Lock Trout Down

[Troll Daddy]

On 11/26/2017 at 11:17 AM, Angelsjunky said:

The only way to keep Trout is:

1. Show him that the Angels are on the right path, both in the short and long-term. This doesn't mean "win now at all costs," but nor does it mean "wait and see." It is the right balance - one, I think, Eppler might be able to find. 

2. Wait until Machado and Harper get their big pay days, then offer him more. Assuming he's healthy and plays well in 2018, Harper is going to get the biggest contract in baseball history, possibly as much as 12/$500MM. So for Trout we're probably talking at least 12/$550MM - that's almost $46MM a year. If Harper struggles in 2018 and gets less, say 10/$400MM (which is about lowest I could see him signing for), Trout is still likely to get 12/$500MM.

Now Trout might want to wait three years, see how the Angels develop and then test the market. But I don't think so. I think once he sees the Machado/Harper money, he'll want to lock himself in. If he can get 12/$550MM after 2018, why wait another couple years to get maybe a few million more? The only reason to do that would be if he doesn't like the direction of the club, which makes 2018 an important year. I think Eppler knows this, so may surprise us with a biggish move or two to improve the team now.

But even then there's the opt out clause. Trout might be more likely to extend after 2018 if the Angels give him an opt out after maybe 5 years, so after the 2022 season when he turns 31 and could still sign a 10-year contract with the Yankees or Phillies if he wants. 

Why would the Angels want to pay Trout 12/$550M?

I would hope they wouldn’t 

[Ohtaniland]

2 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Why would the Angels want to pay Trout 12/$550M?

I would hope they wouldn’t 

I’m glad you said it. I love when people can just tell Arte how much he should spend. He’d be out of business if he followed through with half of the recommendations posted here. 

[Chuck]

On 11/26/2017 at 7:42 AM, Calzone said:

Trout just recently bought a 300 acre property in NJ near his parents.

“It’s just where he wants to be,” Trout’s father, Jeff Trout, said. “He’s a family guy. He loves his [three-legged] dog. He’s close with his mother. He has a great group of friends here he’s had since he was a little kid. He’s very tight with his brother and sister and he loves his niece and nephew. He grew up fishing and hunting and clamming these woods and these waters.”

Good for Trout...

I'm pretty sure all of these high paid players have a nice house where they grew up and where their home team plays. 

Nothing really to see here..

[Ohtaniland]

Just now, Chuckster70 said:

Good for Trout...

I'm pretty sure all of these high paid players have a nice house where they grew up and where their home team plays. 

Nothing really to see here..

Yes I pointed that out. Trout will probably have six or more homes at some point.

[Inside Pitch]

3 hours ago, Calzone said:

Well they could start the season with Trout, Pujols, Upton, Simmons, Maldonado, Valbuena, Cron, a low cost second baseman to go along with some platoons while staying away from Stanton, Moustakas, Hosmer and still get 3 million fans. So yes they’re buying it. I think that the starting pitchers will make or break this team regardless. They might surprise us. 

The agenda...  always the agenda...    

[Chuck]

1 minute ago, Calzone said:

Yes I pointed that out. Trout will probably have six or more homes at some point.

Yeah I just find it funny when people assume a player wants to play closer to home, when in reality they're not able to spend much time at "home" because of the logistics from home to the ballpark. 

Let's say he played for the Phillies or Mets/Yankees. His commute after the game to his 300 acre house in Jersey would be shit, so I'm sure he'll stay in a hotel. 

That said, his house on the beach in Laguna from the ballpark in Anaheim is a pretty easy commute. 

[Ohtaniland]

5 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

The agenda...  always the agenda...    

Hey the Angels have a very solid fan base. They also have a very soft media with a hands off approach. Even the LA Times stays clear most of the time. It’s all good and I’m looking forward to spring training. 

[Dtwncbad]

24 minutes ago, Calzone said:

I’m glad you said it. I love when people can just tell Arte how much he should spend. He’d be out of business if he followed through with half of the recommendations posted here. 

Except you have no idea what you are talking about.  No Arte woukd not be out of business.  Arte would increase his net worth every single year even if he had a $300m a year payroll.  Annual cash flow and building wealth are not the same thing.  But now we are way out of your scope so never mind.

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Calzone said:

Hey the Angels have a very solid fan base. They also have a very soft media with a hands off approach. Even the LA Times stays clear most of the time. It’s all good and I’m looking forward to spring training. 

I'm sure you are....  With ST you'll have a new opportunity to suck the life out of anyone's enjoyment of Angels baseball....    

[Ohtaniland]

7 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Except you have no idea what you are talking about.  No Arte woukd not be out of business.  Arte would increase his net worth every single year even if he had a $300m a year payroll.  Annual cash flow and building wealth are not the same thing.  But now we are way out of your scope so never mind.

Lol @ a $300M payroll. I think even Arte would pee in his pants at your post.

 

[Ohtaniland]

4 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I'm sure you are....  With ST you'll have a new opportunity to suck the life out of anyone's enjoyment of Angels baseball....    

It’s funny that you mention enjoyment when all I read here is about how badly the Angels need to spend hundreds of millions to improve the team that they supposedly enjoy watching. I’m much more a conservative and wish they would stay on course and build through smart trades and the draft. 

 

[Stradling]

36 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

The agenda...  always the agenda...    

Because “selling” 3 million seats is the same as having actual humans sitting in those seats spending a bunch of money.  

[Ohtaniland]

9 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Because “selling” 3 million seats is the same as having actual humans sitting in those seats spending a bunch of money.  

But I do remember Arte saying that the people in the upper cheap seats don’t spend money. 

[Hubs]

The economics of a deal for Trout and Harper will be such that changes the landscape. In 2001, the Rangers signed A-Rod for the then record 252 Million. There have only been 8 other contracts that exceeded 200 M. Of those, you can say that 1/3 were bad contracts, 1/3 okay, and 1/3 produced value. The best of these 9 deals is A-Rod's first deal, Joey Votto, and Kershaw's. The worst is likely to be Miguel Cabrera, but right now it would be Prince Fielder's. Pujols has to be next from the bottom, or A-Rod's second deal goes there. Stanton and Cano would be in the middle.

1. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins	$325 million, 13 years	2015-27
2. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees	$275 million, 10 years	2008-17
3. Alex Rodriguez, Rangers	$252 million, 10 years	2001-10
4. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers	$248 million, 8 years	2016-23
T-5. Albert Pujols, Angels	$240 million, 10 years	2012-21
T-5. Robinson Cano, Mariners	$240 million, 10 years	2014-23
7. Joey Votto, Reds	$225 million, 10 years	2014-23
8. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers	$215 million, 7 years	2014-20
9. Prince Fielder, Tigers	$214 million, 9 years	2012-20

[Dtwncbad]

43 minutes ago, Calzone said:

It’s funny that you mention enjoyment when all I read here is about how badly the Angels need to spend hundreds of millions to improve the team that they supposedly enjoy watching. I’m much more a conservative and wish they would stay on course and build through smart trades and the draft. 

 

They don't have to choose between spending to fill holes now to improve for 2018/2019 and build for the future.

That's how Free agency is responsibly used.  Yes free agency can hurt you.  But it is an excellent tool to ADD talent to your organization immediately.

There is literally no reason to not be aggressive to ADD talent for 2018.  The money is there.  Winning even one additoonal game can be the difference between postseason and no postseason.

And none of this has to do with building for the future.  It's not one or the other.

 

[Hubs]

Bad contracts were given out regardless of age, so the fact that Harper and Trout will both be young when they sign their mega contracts, is not that relevant.

But some of the numbers that I've seen on this thread or similar ones just are insane.

The thing to look for is the AAV of these contracts.

Listed that way, it's

1. Cabrera, 31M AAV

2. Kershaw, 30.7M AAV

3. A-Rod, 27.5M AAV

4. A-Rod, 25.2M AAV

5. Stanton, 25M AAV

T6. Pujols, 24M AAV

T6. Cano, 24M AAV

8. Fielder, 23.77M AAV

9. Votto, 22.5M AAV

When A-Rod Signed, the next highest contract was around 12-14M AAV. He blew that out of the water by at least 11M. Though Derek Jeter later signed an extension that off-season that brought him to just under 19M AAV.

Still, to see a 30% increase over the next highest AAV would put Harper at 400M, except I doubt he gets that. He may approach a 40M AAV, but I'd say closer to 35M. 350/10 sounds low, but maybe someone gives him 420/12?

Trout is likely to be the first 400M man, but only if he say waits until Harper signs, and then the Angels exceed his contract starting with 2019. He starts making 34M a season this next season, over the next three years. If he signs a new contract after next year at 12/450, I could see that. That would only really be $380 M over 10 additional years. The Angels know it's coming and definitely want him to stay, as there is no way they can make up that production going forward.

 

[Ohtaniland]

19 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

They don't have to choose between spending to fill holes now to improve for 2018/2019 and build for the future.

That's how Free agency is responsibly used.  Yes free agency can hurt you.  But it is an excellent tool to ADD talent to your organization immediately.

There is literally no reason to not be aggressive to ADD talent for 2018.  The money is there.  Winning even one additoonal game can be the difference between postseason and no postseason.

And none of this has to do with building for the future.  It's not one or the other.

 

My point is that Arte and Eppler don’t need your help to constructing the team. When opening day comes you cheer for the team that’s on the field. You can spend all the time you want flinging trade ideas and forecasting free agent acquisitions but you get what you’re gonna get. 

[Dtwncbad]

16 minutes ago, Calzone said:

My point is that Arte and Eppler don’t need your help to constructing the team. When opening day comes you cheer for the team that’s on the field. You can spend all the time you want flinging trade ideas and forecasting free agent acquisitions but you get what you’re gonna get. 

Uh that doesn't come anywhere close to your "point" or "points" in general across many threads.  And if we all accepted "we get what we get" then there would be no need for a discussion board.

But nice try.  You are a clown act.

[Ohtaniland]

19 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Uh that doesn't come anywhere close to your "point" or "points" in general across many threads.  And if we all accepted "we get what we get" then there would be no need for a discussion board.

But nice try.  You are a clown act.

So you’re telling me that Arte and Eppler rely on your perspective. Ok thanks. 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Calzone said:

It’s funny that you mention enjoyment when all I read here is about how badly the Angels need to spend hundreds of millions to improve the team that they supposedly enjoy watching. I’m much more a conservative and wish they would stay on course and build through smart trades and the draft. 

Cut the bullshit. 

You wanted to pay big money to a proven mediocrity at 1B (Hosmer), because -- "he's a gamer".    You also wanted to throw money at CC Sabathia.    Something about glass houses and casting stones.  

Not sure who you think you're fooling but whatever floats your boat.
 

[Dtwncbad]

12 minutes ago, Calzone said:

So you’re telling me that Arte and Eppler rely on your perspective. Ok thanks. 

Nobody said that ever.  You are squirming.

[Ohtaniland]

5 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Cut the bullshit. 

You wanted to pay big money to a proven mediocrity at 1B (Hosmer), because -- "he's a gamer".    You also wanted to throw money at CC Sabathia.    Something about glass houses and casting stones.  

Not sure who you think you're fooling but whatever floats your boat.
 

I like Hosmer because he’s still young and he’s actually won on the big stage. I mentioned him once but if he’s asking for too much money then I’m totally against it. I like Sabathia on the cheap and only for one season. I certainly wouldn’t try to construct the team for Eppler because he has a better gauge on the parameters he’s given. 

[Inside Pitch]

 

49 minutes ago, Calzone said:

My point is that Arte and Eppler don’t need your help to constructing the team. When opening day comes you cheer for the team that’s on the field. You can spend all the time you want flinging trade ideas and forecasting free agent acquisitions but you get what you’re gonna get. 

Oh the hilarity...       

Yes -- everyone please take a page out of Calzone's book and cheer for the team regardless of who is out there..   In other news -- North Korea asks the world to step up their human rights game.

 

 

 

 

[ettin]

2 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Yeah I just find it funny when people assume a player wants to play closer to home, when in reality they're not able to spend much time at "home" because of the logistics from home to the ballpark. 

Let's say he played for the Phillies or Mets/Yankees. His commute after the game to his 300 acre house in Jersey would be shit, so I'm sure he'll stay in a hotel. 

That said, his house on the beach in Laguna from the ballpark in Anaheim is a pretty easy commute. 

Really when you think about it he has the best of both worlds. Live out of his Newport home from April to October (hint, hint) then go spend the holidays with his family in New Jersey, go hunting, and watch football in the Winter. Spend about three months with the extended family then you're back out to the Best Coast the other 9 months of the year.

[Chuck]

2 minutes ago, ettin said:

Really when you think about it he has the best of both worlds. Live out of his Newport home from April to October (hint, hint) then go spend the holidays with his family in New Jersey, go hunting, and watch football in the Winter. Spend about three months with the extended family then you're back out to the Best Coast the other 9 months of the year.

My thoughts exactly. He also has the luxury of snowbirding at his house in So. Cal if he gets tired of the shitty winter weather in Jersey.