Lock Trout Down

[Ohtaniland]

2 minutes ago, ettin said:

Really when you think about it he has the best of both worlds. Live out of his Newport home from April thru October (hint, hint) then go spend the holidays with his family in New Jersey, go hunting, and watch football in the Winter. Spend about three months with the extended family then you're back out to the Best Coast the other 9 months of the year.

That’s better.

[Fresh Catch Trout]

Has this come up with Eppler or the media at all over the winter? I scour but haven't found a lot on the web about it. My friends in the Angels circle are very optimistic that this is going to happen and Mike is going to stay with how they've build around him.

[arch stanton]

Nothing is going to happen until after the Harper FA sets the market next winter 

[Taylor]

43 minutes ago, Fresh Catch Trout said:

Has this come up with Eppler or the media at all over the winter? I scour but haven't found a lot on the web about it. My friends in the Angels circle are very optimistic that this is going to happen and Mike is going to stay with how they've build around him.

But do they play Xbox with Scott Kazmir? 

[Docwaukee]

For the next 3 years, Trout will make 34.1 mil per.  He's entering his age 26 yo season which brings him through age 28.  Which is 102.3 mil.  

Let's say he's worth 450 mil over the remainder of his career.  Why not just spread that out over 13 or 14 years to take him through age 41 or 42?  That's 16 years at 552.3 mil or 34.5 per year.  At that point, it's more about the total amount as opposed to the AAV because you're gonna have him through the end of his career.  So just tack years on and help your CBT number.  

The numbers in that previous paragraph seem absolutely ludicrous but are they?  The real question is whether that money is even close to worth it for one player.  

Of that 16 years, the next 8 likely have surplus value.  It's the final 8/275 from age 34-41 where you have to consider what you are getting.  Current value of $/WAR is 10mil per.  So that's 55 WAR.  Will he produce 55 WAR over the next 16 years?  Personally, I think he'll avg. 7 WAR per over the next 8 years so you are already there.  If you avg 3 WAR over the next 8, that's another 24 WAR.  For a total of 80 WAR over the life of the deal.  That would put him at 134 for his career.  Or 6th all time.  It's hard to imagine him not getting to that with the current pace he's on.  

Mays put up 47.2 WAR from age 34-42.  
Mantle's career ended early because of his alcohol abuse but still avg'd over 3 WAR per in his age 34-36 seasons (his final 3)
Aaron had 38.2 WAR from age 34-32.  

The other thing that I know is on everyone's mind is that he'll age and decline like Pujols because we are seeing that right in front of us.  But I don't think that will be the case.  I think he'll decline more in line with the other inner circle HOF players.  Hell, there are players of way lesser caliber putting up 3 and 4 WAR seasons at age 34 and above.  I mean, look at Beltre.  

Whatever money over whatever number of years it takes to lock Trout up for the rest of his career will be worth it.  And that's not even taking into account the dollar value he bring for being mike Trout and the general value to the franchise.  

 

[arch stanton]

If you look at the recent history of players who started playing 150+ games at a very early age you see the ones with PED questions like Rodriguez (Alex or Ivan) or Manny holding up ok through the mid-30s but the ones we assume to be clean like Albert or Andruw Jones breaking down in the early 30s. Just something to ponder as he ages

Edited January 6, 2018 by arch stanton

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

If you look at the recent history of players who started playing 150+ games at a very early age you see the ones with PED questions like Rodriguez (Alex or Ivan) or Manny holding up ok through the mid-30s but the ones we assume to be clean like Albert or Andruw Jones breaking down in the early 30s. Just something to ponder as he ages

those players aren't Mike Trout.  You can throw aging curves out the window as it relates to him.  I have no idea if he's going to hit .250/.375/.525 at the age of 38, but I like his chances as much as I like those chance for Nellie Cruz or Adrian Beltre.  

[arch stanton]

One that you mentioned served a PED suspension and the other has a testosterone exemption. I'm not saying he can't handle the workload just that if he does he's bucking the trend for clean players with a ton of early mileage

[jordan]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/griffke02.shtml

Just looking at Griffey Jr, who most assume took no PEDs, he started at a young age and had more missed games than games played for much of the second part of his career.  But the point is moot as someone will offer Trout a 10+ year contract, and I’d like it to be the Angels. 

 

P.S. I was trying to embed his stats but I’m a goof.  Not sure why it’s not working. 

 

[arch stanton]

Don’t get me wrong. I hope he gets the contract and is an Angel for life. I just think we shouldn’t expect an elite center fielder or even a full time outfielder who gets 650 PAs in the back half 

[Blarg]

Let's say he's worth 450 mil over the remainder of his career.  Why not just spread that out over 13 or 14 years to take him through age 41 or 42?

No no no no no no no! This is not the steroid era and Trout will decline like normal human beings do. If you think Pujols is in bad shape you are asking a player that has twice the wear and tear to be productive during that career nose dive from 35 on. 

Get a grip,  it's not that I don't want Trout to retire as a lifelong Angels, but there is a point where you are ruining the ballclub with a contract no player can reasonably fulfill. Hopefully Trout has enough sense to structure his contract for a reasonable length and compensation so he doesn't end up the last five years with Pujols situation where fans just want him to go away and let just about anybody take his place. 

[Ohtaniland]

I think Trout is going to wait and see what happens with Harper and Machado. He’s going to make his own personal assessment on how the Angels organization is doing as a whole. He’s going to also listen to his family and rely on his agent. The one thing that we do know is that he married his high school sweetheart which makes him pretty loyal. 

[Jay]

7 hours ago, Dochalo said:

those players aren't Mike Trout.  You can throw aging curves out the window as it relates to him.  I have no idea if he's going to hit .250/.375/.525 at the age of 38, but I like his chances as much as I like those chance for Nellie Cruz or Adrian Beltre.  

ok...

I hope Trout wants to remain an Angel but if not, he should go.

[Angels#1Fan]

Just give him a blank check..lock him up..M500, M600, a Billion..hell, give him the franchise..who cares. Just do it so the hand wringing will stop.

[Stradling]

Any of you feel a lot more confident that he will resign based on What Eppler has shown to be able to do?

[vladdy#27]

I don't know if this is possible, but could the Angels manipulate the luxury tax dollar amount in a long term deal for Trout? Similar to what Doc was saying, but a little different.

So say Trout agrees to a 12 year contract at 34.5M average annual value. That takes him through his age 40 season. Giving him a total of 22 years in the big leagues. A total career earnings in salary alone of over 550M. Now here is where the manipulation comes in, we add 2-3 years of the major league minimum. If it's 3 years his average annual value of 34.5M drops to 27.7M. Basically his 12 year/414M deal turns into 15 years/415.5M. Saving the Angels close to 7M against the luxury tax. This benefits Trout because it gives the Angels a tiny bit extra wiggle room and he can simply retire following the 12 year contract, walking away from a measly 3 years/1.5M

[Docwaukee]

5 hours ago, Blarg said:

Let's say he's worth 450 mil over the remainder of his career.  Why not just spread that out over 13 or 14 years to take him through age 41 or 42?

No no no no no no no! This is not the steroid era and Trout will decline like normal human beings do. If you think Pujols is in bad shape you are asking a player that has twice the wear and tear to be productive during that career nose dive from 35 on. 

Get a grip,  it's not that I don't want Trout to retire as a lifelong Angels, but there is a point where you are ruining the ballclub with a contract no player can reasonably fulfill. Hopefully Trout has enough sense to structure his contract for a reasonable length and compensation so he doesn't end up the last five years with Pujols situation where fans just want him to go away and let just about anybody take his place. 

sometimes you just want to be a contrarian and you don't actually pay attention to what is being written.  

I actually wrote in there that comparing him to pujols is a mistake.  I also wrote in there that he's worth 450mil starting from age 29.  What difference does it make how long the contract is.  

Fine.  Pay him 450 mil over 9 years instead of 13.  That's smart.  

Spend a little time taking a look at some aging curves for inner circle guys who aren't from the steroid era.  Aaron.  Mays.  Williams.  Robinson.  

I also mapped out how he could reasonable fulfill the contract relative to today's standards.  

Get a grip on what it's going to take to keep him.  The largest contract in professional sports history.  

[Troll Daddy]

Paying Trout $50M per season over 9 nine years is ludicrous imo ... as DocH has suggested. 

I guess will see what Harper/Donaldson/Machado gets next off season. I think owners are starting to wise up to these ridiculous contracts. 

[Ohtaniland]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

Any of you feel a lot more confident that he will resign based on What Eppler has shown to be able to do?

Well all signs are positive but winning is the bottom line. We have no idea how Cozart will handle changing positions or how well 35 year old Kinsler will perform in Anaheim and we have no idea how all of our injured pitchers will rebound. Ohtani is an exciting talent but at this point he’s a MLB wild card. This ride could be amazing but there’s a lot of things that could go south. Is Albert really healthy enough to play first base on a regular basis. Is our bullpen up to the challenge. The farm albeit mostly raw talent is looking much better so kudos to Eppler for that. Hoping for the best.

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

sometimes you just want to be a contrarian and you don't actually pay attention to what is being written.  

I actually wrote in there that comparing him to pujols is a mistake.  I also wrote in there that he's worth 450mil starting from age 29.  What difference does it make how long the contract is.  

Fine.  Pay him 450 mil over 9 years instead of 13.  That's smart.  

Spend a little time taking a look at some aging curves for inner circle guys who aren't from the steroid era.  Aaron.  Mays.  Williams.  Robinson.  

I also mapped out how he could reasonable fulfill the contract relative to today's standards.  

Get a grip on what it's going to take to keep him.  The largest contract in professional sports history.  

He's not worth $450 million. That is stupid money, stupid for the Angels to commit to one play and stupidly greedy for a player demand. 

You are so wound up in sportswriters narratives that are based on some hype that salaries can be unrealistically out of balance. There is a value ceiling to every person and close to half a billion for an athlete is well past that. 

If that is really what it requires to sign Trout to an extension, fuck him and welcome Jo Adel to the majors. 

And I've looked at aging curves and four players out 18,856 is shit odds that Trout makes it number five. 

Edited January 6, 2018 by Blarg

[Ohtaniland]

11 minutes ago, Blarg said:

He's not worth $450 million. That is stupid money, stupid for the Angels to commit to one play and stupidly greedy for a player demand. 

You are so wound up in sportswriters narratives that are based on some hype that salaries can be unrealistically out of balance. There is a value ceiling to every person and close to half a billion for an athlete is well past that. 

If that is really what it requires to sign Trout to an extension, fuck him and welcome Jo Adel to the majors. 

And I've looked at aging curves and four players out 18,856 is shit odds that Trout makes it number five. 

 

[tdawg87]

21 minutes ago, Blarg said:

He's not worth $450 million. That is stupid money, stupid for the Angels to commit to one play and stupidly greedy for a player demand. 

You are so wound up in sportswriters narratives that are based on some hype that salaries can be unrealistically out of balance. There is a value ceiling to every person and close to half a billion for an athlete is well past that. 

If that is really what it requires to sign Trout to an extension, fuck him and welcome Jo Adel to the majors. 

And I've looked at aging curves and four players out 18,856 is shit odds that Trout makes it number five. 

It's not your money. If Arte is willing to pay it he will. Doesn't matter whether you think he's worth it or not.

[Stradling]

But I did like the inclusion of “fuck him”. 

[tdawg87]

Yeah that was pretty neat Blarg. 

"Fuck him"

-Blarg referring to Mike Trout in 2018.

[Ohtaniland]

26 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Yeah that was pretty neat Blarg. 

"Fuck him"

-Blarg referring to Mike Trout in 2018.