. I suppose the blind comparison is what threw me, because I was looking for him there. I had no idea he was that close to the majors after a year and a half in the minors. I also feel like he is likely not attainable at all, just as you didn't mention guys like Kris Bryant or Alex Bregman as options.

The first base side shows that you discuss the high cost additions in detail. I was looking for the same, I suppose.

I originally didn't agree with the conclusion that the Angels don't need to address third base. They have had exactly one great year from third since Glaus left, which was Figgins in 2009. In that season, Figgins had a 7.7 WAR. In the other 12, they've had 22.3 WAR total, or 1.8 WAR per year. I just totaled up the WAR they got from the primary third basemen, not everyone who played third, but I also didn't add negative WAR for those types of guys, so I'd say it's pretty close to an accurate figure.

Getting a capable 3-5 win third baseman would go a long way to improving the team, even if they should be able to get 1.5 from Valbuena, and a 3 WAR third baseman would only net 1.5, I do see the reason behind your conclusion. However, getting a guy who may actually surprise and put up 5-7 WAR from that spot, the way the Dodgers did with Justin Turner is obviously significantly more beneficial.

You also seemed to have used a projection that relies on three year mean average for what Moustakas is capable of giving us for that $17M AAV, which is the worst average to use in comparisons. Mean average is the only average most people know, but median average is the best one to use for baseball season comparisons in my humble opinion. The problem with mean is that by design it weighs all three years equally, which is useful, if they were all close. Since they were not in this case, because he missed almost one entire season (2016). And the 2014 season is before his "breakout" as a hitter, you can't rely on it either. So you're essentially looking at a season where he was at 1.8 WAR and one where he was at 4.4. And projecting a 2.5-3 WAR year. Which he has never had. He's more likely to repeat one of these other two years, so we could get 4.4 WAR from him, or since he is in the middle of his prime, he could do better. Valbuena actually has been closer to a 2.0 win player in two of his last three years, so he's more likely to do that, as well.

I'd also have liked to have seen Matt Carpenter mentioned here as a third base option (*though the Cardinals won't trade him I don't think), or guys like Zack Cozart. I will give you credit for not bringing up Jefry Marte as a full time option at third, who some posters seem to love, even though he was basically a one-trick pony in 2016.

I do like your writing ettin, and I was only trying to start a discussion, offering healthy criticism, but I was laughed at for not knowing the Cincinnati Reds #2 prospect off the top of my head. That's what ticked me off. I used to write some of these off-season previews, so I know how much work it is. And I thank you for it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Chuck]

@ettin what is your best guess as to what the Angels will do for 3B and 1B?

I'm hoping it's one of Santana and Morrisson and sign Moustakas, with a trade for a 2B like Hernandez or Scott Kingery, settling for Gordon or Walker. 

[Vlad27Trout27]

I think what's going to happen is that Billy Keeps valbuena and Marte paired at third, than once our prospects gain more respect following the year, we'll make a trade to get a 3rd baseman. For example,  a guy like Hermosillo + Gatto for Jake lamb.      

[ettin]

1 minute ago, Chuckster70 said:

@ettin what is your best guess as to what the Angels will do for 3B and 1B?

I'm hoping it's one of Santana and Morrisson and sign Moustakas, with a trade for a 2B like Hernandez or Scott Kingery, settling for Gordon or Walker. 

I am about 70%+ confident that Luis Valbuena will be our 3B on Opening Day. We have already sunk the money into him, he is projected to be around 1.5 WAR give or take (matching our total production out of 3B last year), and for one other important reason, which I will discuss in the final installment of the Primer Series.

At 1B it could be a variety of choices. If I had to put money down on a specific set of players I would guess one of Carlos Santana, Logan Morrison, Alex Avila, Matt Carpenter, Justin Bour, or Brandon Belt. Kyle Schwarber or Freddie Freeman are two of my favorite long shots (not unlike a Stanton trade so about 10%, maybe less) but they would require a serious investment (Freeman would probably gut our farm to be honest). Schwarber and Stanton both have similar surplus value but obviously the latter has that pesky, additional money commitment.

If you are forcing my hand I'd say out of free agency Alex Avila. In trade I'd guess Brandon Belt. In fantasy land I'd say Kyle Schwarber. At 3B it's still Valbuena in all likelihood although I'd love Eugenio Suarez or Jake Lamb. As @Dochalo said to me in a message chat the Angels could always upgrade at 3B instead and slot Luis in at 1B but I think that limits us (the aforementioned other reason I will discuss in the Final Thoughts article of the Primer).

 

[Tank]

On 11/20/2017 at 7:27 PM, JAHV76 said:

Great article. Could the Angels make a Logan's Run? Forsythe and Morrison?

forsythe re-signed with the dodgers.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/mlb/la-sp-dodgers-forsythe-20171106-story.html

[ettin]

4 minutes ago, Tank said:

forsythe re-signed with the dodgers.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/mlb/la-sp-dodgers-forsythe-20171106-story.html

Actually his option was picked up and there have been discussions about Barnes playing 2B so it is possible that the Dodgers could move him in trade. Primarily they picked up the option because it was so cheap and they can either keep him or move him in my opinion.

[Tank]

fair enough. it seems like some have mentioned him as being a free agent, and just wanted to clear that up.

[Second Base]

5 hours ago, ettin said:

I am about 70%+ confident that Luis Valbuena will be our 3B on Opening Day. We have already sunk the money into him, he is projected to be around 1.5 WAR give or take (matching our total production out of 3B last year), and for one other important reason, which I will discuss in the final installment of the Primer Series.

At 1B it could be a variety of choices. If I had to put money down on a specific set of players I would guess one of Carlos Santana, Logan Morrison, Alex Avila, Matt Carpenter, Justin Bour, or Brandon Belt. Kyle Schwarber or Freddie Freeman are two of my favorite long shots (not unlike a Stanton trade so about 10%, maybe less) but they would require a serious investment (Freeman would probably gut our farm to be honest). Schwarber and Stanton both have similar surplus value but obviously the latter has that pesky, additional money commitment.

If you are forcing my hand I'd say out of free agency Alex Avila. In trade I'd guess Brandon Belt. In fantasy land I'd say Kyle Schwarber. At 3B it's still Valbuena in all likelihood although I'd love Eugenio Suarez or Jake Lamb. As @Dochalo said to me in a message chat the Angels could always upgrade at 3B instead and slot Luis in at 1B but I think that limits us (the aforementioned other reason I will discuss in the Final Thoughts article of the Primer).

 

I think Avila as a platoon player at 1B with Valbuena is fine but then it requires an investment at 3B, which would be more costly than an acquisition at 1B. Results in the same production but for more money. 

[Erstad Grit]

I love the bargain 1B guys. I'd wager several of those will hit 25+ HR next year and outproduce Santana / Hosmer in value.