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IGNORED

Dave Cameron is right on


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I remember Tony Tavares openly wanting to trade the entire core of the 99 team, I remember the article where he responded to the comment that you couldn't fire the team by loudly asking why not..   There are so many similarities between then and now.  Sad so many current fans seem to have forgotten.  

 

The 99 team didn't have the big salaries this team does, but it did have the salary restrictions Disney ownership placed on them, and the farm system was worse.

 

People don't have to watch or support the team, but they may just have to suck it up and accept a very bad season.

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C - Ianetta/Conger:  Ianetta is cheap and was productive last year when healthy...average defensive C.  We could move him but he won't bring much back.  Conger could be packaged in a deal, maybe something similar to Montero.

 

1B - Pujols: Immovable.  Will be here until the end of his contract .

 

2B - Kendrick: Relatively cheap and above average in most aspects of the game.  He's movable but who takes his place?  Maybe Jean Segur...oops!

 

SS - Aybar: see Kendrick

 

3B - Callaspo:Movable with an unkown in Lucho Jimenez.  Cowart is at least 2 years away

 

OF/DH - Trumbo:  Talented, cheap, and should be a part of the Angels core for years to come...no way you move him. 

 

OF - Trout:  About as untouchable as it gets

 

OF - Bourjos:  He would probably be the one to potentially trade but his lack of track record means minimal return.  Maybe a combo of Bourjos/Conger gets you a mid-level starter.

 

OF - Hamilton:  About as immovable as it comes.

 

Bench - nothing to see here

 

SP - Weaver:  Affordable ace who loves playing in SoCal.  No way you trade him.

 

SP - Wilson:  He's a lefty so someone will want him.  Could be a way to get a SP prospect but will leave a hole in an already resiously depleted rotation.

 

SP - Vargas:  Again, a lefty so he has value but, due to his impending free agency, don't see much coming back to the Angels.

 

SP - Hanson: WIll probably get what we gave for him...a MR arm

 

SP - Blanton:  Trade him for anyone who will take on his salary.  He's hot garbage.

 

SP - Richards:How bleak are the Angels pitching prospects?  I give you the "top".  Could return something decent but the Angels need rotation depth.

 

SP - Williams:  Ugghh.  Maybe a mid-20's pitching prospect

 

BP - I got nothing

 

 

The cupboard is bare, gentlement 

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...

 

 

The cupboard is bare, gentlement 

 

Yep. Nothing left we can do but go dumpster diving on the waiver wire, maybe pick up a middle of the road free agent or two (nothing with draft comepnsatoin attached) and hope for a miraculously good draft this year and next. If we get lucky and planets all align etc. we might squeak into the playoffs during our brief window over the next few years. I don't see us going far even if we do though. 

 

 

By all the planets aligning, I mean "swan song" bounce back years from both Pujols and Hamilton. Trout settling in at somewhere between his Soph. slump and rookie years, and getting very lucky with the few potential prospects in our system working out. That plus Texas, Oakland and Houston all conveniently collapsing a little bit (in a few years Houston will be a legitimate threat IMO)

 

Prognosis for the org is very bleak.

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Trading away a bunch of productive parts makes little sense and won't happen for a several reasons

 

1. Financial.  You are stuck with Hamilton and Pujols.  A huge portion of the mess at this point.  You trade away everyone else and you are still stuck with them.  Making those trades tells your fan base you are not interested in being competitive for 3-4 years.  They don't show up and the team will lose tons of money.  If you maintain a team that seems competitive on paper the fans will continue to come. 

 

2. Talent in the minors.  There is none.  You are not moving guys so a potentially ready prospect needs to cut his teeth?  If you do get several prospects by selling the farm, it's 3-4 years before those prospects are ready yet another 2-3 before they start making a significant impact. 

 

3. Talent on the major league club.  There is some, it's just not performing.  So at any given point they could get their act together and win.  They won't give up on that chance.  2013 may be lost, but slightly below average career seasons from pujols, hamilton, wilson and weaver instead of them playing as they are now, and this team is much different.

 

4.  Commitment to winning.  They made it to the fans when they signed pujols, hamilton, weaver, wilson, and extended kendrick and aybar.  The fans will continue to believe that is can happen if minor adjustments are made in the offseason.  Sign a SP.  Add a couple of bullpen parts.  Tweak, tinker and twist. 

 

5.  They haven't tried the easy route yet.  The easiest thing to do is to fire the coaching staff and try a new one.  If they do it too soon and the new regime can't get this group to play then they lose fan base.  That's why they will likely wait till the offseason to do this.  Then the next group gets two more years of grace to see what happens.  Keeping your money stream intact to some degree. 

 

6.  Injuries.  they have had significant ones this year.  Not entirely to blame, but it has had a significant effect.  Pujols and Weaver in particular but the Burnett, Jep, Aybar and Madson ones have also been big and now Bourjos.  That's enough to sell the power that be for the time being.  

 

7. AW posters vs. the general fan.  We are not the same.  We tend to know more about the team and are the true fanatic.  I bring this up because as much as blowing up the team is talked about on this board, it's probably not the expectation of the general fan and might actually set the franchise back even further.

 

8.  No guarantees.  Even if you do sell and get a bunch of prospects in return, there is no guarantee on that group turning the team around.  Prospects are still difficult to predict.  There is still a decent albeit declining chance that this group can win with a few adjustments.  If you sell, you don't really have that chance at all and there is no guarantee that a group of unknowns is going to make anything better in 3-4 years.  It could be 10 if they don't work out. 

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Here is the bottom line why this team cannot rebuild.

Assume a rebuild process takes 3 years.

 

Pujols is 3 years older, and more expensive.

Hamilton is 3 years older.

Trout is 3 years more expensive, post arbitration.

Weaver and Wilson are 3 years older and still on the books as well.

 

This team probably wont be any good until after the Hamilton contract is up. Our payroll is probably going to stay in the same area as now, simply because our revenue streams seem pretty locked in with Art just signing the new tv deal. There is no new influx of money that will cover the Pujols / Hamilton contracts. 

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